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Hornbeliever

Burnt Ends
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About Hornbeliever

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  1. He was also my stats professor in late 90s and I remember he said that he most definitely did not prove OJ was innocent but that the sample that was proclaimed as a million to one was more like 75,000 to one. I remember he said how masterful a job OJ’s lawyers did because they kept proving how wrongly inflated the odds were and how clearly wrong the defense was….all so that no one would notice how ridiculous 75,000 to one (still way guilty).
  2. Many days over the past seven years, I’ve eaten lunch somewhere near 10 and between Heights Blvd and the Beltway (I don’t cross as Niko Niko is my limit). I also love Vietnamese. how did i not know about Roostar? Will need to check out next week.
  3. @Gil Bang doesn’t know shit about fuck in regards to VPN and yet likely knows more than me….so this is a helpful chat he bumped. i want to watch Astros games in Houston. Do these things work on iPhones? Do VPN’s cause glitches or other downsides to the phone?
  4. Sounds great and this is our plan starting in a couple of years. If renting, how did you find your house to rent for that long stretch?
  5. I started the ag exemption process last year as a first time beekeeper. Here was my first year journey: April 1, 2023: hired someone to set up three hives at my ranchito. may 2023: two hives looked to be thriving so put honey supers (small boxes for bees to make honey and not to make more bees) on top of the regular boxes. July 2023: 1 hive produced 30 lbs of honey so I harvested all of it. 1 hive had some honey but not enough for me to want to take. 1 hive just looked weak so figured it was dying. Dec 2023: hive that was strongest got wax moths so died and I had to torch it all. Weak hive now looks ok. Middle hive still going ok. April 2024: the two hives survived the winter and were so full of bees that I added honey supers on both. Also, three hives being installed this week by same guy who set up my first three. it was a lot of fun to learn a bunch and hope my hives live and thrive this year.
  6. I found Hudson house very average. But I also wasn't that impressed by BNC so my taste buds must suck
  7. My first foray into a utensil drawer. I only used scrap stuff because it was on a whim. I will buy more finished plywood and resize some stuff when I replace this now that I know it was fun to build.
  8. Hornbeliever

    Pizza

    Via 313 is legit. No decrease in quality from Austin move.
  9. Just had a good experience (fence for clarification) with @T-shirt Sip in Austin.
  10. Anyone watched Criminal Record? Halfway through and don’t know if I like it or don’t like it…so I guess either way I would out it at not fantastic.
  11. Can you spoiler if her critique means we are taking BTC to the moon? If not, all her logical thoughts are dead wrong.
  12. Hornbeliever

    Indian

    Just tried Himalayan on Hillcroft and 59 and it was quite good. Any other worth trying?
  13. That’s a great idea (monte Carlo simulations). I need to build that into my little model but that requires dusting off my skillzzzz which I might have lost in my twenties. This is how old I am and CSB: my first investment banking internship in NYC was a summer of building Monte Carlo simulations on bankrupt regional cellular firms and running simulations on how many people in America would buy cell phones and then turn around and buy all-you-can use bandwidth plans versus limited minute and text plans. Difference in those assumptions for all these little shitty companies was insolvency versus enough life to be bought out by a big boy. A fuck ton of money was being made in buying their junk debt at 25 cents on the dollar and then betting on that junk co. being bought out by someone like AT&T where the bond would now be rated at the purchasers underlying rating.
  14. I just turned 48 and feeling I’m 5-6 years out from retirement so I built out a retirement excel model for myself. I say damn does what you assume for inflation and for average investment return mess with the numbers. The difference between inputting 3 and 4% inflation is huge, as is selecting between 6 and 7% investment return. Compounding, yo. Anyways, yall put in similar ranges? Or more conservative/aggressive? I said I’d die at 87, 4% inflation and 7% investment return.
  15. What about a deep dive on Super Blue Chips? And on how many calories four Arby's sandwiches have in them?.......sorry, just saw those are covered by someone elsewhere. I wish there was some easy to understand metric that amounts to something like stars per win during their sophomore to senior years. I only care about NFL future because that implies they were great players during college, in theory, and that should have led to wins. Super half baked since I know attrition and transfers and injuries mess up the class calcs. I guess I'd one day like to see something that relates overall class stars to wins since one could define how well players played to the win-loss column and not to how many had brighter future post-Texas.
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