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Rusty Shackelford

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Everything posted by Rusty Shackelford

  1. Yes that's where we're headed. Fed expected (by virtually everyone) to move to Yield Curve Control. Short explanation of YCC here: https://www.investopedia.com/what-is-yield-curve-control-4797189 Lower 10 yr yields are bullish for gold, with a very good (inverse) correlation since 2008
  2. No question that commodities(including silver to an extent), real estate, etc. are going to go through a deflationary period. It also appears the USD is strengthening relative to all other fiat, but all currencies will weaken against gold. As we become “Japanified” I expect similar price action as we’ve seen in XAU/JPY since the GFC.
  3. Another 4.3 million initial unemployment claims expected tomorrow. Another bullish signal to the market?
  4. Surprised to see distillate inventories build that much more than gasoline. WTF?
  5. USO now trading at a 36% premium to NAV She's a broken lady...
  6. Who’s gonna be the first to buy some -$50 June puts?
  7. Cross post from the oil thread. I’m pretty sure this is a stonk play: Starting tomorrow, the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) clearing house will switch its options pricing and valuation model to accommodate negative prices in the underlying futures and allow for listing of options contracts with negative strikes, Bloomberg reports.
  8. Holy shit! The big brain poker players should go all in on this one: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3562879-cme-to-allow-listing-of-negative-oil-options
  9. Interactive Brokers customers held about 15% of OI yesterday, got liquidated at negative prices. Jump to 1:30 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/21/interactive-brokers-peterffy-on-earnings.html
  10. 'The Fed Can't Print Gold,' Bank of America Says Apr 21, 2020 2:59PM EDT Bank of America’s analysts also make the case for three senior gold miners. Bank of America’s strategists see gold hitting $1,800 an ounce in 18 months. Gold’s not having a good day—but that hasn’t stopped Bank of America for upping its target on the precious metal to $3000. Everyone has their reason for liking gold. Some like gold as an inflation hedge. Others like it as protection against increased uncertainty. Still others want to own it in case they have to flee their home country in the middle of the night, even if that seems a bit extreme. And right now people want to own gold. Gold’s recent run began back at the end of September 2018, when the precious metal was trading at $1,465.70. Since then, it’s gained 15% to $1,689.60 And if Bank of America’s Michael Widmer and team are right, the precious metal is heading a lot higher. Like 78% higher, to $3,000. The reason? “The Fed can’t print gold.” Widmer expects rates to be low in the U.S. and the rest of the world for a very long time as central banks try to boost GDP growth and inflation. They’ll also be increasing the size of their balance sheets, while government deficits balloon. “Another important point to remember is that, just as central banks are socializing risk in financial markets, governments are increasing their spending like never before during peacetime,” he writes. “Investment demand has correlated strongly with gold prices in recent years, and we expect precisely this group of buyers to drive gold prices higher.” Is it going to be a straight line? Absolutely not. Gold will have to wrestle with a strong U.S. dollar and reduced demand from places like India and China. That shouldn’t stop gold from hitting $3,000 fin 18 months, Widmer writes.
  11. Did you see my other posts on USO upthread? Major problems with this ETF.
  12. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/u-s-oil-fund-issued-all-registered-shares-awaits-sec-approval?sref=pP1HNgUs
  13. Yeah, you would think that contango eating it up would be a no brainer short or put, but they have run out of shares to issue, so it should trade at a premium to NAV.
  14. You missed everyone jumping on my back earlier. Anyway here's a nugget on tanker stonks, if you want to gamble on the super-contango.
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