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washparkhorn

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Everything posted by washparkhorn

  1. Statement of Facts: https://www.manhattanda.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Donald-J.-Trump-SOF.pdf
  2. AI is the ultimate deflationary headwind. https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/inline-files/Noy_Zhang_1.pdf We examine the productivity effects of a generative artificial intelligence technology—the assistive chatbot ChatGPT—in the context of mid-level professional writing tasks. In a preregistered online experiment, we assign occupation-specific, incentivized writing tasks to 444 college-educated professionals, and randomly expose half of them to ChatGPT. Our results show that ChatGPT substantially raises average productivity: time taken decreases by 0.8 SDs and output quality rises by 0.4 SDs. Inequality between workers decreases, as ChatGPT compresses the productivity distribution by benefiting low-ability workers more. ChatGPT mostly substitutes for worker effort rather than complementing worker skills, and restructures tasks towards idea-generation and editing and away from rough-drafting.
  3. First, they came for our ramen . . . and:
  4. Well thank goodness the Fox Reporter’s kid is okay.
  5. I went to Lamar and my daughter is at Denver East. Senseless.
  6. Moral Hazard part 3,237. When the Harvard boys are calling it a “financial crisis” — the bailouts are officially sanctioned.
  7. Good read on the SVB and CS failures. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/fed-central-banks-created-the-current-crisis-and-are-on-course-to-making-matters-worse.html The best solution according to William Dudley (GS and Fed alum): The only remedy in all the years I have read about that might have a real impact quickly creates real skin in the game. It proposed by of all people former Goldmanite, later head of the New York Fed William Dudley. Dudley recommended putting most of executive and board bonuses in a deferred account, IIRC on a rolling five-year basis. If a bank failed, was merged as part of a regulatory intervention, or wound up getting government support, the deferred bonus pool would be liquidated first, even before shareholder equity. Skin in the game would do a lot more to curb reckless behavior than complex new rules. Of course, Dudley’s proposal landed like a lead balloon.
  8. Food for kids v. Reversal of Child Labor laws A light in the darkness
  9. Killing off the local and regional banks hurts. The non-TBTF banks have a better understanding of the communities they serve. They promote local and regional economic development and job creation at a time when the US is re-shoring for more resilient supply chains—a national priority. Non-TBTF’s diversify risk and reduce concentration in the banking industry, which make the banking system more resilient and less prone to systemic risk. And we need the non-TBTF’s for price competition in our “capitalist” economy, ostensibly for lower costs and better service. Yellen and Powell - like their predecessors - protect the boys.
  10. Matt Stoller (pro-enforcement of antitrust laws) may be right: https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/fire-the-fed
  11. Silverado Savings and Loan was the OG of the SI failures
  12. The Fed’s QT appears to have come to a close—as expected. The Fed Put has returned.
  13. The vc bros and their depositors (you know—the ones who say “learn to code” when they break things and people lose their jobs) weren’t bright enough to protect their deposits with insured cash sweeps—a fintech invention that has be around since the mid-2000’s. So we socialized their losses with two trillion in liquidity. The least they could do is say thank you.
  14. I am in the middle of The Passenger and have Stella Maris cued up. I love the book and the writing. It’s not the easiest Cormac work to read and I would not suggest it to anyone new to his writing style, but it is worth the wait. I think of Blood Meridian and Suttree as his finest works. For me as a Father of three, The Road feels personal. We cast our children into a hostile world and hope we prepared them for it. To wit: “What's the bravest thing you ever did? He spat in the road a bloody phlegm. Getting up this morning, he said.”
  15. Just a reminder on brrrrt . . . In order to bailout the financial system and reckless wealthy depositors, the Fed has injected 2 trillion in available liquidity.
  16. The Nash Equilibrium on bank runs (game theory) indicates spooked SVP depositors acted irrationally. Under the Diamond-Dyvbug model of bank runs, perfect rationality is presumed. Neither the bank nor the depositors acted rationally. Everyone with half a brain understands the deposit limits for FDIC insurance, but SVG failed to hedge the risk of a run and depositors failed to use well-known “Insured Cash Sweeps” for deposits in excess of $250,000. Rewarding those poor decisions creates perverse incentives and moral hazard. Those fanning the fears of additional bank runs in the wake of SVG (to force bailouts of those poor choices) created additional damage and negative externalities that may be actionable. Those benefiting from “yelling fire in a crowded theater” deserve scrutiny from regulators.
  17. Odds of anyone being held accountable?
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