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gmr548

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Everything posted by gmr548

  1. Pretty much the underdog except Michigan over Ohio State and Washington over Oregon
  2. Exactly. Auburn to that point, including that game, was 1-4 (25%) on the year and 10-16 (62%) for his career from 40+. The 47 yard kick was his longest of the year and two shy of a career long. He hit a great kick but it was far from a given. His career percentage tells you there’s a 38% chance you miss. Even if you cut that in half for sake of argument, let’s say because he hit a 45 yarder earlier, that’s still a 19% chance you miss. And then of course you have to factor in the odds OU then takes the ball and scores regardless of outcome; I don’t know how you quantify that but it is obviously significant. Quinn Ewers averaged 9.4 YPA on the day on 83% completion. On the season 9.3 YPA on 70% completion. Full field to work with, not constricted by the red zone. Kick block team on the field. The odds of you completing a 4 yard pass are just as good as making the kick and the latter has the upside of removing the possibility of losing in regulation and increasing the odds on the FG by making it shorter (you likely get inside 40 yards running another play or two). The right choice in terms of win probability is actually plain as day when you lay it out.
  3. Nah. Auburn has struggled from that distance all year (props to him by the way). You were never going to get a better deal than four yards to win the game, or at least take a regulation loss off the table. Probability of losing skyrockets by lining up for the FG. Felt iffy in the moment and an 100% convinced now. I knew that in my gut when it happened, or at least that Texas deserved the L. Still, after everything it was all right there. Smh.
  4. Finished my rewatch, don’t want to beat belabored points to death but things I didn’t necessarily appreciate as much live as I do now: The backwards pass on the opening KO was definitely there so I understand why Red fielded it now. Should have thrown it but even though he didn’t holy shit the facemask. Absolute boneheaded pick by Ewers on the first turnover. Worthy on the inside slant goes 15 yards and maybe scores if he gets out of one tackle. Needs to slide to avoid fumbles like the one he had. Otherwise he was very good given the circumstances. Should have been given a chance to win the game. Sweat and Hill had very strong games on defense. Ford and Gbenda, honeys what is you doing? Robertson and Connor are a massive liability pores together. I hope we’re done with the bench Majors stuff now because interior OL issues are about to turn up to 11. Brooks is a special back. I was wrong about him. He’s not Bijan but he’s going to go down as the next in line of stand out Texas RBs. OU left 7 points and a couple of really important money down conversions that they had set up, but botched, on the field. Just as we feel like Texas could have won they are right to feel like they could have blown it open. That’s how these back and forth games go. Sark lost the game on the last drive. Should have slowed down as they got to midfield, certainly after the Bowman injury. But more importantly, Sark is a fucking loser for not going for it on that last fourth down. I kind of felt that way live but I didn’t quite appreciate how lucky the defense had been to get those stops leading up to that. The game was over as soon as that decision was made.
  5. Finished re-watching the OU game (attended live so it’s a new perspective) and I wish I hadn’t. The losing mentality from Sark to not go for it on that last 4th and 4 is nearly beyond words. Yes the clock management was bad once they crossed midfield and Bowman got hurt, but they still wound up with the chance to get 4 yards to win the game - or in terms Sark would understand, not lose the game in regulation - and declined to take that chance. To do that, with the way Ewers had rebounded and was feeling it, with Brooks getting his way against OU, with Xavier Worthy at your disposal… all against OU’s kick block team. Just wow. They called the TO with 12-15 seconds left, plenty of time to check into a better play. Unbelievable.
  6. I’d push back on Conner displaying baseline competency, granted I’ve only been able to rewatch the first half so far. He was dogshit on the rewatch. I can understand an injury degrading his play but if he is hurt he needs to sit. If Neto can’t get on the field in front of him in this state, he is going to transfer or is a complete bust.
  7. I know Sark is big on composure, not getting over emotional, blah blah blah But if that isn’t displayed prominently in the facility, that’s coaching malpractice.
  8. 3rd down dive call had no chance. As mentioned above, Banks got worked, and Texas is using four guys to block two OU DT's. The Lehman/Ikard video actually has a good breakdown of the whole series, but they pointed out that OU had a subtle shift in DL angles here that made this same dive call DOA. They bet on Sark going back to the first down call and they were correct. That Brooks got to the two here is an achievement. First down maybe gets in if Brooks makes a jump cut. Second down even maybe had a chance with better execution on the pull/lead from Campbell/Murphy, or if the OU DT is tied up long enough for Texas to push the pile. Fourth down, game of inches and there was of course the facemask. This third down play was permafucked form the start.
  9. I'd probably exempt Kelvin Banks in the interest of not wanting to get Ewers killed but otherwise yes.
  10. Most of these are not getting fixed in the middle of the season. Teams are what they are at this point. OL interior is maybe the lone exception if Robertson/Hutson can grow into the center spot, but it was already a weakness. Hayden Connor was just dreadful on Saturday and has been a weak link most of the year. If they aren't looking at getting Neto some run at LG, I worry about his development curve. Interior OL is likely to be a weak point all year and every team that doesn't attack it relentlessly is stupid. The rest of them, I mean, they are the same problems that have been exhibited since Sark got here. They're structural problems under Sark/PK/Ewers that have been better masked this season.
  11. An unblocked screen was a hair too predictable, but Sark obviously didn't want to actually have blocking involved. Obvious solution.
  12. OU is not typically an underdog coming off a 49-0 L the previous year and hearing they aren't going to be able to get it done vs Texas because they haven't played anyone.
  13. People want to find a silver lining, want to see a positive trajectory. Being a sports fan is, at its core, escapism, so the natural bias is toward optimism.
  14. Ding ding ding This board is composed of degenerates. Most people check in and out a few Saturdays a year.
  15. West Virginia is not going 8-1 in Big 12 play. A couple close wins over other middle of the pack Big 12 teams are being blown way out of proportion.
  16. gmr548

    Outcoached

    That’s a ridiculous statement. In that clip you see that there’s not a hand on the facemask until Worthy is maybe 6” off the ground. He was going down regardless. It was A LOT of facemask and should have been called for that reason - but it was immaterial to the outcome of the play and it is hard to have a whole lot of pity for Texas given the display of incompetence that goal like sequence was as a whole.
  17. I think he probably eeks out a better record by a game or two in 2021. The defense would have been better and that alone means they probably don’t lose to Kansas. Probably wins a shit tier bowl game to go 7-6/8-5. If not fired then the seat is scorching hot. Side note - All that assumes Ehlinger doesn’t come back. I don’t know know how his decision was impacted by the coaching change. I do wish he’d have stayed for a year under Sark in hindsight. Would have been a much more enjoyable transition season. After that, yeah, no. 2022 with Herman would have been an absolute disaster and he’d be all but fired after the Bama game. He was fired for a reason. Think of it this way (not specifically to you but to the thread at large): whatever you think of Sark and his body of work now, it was an extremely questionable hire at the time it happened. There was not a slam dunk candidate floating around out there. Firing Tom Herman to do that was still the right choice and I don’t think anyone seriously argues that. That’s how bad he had to go.
  18. gmr548

    Outcoached

    Pfft. Let’s talk when you can DL 600 reps of 200 pounds.
  19. gmr548

    Outcoached

    I made the mistake of engaging immamac on this nonsense. Don’t do the same.
  20. So unlikely it’s not worth worrying about
  21. Yeah, to clarify, that wasn’t a value judgment.
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