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Dr. Beeper

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Everything posted by Dr. Beeper

  1. Conventional oil, and now if you can make a deal. It’s hard as shit because for some reason people don’t wanna sell at PV25
  2. I disagree about production leveling out. Rates of increase are slowing but they’re still increasing - and storage is way beyond 5-year average because of these warm winters. And worldwide demand is meaningless as this is a regional commodity. We’ve got far too much gas in this country and I can’t get envision it getting better without more pain.
  3. I love how we act like that’s not a thing. It was evident. Those two teams play 10 times, Georgia wins 8. We got lucky.
  4. No we weren’t. We had a terrible coach in ‘15. And in ‘19 we played an uninspired Georgia team with an average coach that led us to 4 losses.
  5. Maybe. Do you purely look at the technicals? Fundamentals suggest gas at $2 is the new normal. Storage at record levels. Inundated with supply in the NE and when Permian infrastructure comes online, there’ll be more supply. Winter never came. Gas is fundamentally fucked.
  6. If you don’t think you were at least 75% of the reason the thread got locked, you’re totally oblivious.
  7. Bill Beam will never read that letter and if he does, will not give it a second thought. You’re probably not wrong here, but you’ve wasted a lot of time and energy in this thread, and with that letter. People don’t get swayed by letters from randos in Austin that start with calling them a piece of shit. It will make him chuckle. And calling the PPD on you? Lulz. More self importance.
  8. I was told by Joe Tessitore in ‘15 and Sam Ehlinger in ‘19 that we were back.
  9. EFS has been resurgent, on a relative basis. I see A&D picking up here quicker than most areas.
  10. It can be a beat up sector for a long time. Longer than a lot can stay liquid. A buddy of mine trying to raise money met with an energy money guy who said energy is about as palatable as tobacco or porn.
  11. Is his contract with the Cavs guaranteed (if so, how?!?!)? Even so, he’s not taking a discount, and I wouldn’t consider him a short term solution. I could see him here 5-7 years. Short term solutions to me are Jim Grobe or Clay Helton/Ed O. Clearly there’s a difference between the former and latter of those categories and the latter have lasted because of some success.
  12. I don’t care who it is. But it has some merit if you’re worried about age (I’m not). It’s worked out, to some degree, for the Ponies, though a lot of that depends on how they do this year to prove that TJ can do it without relying upon Larry’s talent assembly. My main point is, I don’t care about age in college hoops, and Beilein would be fantastic. The best hire on paper Horns ever could make.
  13. There have been massive layoffs and bankruptcies this downturn. But, most of those aren’t HQ’ed in Midland, the Permian works in core areas and I imagine these are reasons why the Midland community has fared better this go round, particularly given the 15-20 year run a lot participated in. Also, most of the debt that finances those groups is out of Dallas, Houston and NYC. There are a few banks I’m concerned about in Midland, and one in particular. But overall banks are a lesser player this time. I’m more concerned about service company viability, and real estate and other loans that would affect the banks and overall employment out there. But yes, agreed it hasn’t affected the Permian as much.
  14. We post in the oil thread, the ticket thread, and, I guess, live in Dallas. I don’t know him. At this point it’s like a South Austin mom thing. I bet there are many who truly believe it though.
  15. Go the Larry Brown route that SMU went down - have him have a successor. The guy can flat out coach college hoops. Have we ever seen it translate well in the pros, aside from somewhat early return Brad Stevens?
  16. Yeah well old timers that have been doing this since the 70s say it’s never been this bad.
  17. Conventional seems to offer a lot of bang for the buck but you’ve gotta be smart. Not too many well bores, because P&A regulations are going to tighten up in every state, and packages must be bought at a certain $ per well bore, or it doesn’t make sense. Sellers aren’t being forced to sell and therefore no deals are happening. I also worry greatly about demand in a worldwide impending recession with a pandemic hanging around. And, I worry about EVs in China and Europe really making a dent in light duty transport demand. I think we are range bound between $40-$60 for the foreseeable future. Gas is putrid. I don’t think crude demand will see too much of a debt between now and 2030, but in between, it could get ugly. I think we’ve got about 8-10 more years of weeding through this shit before demand settles back into clear growth, coinciding with reduced supply.
  18. No chatter in 10 days. No NAPE talk. Gas up $0.10 today, and still below $2.00. Crude at $52 and very flat. A&D totally dead. Banks about to drop the hammer. The blood in the street we’ve been anticipating so long might finally be here. I’ve never seen things so bad in my years in the industry. Never.
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