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Texas Recruiting Notes 2020


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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I'm not sure who else should be considered. There's a fall off after these guys.

I have Broughton up there as well. He's more of a workout warrior than a good football player at this point, but 6'5 285 guys who move like him are rare, and he has good character and is enrolling early

Demas is going to just about the worst situation he could have gone to for big time football, all things considered, but he's a freaky WR who'd get drafted high on testing and splash plays alone by a GM with an imagination. I have him #1 in part because I don't see a lot of surefire high 5* talent here, mostly borderline, and he stands out the most to me. I have questions about his ability to make consistent WR plays and to adjust to route running in Jimbo's offense, but I try to grade these guys personally independent of where they're going, which is probably dumb 

Regarding how these guys should be graded, I personally look at it as college production, with some percent given to overall amount of production, some given to peak production, and some adjustment for bust rate. NFL draft potential ties into peak production

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via @golfclap in the Jimbo 2020 thread:

 

Quote

 

via Hamm Lite ::

 

I knew people would ask, so here are the A&M signees/targets and the Texas ones too.

TEXAS A&M SIGNEES - Current Rank (Previous)
Jaylon Jones - 16 (27)
Demond Demas - 31 (11)
Antonio Johnson - 47 (184)
Donell Harris - 52 (51)
Devon Achane - 54 (96)
Haynes King - 109 (84)
Edgerrin Cooper 114 (264)
Antonio Doyle - 119 (147)
Fadil Diggs - 175 (160)
Muhsin Muhammad III - 187 (171)
Chris Morris - 241 (225)

TEXAS A&M TARGETS
Zachary Evans - 33 (17)
McKinnley Jackson - 65 (175)

TEXAS SIGNEES
Bijan Robinson - 21 (23)
Ja'Quinden Jackson - 46 (55)
Hudson Card - 69 (67)
Prince Dorbah - 124 (123)
Kitan Crawford - 144 (180)
Xavion Alford - 170 (145)
Jerrin Thompson - 194 (158)
Vernon Broughton - 195 (172)
Jaylen Garth - 213 (152)
Logan Parr - 244 (215)
Andrej Karic - Dropped out of Top247 (161)

TEXAS TARGETS
Alfred Collins - 32 (40)

 

 

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8 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

So what do we believe with Dumas? We think the evaluations have gotten demonstrably better in the last 2 seasons vs the prior 16? I don't. I'm sure he's a fucking witch on the football field when everything is going his way. What happens when everything doesn't go his way? Prima donna WRs are not a good bet and I'm not confident the top WR for a 3rd year in a row in Texas winds up kicking ass as well. It should be interesting to watch. 

Shouldn't take long to find out when Mond/Calzada/King are throwing the ball over his head or behind him and RB's/TE's are the main focus and getting most of the touches.

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6 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Oh wow, had completely forgotten about Nate Anderson. Did he have a good year?

He's a pretty good prospect, although I don't see a ton of difference between he and Karic, and Karic probably has more nasty to him. Anderson is living off of his shuttle time 

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's an interesting exercise. How do you determine your top guys? College expectations? Pro outlook? Just based on the biggest baller in HS?

I could choose to never rank a WR in the top 3 slots in the state unless the player is absolutely, unquestionably put together on and off the field.  The past two seasons, Garrett Wilson and Jaylen Waddle were the highest rated WRs in the state. One had an incredibly high bust factor because he was bought and paid for, but he landed at Bama, where they have a process for that. Both players have hit big time. Prior to that? It's fucking pathetic, dating back to the Big 3 class. The year with Terrance Toliver and then Dez Bryant in the top 7 wasn't bad. Toliver was fine at LSU. Not a bust, but not a top 30 national player in any season. Obviously Bryant went on to huge things. 

So what do we believe with Dumas? We think the evaluations have gotten demonstrably better in the last 2 seasons vs the prior 16? I don't. I'm sure he's a fucking witch on the football field when everything is going his way. What happens when everything doesn't go his way? Prima donna WRs are not a good bet and I'm not confident the top WR for a 3rd year in a row in Texas winds up kicking ass as well. It should be interesting to watch. 

Sanders looks like raw materials and Alabama halo effect. I'll honestly be surprised if he lives up to 5 star billing at any point.

Zach Evans is the biggest bust candidate to come out of Texas since Robert Timmons. Same kind of fucking idiot.

JSN? Maybe he'll be the top performer. He's awesome. He's going to a great set-up. He looks like he has his shit together.

Jaylon Jones could potentially be ruined by his college choice and how they play him. If not, he's going to create another bust at S, either in his own right or because Brian Williams ain't going to cut it and isn't going to spend another season mostly riding pine.

Alfred Collins has an NFL body right now. He'll be going into a new look defense that should play to his strengths. 

I'm not sure who else should be considered. There's a fall off after these guys. I don't see McLellan in this group. JQJ doesn't have a clear position and is hurt. Card? He's fine, but come on. QJ? Rogers? Not on the same level. 

Gun to my head, I think JSN is the highest producer at the CFB level from the group I just listed. I think Collins is the best candidate to go in the top 15 of a draft. 

 

JSN was the best pure football player I saw all year in TXHSFB. Demas is the better athlete and has better size and that’s what these rankings are often about, but JSN  was better at everything else, better hands and waaay more technically sound.

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5 minutes ago, Fud said:

I have Broughton up there as well. He's more of a workout warrior than a good football player at this point, but 6'5 285 guys who move like him are rare, and he has good character and is enrolling early

Demas is going to just about the worst situation he could have gone to for big time football, all things considered, but he's a freaky WR who'd get drafted high on testing and splash plays alone by a GM with an imagination. I have him #1 in part because I don't see a lot of surefire high 5* talent here, mostly borderline, and he stands out the most to me. I have questions about his ability to make consistent WR plays and to adjust to route running in Jimbo's offense, but I try to grade these guys personally independent of where they're going, which is probably dumb 

Regarding how these guys should be graded, I personally look at it as college production, with some percent given to overall amount of production, some given to peak production, and some adjustment for bust rate. NFL draft potential ties into peak production

Since I may not have made my own view clear, I prefer to look at a recruit across every variable except for NFL upside. I don't care about the NFL except for how it helps or hurts in recruiting. I do think grades, family situation, income level, agent/handler situation, social media behavior, family history (are they related to other ballers?), commitment/decommitment drama, in-state vs OOS (stickiness probability), age, criminal history, other sports-played, and probably several other variables I'm forgetting should all be weighed in conjunction with physcial traits, camp performance, and on-field performance. Any circumstance in which there is an elite trait should give the player a kicker, whether on-field or off. 

Given that, I've long believed that there is a business adjacent to the recruiting services for the right kind of skill set to be involved and making/printing money. Research is a current void in the recruiting process for college sports. I know there's some, but it's scant compared to what it could be.

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Barring injury Kitan Crawford is a sure NFL guy, imo. The change in D philosophy at Texas is going to make Kitan Crawford a lot of money. Jaylen Garth's injury fucked him in the rankings but IDGAF just glad he's a Horn.

Conyers is a fucking farce. FWIW - the idea of what the 9.95ers want Conyers to be is what Juan Davis already is. 

Hornsby is too high by far, even if he didn't have a fuckton of off-the-field horseshit he's not a top 50 guy in this state. I think Dorbah is too high as well. He's got a ton of pass rushing ability but his size is a question mark. Kimber is too low and would likely be in my top 5. the DB ratings in general are a total fucking mess. 

 

28 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

Broughton's ranking is confusing. #31 in Texas?

Broughton is a victim of 9.95er expectations. Quite simply they expected him to show up and be an athletic freak at the Opening and instead he tested like a less explosive, longer, and leaner version of T'Vondre Sweat. His ceiling was set at that event and it wasn't going to change. 

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OU updated rankings :: 

Andrew Raym No. 41 (up 11 spots)

Nate Anderson No. 66 (down 16 spots)

Jalin Conyers No. 71 (down 26 spots)

Marvin Mims No. 154 (up 89 spots)

Seth McGowan No. 168 (down 17 spots)

Shane Whitter No. 177 (up 153 spots)

Kendall Dennis No. 196 (up 39 spots)

Reggie Grimes No. 231 (down 11 spots)

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1 minute ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

So when Rakestraw dominated JSN was it due to the Duncanville DL providing pressure?  QB had off night?  Or did Rakestraw flat out own him?  For anyone who was at the game/seen highlights.

Rockwall was laughably overmatched in that game and got the hell beat out of them at the line of scrimmage. The Rockwall QB only had like 50 yards passing the whole game.

With that said though, Rakestraw was also excellent in that game. His whole playoff run was insane, it’s why he went from almost no P5 offers, to visiting Bama.

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31 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

It's an interesting exercise. How do you determine your top guys? College expectations? Pro outlook? Just based on the biggest baller in HS?

I could choose to never rank a WR in the top 3 slots in the state unless the player is absolutely, unquestionably put together on and off the field.  The past two seasons, Garrett Wilson and Jaylen Waddle were the highest rated WRs in the state. One had an incredibly high bust factor because he was bought and paid for, but he landed at Bama, where they have a process for that. Both players have hit big time. Prior to that? It's fucking pathetic, dating back to the Big 3 class. The year with Terrance Toliver and then Dez Bryant in the top 7 wasn't bad. Toliver was fine at LSU. Not a bust, but not a top 30 national player in any season. Obviously Bryant went on to huge things. 

So what do we believe with Dumas? We think the evaluations have gotten demonstrably better in the last 2 seasons vs the prior 16? I don't. I'm sure he's a fucking witch on the football field when everything is going his way. What happens when everything doesn't go his way? Prima donna WRs are not a good bet and I'm not confident the top WR for a 3rd year in a row in Texas winds up kicking ass as well. It should be interesting to watch. 

Sanders looks like raw materials and Alabama halo effect. I'll honestly be surprised if he lives up to 5 star billing at any point.

Zach Evans is the biggest bust candidate to come out of Texas since Robert Timmons. Same kind of fucking idiot.

JSN? Maybe he'll be the top performer. He's awesome. He's going to a great set-up. He looks like he has his shit together.

Jaylon Jones could potentially be ruined by his college choice and how they play him. If not, he's going to create another bust at S, either in his own right or because Brian Williams ain't going to cut it and isn't going to spend another season mostly riding pine.

Alfred Collins has an NFL body right now. He'll be going into a new look defense that should play to his strengths. 

I'm not sure who else should be considered. There's a fall off after these guys. I don't see McLellan in this group. JQJ doesn't have a clear position and is hurt. Card? He's fine, but come on. QJ? Rogers? Not on the same level. 

Gun to my head, I think JSN is the highest producer at the CFB level from the group I just listed. I think Collins is the best candidate to go in the top 15 of a draft. 

 

Simmons has said before they base their rankings on NFL projections. Probably BS to make 9.95ers sound more professional, but that’s his claim. 

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6 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Simmons has said before they base their rankings on NFL projections. Probably BS to make 9.95ers sound more professional, but that’s his claim. 

Simmons being good enough to scout 17 year old prospects for their success at the NFL level is BS. His personal belief that he can and his attempts to do so are not. He will ding guys for not having NFL measurables, even though a lot of those benchmarks are having their legitimacy tested at the NFL level and not holding up too well, let alone at the college level.

As soon as we heard reports that Karic was on the shorter side with short arms I knew Simmons would drop him hard, even though college data has not provided data from which to conclude that his arms are too short for him to succeed in college. 

16 minutes ago, golfclap said:

Barring injury Kitan Crawford is a sure NFL guy, imo. The change in D philosophy at Texas is going to make Kitan Crawford a lot of money. Jaylen Garth's injury fucked him in the rankings but IDGAF just glad he's a Horn.

Conyers is a fucking farce. FWIW - the idea of what the 9.95ers want Conyers to be is what Juan Davis already is. 

Hornsby is too high by far, even if he didn't have a fuckton of off-the-field horseshit he's not a top 50 guy in this state. I think Dorbah is too high as well. He's got a ton of pass rushing ability but his size is a question mark. Kimber is too low and would likely be in my top 5. the DB ratings in general are a total fucking mess. 

 

Broughton is a victim of 9.95er expectations. Quite simply they expected him to show up and be an athletic freak at the Opening and instead he tested like a less explosive, longer, and leaner version of T'Vondre Sweat. His ceiling was set at that event and it wasn't going to change. 

Crawford is an absolute stud. I raved about him when he committed and the idea of him playing in this press scheme with Ash coaching him on technique makes me even higher on him as a prospect than I was when he committed. He probably won’t be ready to play CB next year, but he’s going to be a force once he gets time to focus solely on the position. 
 

I agree there’s questions about Dorbah’s size as he’s shorter and has shorter arms than Ossai, so it’s reasonable to wonder if he’ll be able to win hand battles and stack and shed like he needs to, but I think he can. He’s held up in the run game playing 4i at HP, and  he’ll have time to add weight once he quits playing other sports and lifts full time. Plus, he’s utterly unblock able in the edge. Ash supposedly employing a DE/OLB hybrid in his defense will make it even easier for Dorbah to succeed. 

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1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

As soon as we heard reports that Karic was on the shorter side with short arms I knew Simmons would drop him hard, even though college data has not provided data from which to conclude that his arms are too short for him to succeed in college. 

What's also bad about his rating drop is he looked good in the all-star game, plus has the film to back it up.  He looked good in pass-pro in the all-star game.

 

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30 minutes ago, golfclap said:

OU updated rankings :: 

Andrew Raym No. 41 (up 11 spots)

Nate Anderson No. 66 (down 16 spots)

Jalin Conyers No. 71 (down 26 spots)

Marvin Mims No. 154 (up 89 spots)

Seth McGowan No. 168 (down 17 spots)

Shane Whitter No. 177 (up 153 spots)

Kendall Dennis No. 196 (up 39 spots)

Reggie Grimes No. 231 (down 11 spots)

Us passing on guys like JSN and Mims at WR is absolutely rage inducing. Mehringer was a complete and total fuckup of the highest order. Fuck that guy.

I fully expect him to be selling insurance in the Houston ex-burbs in two years and after failing miserably at that, he’ll leverage his contacts in the industry to become an “errand” boy for daddy 98 for the rest of his life. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
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Dorbah held up at 4i in high level high school football, has looked great as an edge rusher at camps, and even recently looked very comfortable off the ball making drops in pass pro, covering one on one in drills, and running sideline to sideline. Very interesting prospect, to say the least. 

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4 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

What's also bad about his rating drop is he looked good in the all-star game, plus has the film to back it up.  He looked good in pass-pro in the all-star game.

 

Yeah. It’s pure stupidity. Their scouting of him as a player was a mid to high 4 star, but as soon as Barton learned he had short arms, he’s out of the top 247. There’s plenty of college tackles who were all conference or even all Americans that didn’t have the height/length to play tackle in the NFL. 
 

Mitch Hyatt was a 4 year starter and All-American at Clemson who wasn’t even drafted. It’s absolutely pointless for a HS recruit ratings service to be primarily focused on NFL draft stock. 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Since I may not have made my own view clear, I prefer to look at a recruit across every variable except for NFL upside. I don't care about the NFL except for how it helps or hurts in recruiting. I do think grades, family situation, income level, agent/handler situation, social media behavior, family history (are they related to other ballers?), commitment/decommitment drama, in-state vs OOS (stickiness probability), age, criminal history, other sports-played, and probably several other variables I'm forgetting should all be weighed in conjunction with physcial traits, camp performance, and on-field performance. Any circumstance in which there is an elite trait should give the player a kicker, whether on-field or off. 

Given that, I've long believed that there is a business adjacent to the recruiting services for the right kind of skill set to be involved and making/printing money. Research is a current void in the recruiting process for college sports. I know there's some, but it's scant compared to what it could be.

Pete Carroll and other successful coaches have pointed to this as one of the biggest things they look for in a recruit. I actually really like the research idea too. 

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4 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

i dont follow non texas targets much, but drew sanders number 1 in state?  looking at some googles, is he really that good?  aside from having a punchable face, those in know  what made in number one in the state?

He definitely put up huge stats. Helped having our '21 commits on his team.

 

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3 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Rankings this rankings that...we got the number 1 ranked RB and haven’t ran the ball for years.  &$:@^%€!!!!!!!!!!!

I mean it's not D'Onta Foreman but imagine what this looks like with a) an improved OL, b) less bone-headed playcalling, and c) a legit 5-star back

2 Keaontay Ingram 144 853 5.9 7 29 242 8.3 3 173 1095 6.3 10
3 Roschon Johnson 123 649 5.3 7 23 158 6.9 1 146 807 5.5 8

(number, name, rushing attempts, rushing yards, avg per run, rushing TDs...)

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Just now, Elmer_Fudd said:

247 rated this guy #211 in the nation today.  Had never heard of him until today, what's the story here?

https://247sports.com/Player/Brandon-Frazier-46055385/

Based on a quick google search, Brandon Frazier has been pretty under the radar since the end of the Mummy Franchise.  He had a cameo stint on the TV show Scrubs where he played a ghost of himself after committing suicide.

But he's back now, and better than ever (although according to the internet, he was apparently raped in 2003...?).

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1 minute ago, Katfid54 said:

Based on a quick google search, Brandon Frazier has been pretty under the radar since the end of the Mummy Franchise.  He had a cameo stint on the TV show Scrubs where he played a ghost of himself after committing suicide.

But he's back now, and better than ever (although according to the internet, he was apparently raped in 2003...?).

giphy.webp

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1 hour ago, Vertigo said:
1 hour ago, TexasRenegade said:

There is a literal ton of data out there that shows that playing multiple sports and not specializing in one also greatly helps in preventing injury.

Pete Carroll and other successful coaches have pointed to this as one of the biggest things they look for in a recruit. I actually really like the research idea too. 

If one of the sports is soccer, coordination, flexibility, and quick feet are probably pretty on target.  

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1 hour ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

247 rated this guy #211 in the nation today.  Had never heard of him until today, what's the story here?

https://247sports.com/Player/Brandon-Frazier-46055385/

6'7" 250 and athletic?  this guy is a herman special.  what the fuck were we doing? 

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Mike Roach: Thoughts on Texas signees and targets in final Top247

Quote

— Texas signed the top running back in the country for the 2020 class, according to the final Top247. Bijan Robinson (Tucson, Ariz./Salpointe Catholic) checked in at No. 21 on the list and will finish the year as the nation's top-ranked running back. Robinson’s major source of competition was Galena Park North Shore runner Zach Evans, but he fell just outside of the five-star range at No. 33. While the red flags surrounding Evans knocked him out of the five-star range, Robinson’s high character and elite skill made him an easy pick for tops at his position.

— The Longhorns have the chance to sign two five-stars in the 2020 class if they land Alfred Collins next week. The Bastrop Cedar Creek defensive lineman earned his fifth star and came in at No. 32, which serves as the cutoff for a five-star ranking. Collins checked the physical boxes at the All-American Bowl. The intel around this recruitment is pointing towards Texas and winning him over would be huge for the recruiting rankings.

— Ja’Quinden Jackson made a slight move from No. 55 to No. 46. That’s probably the ceiling for where a player like Jackson could rise in the rankings. Though his film and skillset are dominant, his future at quarterback is a bit murky in the eyes of evaluators. Jackson was ranked as a quarterback and his signing along with Hudson Card gives the Longhorns the top two players in the state at the position. It also lands Texas two of the top six quarterbacks in the country. Card landed at No. 69 after a strong Elite 11 performance and a matching senior season. He was also the consensus standout among the quarterbacks at the Under Armour All-America Game.

— Prince Dorbah pretty much stayed put at No. 124. As a player with somewhat of a tweener future, his ranking ceiling was a bit capped. Dorbah had a strong senior season and didn’t look out of his element as an off-ball linebacker at the All-American Bowl.

— John Tyler cornerback Kitan Crawford (No. 144) saw a little bit of upward movement after a big senior year and a strong performance at the Under Armour All-America Game. While he didn’t finish as the top-ranked cornerback in the state, Crawford showed off great tools ad the play to match all year.

— Xavion Alford (No. 145 to No. 170), Jerrin Thompson (No. 158 to No. 194), and Vernon Broughton (No. 172 to No. 195) all saw slight drops. Most of the time, these variations indicate stagnation and moving down due to others moving up. Alford missing his senior season didn’t help, and Broughton’s senior film just didn’t show the jump many people expected from him.

— Jaylen Garth (No. 152 to No. 213) dropping was understandable given he missed half of his junior season and his entire senior season, but Logan Parr’s drop (215 to 244) was puzzling to me. Parr doesn’t possess the high-end traits, but his production on the field never dropped.

— Andrej Karic fell out of the Top247 despite a strong senior season on the field. In the end, Karic didn’t have the strong All-American Bowl week he was expected to have and his measurables didn’t live up to expectations.

— Texas has a chance to add four-star prospects Kelvontay Dixon and Princely Umanmielen. Though they landed outside of the Top247, they retained their four-star status.

— I try never to focus on what could have been, but looking at the rankings, I see several missed opportunities. Texas would have been a real threat for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (No. 15) had they offered earlier in his process. They lost legit head to head battles for Jaylon Jones (No. 16) and Demond Demas (No. 31) early in the process. Loic Fouonji (No. 103) was gettable had Texas pushed earlier, and Jahdae Barron (No. 127) could have been a late-cycle target for Texas at cornerback. The race for Savion Williams (No. 163) isn’t over, but Texas could have moved earlier there as well.

 

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— I try never to focus on what could have been, but looking at the rankings, I see several missed opportunities. Texas would have been a real threat for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (No. 15) had they offered earlier in his process. They lost legit head to head battles for Jaylon Jones (No. 16) and Demond Demas (No. 31) early in the process. Loic Fouonji (No. 103) was gettable had Texas pushed earlier, and Jahdae Barron (No. 127) could have been a late-cycle target for Texas at cornerback. The race for Savion Williams (No. 163) isn’t over, but Texas could have moved earlier there as well.

Lol, they're all wideouts and DBs. Classic Texas. Obviously fed into us looking so bad in the in-state rankings with Mehringer being a brainless Stalin with worse hair and Washington struggling to overcome his highly-ranked guys looking like warmed over dogshit.

JSN: Fuck off, Mehringer

Jones & Demas: Ok Roach, that's very politic of you

Fouonji: The combination of Mehringer and an immigrant family wanting their kid close is tough

Barron: Yeah, we really needed to jump on our CB2 guys earlier, but Washington's gone and we look alright for Rakestraw so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Williams: Once again, WR coaching fuckery (more tied to not getting QJ, really)

Edited by texifornia
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7 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

So when Rakestraw dominated JSN was it due to the Duncanville DL providing pressure?  QB had off night?  Or did Rakestraw flat out own him?  For anyone who was at the game/seen highlights.

Rakestraw did an outstanding job on JSN.  I saw JSN obliterate the Allen secondary the week prior.  Kinda hard for me to make sense of the two games.

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Brandon Frazier is legit. I’m from McKinney and seen him play the last three years. He has great hands and is a mean blocker. Always wondered why no one in Texas showed interest he’s easily the best TE in the state.

Senior season highlights are a fun watch:

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6486694/5dcaf3ca176cf612e893d852

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2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Brandon Frazier is legit. I’m from McKinney and seen him play the last three years. He has great hands and is a mean blocker. Always wondered why no one in Texas showed interest he’s easily the best TE in the state.

Senior season highlights are a fun watch:

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6486694/5dcaf3ca176cf612e893d852

How did you watch Brandon when you are Brandon? You mean like at film study?

Edited by texifornia
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