Jump to content
atomheartbevo

2018 - Elections and Trends

Recommended Posts

52 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Make the most of a favorable map and weak opponent is my bet.

So we have 2 current elections going on in the 27th:

Republican runoff May 22nd between Bruun and Cloud. And Democratic runoff between Barrera and Holguin.

The winner of each of those will meet for the general on November 6th.

 

In the meantime, we also have a special election on June 30th, filings due April 27th. Appears the same 4 have said they will also be on that ballot. But yeah, I just don't think this is an emergency situation. Farenthold is a pajama clad potato. He wasn't doing shit for his people anyway.

 

And its kind of irritating to me that hot wheels wants Farenthold to cover the cost of the special election out of the 84k he, in principal, owes the people. I kinda think he, in principal, should pay the 84k and the cost of the special election and then go f himself.

Edited by relapse98

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I read a few minutes ago that the Victoria Co. Elections honcho estimated it at 200k for a special. Good luck getting an extra 116k out of him. Hell, good luck getting the 84 out of his own cash. 

I'm not convinced that 2,6 or 21(cited at the link as more competitive on paper than AZ8) are going to be competitive. But, if it draws away resources from other fights I am fine with it. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

U.S. House District 3

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE VOTE PCT.  
Richard Ojeda 13,963 52.2%  
Shirley Love 6,907 25.8  
Paul Davis 3,657 13.7  
Janice Hagerman 2,199 8.2  

26,726 votes, 40% reporting (244 of 612 precincts)

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE VOTE PCT.  
Marty Gearheart 3,768 20.9%  
Carol Miller 3,761 20.8  
Rupert Phillips 3,327 18.4  
 Others 7,199 39.9  

18,055 votes, 40% reporting (244 of 612 precincts)    

The man with the most votes on those lists might be cause for concern in some circles. I think it's the Atlantic that had an article on him recently. 

He's interesting. 

Edited by cactusflinthead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fortunately, it looks like Blakenship in West Virginia is toast.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/05/08/us/elections/results-west-virginia-primary-elections.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

(friendly reminder to open above link in incognito to avoid paywall issues)

As for the other two Republican candidates, can someone kindly explain the north/south divide in that state? I have next to zero knowledge of the internal politics of West Virginia. Thanks in advance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Evan Jenkins is running second to Morrisey. He gave up the the district that Ojeda is going to take to run for Senate. That's about all i got. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

wish Blankenship would have won.  Rs will pick up a big seat here now. 

Not so fast my friends.

Manchin is incredibly popular there and has a shit ton of cash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

Evan Jenkins is running second to Morrisey. He gave up the the district that Ojeda is going to take to run for Senate. That's about all i got. 

Ojeda is going to be a Democratic pickup in a district they have no business winning.....

Edited by Aqua Buddha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ojeda 

All of this has made Ojeda as confident about his prospects as Ball. “I’m going to blow through my primary,” he matter-of-factly told me in his office. That’s in May. And in the general election come November? His campaign manager is an over-the-road truck driver, his communications director is a single mother who lives in Mingo County with her parents and her 5-year-old son, and most of his unlikely, ragtag campaign staff isn’t being paid—and yet, fresh internal polling Ojeda shared with me shows he’s not only projected to win the race, but he’s beating his two likeliest GOP opponents among GOP voters. “I’m kicking the shit out of the Republicans,” he said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

wish Blankenship would have won.  Rs will pick up a big seat here now. 

I understand the sentiment that he would've been easier to beat in the general, but I'll just be happy that West Virginian Republicans chose not to support a complete shitbag as their party representative: progress.

Good news for representative democracy on the Ohio front. It looks like a statewide ballot for "Issue 1" has overwhelming support (~73%). It's a bipartisan compromise for reworking how they conduct the redistricting process. Read more:

http://radio.wosu.org/post/what-you-need-know-about-issue-1-ohios-redistricting-proposal#stream/0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Republican Primary

CANDIDATE VOTE PCT.  
Rupert Phillips 6,684 20.7%  
Carol Miller 6,613 20.5  
Marty Gearheart 6,470 20.0  
 Others 12,545 38.8  

32,312 votes, 87% reporting (535 of 612 precincts

 

others are kicking everybody's ass. That's Ojeda's competition

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ojeda 

All of this has made Ojeda as confident about his prospects as Ball. “I’m going to blow through my primary,” he matter-of-factly told me in his office. That’s in May. And in the general election come November? His campaign manager is an over-the-road truck driver, his communications director is a single mother who lives in Mingo County with her parents and her 5-year-old son, and most of his unlikely, ragtag campaign staff isn’t being paid—and yet, fresh internal polling Ojeda shared with me shows he’s not only projected to win the race, but he’s beating his two likeliest GOP opponents among GOP voters. “I’m kicking the shit out of the Republicans,” he said.

West Virginia is one of only 10 states I've never been to, and what do you know? The famous Mingo County, the only one I could ever muster to name, makes it's way into the story above. It must be a really fascinating corner of West Virginia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, it wasn't the Atlantic. it was that bastion of dirty fucking hippies over at Mother Jones

Quote

A gun-loving, pro-life, pro-coal Trump voter who once promised to “fistfight” Barack Obama’s Environmental Protection Agency, Ojeda doesn’t fit the profile of a progressive firebrand, and in many ways he’s not. He’s seeking to replace Republican Rep. Evan Jenkins, who is leaving to run for the US Senate, in a district President Donald Trump carried by 49 points. But the strike was a catalyst for a Resistance of a different sort. In places like West Virginia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, teachers and other public employees were rebelling less against Trump than against decades of austerity while corporations—particularly extractive industries—bled their states dry. Ojeda, like the man he supported for president, has found a following in West Virginia by talking about the state’s economic and political powers with unusual directness. But he wants to channel that anger toward far different ends. And he might even win.

He Voted for Trump. Now He’s Running for Congress as a Pro-Pot, Pro-Coal Democrat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
About G. Elliott Morris
Elliott is a ("big") data journalist and data scientist who specializes in American politics, public opinion, and predictive analytics. He is a government, history, and computer science student at The University of Texas at Austin and worked previously for the Pew Research Center and Decision Desk HQ.
 
 
hmm. I wonder if he is smart enough to avoid this place or if he has been infected too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone

It's gotta be bad if CNN is admitting this in their headline.

Quote

About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

CNN poll: Democrats' 2018 advantage is nearly gone

It's gotta be bad if CNN is admitting this in their headline.

  

Ah, so I guess today is one of those days where we can trust CNN polling. 

As someone hoping for a big Democrat in in November, I'd much prefer these headlines than the "Democrats have everything locked up" ones.  Given that special election results are statistically a more reliable predictor of midterm results than the general ballot polling, the Democrats are most likely still in the same spot we've all imagined, but more headlines like this will hopefully ensure that none of the voters on the left get complacent leading up to election day.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Ah, so I guess today is one of those days where we can trust CNN polling. 

As someone hoping for a big Democrat in in November, I'd much prefer these headlines than the "Democrats have everything locked up" ones.  Given that special election results are statistically a more reliable predictor of midterm results than the general ballot polling, the Democrats are most likely still in the same spot we've all imagined, but more headlines like this will hopefully ensure that none of the voters on the left get complacent leading up to election day.

 

 

Quite the opposite.  For CNN to posit such dire news this far out, it is more than likely much, much worse. 

Still, as long as the Dems don't shoot themselves in the foot in California next month ( which is possible) the democrats stand to gain roughly 7-10 seats from just the states of Pennsylvania and California alone. 

The generic ballot is showing signs of tightening up, but the repubs are not out of the woods yet.

Then hopefully Pelois can get hard to work raising those taxes!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably going to have to raise taxes to pay for the Iranian war Bolton is planning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right, I forgot that CNN is part of the Soros lib conspiracy and that their choice of headline is the product of intensive plotting back at communist headquarters.   The rest of you are all sheep.  Sheep I tell you! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's hard to gauge which names are actually new people and which are new handles to previous participants. It doesn't matter either way though. 

It is a long way to November. One poll isn't going to scare me. It might spur me to work harder. The exodus of Republicans from the House has happened. The historical context of the election tends towards a pick up of the House, the Senate would be a bonus bowl of gravy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/7/2018 at 12:06 AM, cactusflinthead said:

Farenthold back in the news.  Port Lavaca port authority hired him to lobby Congress and be their political liaison. 160K per year. Maybe he will make good on his promise to repay congress but I doubt it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Farenthold back in the news.  Port Lavaca port authority hired him to lobby Congress and be their political liaison. 160K per year. Maybe he will make good on his promise to repay congress but I doubt it.

Seems pretty swampy to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why in the fuck would anybody think that Blake Farenthold would be an effective lobbyist?

Cuz fat dudes in duckie pajamas get shit done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Brisketexan said:


Cuz fat dudes in duckie pajamas get shit done.

You really need to stop wearing those to court.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

You really need to stop wearing those to court.

But, umm, should my "assistant" still dress this way?

 

5977c73c4d4a0d372bbc1bc6?ops=max(750,0),

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprising to me that Port Lavaca/Point Comfort will pay a lobbyist 160K annually for what I imagine is an extremely part time job.   I wonder if Alcoa  (main user of the port) specifically asked for Farenthold.  Apparently recent members of Congress have a waiting period for being a lobbyist UNLESS they are a lobbyist for a state or local govt.   This way he can basically lobby for Alcoa but start immediately.  

Anyone know if Farenthold did anything particularly useful for Alcoa while in congress?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Real tight race between Brad Ashford and Kara Eastman for Dem challenger in NE-2. It’s one of the House races that the DNC is targeting for a flip, with Ashford being their preferred candidate. Currently Ashford has a ~100 vote lead with around 22k votes in.
Unfortunately I don’t think either is a strong candidate. This is Kara’s first run at political office, she’s not a particularly smooth talker, and she is pro-choice which I think is a significant liability. Ashford is a former Republican and definitely plays the part of the old white guy moderate, which isn’t really going to invigorate the base. In 2014 he beat a deeply flawed Republican incumbent who was being criticized by many in the GOP. 2 years later Ashford lost to Don Bacon, who is running for re-election this year. Now we get a rematch. Yay! I think Ashford has a decent chance of winning, while I think Kara is a long shot.

I really wish we had a better candidate, but we’ve done a shit job of building a good Democratic bench.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Real tight race between Brad Ashford and Kara Eastman for Dem challenger in NE-2. It’s one of the House races that the DNC is targeting for a flip, with Ashford being their preferred candidate. Currently Ashford has a ~100 vote lead with around 22k votes in.


Eastman surged ahead overnight. I think it reduces the chances for a Dem pickup, but at least I don’t have to watch Ashford’s boring ass commercials of him jogging.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Former congressman Blake Farenthold (R-Tex.) told a reporter Tuesday that he will not reimburse taxpayers for the $84,000 in public funds used to settle a 2014 sexual harassment lawsuit.

Farenthold, who resigned in April, told ABC News that his lawyers advised him not to repay the Treasury Department for the settlement amount.

WaPo 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, TahoeHorn said:
Quote

Ashford, meanwhile, held nearly all the advantages of incumbency in Omaha: high name recognition and party support, named to the DCCC’s “Red-to-Blue” list of favored challengers. But Eastman, a first-time candidate, harnessed liberal energy to beat Ashford in a district that the former congressman lost to Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) in 2016.

I think they overstate Ashford's advantages.  I think he was talked into running by the national party. Before Kara announced, local Dems asked if he was going to run. He said he wasn't going to.  Had he indicated an interest, Kara probably would have avoided the fight, but she filed to avoid an open seat. Then his wife flirted with the idea.  Then his wife backed off, and he declared.  He never engaged the party at the county level, as far as I could tell.  He sent a representative to speak at grassroots groups, where Kara would attend herself.  One of the things Bacon hammered him on in 2016 was an unwillingness to do townhalls, and, through his representative, he wouldn't commit to doing townhalls.  The only way he was going to beat Bacon, two years after losing to him despite the power of the incumbency, is if folks were just so disgusted with the GOP and he rode the blue wave.  Ashford, and the national party, were using the same fucking playbook from four years ago and times are different. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trump will lose his shit if Blankenship helps keeps a Dem seat in the Senate.

Wait, it's a day ending in the letter "y", so of course Trump will lose his shit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Seriously.  If Blankenship gets on the ballot that election is all but over. 

He can be a write-in candidate, so you can go ahead and make WV a leans Democrat senate race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

mpu


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Recruiting ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Help ... For Sale ... Politics ... Board Discussion
×
×
  • Create New...