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Texas opens as a 10.5 point underdog v Oklahoma


TexasMan

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1 hour ago, texasstrong12 said:

They might play but this isn't Riley playing mind games. They're banged up. Both missed the Kansas game and their reporters were saying they would probably miss the Texas game last week. 

The semi-credible OU reporters I've heard think that Ealy should be back, but probably not Swenson. OU has started 5 different OL combos in their 5 games, definitely something to watch for.

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At least one starting blOU OT will be out on Saturday so Horns D should take advantage by mixing in 4 man fronts much earlier in the game.  A 4 man front hopefully helps slow down blOU's RBs,  and puts more pressure on Hurts when he is passing.  Texas rushers have to be disciplined and stay in their lanes...

A poor Texas pass rush or allowing Hurts to escape by running on 3rd downs is blOU's best chance to win Saturday.  If Horns can't get pressure on Hurts when he's passing, the Texas secondary won't hold up against blOU WRs.

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27 minutes ago, Fud said:

I was expecting more passing down the field, like we've seen in the past with OU, or even something similar to LSU this year, considering OU's strong receiver group. However, the passing mostly comes in three forms; short passes (a lot of times they'll throw a screen to a jet sweep guy after he's run past the QB) that Hurts is pretty good at hitting accurately, guys getting open in zone (most teams play zone so they have eyes on Hurts for when he runs) where Hurts usually finds the open guy if he has time, and guys running wide open deep when there's a coverage bust. I didn't see a lot of throwing 1 vs 1 down the field. I don't think Hurts is the type of dual threat that you just keep in the pocket and wait for him to make a mistake, he's good enough now to where he can beat you that way. I think you have to pressure him, but have to be careful to not overrun him. 

 

They run a lot of quick passing stuff. Like you said, this is a different looking OU offense.

I'm not sure I would bring a ton of pressure in this game because Hurts is likely going to get the ball out of his hands quickly if you bring pressure. He can also beat you with his legs if you over commit.  I think I would rather us force Hurts into a game manager type in this game instead of bringing numbers. Not saying Hurts can't be that but I'm not sure bringing a lot of pressure is the right play in this game. 

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6 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

They run a lot of quick passing stuff. Like you said, this is a different looking OU offense.

I'm not sure I would bring a ton of pressure in this game because Hurts is likely going to get the ball out of his hands quickly if you bring pressure. He can also beat you with his legs if you over commit.  I think I would rather us force Hurts into a game manager type in this game instead of bringing numbers. Not saying Hurts can't be that but I'm not sure bringing a lot of pressure is the right play in this game. 

I'm fine not bringing pressure most of the time; controlled four man pass rush (not a contain rush, we should still try to stack him, just don't overrun him), with someone spying behind it. Their OL isn't great this year, and we should get some pressure, even if they're holding.  I don't think we should just have guys trying to keep Hurts in the pocket, because I don't trust our DBs to cover these WRs in this scheme for long periods of time. 

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30 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

The semi-credible OU reporters I've heard think that Ealy should be back, but probably not Swenson. OU has started 5 different OL combos in their 5 games, definitely something to watch for.

Ealy isn't anything special, so that's fine. Swenson is the decent one. 

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The mismatch is Radley-Hiles trying to cover Duvernay in the slot. There is no shot in hell Radley can cover Duvernay. OU is gonna have to help with a safety most of this game on Duvernay. 

I hope CJ is good to go because I think OU's strategy will be to 1) stop run game with Ehlinger and 2) try to help on Duvernay. Guys like Eagles and CJ will get single coverage in this game. 

Edited by texasstrong12
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3 minutes ago, texasstrong12 said:

The mismatch is Radley-Hiles trying to cover Duvernay in the slot. There is no shot in hell Radley can cover Duvernay. OU is gonna have to help with a safety most of this game on Duvernay. 

I hope CJ is good to go because I think OU's strategy will be to 1) stop run game with Ehlinger and 2) try to help on Duvernay. Guys like Eagles and CJ will get single coverage in this game. 

A fully rested CJ going against single coverage is probably the best possible thing we could ever ask for in a game like this 

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13 minutes ago, Fud said:

I'm fine not bringing pressure most of the time; controlled four man pass rush (not a contain rush, we should still try to stack him, just don't overrun him), with someone spying behind it. Their OL isn't great this year, and we should get some pressure, even if they're holding.  I don't think we should just have guys trying to keep Hurts in the pocket, because I don't trust our DBs to cover these WRs in this scheme for long periods of time. 

giphy.gif

 

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27 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Let BJ Foster spy his ass.  He will knock the fuck out of Hurts a couple times at least.  Foster can bring the wood.

I honestly don't care if knocks Hurts out of the game.  There would be nothing better than beating OU and with their starting QB on the sideline.  Yes I'm petty as fuck.

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41 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Let BJ Foster spy his ass.  He will knock the fuck out of Hurts a couple times at least.  Foster can bring the wood.

Man there's a better picture but I cant find it.

Agreed, the guys who are fast enough get to take turns spying and hurting Hurts

usa_today_11387913.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Sleepygrad said:

Can we get some goddamn pressure on the QB please

We played two QBs in a row where we could give them time but no one to throw to and trust that they'd punch themselves in the dick trying to make something happen. I think we'll see a lot more emphasis on pressure this game.

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18 minutes ago, krevo said:

I honestly don't care if knocks Hurts out of the game.  There would be nothing better than beating OU and with their starting QB on the sideline.  Yes I'm petty as fuck.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH BOY!

THATS THAT!

THEY PUT THE WHAMMY ON EM!

CHEATERS CHEATERS!11

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1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

At least one starting blOU OT will be out on Saturday so Horns D should take advantage by mixing in 4 man fronts much earlier in the game.  A 4 man front hopefully helps slow down blOU's RBs,  and puts more pressure on Hurts when he is passing.  Texas rushers have to be disciplined and stay in their lanes...

A poor Texas pass rush or allowing Hurts to escape by running on 3rd downs is blOU's best chance to win Saturday.  If Horns can't get pressure on Hurts when he's passing, the Texas secondary won't hold up against blOU WRs.

100% incorrect. Most of OUs running plays utilizing running backs involve slow-developing plays with pulling linemen, counter motion, etc. You want more speed on the field to kill plays like that, not more bulk. And their running backs frankly suck anyway (partly because their line can't run block for shit).

Hurts is the biggest threat in their run game, and again, you're not going to contain him with a standard four man front. You need more speed.

OUs offense can be a juggernaut when they get going; the easiest way for them to get going is to face a predictable front. If Texas wins, it will be because they got good push with 3 DL plus one extra guy "from somewhere" on most plays. If Texas loses, it will be because they either didn't do that, or because they went away from their basic philosophy and tried something OU is designed to crush anyway.

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15 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

100% incorrect. Most of OUs running plays utilizing running backs involve slow-developing plays with pulling linemen, counter motion, etc. You want more speed on the field to kill plays like that, not more bulk. And their running backs frankly suck anyway (partly because their line can't run block for shit).  Hurts is the biggest threat in their run game, and again, you're not going to contain him with a standard four man front. You need more speed.  OUs offense can be a juggernaut when they get going; the easiest way for them to get going is to face a predictable front. If Texas wins, it will be because they got good push with 3 DL plus one extra guy "from somewhere" on most plays. If Texas loses, it will be because they either didn't do that, or because they went away from their basic philosophy and tried something OU is designed to crush anyway.

Nice job adding the bold to the previous post... 😆

The way I'm expecting Texas to mix in 4 man fronts is by walking up Ossai... Not by adding more bulk.  So still lots of speed remaining on the field for the Horns utilizing a 4 man front.  🤘

Edited by LTtxfan
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2 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Nice job adding the bold to the previous post... 😆

The way I'm expecting Texas to mix in 4 man fronts is by walking up Ossai... Not by adding more bulk.  So still lots of speed remaining on the field for the Horns utilizing a 4 man front.  🤘

So, what they already do anyway?

source.gif

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20 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

And their running backs frankly suck anyway (partly because their line can't run block for shit).

LOL JFC.

Stevenson: 29 car, 315y, 5 TD
Sermon: 45 car, 345y, 4 TD
Brooks: 25 car, 206y, TD

Total is 99 car for 866, looks like 8.6y a carry.

OU is averaging 7.9 yards per carry, #1 in the nation. #2 is Georgia at 6.8. (Texas is #42 at 4.6 ypc).

Edited by TXSooner518
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2 hours ago, Fud said:

With the caveat that everything should be thrown out of the window for this game:

I'm surprised by how much of this offense Hurts carries with his legs. They aren't especially dangerous running the ball (with backs, they are with Hurts); their counter trey play that has owned the Big XII for the past few years doesn't look particularly dangerous, because the pulling offensive linemen aren't that athletic, and they shield rather than drive, whenever they don't completely whiff. When at least one tackle isn't holding on a pass play, they're both holding; I frequently shake my head in amazement when watching them at some of the flagrant holds they get away with. Swenson is good, Ealy is average, and Proctor really sucks. If Swenson is out, that's especially big, I think. They're good at sucking you in and holding so Hurts can gash you with his legs (that's they're best play, DL run of the field and the OL holds them while Hurts runs past); he's fucking good running, basically Ehlinger with home run speed. Or black Tebow.

I was expecting more passing down the field, like we've seen in the past with OU, or even something similar to LSU this year, considering OU's strong receiver group. However, the passing mostly comes in three forms; short passes (a lot of times they'll throw a screen to a jet sweep guy after he's run past the QB) that Hurts is pretty good at hitting accurately, guys getting open in zone (most teams play zone so they have eyes on Hurts for when he runs) where Hurts usually finds the open guy if he has time, and guys running wide open deep when there's a coverage bust. I didn't see a lot of throwing 1 vs 1 down the field. I don't think Hurts is the type of dual threat that you just keep in the pocket and wait for him to make a mistake, he's good enough now to where he can beat you that way. I think you have to pressure him, but have to be careful to not overrun him. 

One of the keys to the game, imo, is tackling Hurts when you get a chance. He's strong, crafty, and slippery, and hardly ever goes down from the first defender. Teams spy him and he breaks the spy's tackle, teams try to control rush him and he outruns them, teams spring towards the sidelines to contain him and he plants and cuts upfield. If we tackle him, it takes away a big part of their offense. 

Defensively, they play really aggressive and downhill in their front six. The DL shoot gaps and slip into the backfield en mass, and their two off the ball LB come downhill hard, which leads to big plays both offensively and defensively. They aren't trying to take on blocks, they're trying to slip under them; Perkins is especially good at this. They haven't really played a passing attack worth a shit, so maybe they play more cautiously when a QB can easily RPO behind the backers. They rotate DL a lot, so I'd try and keep them from subbing and hopefully eventually make them tap out. To be honest, there's not a ton to take away from past games defensively, because the opposing QBs have been poor passers, and the offensive lines haven't been good. They've given up a ton of garbage time yardage. 

Love the breakdown BTW (have some +rep). I know OU's schedule has been wet dogshit to this point so hard to believe all the numbers -- and I haven't watched too much of them play other than the opener against Houston until it got really ugly and a little of last week's game against Kansas. OU is averaging 7.9 yards per carry on the ground (Hurts 8.8, Sermon 7.3, Stevenson 10.7, Brooks 8.2 -- all on 25 or more carries). That seems like a lot.

Anyway, thanks for the breakdown. Hurts never impressed me throwing the ball at Alabama -- watched a lot of those games with my Clemson grad wife -- and I was admittedly completely hammered after last year's Big 12 Champ Game so I didn't witness Hurts' transformation in the win over Georgia in the SEC title game. Good to hear it's mostly short shit like at Bama is leading to lots of YAC. Because if he's able to throw downfield against our depleted secondary, it could make for a looooooooong day at the Cotton Bowl.

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Here’s what we know for sure:

We are going to line up and beat the hell out of them physically. Oklahoma hasn’t been more physical than us since Mack. Every year, we punch them in the mouth. We are going to win the battle of physicality.

We need Rojo to run a lot. Pooka Williams ate them up last week. Ingram isn’t going to get it done. Run Ingram when we’ve gassed them and when we’re late in long drives. Will this happen? No, but it’s how we should approach the running game.

Come out running with Rojo and Sam and it will set the tone for the entire day. I expect our OL to repeatedly punch them in the dick.

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3 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

LOL JFC.

Stevenson: 29 car, 315y, 5 TD
Sermon: 45 car, 345y, 4 TD
Brooks: 25 car, 206y, TD

Total is 99 car for 866, looks like 8.6y a carry.

OU is averaging 7.9 yards per carry, #1 in the nation. #2 is Georgia at 6.8. (Texas is #42 at 4.6 ypc).

Yeah lazy take - those dudes are ripping off almost 10ypc albeit against shit competiton.

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4 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Yeah lazy take - those dudes are ripping off almost 10ypc albeit against shit competiton.

Yep, could def call out OU OL and safeties, but the RBs are pretty excellent. Clemson is averaging 1.8ypc less than OU, Bama is averaging 2.6ypc less than OU, neither of them have played any worldbeaters either. 

OU was #1 in the country in YPC last year also, so it isn't just some random fluke because of 5 weak opponents this year. OU could go 31 carries for 0 yards Saturday and still be tied with UGA for ypc.

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1 hour ago, Sleepygrad said:

Can we get some goddamn pressure on the QB please

I also fantasize about getting pressure on the eligible receivers, rather than a 10-15 yard bumper/buffer zone.

Maybe even turn around and knock a ball down. Dreaming is free.

I hope Tom has some successful big play trickeration ready, that seems to be very helpful in these emotional games, just like turnovers and big hits. 

I want it all....

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5 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Yep, could def call out OU OL and safeties, but the RBs are pretty excellent. Clemson is averaging 1.8ypc less than OU, Bama is averaging 2.6ypc less than OU, neither of them have played any worldbeaters either. 

OU was #1 in the country in YPC last year also, so it isn't just some random fluke because of 5 weak opponents this year. OU could go 31 carries for 0 yards Saturday and still be tied with UGA for ypc.

I hope you get those 0 yds just so can brag to your sec besties...while taking the loss. 

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18 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

Here’s what we know for sure:

We are going to line up and beat the hell out of them physically. Oklahoma hasn’t been more physical than us since Mack. Every year, we punch them in the mouth. We are going to win the battle of physicality.

We need Rojo to run a lot. Pooka Williams ate them up last week. Ingram isn’t going to get it done. Run Ingram when we’ve gassed them and when we’re late in long drives. Will this happen? No, but it’s how we should approach the running game.

Come out running with Rojo and Sam and it will set the tone for the entire day. I expect our OL to repeatedly punch them in the dick.

THIS

set the fucking tone and keep our boots on their throats the entire game.  

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57 minutes ago, Machinator said:

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They always list a 3-3-5 formation even though we rarely run that. I’m hoping Jones starting at Nickel and S means Foster will play Joker. He’s exactly what you want in the box against this OU run game. Let him knife in on counters and track Hurts down when he tries to scramble. 
 

not to mention Foster is a good Nickel/Boundary safety, but he’s absolutely elite at Joker.

3 hours ago, Fud said:

With the caveat that everything should be thrown out of the window for this game:

I'm surprised by how much of this offense Hurts carries with his legs. They aren't especially dangerous running the ball (with backs, they are with Hurts); their counter trey play that has owned the Big XII for the past few years doesn't look particularly dangerous, because the pulling offensive linemen aren't that athletic, and they shield rather than drive, whenever they don't completely whiff. When at least one tackle isn't holding on a pass play, they're both holding; I frequently shake my head in amazement when watching them at some of the flagrant holds they get away with. Swenson is good, Ealy is average, and Proctor really sucks. If Swenson is out, that's especially big, I think. They're good at sucking you in and holding so Hurts can gash you with his legs (that's they're best play, DL run of the field and the OL holds them while Hurts runs past); he's fucking good running, basically Ehlinger with home run speed. Or black Tebow.

I was expecting more passing down the field, like we've seen in the past with OU, or even something similar to LSU this year, considering OU's strong receiver group. However, the passing mostly comes in three forms; short passes (a lot of times they'll throw a screen to a jet sweep guy after he's run past the QB) that Hurts is pretty good at hitting accurately, guys getting open in zone (most teams play zone so they have eyes on Hurts for when he runs) where Hurts usually finds the open guy if he has time, and guys running wide open deep when there's a coverage bust. I didn't see a lot of throwing 1 vs 1 down the field. I don't think Hurts is the type of dual threat that you just keep in the pocket and wait for him to make a mistake, he's good enough now to where he can beat you that way. I think you have to pressure him, but have to be careful to not overrun him. 

One of the keys to the game, imo, is tackling Hurts when you get a chance. He's strong, crafty, and slippery, and hardly ever goes down from the first defender. Teams spy him and he breaks the spy's tackle, teams try to control rush him and he outruns them, teams spring towards the sidelines to contain him and he plants and cuts upfield. If we tackle him, it takes away a big part of their offense. 

Defensively, they play really aggressive and downhill in their front six. The DL shoot gaps and slip into the backfield en mass, and their two off the ball LB come downhill hard, which leads to big plays both offensively and defensively. They aren't trying to take on blocks, they're trying to slip under them; Perkins is especially good at this. They haven't really played a passing attack worth a shit, so maybe they play more cautiously when a QB can easily RPO behind the backers. They rotate DL a lot, so I'd try and keep them from subbing and hopefully eventually make them tap out. To be honest, there's not a ton to take away from past games defensively, because the opposing QBs have been poor passers, and the offensive lines haven't been good. They've given up a ton of garbage time yardage. 

Really good stuff. I haven’t seen any of OU since the UH game, but it was really obvious in that game how much worse their OL was compared to the last few years. It’s still a pretty good OL (that’s helped a lot by the scheme), but it’s a huge step down from last year. I think Coburn and Roach could have really big games and Ossai too, if Orlando let’s him play the edge enough.

I’m not sure if Hurts can beat us from the pocket. Against UH, it was look to the first read, then scramble. I definitely don’t think we should drop 8 every play, but we also shouldn’t bring 5 very often because we do a terrible job of keeping contain when we blitz. Orlando will have to walk a thin line of mixing up coverages and fronts while not going too far to either extreme. 

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1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

Really good stuff. I haven’t seen any of OU since the UH game, but it was really obvious in that game how much worse their OL was compared to the last few years. It’s still a pretty good OL (that’s helped a lot by the scheme), but it’s a huge step down from last year. I think Coburn and Roach could have really big games and Ossai too, if Orlando let’s him play the edge enough.

I’m not sure if Hurts can beat us from the pocket. Against UH, it was look to the first read, then scramble. I definitely don’t think we should drop 8 every play, but we also shouldn’t bring 5 very often because we do a terrible job of keeping contain when we blitz. Orlando will have to walk a thin line of mixing up coverages and fronts while not going too far to either extreme. 

Yep, big step down for the OL this year. 

Hurts has been much different in the pocket the last 2 weeks, much more willing and able to progress through the reads. Obviously, things may be different in the Cotton Bowl in that environment, etc., but he looked MUCH more comfortable vs. Tech and KU than vs. UCLA and UH.

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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Murderers row for sure....

Right, sure, though maybe the Pokes have differing thoughts on the relative worth of Texas Tech. The point was the difference vs. Tech & KU as compared to vs. UCLA & UH, and those two groups of teams are roughly equivalent to each other. 

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3 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

Right, sure, though maybe the Pokes have differing thoughts on the relative worth of Texas Tech. The point was the difference vs. Tech & KU as compared to vs. UCLA & UH, and those two groups of teams are roughly equivalent to each other. 

HEY!

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39 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

LOL JFC.

Stevenson: 29 car, 315y, 5 TD
Sermon: 45 car, 345y, 4 TD
Brooks: 25 car, 206y, TD

Total is 99 car for 866, looks like 8.6y a carry.

OU is averaging 7.9 yards per carry, #1 in the nation. #2 is Georgia at 6.8. (Texas is #42 at 4.6 ypc).

You have played dog shit. 

And overrated Houston to start the season.   

The laughing stock known as UCLA.   

South Dakota-  Now you are getting SEC SEC SEC like in scheduling a cup cake.

Tech-   They looked like a team last week against Okie State, but they will probably suck this week

And Kansas-    And you had some issues early with them. 

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