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2020 astros offseason


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Here is Bowden's free agency list from the Athletic

Bowden: Ranking the top 35 free agents, and predicting their contracts and best fits

 

Free agency is underway, and the top of this class is special. It’s led by two elite aces in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg and a National League MVP candidate in third baseman Anthony Rendon. Cole is the front-runner for the American League Cy Young Award and is expected to become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. Although the industry has shied away from longer-term contracts over the past few years, Cole and Strasburg will likely be exceptions because of their ages — seven- or eight-year deals will take them only to their mid-to-late 30s. Both pitchers are coming off career years, and their open-market value couldn’t be higher, thanks to their age and platform-year performances.

This year’s free-agent class also includes a couple of set-up relievers fresh off World Series appearances, several quality middle-of-the-rotation starters, a few starting catchers, an All-Star-caliber third baseman in Josh Donaldson and a couple of solid middle-of-the-order bats such as Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos.

For some background: I worked in major-league front offices for the Pirates, Yankees, Reds and Nationals for a quarter of a century, including 16 years as a senior VP/GM. During that time, my responsibilities included studying each free-agent class and assessing the risks and possible rewards for each player. We would study scouting reports, player-development analyses, trends, age factors, injuries, makeup and character, statistics and personal issues. We would then factor in all existing contracts and market shifts before putting together realistic values in terms of dollars and length of contract expectations for each player. However, the game has changed, and today’s analytics allow front offices to have a much more accurate approach to realizing true value and risks. Therefore, with their consultation, I have included the latest algorithms available, similar to the ones used by several of today’s clubs, to help improve accuracy in these predictions. I have also included the impact of the “live” or “juiced” baseball in 2019 because of the obvious drag differential from previous years.

What follows is my projected contract for each free agent, along with comparable deals and the teams that I think would be their best fits.


1. Gerrit Cole, RHP

Age: 29 2019 salary: $13.5 million
WAR: 7.4 ERA: 2.50 FIP: 2.64 WHIP: 0.89
K/9:  13.8 W/9: 2.0 BABIP: .275 GB%: 40.3  Spin rate: FB 2,530; CB 2,901; SLI 2,622

Cole is likely to win the Cy Young Award and, soon after, become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history. He went 4-1 in the 2019 postseason, punching out 47 hitters in just 36 2/3 innings of dominant work and finishing with a 1.72 ERA in five starts. He grew up an Angels and Yankees fan, and if either of those clubs decides to be the highest bidder, it would become the leading candidate to land him.

Best fits: Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants

Contract prediction
Years: Eight
AAV: $36 million
Total: $288 million

Contract comparables: Patrick Corbin, six years/$140m ($23.3m AAV); Clayton Kershaw, three years/$93m ($31m AAV); David Price, seven years/$217m ($31m AAV); Max Scherzer, seven years/$210m ($30m AAV); Zack Greinke, six years/$206.5m ($34.4m AAV)

2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP

Age: 31 2019 salary: $38.3 million (in a seven-year, $175 million deal through 2023 with opt-outs after 2019 and ’20)
WAR: 5.7 ERA: 3.32 FIP: 3.25 WHIP: 1.04
K/9: 10.8 W/9: 2.4 BABIP: .274 GB%: 51.1 Spin rate: FB 2,167, CB 2,773, CH 1,679

Strasburg, like Cole, is coming off one of the best postseason performances in baseball history. He was 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA in October, striking out 47 and allowing just four walks in 36 1/3 innings. He was nearly as dominant in the regular season, going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and finishing second in the National League in strikeouts behind Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets. He just opted out of his contract with the Nationals over the weekend, which had four years and $100 million remaining. That was clearly the right decision. With only 1,438 2/3 innings on his odometer, and with his Tommy John surgery years behind him, he undoubtedly has a chance to become the second-highest-paid pitcher in baseball history behind Cole this offseason. He’d like to remain with Washington, and it’s likely the Nationals will make every effort to lock him up.

Best fits: Nationals, Padres

Contract prediction
Years: Seven
AAV: $34 million
Total: $238 million

Contract comparables: Patrick Corbin, six years/$140 million ($23.3m AAV); Clayton Kershaw, three years/$93 million ($31m AAV); David Price, seven years/$217 million ($31m AAV); Max Scherzer, seven years/$210 million ($30m AAV); Zack Greinke, six years/$206.5 million ($34.4m AAV)

3. Anthony Rendon, 3B

Age: 29 2019 salary: $18.8 million
WAR: 7.0 OPS+: 153 wRC+: 154
Slash line: .319/.412/.598 R: 117 2B: 44 3B: 3 HR: 34 RBI: 126 SB: 5 CS:1

Rendon is not only one of the best hitters in baseball but also one of the best defensive third basemen in the sport, right behind Gold Glovers Matt Chapman of the Athletics, Nolan Arenado of the Rockies and Manny Machado of the Padres. He finished fourth in the NL in WAR among hitters, behind only the Brewers’ Christian Yelich, the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger and the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte. With his injury history now far enough behind him, he should get a contract in the vicinity of the $260 million extension that Arenado got with the Rockies last offseason.

Best fits: Nationals, Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, Mets, White Sox

Contract prediction
Years: Seven
AAV: $33 million
Total: $231 million

Contract comparables: Nolan Arenado, eight years/$260 million ($32m AAV); Manny Machado, 10 years/$300 million ($32m AAV); Josh Donaldson (age 33), one year/$23 million

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Will Madison Bumgarner head to one of the National League contenders? (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)

4. Madison Bumgarner, LHP

Age: 30 2019 salary: $12 million (final year of an eight-year/$58 million deal)
WAR: 3.2 ERA: 3.90 FIP: 3.90 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 8.80 W/9: 1.86 BABIP: .289 GB%: 35.8 Spin rate: FB 2,405, CB 2,645, CT 2,488

Bumgarner is not as dominant as he once was, but he’s still a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. Opponents hit just .241 against his curveball and .188 against his changeup last season. At this point, he would fit well with a contending team where he can be the Game 3 pitcher rather than Game 1 ace. The Braves would be a perfect fit for him; not only could he have a chance to go to the World Series next year, but he could also really help the development of many of the young Braves starters.

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Astros, Giants

Contract prediction
Years: Four
AAV: $21 million
Total: $84 million

Contract comparables: Charlie Morton, two years/$30 million; Nathan Eovaldi, four years/$68 million; Miles Mikolas, four years/$68 million; Clayton Kershaw, three years/$93 million; Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million; J.A. Happ, two years/$34 million; Dallas Keuchel, one year/$13 million; Hyun-Jin Ryu, one year/$17.9 million

5. Marcell Ozuna, OF

Age: 28 2019 salary: $12.25 million
WAR: 2.6 OPS+: 107 wRC+: 110
Slash line: .241/.328/.472 R: 80 2B: 23 3B: 1 HR: 29 RBI: 89 SB: 12 CS: 2

Ozuna has hit 23 or more home runs for four consecutive years, and this year he added stolen bases to his résumé, swiping 12 in 14 attempts after stealing just 14 bases in his first six years in the big leagues. The two-time All-Star turns 29 next week and has won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Award. In 2019, he arrived in spring training with shoulder issues but worked hard in the weight room to regain strength in his shoulder. He has a career .329 on-base percentage and 112 OPS+, and any team that signs him should expect similar numbers.

Best fits: Cardinals, Braves, Reds, Giants, Mariners

Contract prediction
Years: Five
AAV: $18.5 million
Total: $92.5 million

Contract comparables: Justin Upton, five years/$106 million; Yoenis Céspedes, four years/$110 million; Jason Heyward, eight years/$184 million; Wil Myers, six years/$83 million; Dexter Fowler, five years/$82.5 million; Charlie Blackmon, six years/$108 million; J.D. Martinez, five years/$110 million; Lorenzo Cain, five years/$80 million

6. Zack Wheeler, RHP

Age: 29 2019 salary: $5.975 million
WAR: 4.7 ERA: 3.96 FIP: 3.48 WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 9.0 W/9: 2.3 BABIP: .311 GB%: 43.2 Spin rate: FB 2,341, SLI 2,386, CB 2,647, SINK 2,256

Wheeler has really improved over the past couple of years, in all aspects of his game. His average velocity on his fastball, slider and curve are the highest they’ve ever been. His command and control have gotten significantly better, as demonstrated by his career-low walk rate of 2.30 per nine innings in 2019. Both the analytics and the scouts think he’s just going to keep getting better, especially if he joins a team with better defense and run support. However, many also believe there are shoulder concerns, and what his medicals and MRI reveal will have a lot to do with how many years he gets in free agency.

Best fits: Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Twins, Angels

Contract prediction
Years: Four
AAV: $18.5 million
Total: $74 million

Contract comparables: Nathan Eovaldi, four years/$68 million; Miles Mikolas, four years/$68 million; Rick Porcello, four years/$82.5 million; Yu Darvish, six years/$126 million; Alex Cobb, four years/$57 million; Jake Arrieta, three years/$75 million; Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million

7. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP

Age: 32 2019 salary: $17.9 million
WAR: 4.8 ERA: 2.32 FIP: 3.10 WHIP: 1.007
K/9: 8.0 W/9: 1.2 BABIP: .278 GB%: 50.4 Spin rate: FB 2,084, CB 2,573, CT 2,065, CH 1,487

Ryu was willing to gamble last year and take the qualifying offer while coming off his long history of shoulder issues. However, now that he’s strung together 44 healthy, dominant starts over the past two years and won the ERA title in the National League this season, he most certainly will get a well-deserved long-term contract. He’d prefer to stay with the Dodgers, but if they decide to go in another direction, a move south to the Angels would become probable.

Best fits: Dodgers, Angels, Twins, Brewers

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $18.5 million
Total: $55.5 million

Contract comparables: Nathan Eovaldi, four years/$68 million; Miles Mikolas, four years/$68 million; Rick Porcello, four years/$82.5 million; Alex Cobb, four years/$57 million; Jake Arrieta, three years/$75 million; Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million

8. Josh Donaldson, 3B

Age: 33 2019 salary: $23 million
WAR: 4.9 OPS+: 127 wRC+: 132
Slash line: .259/.379/.521 R: 96 2B: 33 3B: 0 HR: 37 RBI: 94 SB: 4 CS: 2

The Braves and Donaldson took a chance on each other when they agreed to a one-year, $23 million pact last offseason. Both sides were rewarded, as Donaldson had a tremendous year, getting on base 38 percent of the time with 37 home runs and playing elite defense at third base. Also, his competitiveness and edge in the dugout and clubhouse were just as important as his performance on the field. Donaldson would like to return to the Braves, and the feeling is mutual. If Rendon departs from the Nationals, I can see them making a run at Donaldson as well.

Best fits: Braves, Nationals, Rangers

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $25 million
Total: $75 million

Contract comparable: His own one year/$23 million deal

9. Nicholas Castellanos, OF

Age: 27 2019 salary: $9.95 million
WAR: 2.8 OPS+: 121 wRC+: 121
Slash line: .289/.337/.525 R: 100 2B: 58 3B: 3 HR: 27 RBI: 73 SB: 2 CS: 2

Castellanos became a doubles machine this year, belting 58 of them between the Tigers and Cubs. The best thing that happened to him in 2019 was his trade to the Cubs at the trade deadline. He fit in well there, benefitting from being surrounded by so many good hitters in their lineup. His free-agent value increased after the trade, but his below-average defense in right field can’t be ignored, and he’ll need to sign with a team that has plus defenders at the other two spots.

Best fits: Braves, Cubs, Marlins, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Giants, Angels

Contract prediction
Years: Four
AAV: $16 million
Total: $64 million

Contract comparables: Wil Myers, six years/$83 million; J.D. Martinez, five years/$110 million; A.J. Pollock, four years/$55 million; Andrew McCutchen, three years/$50 million

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Yasmani Grandal likely won’t be signing another one-year deal this offseason. (Geoff Burke / USA Today)

10. Yasmani Grandal, C

Age: 30 2019 salary: $18.25 million
WAR: 5.2 OPS+: 119 wRC+: 121
Slash line: .246/.380/.468 R: 79 2B: 26 3B: 2 HR: 28 RBI: 77 SB: 5 CS: 1

Grandal was smart in signing a one-year contract at $18.25 million, maximizing his earning power and setting himself up for what should be a multiyear deal this offseason. His 28 home runs, 5.2 WAR and above-average framing ability make him a strong catching target for teams that have the need.

Best fits: Brewers, Reds, Astros, Rays

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $19 million
Total: $57 million

Contract comparables: His own one year/$18.25 million deal

11. Jake Odorizzi, RHP

Age: 29 2019 salary: $9.5 million
WAR: 4.3 ERA: 3.51 FIP: 3.36 WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 10.1 W/9: 3.0 BABIP: .302 GB%: 35 Spin rate: FB 2,236, CB 2,253, CT 2,161, SF 1,489

Odorizzi took a jump forward in 2019, as his velocity increased across the board by close to 2 mph. The drop on his splitter increased by an inch and on his cutter by 7 inches, which led to the best year of his career. He finished 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA, allowing just 139 hits in 159 innings with 178 strikeouts.

Best fits: Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Blue Jays

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $10 million
Total: $30 million

Contract comparables: Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million; Mike Minor, three years/$28 million

12. Cole Hamels, LHP

Age: 35 2019 salary: $20 million (in the last year of a seven-year, $158 million contract)
WAR: 2.5 ERA: 3.81 FIP: 4.09 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 9.1 W/9: 3.6 BABIP: .315 GB%: 47.3 Spin rate: FB 2,059, CB 2,040, CH 1,713

Hamels is aging well and showing few signs of decline, delivering three pretty consistent years from 2017 to 2019 in terms of strikeout and walk rates, ERA and FIP. He most likely will get a two-year deal like Justin Verlander and J.A. Happ received last offseason, and most likely will sign only with a legitimate contender.

Best fits: Cubs, Phillies, Brewers, Twins, Astros, Angels

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $18 million
Total: $36 million

Contract comparables: Clayton Kershaw, three years/$93 million; Jake Arrieta, three years/$75 million; Justin Verlander, two years/$66 million; Rich Hill, three years/$48 million; J.A. Happ, two years/$34 million

13. Dallas Keuchel, LHP

Age: 31 2019 salary: $13 million
WAR: 0.8 ERA: 3.75 FIP: 4.72 WHIP: 1.37
K/9: 7.3 W/9: 3.1 BABIP: .298 GB%: 60.1 Spin rate: FB 2,006, CT 2,134, CH 1,572, SLI 2,229

Keuchel found out last offseason that teams don’t value sinkerballers who don’t miss bats like they used to, but he finally found a home with the Braves midseason and delivered a 3.75 ERA in 19 starts, which was similar to his 3.74 ERA in 34 starts the year before with the Astros. The former Cy Young Award winner, two-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter and should get a multiyear deal this time around.

Best fits: Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Pirates, Angels

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $14 million
Total: $42 million

Contract comparables: Keuchel’s own one-year/$13 million deal; Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million; Danny Duffy, five years/$65 million; Miles Mikolas, four years/$68 million; Kyle Hendricks, four years/$55.5 million; Rich Hill, three years/$48 million; J.A. Happ, two years/$34 million

14. Didi Gregorius, SS

Age: 29 2019 salary: $11.75 million
WAR: 0.9 OPS+: 87 wRC+: 84
Slash line: .238/.276/.441 R: 47 2B: 14 3B: 2 HR: 16 RBI: 61 SB: 2 CS: 1

Gregorius had a down year after coming back from Tommy John surgery but showed signs that he can return to the 25-homer, top-20-MVP-voting performances of 2017-18. However, it’s unlikely anyone will take the gamble of giving him a long-term deal at the salary range he’ll be looking for after hitting .238 and getting on base just 27 percent of the time in 2019. I think his best play would be to take a one-year deal with the Yankees, become a Comeback Player of the Year candidate and go back on the open market next offseason.

Best fits: Yankees, Reds, Giants, Phillies, Mariners

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $12.5 million
Total: $12.5 million

Contract comparables: Elvis Andrus, eight years/$120 million; Brandon Crawford, six years/$75 million; Jean Segura, five years/$70 million

15. Will Smith, LHP

Age: 30 2019 salary: $4.225 million
WAR: 1.2 ERA: 2.76 FIP: 3.23 WHIP: 1.03
K/9: 13.2 W/9: 2.9 BABIP: .277 GB%: 42 Spin rate: FB 2,219, SLI 2,333, CB 2,022, CH 1,837

There were more teams pursuing Smith at the trade deadline than just about every other player in baseball. Practically every contending team needs a left-handed reliever, especially one who can close like Smith. Smith finished the year with 34 saves and 96 strikeouts in just 65 1/3 innings, with an ERA of 2.76.

Best fits: Astros, Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $13 million
Total: $39 million

Contract comparables: Zack Britton, three years/$39 million; David Robertson, two years/$23 million; Jeurys Familia, three years/$30 million; Adam Ottavino, three years/$27 million; Bryan Shaw, three years/$27 million; Andrew Miller, two years/$25 million

16. Mike Moustakas, 3B

Age: 31 2019 salary: $10 million
WAR: 2.8 OPS+: 114 wRC+: 113
Slash line: .254/.329/.516 R: 80 2B: 30 3B: 1 HR: 35 RBI: 87 SB: 3 CS: 0

Moustakas continues to produce year after year, belting 35 home runs this past year and finishing with a 2.8 WAR. He’s a winning player and a difference-maker in every clubhouse he’s been in — just ask his teammates and former teammates with the Royals and Brewers. A return to the Brewers will probably be his best fit, but he’s a Southern California native who went to Chatwood High School and now lives in Malibu, and I think the Angels would be a perfect landing spot as well now that Joe Maddon is the skipper.

Best fits: Brewers, Angels, Nationals

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $12 million
Total: $24 million

Contract comparables: Mike Moustakas, one year/$10 million; Marwin González, two years/$21 million; Zack Cozart, three years/$38 million; Martín Prado, three years/$40 million

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Yasiel Puig had another roller-coaster season, but his upside is undeniable. (Brad Rempel / USA Today)

17. Yasiel Puig, OF

Age: 28 2019 salary: $9.7 million
WAR: 1.2 OPS+: 100 wRC+: 101
Slash line: .267/.327/.458 R: 76 2B: 30 3B: 2 HR: 24 RBI: 84 SB: 19 CS: 7

Nobody plays with more passion, energy and enthusiasm than Puig, but you just don’t know what he’s going to give you on a nightly basis. At times, he’s a human highlight film, making diving catches, showing off his ridiculously strong arm and hitting bombs. Then he’ll miss a cutoff man, punch out three times and make a baserunning blunder. No one can argue his tools; no one can deny his holes. However, he’s still an exciting player with plenty of upside as he continues to mature.

Best fits: Indians, Mariners, Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays

Contract prediction
Years: Four
AAV: $12 million
Total: $48 million

Contract comparables: Andrew McCutchen, three years/$50 million; Jay Bruce, three years/$39 million; Josh Reddick, four years/$52 million; A.J. Pollock, five years/$60 million; Randal Grichuk, five years/$52 million; Aaron Hicks, seven years/$70 million; Alex Gordon, four years/$72 million; Ian Desmond, five years/$70 million

18. José Abreu, 1B/DH

Age: 32 2019 salary: $16 million
WAR: 1.9 OPS+: 119 wRC+: 117
Slash line: .284/.330/.503 R: 85 2B: 38 3B: 1 HR: 33 RBI: 123 SB: 2 CS: 2

Abreu is a middle-of-the-order solid performer and is expected to re-sign with the White Sox in free agency. The market for him isn’t clear; he could end up with a Khris Davis-type deal or a Carlos Santana-type contract. I’ll bet on the latter because of the strong positive influence he has had on so many of the White Sox’s top position-player prospects, such as Eloy Jiménez, Yoan Moncada and, most importantly, rookie Luis Robert.

Best fits: White Sox, Rangers

Contract prediction
Years: Three
AAV: $20 million
Total: $60 million

Contract comparables: Matt Carpenter, two years/$39 million; Daniel Murphy, two years/$24 million; Carlos Santana, three years/$60 million; Khris Davis, two years/$33.5 million; Nelson Cruz, one year/$14.3 million

19. Edwin Encarnación, 1B/DH

Age: 36 2019 salary: $21.66 million (in the last year of a three-year, $60 million deal)
WAR: 2.5 OPS+: 132 wRC+: 129
Slash line: .244/.344/.531 R: 81 2B: 18 3B: 0 HR: 34 RBI: 86 SB: 0 CS:1

The Yankees declined the option on Encarnacíon because they need the designated-hitter position to be available for Giancarlo Stanton, Luke Voit, Miguel Andújar, Gary Sánchez and others. They also need the extra $20 million a year to pursue an elite starting pitcher in free agency, such as Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. Encarnación doesn’t have a lot of places to find an appropriate landing spot, as most AL teams either have a DH or use it to rotate players. If Abreu leaves the White Sox, that could be a possibility, but I think the best spot for Encarnación would be the Rays, who really need a 30-home-run bat in the middle of their lineup.

Best fits: White Sox, Rangers, Rays

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $12 million
Total: $12 million

Contract comparables: Matt Carpenter, two years/$39 million; Daniel Murphy, two years/$24 million; Carlos Santana, three years/$60 million; Khris Davis, two years/$33.5 million; Nelson Cruz, one year/$14.3 million

20. Will Harris, RHP

Age: 35  2019 salary: $4.22 million
WAR: 1.1 ERA: 1.50 FIP: 3.15 WHIP: 0.93
K/9: 9.3 W/9: 2.1 BABIP: .245 GB%: 54.6 Spin rate: FB 2,520, CT 2,527, CB 2,775

Harris had a spectacular regular season, putting up a 1.50 ERA in 68 appearances, and he followed that by not allowing a run in either the ALDS or ALCS in seven appearances. His postseason was tainted in Games 6 and 7 of the World Series, but that won’t be held against him as teams bid for his services. The fact that his manager A.J. Hinch kept using him against every team’s best hitters in the postseason tells the story.

Best fits: Astros, Nationals, Phillies, Twins, Angels, Rangers

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million

Contract comparables: David Robertson, two years/$23 million; Jeurys Familia, three years/$30 million; Adam Ottavino, three years/$27 million; Bryan Shaw, three years/$27 million; Brett Cecil, four years/$30.5 million; Kelvin Herrera, two years/$18 million; Joe Smith, two years/$15 million; Anthony Swarzak, two years/$14 million

21. Michael Pineda, RHP

Age: 30 2019 salary: $8 million (in last year of a two-year/$10 million deal)
WAR: 2.7  ERA: 4.01 FIP: 4.02 WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.6 W/9: 1.7 BABIP: .292 GB%: 36.1 Spin rate: FB 1,999, SLI 2,011, CH 1,864

Pineda was pitching so well that he was on track to becoming the Twins’ Game 1 starter in the playoffs when he tested positive for the banned substance hydrochlorothiazide, ending his season with a 60-game suspension that will bleed into 2020. Pineda finished the year with an 11-5 record and a 4.01 ERA in 26 games started and was going to get a multiyear contract. Now I think he’ll have to sign a one-year deal and prove that his performance last year was legitimate.

Best fits: Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Angels, Blue Jays, Padres

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million

Contract comparables: Tanner Roark, one year/$10 million; Tyson Ross, one year/$5.75 million; Jason Vargas, two years/$16 million; Garrett Richards, two years/$15.5 million; Mike Fiers, two years/$14.1 million

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Will Adam Wainwright be wearing another uniform next season? (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)

22. Adam Wainwright, RHP

Age: 38 2019 salary: $10 million
WAR: 2.2 ERA: 4.19 FIP: 4.36 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 8.0 W/9: 3.4 BABIP: .319 GB%: 48.8 Spin rate: FB 2,191, CB 2,752, CH 1,769

Wainwright had a resurgence this year, going 14-10 with a 4.19 ERA in 31 starts and proving that his career is not over. The 38-year-old would like to keep pitching, and I can’t imagine him in any other uniform than the Cardinals’.

Best fits: Cardinals

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $10 million
Total:$10 million

Contract comparables: Aníbal Sánchez, two years/$19 million; Jason Vargas, two years/$16 million; Garrett Richards, two years/$15.5 million; Mike Fiers, two years/$14.1 million; J.A. Happ, two years/$34 million; Charlie Morton, two years/$30 million

23. Kyle Gibson, RHP

Age: 32 2019 salary: $8.125 million
WAR: 2.6 ERA: 4.84 FIP: 4.26 WHIP: 1.44
K/9: 9.0 W/9: 3.2 BABIP: .330 GB%: 51.4 Spin rate: FB 2,211, SLI 2,469, CB 2,482, CH 1,660

Gibson is the third Twins starter on this list because of his poor second half of the season, when he went 5-3 with a 5.92 ERA, as compared with the first half of the year, when he went 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA. His last month of the season was his worst as he put up an 8.44 ERA, which will be a red flag for teams pursuing him.

Best fits: Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Angels, Blue Jays, Padres

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $9 million
Total: $18 million

Contract comparables: Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million; Alex Wood, one year/$9.9 million; Tanner Roark, one year/$10 million; Aníbal Sánchez, two years/$19 million; Iván Nova, three years/$26 million; Jason Vargas, two years/$16 million; Sonny Gray, three years/$30.5 million; Mike Minor, three years/$28 million

24. Rick Porcello, RHP

Age: 30 2019 salary: $21.125 million (last year of a four-year, $82 million deal)
WAR: 1.8  ERA: 5.52 FIP: 4.76 WHIP: 1.39
K/9: 7.4 W/9: 2.3 BABIP: .308 GB%: 38.1 Spin rate: FB 2,434, SLI 2,555, CB 2,810, CH 1,600

Porcello is coming off one of the worst years of his career, as he posted a 4.76 FIP, striking out just 143 batters in 174 1/3 innings, his lowest strikeout rate since 2014. He might have to take a one-year “pillow” deal to reestablish his value.

Best fits: Pirates, Blue Jays, Brewers, Twins

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $9 million
Total: $9 million

Contract comparables: Lance Lynn, three years/$30 million; Alex Wood, one year/$9.9 million; Tanner Roark, one year/$10 million; Aníbal Sánchez, two years/$19 million; Iván Nova, three years/$26 million; Jason Vargas, two years/$16 million

25. Brett Gardner, OF

Age: 36 2019 salary: $8 million
2019 WAR: 3.6 OPS+: 117 wRC+: 115
Slash line: .251/.325/.503 R: 86 2B: 26 3B: 7 HR: 28 RBI: 74 SB: 10 CS: 2

Gardner had a surprisingly terrific year, belting 26 doubles and adding career highs with 28 home runs and 74 RBIs in while swiping 10 bases. The way he grinds at-bats, works the count and fouls off balls is a great influence on the rest of the Yankees lineup, and I’d be surprised if they don’t want him back for another year, as long as he’ll accept a one-year deal with a small raise.

Best fits: Yankees 

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $10 million
Total: $10 million

Contract comparables: Gardner’s own one-year/$8 million deal; Nick Markakis, one year/$6 million; Kevin Pillar, one year/$5.8 million

26. Avisaíl García, OF

Age: 28 2019 salary: $3.5 million
WAR: 1.8 OPS+: 111 wRC+: 112
Slash line: .282/.332/.464 R: 61 2B: 25 3B: 2 HR: 20 RBI: 72 SB: 10 CS: 4

Best fits: Rays, Mariners, Padres

García was an undervalued free-agent signing this past year, as he provided the power they expected with 25 doubles and 20 homers. His manager, Kevin Cash, told me the team was happy with his defense in right field as well, and it looks like a return to Tampa is possible.

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $8.5 million
Total: $17 million

Contract comparables: Kole Calhoun, three years/$26 million; Corey Dickerson, one year/$8.5 million; Kevin Pillar, one year/$5.8 million; Eric Thames, three years/$16 million; Mark Canha, one year/$2.05 million; Nick Markakis, one year/$6 million

27. Drew Pomeranz, LHP

Age: 30 2019 salary: $1.5 million
WAR: 0.7 ERA: 4.85 FIP: 4.59 WHIP: 1.43
K/9: 11.9 W/9: 3.8 BABIP: .337 GB%: 39 Spin rate: FB 2,436, CB 2,283, CT 2,354

Pomeranz started the year with the Giants and posted a dismal 2-9 record with a 5.68 ERA in 21 games (17 starts). However, once he was traded to the Brewers at the deadline, he took off when they used him primarily as a reliever and matched him up properly with opposing batters. The results were staggering: A 2.39 ERA in 24 relief appearances and one game started. He punched out 45 batters in just 26 1/3 innings, walking eight and increasing his free-agent value significantly in just two months.

Best fits: Astros, Brewers, Braves, Red Sox 

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Contract comparables: Steve Cishek, two years/$13 million; Fernando Rodney, one year/$5.25 million; Brandon Kintzler, two years/$10 million; Héctor Rondón, two years/$8.5 million; Will Harris, one year/$4.22 million; Jesse Chavez, two years/$8 million

28. Joe Smith, RHP

Age: 35 2019 salary: $8 million (last year of a two-year, $15 million deal)
WAR: 0.4  ERA: 1.80 FIP: 3.09 WHIP: 0.96
K/9: 7.9 W/9: 1.8 BABIP: .254 GB%: 49.3 Spin rate: FB 2,150, SLI 2,322

Smith is well respected in the sport and loved by teammates because of his strong makeup and character. He’s a plus to everyone’s bullpen because of his sidearm delivery and the fact that he can get out left-handers and right-handers. Left-handed hitters batted just .229 against him, and right-handed batters hit just .196 against him.

Best fits: Astros, Angels, Phillies, Braves

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Contract comparables: Steve Cishek, two years/$13 million; Fernando Rodney, one year/$5.25 million; Brandon Kintzler, two years/$10 million; Héctor Rondón, two years/$8.5 million; Yusmeiro Petit, two years/$10m; Blake Parker, one year/$1.8 million; Sam Dyson, one year/$6.4 million

nationals.jpg
 
Howie Kendrick played a critical role in the Nationals’ championship run. (Thomas B. Shea / USA Today)

29. Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B/DH

Age: 36 2019 salary: $4 million (in the last year of a two-year, $7 million deal)
WAR: 2.9 OPS+: 142 wRC+: 146
Slash line: .344/.395/.572  R: 61 2B: 23 3B: 1 HR: 17 RBI: 62 SB: 2 CS: 1 

Kendrick led all major-league hitters with over 350 plate appearances in batting average in the regular season, then hit the two biggest home runs of the postseason, including the grand slam that beat the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS and the two-run home run in Game 7 of the World Series to beat the Astros. However, he is really a part-time player at this stage of his career. He can play first base adequately and is below-average at second base.

Best fits: Nationals, Red Sox, Rockies

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $7 million
Total: $7 million 

Contract comparables: Steve Pearce, one year/$6.25 million; Mitch Moreland, two years/$13 million; Matt Adams, one year/$4 million; Jake Lamb, one year/$5 million

30. Robinson Chirinos, C

Age: 35 2019 salary: $5.75 million
WAR: 2.3 OPS+: 105 wRC+: 113
Slash line: .238/.347/.443  R: 57 2B: 22 3B: 1 HR: 17 RBI: 58 SB: 1 CS: 2

The Astros’ analytics and technology departments really helped him mechanically, both in his receiving and his hitting, and he did a phenomenal job in calling games for Houston’s pitchers. It was the third year in a row he hit at least 17 home runs.

Best fits: Astros, Reds

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $7  million
Total: $14 million

Contract comparables: Tyler Flowers, one year/$6 million; Alex Avila, two years/$8.25 million; Jeff Mathis, two years/$6.25 million; Jason Castro, three years/$24.5 million; Kurt Suzuki, two years/$10 million; James McCann, one year/$4.9 million; Martín Maldonado, one year/$2.5 million; Wilson Ramos, two years/$19 million

31. Rich Hill, LHP

Age: 39 2019 salary: $18.67 million (last year of a three-year, $48 million deal)
WAR: 0.0  ERA: 2.45 FIP: 4.10 WHIP: 1.13
K/9: 11.05  W/9: 2.76 BABIP: .275 GB%: 49.6 Spin rate: FB 2474, CB 2919, SLI 2828

Hill made only 13 starts this year because of injuries but did produce when he was on the bump, with a 2.45 ERA, 72 strikeouts and 18 walks in 58 2/3 innings. He’ll probably have to sign a one-year deal with a low base salary and incentives based on games started and innings pitched. His curveball is still elite.

Best fits: Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $8 million
Total: $8 million

Contract comparables: Tanner Roark, one year/$10 million; Aníbal Sánchez, two years/$19 million; Jason Vargas, two years/$16 million; Garrett Richards, two years/$15.5 million; Mike Fiers, two years/$14.1 million

32. Eric Sogard, 2B

Age: 33 2019 salary: $555,000
WAR: 2.6 OPS+: 116 wRC+: 115
Slash line: .266/.328/.404 R: 59 2B: 23 3B: 2 HR: 13 RBI: 40 SB: 8 CS: 0

Sogard can hit and is a solid defender. Contending teams will pursue him because he’s the type of role player who can be difference-maker coming off the bench, or, if there’s an injury, playing every day for weeks at a time.

Best fits: Rays, Nationals, Indians, Cubs, A’s, Angels

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $2 million
Total: $2 million

Contract comparables: Neil Walker, one year/$2 million; Matt Duffy, one year/$2.9 million; Brandon Drury, one year/$2.5 million; Aledmys Díaz, one year/$2.4 million; Devon Travis, one year/$1.95 million; Charlie Culberson, one year/$1.8 million; Greg Garcia, one year/$1.7 million; Daniel Descalso, two years/$5 million

33. Travis d’Arnaud, C

Age: 30 2019 salary: $3.5 million
WAR: 1.6 OPS+: 98 wRC+: 98
Slash line: .251/.312/.433 R: 52 2B: 16 3B: 0 HR: 16 RBI: 69 SB: 0 CS: 1

He bounced around last year from the Mets to the Dodgers before landing with the Rays. Tampa Bay had three catchers go down with injuries, and when they traded for d’Arnaud, they certainly didn’t expect him to not only become their everyday catcher but also to hit in the middle of their lineup in the postseason. He ended up hitting .263 with 16 doubles and 16 home runs for the Rays in 92 regular-season games.

Best fits: Rays, Reds

Contract prediction
Years: Two
AAV: $5 million
Total: $10 million

Contract comparables: Tyler Flowers, one year/$6 million; Alex Avila, two years/$8.25 million; Jeff Mathis, two years/$6.25 million; Jason Castro, three years/$24.5 million; Kurt Suzuki, two years/$10 million; James McCann, one year/$4.9 million; Martín Maldonado, one year/$2.5 million; Wilson Ramos, two years/$19 million

34. Brett Anderson, LHP

Age: 31 2019 salary: $1.5 million
WAR: 2.0 ERA: 3.89 FIP: 4.57 WHIP: 1.31
K/9: 4.6 W/9: 2.5 BABIP: .278 GB%: 54.5 Spin rate: FB 2,028 SLI 2,384 CH 1,481

Anderson had a solid year in Oakland, eating 176 innings. His FIP of 4.57 and low strikeout rate of 4.6 will prevent him from getting a major deal, and his best play will be to stay put in the spacious confines of the Oakland Coliseum.

Best fits: A’s

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $4 million
Total: $4 million

Contract comparables: Jeremy Hellickson, one year/$1.3 million; Wade LeBlanc, one year/$2.75 million; Marco Estrada, one year/$4 million; Collin McHugh, one year/$5.8 million; Wade Miley, one year/$4.5 million

35. Tanner Roark, RHP

Age: 33 2019 salary: $10 million
WAR: 2.0 ERA: 4.35 FIP: 4.67 WHIP: 1.40
K/9: 8.6 W/9: 2.78 BABIP: .322 GB%: 36.2 Spin rate: FB 2145, SLI 2255, CB 2745

Roark made 31 starts this year, finishing with a 10-10 record and a 4.35 ERA in 165.1 innings of work, with 158 strikeouts. He’s a back-of-the-rotation guy at this point who can be an innings-eater but shouldn’t see the third time through a lineup.

Best fits: Athletics, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays

Contract prediction
Years: One
AAV: $5 million
Total: $5 million

Contract comparables: Trevor Cahill, one year/$9 million; Marco Estrada, one year/$4 million; Collin McHugh, one year/$5.8 million; Wade Miley, one year/$4.5 million; Michael Pineda, two years/$10 million

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3 hours ago, pepper brooks said:

ha.  kinda, but not really.  each year you are either constructing a team that will be better or worse than the previous year.  It is really hard to imagine a scenario where the 2020 AStros are a better team than either the 2018 or 2019 versions of the astros.  That doesn't mean they will suck.  They will compete for the West and be the odds on favorite to win the division again.  That said, their playoff rotation as it stands today is not going to be as good as the last two versions.  It just isn't happening.  I say the over under on wins next year is 97.  

2018 and 2019 Astros were both better than 2017.  I'd take the 2017 results over both though.

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36 million per for 8 years is damn near guaranteed to be a franchise crippling deal down the road because it will mean 4 seasons when he will be 35 or older.    I'm not sure even the Angels are dumb enough to do that.  Kershaw is 31 and already in his decline.

Edited by kevwun
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3 hours ago, YChang said:

I wish that's what Cole cares more about and that it carried more weight in his decision making... but we can all assume, that's not what Boras cares about. 

Your'e 100% right about Boras.  But you're forgetting one of his clients that got a long-term deal done with the club he wanted to play for, without much drama and despite the fact he could probably have gotten more by waiting. 

I'm not saying Cole is anything like Altuve, but there is precedent of a client that reined in Boras's inclination to squeeze every penny.

But...Cole ain't gonna be an Astro.

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1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Why is Grandal still being underrated?  10th on that Bowden list gtfo.  Catchers age gracefully and his worst performance over the past five years was in 2017 when he only put up 4.1 fWAR.  He's a machine.

This was from Law's piece today:

Grandal is an analytical favorite thanks to great framing and consistently high walk rates, but gets mixed reviews from teams that have employed him for how he has worked with pitchers -- a particular complaint from Padres and Dodgers personnel -- and for below-average blocking skills.

I guess this is playing into it? Not sure. 

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I forgot about that.  That actually could be what keeps Reddick on the team as a part timer if when we can't find a team willing to take on his salary.


Fify
And yeah, completely forgot about the 26th man
Still seems like a waste to use a 26th spot on an extra outfielder that gives you nothing that others on the 25 man don’t already

I am interested to see what position teams across the league go with for that 26th spot
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2 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

 


Fify
And yeah, completely forgot about the 26th man
Still seems like a waste to use a 26th spot on an extra outfielder that gives you nothing that others on the 25 man don’t already

I am interested to see what position teams across the league go with for that 26th spot

 

The majority will be yet another reliever and the majority of them will be guys on the shuttle between AAA and MLB all year.  Yay.

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4 hours ago, kevwun said:

Isn't control Teheran's biggest issue? Not sure how much the Astros can do with him in regards to that.  If they knew how to fix that one, Strom would have already done it to James.

Uh, yeah.  Teheran is well over 4BB/9IP the last two years.  Hard pass.

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About Cole, he had a just an unbelievable season (except April and into May) but what’s ‘normal’ ?

no way he continues how he ended the season. I remember going to some of April starts and Thinking ‘damn he’s regressed’. Thankful he turned it around. 
 

 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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2 hours ago, DaysOff said:

He can't get any better because that's pretty much impossible, so someone else will pay 300 MM for him to be worse. That's how I'm taking the loss pussy.

That's exactly what I keep telling myself.  Over and over and over........

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3 hours ago, DaysOff said:

He can't get any better because that's pretty much impossible, so someone else will pay 300 MM for him to be worse. That's how I'm taking the loss pussy.

Yeah but he can be a little bit worse and still be a top 3 pitcher

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Assuming the Astros do not go after a more expensive pitche like Cole or Wheeler, I'd really like them to go after Kyle Gibson.  His breaking/offspeed stuff is elite for a starting pitcher.  His combined SwStr% on his slider, curve, and change was around 7-8th best among SP last year (depending on where you set your minimum filter), ahead of Verlander, Hamels, Strasburg, Buehler, etc.  It looks like he could benefit from reducing his four-seam fastball usage as well.  

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Reid was on the business side and Nolan's main role was sitting behind home plate at home games.  This will not effect anything on the field.  Also, having met Nolan Ryan before in a non-baseball setting, he's a pretty big asshole.  He has a nice racket going in this back and forth between the Astros and the Rangers.

Edited by kevwun
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Corpus can't go anywhere and the deal with the Express just started and has 3 more years left.  They'll stick with the Astros as long as they continue to do better than the Rangers.  Nolan is a mercenary when it comes to his allegiance.

Edited by kevwun
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I'm still baffled how Minute Maid Park doesn't have hot dog vendors walking up and down the seated sections and it seems like the majority of the beer vendors at the seats are cash only. How can you buy a Chik Fil A sandwich at your seats but not a damn hot dog.

  • Haha 1
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1 minute ago, Alvin89 said:

I'm still baffled how Minute Maid Park doesn't have hot dog vendors walking up and down the seated sections and it seems like the majority of the beer vendors at the seats are cash only. How can you buy a Chik Fil A sandwich at your seats but not a damn hot dog.

Ask Jared.

 

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13 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

Can Jared be any worse than Postolos. This is much ado about nothing. Crane deserves the benefit of the doubt. The baseball side of things remains unchanged.

Yes he can.  Quite easily.  Crane deserves the benefit of the doubt?  Ok John Conlee.

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1 hour ago, Alvin89 said:

I'm still baffled how Minute Maid Park doesn't have hot dog vendors walking up and down the seated sections and it seems like the majority of the beer vendors at the seats are cash only. How can you buy a Chik Fil A sandwich at your seats but not a damn hot dog.

And how can the Club's flagship radio station not have a strong enough signal to reach Katy at any point after the sun goes down.  If I ever ran into Reid at the games that was going to be the first question out of my mouth to him.  There may have been a good answer but I sure can't think of it if there is.

 

 

 

 

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I'm still baffled how Minute Maid Park doesn't have hot dog vendors walking up and down the seated sections and it seems like the majority of the beer vendors at the seats are cash only. How can you buy a Chik Fil A sandwich at your seats but not a damn hot dog.


With Nolan’s departure maybe we can finally get a James Coney Island at MMP.
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