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2020 Rain Thread


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Guest Lobo

Every once in awhile, I remember why we're sometimes called "The Violet Crown"  

Well, not us degenerates in South Austin, but you get the idea.  Have some rep for a great pic

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7 hours ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I’m not religious, but I know this is a fact.

"I believe in the soul, the cock, the pussy, the small of a woman's back, the hanging curve ball, high fiber, good scotch, that the novels of Susan Sontag are self-indulgent, overrated crap. I believe Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment outlawing Astroturf and the designated hitter. I believe in the sweet spot, soft-core pornography, opening your presents Christmas morning rather than Christmas Eve and I believe in long, slow, deep, soft, wet kisses that last three days.  And I believe OU sucks."

-- Crash Davis

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The rain has been so hit and, mostly, miss this year.  I saw late last week that Camp Mabry is at 19.40" for the year and ABIA is at 20.96"

I'm a little east of Pflugerville any my weather station is 13.60" for the year.  The tank is dropping already.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Only lasted from 1915-1945hrs, but it was almost one inch.  Here off MoPac just south of the river.  Worked out well we just happened to shut the sprinklers off this week.  

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High moved a bit east of us so flow came off of the Gulf.  There was enough from that disturbance in S. Texas to allow afternoon heating showers to pop up.  One got close to me then fizzled, that's the usual course.

Another chance for that happening tomorrow, then not gonna for 2-3 days.  Small chances open up again on the weekend.  They could increase.  Doubtful though.  If so I'll be back.

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That was completely weird in the Metroplex.

Started partly sunny with 20% chance of rain after 4PM.  Well it stayed sunny until sundown.  At some point in the afternoon I looked and evening chances had increased to 40%.

About 830, not long after sundown, we're in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with main risk 60mph gusts.

By 10 we're under a flash flood watch and got two or three solid hours of soaking rain.

Seems like most forecasts these days are "overpredictions," well this was a pretty severe "underprediction."  At least there wasn't much of anything damaging.

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Yeah, I need PhDhorn to make some sense of this.  It looks like 40-60%+ starting tomorrow through Friday night.  I am glad that might happen but I'm wondering are we talking about midday and midnight spurts (that's what she said), or just steady drizzles for 10 hours/day?  I know it's hard to say but that's why he gets paid the big bucks.  

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8 hours ago, Hate said:

Here are the projected totals through Friday from the GFS model:

0a51933a42a99049084a89e3cb489828.jpg



 

That spot in the far northern panhandle is desperately needed.  Felt so good to see significant rain last night.

I guess it might be too much to ask for it to come without hail, right?

Edited by Iceman
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They called it from last night - the complex was in the northern panhandle and came in right on schedule.  Euro model predicted a good amt.  As usual it was correct.  Most spots in Austin now are above June avg.  Just like that.

A lull next 2-3 days then rain chances ramp up again pretty well near/on the weekend.

In the blastfurnace thread, quoted this 10 days ago:

Not sure what they're smokin' over there, but the CPC 2-week is often really really good.  Like now.

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Increasing Heavy Rainfall Potential (this evening). - Jeff Linder

Short range model trends are starting to paint a concerning picture for this evening as a slow moving low level boundary moves into the area and helps to focus a west to east oriented line of thunderstorms. Recent trends and high resolution models are suggestive of potential training bands of heavy rainfall this evening into the overnight hours.
 
Given parameters in place including deep tropical moisture, slowing storm motions, and a good feed of low level flow off the Gulf, excessive rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible and this will lead to rapid street flooding. If storms anchor or slow over an area for a few hours total could quickly reach 4-6 inches with higher isolated amounts.

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From the NWS:
 

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ213&warncounty=TXC201&firewxzone=TXZ213&local_place1=3 Miles WSW The Woodlands TX&product1=Flash+Flood+Watch&lat=30.1458&lon=-95.5311#.XvI85iU1glQ

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436-438-240130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0002.200624T0000Z-200624T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-
Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland
Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal
Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal
Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Caldwell, Stowell,
Liberty, The Woodlands, Dickinson, Devers, Anahuac, Coldspring,
Bellville, Bay City, Trinity, Shepherd, Columbus, Sugar Land,
College Station, Hempstead, Dayton, Huntsville, Baytown, Crockett,
Wharton, Conroe, Missouri City, Pecan Grove, Palacios, League City,
La Marque, Bryan, Lake Jackson, Mont Belvieu, Old River-Winfree,
Pasadena, Freeport, First Colony, Clute, Navasota, Livingston, Texas
City, Brenham, Waller, Eagle Lake, Galveston, Houston, Prairie View,
Groveton, Sealy, Rosenberg, Friendswood, Winnie, Alvin, Ganado,
Corrigan, El Campo, Mission Bend, Edna, Cleveland, Angleton,
Somerville, Weimar, and Madisonville
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Texas and
  southeast Texas, including the following areas, in south central
  Texas, Coastal Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas,
  Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal
  Galveston, Coastal Harris, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado, Fort Bend,
  Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula, Grimes, Houston, Inland
  Brazoria, Inland Galveston, Inland Harris, Inland Matagorda,
  Madison, Matagorda Islands, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk,
  San Jacinto, Southern Liberty, Trinity, Walker, Waller, Washington
  and Wharton.

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning

* A line of strong thunderstorms will develop over southeast Texas
  this evening and slowly move eastward through Wednesday morning. A
  combination between the slow moving nature of the thunderstorms,
  back building/training of thunderstorms, and recent rainfall over
  the area has led to an increasing threat of flash flooding.
  Rainfall rates may reach one to three inches per hour or more at
  times. There remains some uncertainty in the timing and location
  of the line of strong thunderstorms. On average, two to four
  inches of rain is expected through tomorrow morning with isolated
  areas of six to eight inches possible.

* These storms with heavy rainfall may be capable of flooding
  roadways. Low water crossings may flood becoming impassable and
  dangerous. Small creeks and bayous may see minor rises.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to
Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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