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So why are we worried about stupid people not taking a shot that can save their lives?

1.  Vaccines get taken by smart people

2.  Vaccines don't get taken by stupid people

3.  Covid still spreads but generally more amongst stupid people and when smart people get it they don't get seriously ill/die

4.  Stupid People Die

5.  Darwin profits

Notice...no ????? in that scenario

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4 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

So why are we worried about stupid people not taking a shot that can save their lives?

1.  Vaccines get taken by smart people

2.  Vaccines don't get taken by stupid people

3.  Covid still spreads but generally more amongst stupid people and when smart people get it they don't get seriously ill/die

4.  Stupid People Die

5.  Darwin profits

Notice...no ????? in that scenario

That would work great so long as it doesn't mutate when spreading amongst the morons and become vaccine resistant.  And it would, because Murphy is an asshole.

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5 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

So why are we worried about stupid people not taking a shot that can save their lives?

Because there is always a certain percentage of the population that can't take the vaccine. My MIL is immunocompromised due to cancer treatment and can't take it. We rely on herd immunity for those people.

But yeah, fuck Cletus who thinks the Gubmint is out to get him. We agree on that.

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4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Because there is always a certain percentage of the population that can't take the vaccine. My MIL is immunocompromised due to cancer treatment and can't take it. We rely on herd immunity for those people.

That sucks. Those are the people that are really going to be the victims of the anti-vax idiocy.

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5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Because there is always a certain percentage of the population that can't take the vaccine. My MIL is immunocompromised due to cancer treatment and can't take it. We rely on herd immunity for those people.

But yeah, fuck Cletus who thinks the Gubmint is out to get him. We agree on that.

It’s not the Cleti from Wichita Falls who are refusing to vax.

Or at the very least, in addition to the Cleti it’s primarily young people and people of color who make up the majority of individuals who don’t want the shot.

If the O/U is 75% of US citizens eventually willing to vaccinate, I would take the under.

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23 hours ago, GRHorn said:

 

Did you hear what he said after the part BG quoted?  They are still evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccine as it pertains to infection and spread, as opposed to clinical sickness.  Effectiveness against clinical sickness was the only evaluation, as an attempt to get the drugs to market ASAP. Now they are doing some of the other analysis that would normally have been done prior to agency approval. Fauci and cdc want us to continue as we are until these other analyses are completed. 
 

I think the correct thought process is all there, it’s just messaged poorly. 
 

i also think the additional data are coming in already and showing efficacy, as expected, against infection at a carrier/spreader level.  When they are confident in that data is when they will talk about removal of restriction mandates and recommendations. 
 

that’s what I get from all of this stuff, anyway. 

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16 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

That would work great so long as it doesn't mutate when spreading amongst the morons and become vaccine resistant.  And it would, because Murphy is an asshole.

I’m still curious about how vaccine resistant mutation would occur. The vaccine mimics the spike protein that is the virus’ path of entry into host cells for replication. If that mutates, it would have to do so in a way that still allows it access to the cells, but in a shape or configuration that is different enough that the antibodies and T cells created by the vaccine don’t recognize it.  That feels unlikely, and was the reason they used the spike protein in vax development, but I don’t believe I’ve read or heard a virologist or epidemiologist say either way. 

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8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m still curious about how vaccine resistant mutation would occur. The vaccine mimics the spike protein that is the virus’ path of entry into host cells for replication. If that mutates, it would have to do so in a way that still allows it access to the cells, but in a shape or configuration that is different enough that the antibodies and T cells created by the vaccine don’t recognize it.  That feels unlikely, and was the reason they used the spike protein in vax development, but I don’t believe I’ve read or heard a virologist or epidemiologist say either way. 

Fesy.gif

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m still curious about how vaccine resistant mutation would occur. The vaccine mimics the spike protein that is the virus’ path of entry into host cells for replication. If that mutates, it would have to do so in a way that still allows it access to the cells, but in a shape or configuration that is different enough that the antibodies and T cells created by the vaccine don’t recognize it.  That feels unlikely, and was the reason they used the spike protein in vax development, but I don’t believe I’ve read or heard a virologist or epidemiologist say either way. 

The vaccine targets the binding region of the spike protein. There will be a polyclonal mix of antibodies against this region meaning there are many different antibodies against the same target. Some may target a 5 amino acid region while others target much larger regions. This means that it is difficult for the virus to get around this defense and still get into the cell via the ACE2 receptor. However, in theory, the virus may be able to mutate enough amino acids to circumvent antibodies but still be able to enter. Theoretically, we may have antibodies that interfere with ACE2 function, also. Anyway, the point is that in theory, a new vaccine may need to be developed to target the mutated virus and theoretically, we may want to target a larger region of the spike protein or add new targets like the coronavirus helicase and S protein.

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Lots of surprises on that graph.  The one thing that has come into focus though is why certain people have suddenly shut the fuck up about Operation Warp Speed.  

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5 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

All of those numbers are astonishing. Interesting that almost everyone I know has been vaccinated when able or plans to be vaccinated. I guess some people are not telling the truth. 

 

I've experienced the healthcare worker thing anecdotally, especially the techs and assistants. I bet our doctors would say they've seen the same thing. 

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11 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

All of those numbers are astonishing. Interesting that almost everyone I know has been vaccinated when able or plans to be vaccinated. I guess some people are not telling the truth. 

It's a big world out there and I would venture to guess just by your presence here on this particular message board there is a good deal of the "people" that you have little to no interaction with.  

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17 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Health care workers and Republican numbers are astonishing to me. 

The entire poll is interesting:

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor/

"Majorities Of Black, Hispanic Adults Say They Don’t Have Enough Information About Vaccine Side Effects Or Effectiveness"

Again. Messaging has been shit.

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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I've experienced the healthcare worker thing anecdotally, especially the techs and assistants. I bet our doctors would say they've seen the same thing. 

I wonder if the HC workers response is because they have to deal with the bureaucracy/red tape of the Government involvement in healthcare and don't have faith in it. I would be jaded being in their shoes.

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3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I wonder if the HC workers response is because they have to deal with the bureaucracy/red tape of the Government involvement in healthcare and don't have faith in it. I would be jaded being in their shoes.

Very possibly. I believe there are also a lot of minorities in the lower-end healthcare roles like techs and assistants too. At least from what I've seen here in Texas. 

I do believe the majority of them will end up getting it. The health workers that I know that haven't taken it yet, which is quite a few, almost all say they'll eventually get it.

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8 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

It's a big world out there and I would venture to guess just by your presence here on this particular message board there is a good deal of the "people" that you have little to no interaction with.  

That is the truth. Hard to get your mind around it sometimes. 

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38 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I wonder if the HC workers response is because they have to deal with the bureaucracy/red tape of the Government involvement in healthcare and don't have faith in it. I would be jaded being in their shoes.

Or have seen how the sausage is made...

I trust our healthcare system, but human ineptitude is pretty much universal.

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38 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I wonder if the HC workers response is because they have to deal with the bureaucracy/red tape of the Government involvement in healthcare and don't have faith in it. I would be jaded being in their shoes.

Talking with doctor friends about the reason for this, and their response has all been some version of, "The percentage of techs and nurses working in healthcare who went to med school is the exact same percentage as those who don't work in healthcare at all.  Even among the doctors, most of them don't know shit about epidemiology.  In other words, they're just as susceptible to online conspiracy nonsense as anyone else.  The public shouldn't be taking any direction from what healthcare workers do or don't do.  They don't know any more than anyone else, and the percentage of them that are ignorant mouth breathers is no different than that of the general populace."

Makes sense to me.  

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17 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Man this is like the trifecta guys. PFE vax shows high first dose protection @ 21 days, prevention of both asymptomatic and symptomatic disease (fuck your transmissions), and covers an area where B1117 was primary variant in circulation...

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790399

Methods: The SIREN study is a prospective cohort study among staff working in publicly funded hospitals. Baseline risk factors, vaccination status (from 8/12/2020-5/2/2021), and symptoms are recorded at 2 weekly intervals and all SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and antibody test results documented. A mixed effect proportional hazards frailty model using a Poisson distribution was used to calculate hazard ratios to compare time to infection in unvaccinated and vaccinated participants to estimate the impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine on all (asymptomatic and symptomatic) infection.

Findings: Vaccine coverage was 89% on 5/2/2021. Significantly lower coverage was associated with prior infection (aOR 0.59 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.64), female (aOR 0.72, 95% CI 0.63-0.82), aged under 35 years, being from minority ethnic groups (especially Black, aOR 0.26, 95% CI 0.21-0.32), porters/security guards (aOR 0.61, 95% CI 0.42-0.90),or midwife (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.97), and living in more deprived neighbourhoods (IMD 1 (most) vs. 5 (least) (aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65-0.87). A single dose of BNT162b2 vaccine demonstrated vaccine effectiveness of 72% (95% CI 58-86) 21 days after first dose and 86% (95% CI 76-97) seven days after two doses in the antibody negative cohort.

Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that the BNT162b2 vaccine effectively prevents both symptomatic and asymptomatic infection in working age adults; this cohort was vaccinated when the dominant variant in circulation was B1.1.7 and demonstrates effectiveness against this variant.

PFE doing a good job making me want their vax vs moderna or JnJ.  Got scheduled to get dose 1 next week through CVS

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Just now, babysdaddy said:

PFE doing a good job making me want their vax vs moderna or JnJ.  Got scheduled to get dose 1 next week through CVS

Just my opinion, take whatever vax is available to you.  But if you put a gun to my head and made me rank order them, this would be it...

1. PFE (21d second shot, high efficacy)

2. MRNA (28d second shot, high efficacy) *differentiation imo is just the 21 vs 28 day thing). 

3. JNJ (one shot, mod-high efficacy, no real world data at this point, note I haven't read their FDA filing yet to really assess in depth). 

 

 

That's just a rank order from my individual perspective, but I would feel OK with any of the above.  In reality the rankings are like 1a, 1b, 1c imo. And it might be reasonable to move JNJ higher from a public health perspective given the logistics of administration/storage and one shot admin. 

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21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Just my opinion, take whatever vax is available to you.  But if you put a gun to my head and made me rank order them, this would be it...

1. PFE (21d second shot, high efficacy)

2. MRNA (28d second shot, high efficacy) *differentiation imo is just the 21 vs 28 day thing). 

3. JNJ (one shot, mod-high efficacy, no real world data at this point, note I haven't read their FDA filing yet to really assess in depth). 

 

 

That's just a rank order from my individual perspective, but I would feel OK with any of the above.  In reality the rankings are like 1a, 1b, 1c imo. And it might be reasonable to move JNJ higher from a public health perspective given the logistics of administration/storage and one shot admin. 


I've had two separate friends recently tell me they'll take the J&J shot only, because it's a more traditional dead virus vaccine. Interesting given that there's been some chatter about people not wanting to take J&J because the perception is that it's not as effective. I expect the J&J rollout to go just fine. Lots of people like that, lots of young people who won't care, and then there are going to be plenty of people who get a note from their CVS or doctor that their vaccine is ready and don't even know the difference between the three.

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4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

We do. Here's the CDC's Operating Plan for 2019 / 2020.

https://www.cdc.gov/budget/documents/fy2020/fy-2020-cdc-operating-plan.pdf

In 2020, they spent $622,372,000 on "Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases" and $850,200,000 "Public Health Preparedness and Response"

That's almost 1.5 billion dollars. 

ALMOST $1.5 BILLION DOLLARS?!?!

do you think that is:

a) too much

b) the right amount

c) not enough

here's some other numbers that might help you complete your multiple choice exam:

a) $686 Billion - 2019 US Military Budget

b) 620,000 - number of Americans killed in wars between 1775-2020 

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As usual, it's not how much we spend but on what we spend it.  The DoD is pouring hundreds of billions into weapons systems that have no place in the 21st century.  Apparently there's a really big tank battle that's set to happen any day now.  Our Cyber Defenses are a joke, but we found money to invent a Space Force which is completely redundant to Air Force already does.  The U.S. Department of Transportation and Energy are throwing billions at antiquated energy sources and road systems that will be functionally obsolete in a decade.  Meanwhile our airports and electrical grids are apparently made out of legos.  And much of our law enforcement infrastructure and resources are still largely pointed at catching Muslims with potable bomb water at the airport when domestic terrorism is at the largest peak in U.S. history.  

the NIH and CDC have to reboot so much of their research every single year based on seasonal mutations to illnesses like the Flu.  And apparently now they need a room full of guys just thinking of weird combinations of animals to eat and what viruses might spawn from that.  Seems like a pretty brutal, nearly impossible task, which I'm guessing warrants that large budget.  I'm curious to see what their budget looks like after Covid-19 is largely over.  But yeah, how'd you like to graduate medical school, then earn a PhD in bio-chemistry, post-doctorate fellowship in Epidemiology at the WHO, only to spend your days sitting in Atlanta or D.C. just modeling out what happens if you eat various exotic animals.  

"What was it the wet market had for dinner tonight?"

"Well, they had a choice.  Steak or Fish."

"Yes, I remember.  I had the Bat."  

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Just my opinion, take whatever vax is available to you.  But if you put a gun to my head and made me rank order them, this would be it...

1. PFE (21d second shot, high efficacy)

2. MRNA (28d second shot, high efficacy) *differentiation imo is just the 21 vs 28 day thing). 

3. JNJ (one shot, mod-high efficacy, no real world data at this point, note I haven't read their FDA filing yet to really assess in depth). 

 

 

That's just a rank order from my individual perspective, but I would feel OK with any of the above.  In reality the rankings are like 1a, 1b, 1c imo. And it might be reasonable to move JNJ higher from a public health perspective given the logistics of administration/storage and one shot admin. 

I had been expecting to take the JNJ for some of the reasons Brad mentioned.  But I also like the mRNA versions for booster/variant protection ability.  

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2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I've had two separate friends recently tell me they'll take the J&J shot only, because it's a more traditional dead virus vaccine. Interesting given that there's been some chatter about people not wanting to take J&J because the perception is that it's not as effective. I expect the J&J rollout to go just fine. Lots of people like that, lots of young people who won't care, and then there are going to be plenty of people who get a note from their CVS or doctor that their vaccine is ready and don't even know the difference between the three.

Jokes on them. I don't know if you want to break it to them or not, but the JNJ vaccine is not a "traditional" attenuated virus vaccine.  All of the vaccines authorized in US (including JNJ which is now pending authorization) rely on relatively novel mechanisms of action.  I think that the Chinese were looking at an attenuated virus, but have not really kept up with it. Two main classes of authorized vaccines at this point:

1. MRNA technology - PFE and MRNA. Very similar vaccines, I think that the key difference is what they wrap the mRNA in to protect it for delivery.

2. Adenovirus vector technology - JNJ, AZN, and Russian Sputnik. Each use slightly different adenovirus vectors, or combinations of adenovirus vectors. 

 

Traditional attenuated virus vaccines are dead versions of the disease-causing virus.  The vector vaccines use an unrelated virus to deliver the genetic payload coding for a protein expressed by the disease causing virus. Basically using one virus to fight another virus. Frankly, the vector vaccines are the creepiest of the two techs.  But don't tell your buddies that if that is going to make them reconsider vaccination.  The real leap forward here imo is the mRNA vaccines. LA vaccines take a lot of time to culture. Not sure where the vectors fall in terms of genetic code to shots in arms, but the mRNA vaccines have an astonishingly quick time from when the nerds know the sequence and tweaks necessary to stabilize the protein product to viable vaccine candidate to put in arms. Advantage mRNA, imo.   

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4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

I had been expecting to take the JNJ for some of the reasons Brad mentioned.  But I also like the mRNA versions for booster/variant protection ability.  

My initial inclination is to prefer the JNJ vax for younger, lower risk individuals.  It's the pandemic buster from public health perspective. Single shot, easy logistics, easy storage.  Roll that shit out broadly. 

I like PFE and MRNA for higher risk groups, and people who are highly engaged and are going to be on top of things.   

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That would work great so long as it doesn't mutate when spreading amongst the morons and become vaccine resistant.  And it would, because Murphy is an asshole.

Because there is always a certain percentage of the population that can't take the vaccine. My MIL is immunocompromised due to cancer treatment and can't take it. We rely on herd immunity for those people.
But yeah, fuck Cletus who thinks the Gubmint is out to get him. We agree on that.

That sucks. Those are the people that are really going to be the victims of the anti-vax idiocy.

These. If it was as simple as stupid people making their own choice and only impacting themselves, I’m ask for that. But there are a lot of people who can suffer unnecessarily that way, and it affords the virus more opportunities to mutate into a form that more seriously compromises vaccines. Ultimately the defining attribute is probably selfishness.
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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 


These. If it was as simple as stupid people making their own choice and only impacting themselves, I’m ask for that. But there are a lot of people who can suffer unnecessarily that way, and it affords the virus more opportunities to mutate into a form that more seriously compromises vaccines. Ultimately the defining attribute is probably selfishness.

 

 

I'd be fine with rounding up antivaxxers and tossing them into a walled off section of the Nevada desert to fend for themselves.  No vaccines required for admission!

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It’s not the Cleti from Wichita Falls who are refusing to vax.
Or at the very least, in addition to the Cleti it’s primarily young people and people of color who make up the majority of individuals who don’t want the shot.
If the O/U is 75% of US citizens eventually willing to vaccinate, I would take the under.

Important distinction: The hard no’s are largely white muh freedom q anon dipshits. That’s a pretty small slice of the population, fortunately. A lot of people of color have inhabited the wait and see space as opposed to the absolutely not category. A falling in not getting more people on board quicker, absolutely, but very different from 30-40 percent of the population being staunchly against the shot.
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I’m still curious about how vaccine resistant mutation would occur. The vaccine mimics the spike protein that is the virus’ path of entry into host cells for replication. If that mutates, it would have to do so in a way that still allows it access to the cells, but in a shape or configuration that is different enough that the antibodies and T cells created by the vaccine don’t recognize it.  That feels unlikely, and was the reason they used the spike protein in vax development, but I don’t believe I’ve read or heard a virologist or epidemiologist say either way. 

I’m not credentialed to say specifically, but we already know it’s occurred with the South African variant. Even the MRNA vaccines produce significantly fewer antibodies against that, efficacy of J&J declined noticeably, and it flat wrecked the AZ shot. How it works I’m not sure, but it’s already happened so we know it can.
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10 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Because there is always a certain percentage of the population that can't take the vaccine. My MIL is immunocompromised due to cancer treatment and can't take it. We rely on herd immunity for those people.

But yeah, fuck Cletus who thinks the Gubmint is out to get him. We agree on that.

What percentage of the population would you say is immunocompromised/unable to take the vaccine?  Bulletin of Atomic Scientists states it's 10mm or about 3% (I assume they conduct these studies in between detonating hydrogen bombs).  So odds are strong we all have somebody in our extended family that is unable to take the vaccine for this reason alone. 

So there's another part of the messaging that can improve to Cleti:  Take the vaccine the instant you're eligible not only to protect the most immuno-vulnerable among us but also because they're counting on your to get it in their stead; they would gladly trade places with you so it's the least you can do.  Something like that anyway. 

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Very possibly. I believe there are also a lot of minorities in the lower-end healthcare roles like techs and assistants too. At least from what I've seen here in Texas. 
I do believe the majority of them will end up getting it. The health workers that I know that haven't taken it yet, which is quite a few, almost all say they'll eventually get it.

Anecdotally, there is some flat out ignorance. I know a LTC worker who hasn’t got the vaccine because he doesn’t want to get sick. He fundamentally did not understand what a vaccine was or how it worked. I think I got the point across but who knows.

This isn’t a RN or anything though, just whatever lower level position they’ll hire basically anyone for and pay them starvation wages. I’d be curious to see the breakout by education/credentials/position within healthcare.
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On 2/24/2021 at 8:07 PM, gmr548 said:



This isn’t a RN or anything though, just whatever lower level position they’ll hire basically anyone for and pay them starvation wages. I’d be curious to see the breakout by education/credentials/position within healthcare.

Nurses be cray. It is known. 

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