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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

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7 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

 


If this thing starts killing millions of people, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the FDA will almost rubber stamp anything that shows potential. And other countries will just go straight to human trials

 

It will take, at minimum, 18 months just to ramp up production and distribution enough to matter

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2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

In nominal terms, yes.  

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1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

And by “nominal,” you of course mean “the number of human beings currently alive who will be killed by this virus within the next 12 months.”

By nominal I mean, "the actual number dead", yes.  Percentage-wise, of course, the Black Death was much more merciless.  

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3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

That’s pointless extrapolation given how little we know about it. Also we don’t know how it infects an entire populace living in a place with first-world healthcare and air quality.

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1 minute ago, Helobious said:

That’s pointless extrapolation given how little we know about it. Also we don’t know how it infects an entire populace living in a place with first-world healthcare and air quality.

Our healthcare system is not setup to handle a shitload of people who need to be quarantined with a good 2-3 weeks of hospitalization.    We don’t have massive apartment complexes that can have their entrances welded shut, nor do we have the resources to do massive geographical quarantines.  

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

By nominal I mean, "the actual number dead", yes.  Percentage-wise, of course, the Black Death was much more merciless.  

I know what you meant.  Just being a smart-ass.  

This is obviously not the second Black Death.  But in absolute terms it may end up being the most fatal pandemic since the Spanish Flu.  The world hasn’t seen anything like this in a century.  

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our healthcare system is not setup to handle a shitload of people who need to be quarantined with a good 2-3 weeks of hospitalization.    We don’t have massive apartment complexes that can have their entrances welded shut, nor do we have the resources to do massive geographical quarantines.  

unused nuke silos. or cruise ships.... 

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10 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That’s pointless extrapolation given how little we know about it. Also we don’t know how it infects an entire populace living in a place with first-world healthcare and air quality.

All true.  We also don’t know what the mortality rate will be when the number of serious cases exceeds hospital capacity.  So while it’s possible this may not be as bad as current data suggests, it’s also possible it may be worse.  But it’s interesting to put this thing into context assuming current data are accurate and applicable globally.

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1 hour ago, Loco said:

Definitely some shit going on there...  We caught it early!

 

Probably 10?  Of all the times to blatantly lie about something, why does he have to lie about this?   For fuck’s sake. We have 36 cases alone from the cruise ship.   

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

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1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

Just read an Atlantic article in which a Harvard epidemiologist predicted 40-70% of the global population will be infected within the next year.  At a 2% mortality rate, that amounts to approximately 60-110 million deaths.

Those are Black Death-level numbers.

 

But but but, I read the Flu is the real worry

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12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

anyone else listening to the CDC live stream? hard to hear, but they are telling communities to start planning and preparing. 

Seems like a dumb plan to tell individuals to start calling the school. She said it’s what she did this morning. Ridiculous 

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4 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

Seems like a dumb plan to tell individuals to start calling the school. She said it’s what she did this morning. Ridiculous 

or schools could get active when they start getting shit ton of calls. good thing is spring break is a few weeks away. 

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

or schools could get active when they start getting shit ton of calls. good thing is spring break is a few weeks away. 

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

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3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

I knew my lifelong practice of reclusiveness and aversion to other humans would prepare me for something, someday. 

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1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

All true.  We also don’t know what the mortality rate will be when the number of serious cases exceeds hospital capacity.  So while it’s possible this may not be as bad as current data suggests, it’s also possible it may be worse.  But it’s interesting to put this thing into context assuming current data are accurate and applicable globally.

What we do have now that we didn’t during the Spanish flu and plague is advanced science that could develop a usable vaccine in a few months that would curtail the spread. 
But the increased ease of global travel now probably accelerates the global spread.  It’s like a race. 

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19 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

Yeah, usually spring break is good at breaking the flu cycle. This year, Spring Break may accelerate Covid spread due to the international travel.

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47 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Is that a good thing?  Lots of people taking trips to places where tens of thousands of other people will be, crammed into restaurants, bars, clubs, etc.?  Could be how it makes it's way into a lot of communities.  

If there aren't already cases in Austin by then, SXSW is when it will occur.

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1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

All true.  We also don’t know what the mortality rate will be when the number of serious cases exceeds hospital capacity.  So while it’s possible this may not be as bad as current data suggests, it’s also possible it may be worse.  But it’s interesting to put this thing into context assuming current data are accurate and applicable globally.

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

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1 minute ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

^this, this, this.

 

I was in Vegas last weekend with a bunch of brits screaming and spitting on everything.  I am either dead and don't already know it, or will recover.

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3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

At least baseball season started! If I am going to be quarantined prefer to have that on! 

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3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

It’s hard to imagine it getting to apocalyptic levels like you and others on here predict. For example I’d be shocked if it isn’t currently being transmitted openly across the US. I wouldn’t even be surprised if I have been exposed to it already. Seems like other viruses, it’ll kill some people, some people won’t even get sick, and everything in between. 

The issue seems to be roughly 20% of cases being serious enough to require hospitalization.

If there are 100 million infected, and 20 million need to be in the hospital there will be issues.

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