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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Just now, Hagbard Celine said:

i think 76% is way too high *IF* hotspots are quarantined.

i just got a mail that one of my chinese suppliers is restarting manufacturing/production, for delivery mid-late april, which means with normal boat time they have to already be "open" or "gearing up" and they wouldn't do this unless the workers were present, available and cleared.

With the new Jersey Port authority announcing infections in their workforce and leadership, it may be prudent to plan in shipping delays at the port, or clearing customs

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Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc. I just don’t see the real threat

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8 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing

WuHan, to what degree, we don't know, and won't know for some time.

Italy, if the tweet last night is to be believed, are/were having to make battlefield triage decisions about who to intubate and who dies on the stretcher based on age and pre-existing conditions.

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5 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. 
 

Have you paid attention to what the countries have done in order to "get it under control"?  China literally locked down their population.  Never going to happen here.  South Korea is a well oiled machine who was inifinitely more prepared than we will likely ever be.  Again, cannot be replicated here.   Italy is now attempting to 'get it under control' by shutting down the entire country.  Success TBD.

So exactly how do you anticipate the USA 'gets it under control in a week or two" and if so, with the measures that would need to be enacted in order to accomplish that, elaborate on why the 'panic here is disproportionate to the reality".  Show your work.

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8 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc. I just don’t see the real threat

With all due respect, you're misinformed. Take a look at the links that have been posted regarding exponential growth. Italy is letting people just die without treatment in the floor of the hospital because their health care system is literally collapsing. That doesn't sound like "starting to get there." China imposed draconian quarantines that we cannot. South Korea and Japan implemented early cancellations and quarantines, and SK has widespread testing. We have none of those things. 

Also Italy is approaching 10,000 cases and the curve is rocketing up. That's not "a couple thousand." 

Immediate measures are needed to slow infections to prevent the complete overrun of our medical system. 

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7 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc. I just don’t see the real threat

The big difference between the nations you mentioned and our nation's response is that we aren't taking any steps to measure the outbreak, to contain the outbreak, or to motivate the public to follow health best practices. 

The leader of our federal government has been saying that it's just a flu, he's actively admitted that he doesn't want to test cruise ships for CV19 because it will "make his numbers go up", and don't want to give travel guidance to avoid travel if you're elderly or immunocompromised. 

Now, none of those things on their own are that big of a deal in a vacuum. But combined, it can lead to people letting their guard down, to going to Disneyland anyways during spring break, to thinking that it's not that big a deal because the people in charge say it is so. This is not a fact or evidence based way to view the CV19 pandemic. 

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19 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Most would, most of the time, once the seriousness of the spread settles in.  Probably about a week or two away from that.  Just need video of a few overwhelmed US hospitals, ER's turning away patients or lines out into the parking lot, plus the inevitable spike in numbers as testing finally ramps up.  We're headed for an Italy phase.

Errr... so your preference is that we wait for it to get really bad so that people take is seriously rather than just use the power of the government to make them take it seriously? That seems more than a bit crazy.  

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16 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... 

So how would you characterize Iran?

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4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The big difference between the nations you mentioned and our nation's response is that we aren't taking any steps to measure the outbreak, to contain the outbreak, or to motivate the public to follow health best practices. 

The leader of our federal government has been saying that it's just a flu, he's actively admitted that he doesn't want to test cruise ships for CV19 because it will "make his numbers go up", and don't want to give travel guidance to avoid travel if you're elderly or immunocompromised. 

Now, none of those things on their own are that big of a deal in a vacuum. But combined, it can lead to people letting their guard down, to going to Disneyland anyways during spring break, to thinking that it's not that big a deal because the people in charge say it is so. This is not a fact or evidence based way to view the CV19 pandemic. 

Just to really put a fine point on it:

 

That's actively downplaying the pandemic and advocating literally doing nothing about it. That's fucking concerning. 

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I’m just spitballing here, but I would bet that if they want to, they can install draconian quarantine measures in the USA like they did in China. I’m sure the plans already exist, and the military personnel and bullets required are also there. They haven’t done it because “must protect corporate America above all else”, not because they can’t.

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15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

CDC has tested 1,707 through yesterday.  Claims they don’t know many were tested by cities/states.    They are still lowballing the number of cases on their website, and making sure Americans infected on cruise liners or overseas aren’t counted towards the official total, even if their infected asses are sitting on American soil.

Yesterday, US Surgeon General said they had 75,000 ready, would have 2 million ready today, and 4 million ready by end of week (in partnership with university, city, state, corporate partners), but I’m not confident they are interested in testing.  

If the tests are there they’ll be using the tests.  Fuck the feds.  We are doing our own thing at local state level.  Cutting off visitors from nursing homes.  Taking temps of ANYONE that walks into these places / nursing units at hospitals etc.  We can all do our part - just give us tests.  I guarantee labcorp and quest will be churning them out soon.  Fuck the feds incompetence.  Plenty we can do on our own.  
 

edit: No CR edition 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Just now, XYZ said:

I’m just spitballing here, but I would bet that if they want to, they can install draconian quarantine measures in the USA like they did in China. I’m sure the plans already exist, and the military personnel and bullets required are also there. They haven’t done it because “must protect corporate America above all else”, not because they can’t.

I think those plans are only for zombie/nuclear events.

Our society is not constructed to deal with anything different than the status quo.

The statement "there is no social safety net" is not political, it's socio-economic.

We need to run all sporting events TV-only (rather than say behind closed doors no spectators) and close all schools, and shut down air travel for 2 weeks.

Those measures would obliterate the R0 trajectory but our power structure is paralyzed with stupidity, delusion and self-interest, and 90% of the country would rebel and it would cost the incumbent the election.

Until they see people dying on gurneys for lack of hardware.

The plans we have in place are only for "broken" events and this isn't that.  Yet.

NO POLITICIANS WERE NAMED IN THIS POST.

 

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51 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

I hope not.  That's the kind of overkill response (phrasing) that could actually lead to violence.  Better to do a soft voluntary quarantine.  It won't be as effective, but will still make a big difference.  You've got to let those working critical jobs get to work, people get to the store if they need food, etc.

Edit:  Though let's see what the reality of NY's containment efforts are, versus how it is initially reported in our idiot media and social media numbskulls.

Lol. There will be very little if any violence towards the military. Most gun nuts & militia types will throw their weapons down & surrender at the first sign of a challenge, despite how much they say otherwise. There’s a huge difference between a paper target and one with a weapon pointed back at you. 

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is a goddamn statement from the mother fucking President about the virus. In what fucking universe does it not belong here? 

 

4 hours ago, immamac said:

Next person who says a politicians fucking name in this god damned thread is getting a week off.

DO NOT SAY POLITICIANS NAMES, DO NOT USE POLITICAL PARTIES AS QUALIFIERS OR ADJECTIVES - USE THEIR CURRENT POSITION IN GOVERNMENT ONLY

Examples:
Trump is such a dumbass and got us into this stupid mess and all the democrats that enabled him along the way are fucking part of the problem too!

BANNED

Our POTUS is such a dumbass and got us into this stupid mess and THE SENATE AND HIS CABINET MEMBERS enabled them along the way - the whole government is a mess!

NOT BANNED

 

see above

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6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m just spitballing here, but I would bet that if they want to, they can install draconian quarantine measures in the USA like they did in China. I’m sure the plans already exist, and the military personnel and bullets required are also there. They haven’t done it because “must protect corporate America above all else”, not because they can’t.

No, they don't have the assets for that. Period. China has PLA soldiers running around spying on everyone. Italy has the carabinieri, and they aren't really enforcing anything anyway. 

I would go through the numbers for how many active duty there are, how many are deployable, where they're located, etc. I could point to the number of roads in and out of a place like Houston. I could discuss posse commitatus. But for a million reasons, you are simply wrong. It's certainly not anything to do with corporate america for the love of all that is holy you are insane.

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13 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m just spitballing here, but I would bet that if they want to, they can install draconian quarantine measures in the USA like they did in China. I’m sure the plans already exist, and the military personnel and bullets required are also there. They haven’t done it because “must protect corporate America above all else”, not because they can’t.

Yeah for one the logistics are hugely difficult, much more so here than in China. As has been posted many times, try placing a complete lockdown on Houston. For two, there were bullseyes in China where it was originating. It's all over the place here. What places are you qurantining and from where? We aren't testing, so quarantining will lock some uninfected in with the infected.

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9 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

What's the effect on the Homeless? Those guys have the worst hygiene imaginable, and I don't foresee them listening to authorities. 

Since the cruise ship industry is getting a bail out, maybe fill all those empty cabins.

 

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2 minutes ago, Girdwood said:

Um, don't fucking post it? It's really not that difficult.

Yes, we can't possibly stomach reading a comment about coronavirus from the fucking President of the USA in a thread about the coronavirus.  

Think about that.

Actually, don't think about that, because you seem to be a moron and you'd only hurt yourself if you did.

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52 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i think 76% is way too high *IF* hotspots are quarantined.

i just got a mail that one of my chinese suppliers is restarting manufacturing/production, for delivery mid-late april, which means with normal boat time they have to already be "open" or "gearing up" and they wouldn't do this unless the workers were present, available and cleared.



Skip to 18:45 for talk on herd immunity.

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50 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc. I just don’t see the real threat

I'll take "People who don't understand how exponential growth works for $200".

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Testing capacity is coming online.  We're going to see yuge increases in case counts. Nothing to lose minds about, but minds will be lost. Should be a fun weekend setting up for spring break. 

i've posted it here, and others have as well, but we are only testing really sick people and those who have had contact with known cases. what's to say this thing isn't already at a 20%-25% penetration rate for the whole population, or even higher, but it just doesn't make most people really sick?

i think for me, it's the lack of coherent global messaging. "look, this is the array of symptoms of this thing, and if you any combo of three, it's time to get tested."

as it is, what i can gather is that it's possible to be completely asymptomatic, yet carrying this thing. 14 days seems to be the quarantine period, but we really don't know. 5 days to produce symptoms on average, but we really don't know.

for something that has been around for going on 3 months now, we don't know a whole lot about this thing.

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57 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Perhaps I’m just misinformed but it sure seems the panic is totally out of proportion to the reality

Every place this thing has spiked has seemingly been able to get it under control in a week or two. There is yet to be a place where cases and conditions are just totally collapsing.... China figured it out, SKorea did it, Italy is starting to get there. Germany and France will as well.

At the end of the day, what is a couple thousand cases to SKorea, Italy, Germany and France? It’s nothing. Even if we hit 100k here that’s minimal.

I’m having a hard time reconciling the actual numbers to the panic. This type of panic I’d expect the numbers to be in the millions by now and certainly not curtailing so quickly in highly affected areas.

I think relative precaution and some cancellations makes sense, self quarantines, etc.

China locked down somewhere around 75m people to figure it out. Literally lockdown.

South Korea has tested more than 140,000+ people and 10k / day and worked specifically to limit spreading

Italy just cratered their economy in an attempt to try and limit spread. 

No offense, but yes. You are misinformed. 

 

Edited by NoName
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28 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol. There will be very little if any violence towards the military. Most gun nuts & militia types will throw their weapons down & surrender at the first sign of a challenge, despite how much they say otherwise. There’s a huge difference between a paper target and one with a weapon pointed back at you. 

If that's the case, then there's a shit load of good old boys just wasting their time on "militia training" weekends all over east Texas.

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48 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

With all due respect, you're misinformed. Take a look at the links that have been posted regarding exponential growth. Italy is letting people just die without treatment in the floor of the hospital because their health care system is literally collapsing. That doesn't sound like "starting to get there." China imposed draconian quarantines that we cannot. South Korea and Japan implemented early cancellations and quarantines, and SK has widespread testing. We have none of those things. 

Also Italy is approaching 10,000 cases and the curve is rocketing up. That's not "a couple thousand." 

Immediate measures are needed to slow infections to prevent the complete overrun of our medical system. 

I never thought I see a day where the dumbest Longhorn was not at least as intelligent as the smartest Sooner, but here we are.

These are strange days indeed...

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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