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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Just now, Captainant said:

From the COVID-19 task force press briefing, it'll "wash through" by July or August, so I don't think there's much anticipation from the authorities to contain or control the spread.

the google traffic maps are rock solid proof we are controlling the spread.  70% reduction in social contact?  no.  but every fucking bit matters.

let us pray.

1 Thessalonians 5:4-6

But you, brothers and sisters, are not in darkness so that this day should surprise you like a thief.

You are all children of the light and children of the day. We do not belong to the night or to the darkness.

So then, let us not be like others, who are asleep, but let us be awake and sober.

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7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But they wouldn’t have died from lack of care. I was talking about that scenario.  Flu and covid cases competing for beds, with the losers dying at home. 

I get it.  I'm just talking about overall expected mortality rate but I get that its in the noise.   lots of ins and outs and whathaveyou's

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Have we seen the end of cruises?  I mean, I know the US is in no shortage of people for whom uncontrollable diarrhea is a weekly occurrence but why would you ever get on a ship again if the shits were coupled with pneumonia?
One of my wife's friends was planning to leave for a cruise today until it was cancelled. She was pissed it was cancelled.

The people who wanted to go on cruises before still want to go on cruises now and they'll still want to go on cruises later because they're idiots.
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36 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I’m just trying to find some sort of light for America’s case. Considering we have almost 260,000,000 people than Italy and still have the same amount of cases “x” days into the event, hopefully it won’t explode into America’s own chart. There’s no doubt we’ll see Italy’s numbers somewhere down the road..I’m hoping to not see those numbers times 5.5 because of our population disparity

Italy has a much higher population density per square mile.  Look at our high density population centers on the coasts.  They’re blooming. Not trying to pop your ray of sunshine but that’s what sticks out to me when I look at the map. 

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How exactly would a San Francisco style 24 hour lockdown work in a city like Dallas? Are they going to pull people over who are driving around?
National Guard checkpoints. I'm not talking about the Military lighting people up with 50 cal's, but at least shaming these people into going home. Maybe put one cop with each group to write tickets. Just harass people into doing the right thing. Every little bit helps.
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6 hours ago, Homercles said:

Our daycare is open and we had planned on them being there this week, but the 3yp has a cough and low temp (99.5 or so) so they wouldn’t let her in anyways.  Called the Ped and they said only bother going in if it’s a full on fever...seems they’re swamped right now no surprise. 

Screen limits are out the window right now.  I’d rather be sane than trying to be a stickler for the rules.  

Yeah, we finally called our kids doctor - the 4yo’s cough worsened a bit, and temp in the 99s.   They questioned the hell out of us, angling around the covid thing, and clearly are swamped as well.  

Introduce your kids to Peppa Pig and Ben and Holly.   Keep them away from Ryan and Nastya.  

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10 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i know a single 1%er and they are really pissed off at trump for moving "too quickly" and "crashing the economy"

but i think we may have just flattened the curve.  a little bit.  a week ago we had zero flattening.  are we near 70% reduction in social distancing?  absolutely not.  but the markets crashing forced the government to pay attention and i feel like there is a ray of hope.  the more wailing and whining and gnashing of teeth, the fewer lives potentially lost that could be saved.

there but for the grace of god go i.

I fear, if you are right and we have managed to do something over the last couple of days, the folks that have been saying no big deal this whole time will claim that they were correct. See Dcar00 and akhornfan. And that'll make it all the worse when it pops up again.

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Italy has a much higher population density per square mile.  Look at our high density population centers on the coasts.  They’re blooming. Not trying to pop your ray of sunshine but that’s what sticks out to me when I look at the map. 

Is Seattle high density? I’ve never been there. NYC and Cali shocks nobody but how’s LA doing? They’re not as on top of each other as NYC or SF right?
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8 minutes ago, Seger78 said:

I googled 'Miami Corona closures' and this is well down on the list.  Talks about gym rats braving corona and other such BS.  But thanks. 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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One of my wife's friends was planning to leave for a cruise today until it was cancelled. She was pissed it was cancelled.

The people who wanted to go on cruises before still want to go on cruises now and they'll still want to go on cruises later because they're idiots.
That's just amazing
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I fear, if you are right and we have managed to do something over the last couple of days, the folks that have been saying no big deal this whole time will claim that they were correct. See Dcar00 and akhornfan. And that'll make it all the worse when it pops up again.

Agreed, that’s what sucks too although just because some aren’t listening to green point word for word doesn’t mean they don’t think it’s a serious issue
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Just now, VABuckeye said:

Italy has a much higher population density per square mile.  Look at our high density population centers on the coasts.  They’re blooming. Not trying to pop your ray of sunshine but that’s what sticks out to me when I look at the map. 

Comparative to where Italy was in the curve when they started giving a shit and enacting mitigations, we're still a few days off of "par". And with the infection growth pattern being logarithmic, that means we missed out on making things at least half less shitty. 

I'm hoping our lower population density is enough to make a difference, but we've been pretty aggressively dumb as a nation over the last week as far as limiting social contact goes. I'd bet that April is going to make us miss March, considering the onslaught of exposure events over St. Paddy's Day weekend.

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4 hours ago, VABuckeye said:

UK is up to 55 deaths out of 1551 verified caes.  3.53% death rate is not good.

Do you really believe they only have 1551 cases?  This is the kind of shit that need to stop being repeated. 

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Texas AOG went remote for its employees at the end of the day, which is good.  My wife works there, but is hourly, and they won't let her remote in.  Sucks to lose the income for a while, but it's the right move, and I'm glad for her not to have to work in a close office environment for the time being.  

I work for a state appellate court and got our Chief to let me start setting up people's laptops,  chromebooks, ipads, etc. with the necessary VPN etc. to WFH.  But as of now, we're still open.  Thankfully, it's a very spread out office with fewer than 16 people has an entrance that's not used by the public, and everyone has his/her own office.  It's one of those jobs where you pretty much never have to see anyone if you don't want to.  Lots of bleach wipes, Lysol, and hand sanitizer on hand.  Had a meeting today about everything and all the chairs were staggered 6 feet apart.  I think we'll be okay but figure the Governor will order us to WFH before the end of the week.  So I'm getting people ready as long as the ones who want help don't mind a little bleach on the keyboard and stay the fuck away from me.  I got a little pleasure about telling someone whose not exactly my favorite person to back up.

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11 minutes ago, Bill Lumbergh said:

One of my wife's friends was planning to leave for a cruise today until it was cancelled. She was pissed it was cancelled.

The people who wanted to go on cruises before still want to go on cruises now and they'll still want to go on cruises later because they're idiots.

If I were being forced onto a cruise ship by gun point, I may just grab the barrel and put it in my mouth and end it quickly.

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Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Is Seattle high density? I’ve never been there. NYC and Cali shocks nobody but how’s LA doing? They’re not as on top of each other as NYC or SF right?

To a degree yes in that geography, the sound and  waterways make particularly dense pockets.. the city itself is hilly and tiny compared to Tx, lots of dense neighborhoods all along the I-5 corridor. Seatec and (now) to a lesser degree Tacoma are much more working class, with higher density and lower incomes.

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29 minutes ago, Cousin Strawberry said:

Have we seen the end of cruises?  I mean, I know the US is in no shortage of people for whom uncontrollable diarrhea is a weekly occurrence but why would you ever get on a ship again if the shits were coupled with pneumonia?

Unless we're seeing the end of stupid people, then the answer is no.

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6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Is Seattle high density? I’ve never been there. NYC and Cali shocks nobody but how’s LA doing? They’re not as on top of each other as NYC or SF right?

My semi-educated guess would be air travel/tourism and business connections to the Pacific Rim countries is the main driver.

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5 minutes ago, Hate said:

Do you really believe they only have 1551 cases?  This is the kind of shit that need to stop being repeated. 

Yes, completely ridiculous.  Here stateside, I'd be willing to bet we're trending in the hundreds of thousands.  I'm not exaggerating.  There's plenty of facts we can lay out around here but if you start your analysis at the confirmed number of positive cases the whatever point you're trying to make is gonna be bullshit.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Can you do us all a favor? Maybe give Greenspoint tips on how to have a melt down without being a combination of a profusely bleeding axe wound and a sleep deprived toddler? That would be grand. 
 

Bonus points if you can teach the male nurse who apparently married real well or was left a trust fund to maybe dial down the entitlement dial from Rex Kramer to Just A Regular Prick. Thanks in advance. 

Dammit, Sydney, I'm a message board poster, not a magician.

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes, completely ridiculous.  Here stateside, I'd be willing to bet we're trending in the hundreds of thousands.  I'm not exaggerating.  There's plenty of facts we can lay out around here but if you start your analysis at the confirmed number of positive cases the entire point is gonna be bullshit.  

Your estimate confuses me. Hundreds of thousands should mean thousands of hospitalizations and we aren’t seeing that. 

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3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes, completely ridiculous.  Here stateside, I'd be willing to bet we're trending in the hundreds of thousands.  I'm not exaggerating.  There's plenty of facts we can lay out around here but if you start your analysis at the confirmed number of positive cases the whatever point you're trying to make is gonna be bullshit.  

5-10 cases in the wild for every confirmed one according to this.

 

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4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes, completely ridiculous.  Here stateside, I'd be willing to bet we're trending in the hundreds of thousands.  I'm not exaggerating.  There's plenty of facts we can lay out around here but if you start your analysis at the confirmed number of positive cases the whatever point you're trying to make is gonna be bullshit.  

You bitched me out so hard for making this exact point hundreds of pages ago. Glad to see you’re coming around. 

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10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I fear, if you are right and we have managed to do something over the last couple of days, the folks that have been saying no big deal this whole time will claim that they were correct. See Dcar00 and akhornfan. And that'll make it all the worse when it pops up again.

I'm not sure that anyone has said "it's no big deal".  For most of the population, it is in fact no big deal, but that other 20% is a big number.  I think most people you think are calling it "no big deal" are simply pointing out that this has been in and around North America for much longer than anyone knows and that based on that we shouldn't anticpate we are indeed 2 weeks behind Italy.  This week will tell the tale, but the predictions by the cheerleaders like Greenspoint that there will be bodies in the trees and in the streets doesn't seem to be materializing here...yet.  The virus has been here since January 1 most likely (if not before).  Why aren't we seeing bodies stacked in the halls like Italy?  I'm glad we've taken the steps we have a s a country and I hope that the next 2 weeks sees a huge reduction of new cases and a return to as close to normal as we can get for the foreseeable future. 

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3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your estimate confuses me. Hundreds of thousands should mean thousands of hospitalizations and we aren’t seeing that. 

No way.  The VAST majority of those that get it will barely feel sick.  That's why you need the shutdown.  Most won't know they're sick and carry it, unknowingly, to someone immunocompromised and usually those type of people hang out with eachother...and you're off...Boom - the hospitals can be overwhelmed rather quickly. 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

No way.  The VAST majority of those that get it will barely feel sick.  That's why you need the shutdown.  Most won't know they're sick and carry it, unknowingly, to someone immunocompromised and usually those type of people hang out with eachother...and the hospitals can be overwhelmed rather quickly. 

Your argument is making me feel like we don’t need to be turning lives upside down for this thing. That it’s...like the flu. 

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1 hour ago, Okie State said:

So I actually had to work today. What did I miss?

The stock market slid into the sea and the World is on fire. 
 

on the bright side those guys with 18000 bottles of hand sanitizer donated all of it to avoid league problems. 

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6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes, completely ridiculous.  Here stateside, I'd be willing to bet we're trending in the hundreds of thousands.  I'm not exaggerating.  There's plenty of facts we can lay out around here but if you start your analysis at the confirmed number of positive cases the whatever point you're trying to make is gonna be bullshit.  

i have this rule myself. take the projection from the current positive test forward one week, and that is the # of true cases now. Most of the data I have casually seen online leads me to think that is a good rule of thumb. and of course that is likely under the true true number due to no symptoms for some

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your argument is making me feel like we don’t need to be turning lives upside down for this thing. That it’s...like the flu. 

And maybe we don't for the 80% of the population that will have no ill affects from this virus.  Maybe the 20% that are in jeopardy of being compromised by this virus are the ones that need to be totally isolated.  The next 2 weeks will buy us some time to figure that out, maybe. 

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your argument is making me feel like we don’t need to be turning lives upside down for this thing. That it’s...like the flu. 

Hell no, the issue isn't the sick people or how sick - the issue is we don't have the healthcare system to support the spike.  Hence all the flatten the curve talk - it's legit.  I can't help you if you don't see the issue with asymptomatic carriers taking death to unsuspecting people.  That's a nightmare scenario to most doctors and all ID doctors/epidemiologists. 

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Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

That's your fear?  LOL, dumbasses will always be dumbasses.  You watch...even if this ends up really bad, those fucking people will still have some excuse for why they were actually right.  You can't think about the dumbasses when you're trying to save the masses...even though the masses are often dumbasses.  Got it? 


Your ideas interest me and id like to subscribe to your news letter.

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Your argument is making me feel like we don’t need to be turning lives upside down for this thing. That it’s...like the flu. 

Are you below the age of 50 with no other health complications, comorbidities, or immune deficiencies?  If so, then yeah, you have like a .5% chance of being seriously hospitalized if you get infected. 

If you don't fall into that group, your odds of life-changing or ending illness increase to the 3-5% range if you get infected. And it goes up significantly past the 65 mark.

So the common factor in all of this is that it's really scary if you're in a risk group and if you get exposed and if you contract it. Can't help being in risk factor, or if you'll contract it from an exposure event. But you sure can influence how many and how significant your exposure events are.

That's the idea. Mitigating risk as a group to make our individual odds more favorable.

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Hell no, the issue isn't the sick people or how sick - the issue is we don't have the healthcare system to support the spike.  Hence all the flatten the curve talk - it's legit.  I can't help you if you don't see the issue with asymptomatic carriers taking death to unsuspecting people.  That's a nightmare scenario to most doctors and all ID doctors/epidemiologists. 

I agree with you, and think we are finally doing the necessary steps to hopefully flatten the curve. But I am surprised at the actual reports so far being low, I know we aren't testing really, but I would have thought we would have reports out of hospitals all over the country being overwhelmed, since this has been in the U.S. since January 20th at least. That is just surprising me for now, but I am guessing that could change in the coming days, and unfortunately probably will be. 

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Oof. On the phone with daughter now. For the first time, tears. Mourning the early end of her rez experience - “I was cheated out of the last two months of my first year of college. I’ll never get to live here in the dorm again.”
Yeah, in the grand scheme of things, not the biggest disaster. But I feel her.
Do you want to come home? “I just don’t know.” Just...tears. Fuck.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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