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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a months-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 
Link again for convenience: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
He also argues that the assumption guiding our current strategy, that we'll emerge from this with herd immunity, is dangerous; its already mutated so many times, giving it hundreds of millions additionsl opportunities may sign us up for annual covid-season (where our annual vaccine is only effective against some strains). The months-long shut down buys us time to ramp up testing/idolation, build PPE, vents, temp hospitals, etc. 
What strategy would you suggest if you were in Trump's ear? 
 
But what you're missing is that ctj's day spa might not make it if we don't open everything back up. And that's the important thing about all of this.
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Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a months-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 
Link again for convenience: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
He also argues that the assumption guiding our current strategy, that we'll emerge from this with herd immunity, is dangerous; its already mutated so many times, giving it hundreds of millions additionsl opportunities may sign us up for annual covid-season (where our annual vaccine is only effective against some strains). The months-long shut down buys us time to ramp up testing/idolation, build PPE, vents, temp hospitals, etc. 
What strategy would you suggest if you were in Trump's ear? 
 
I'm sorry, but what are Thomas Pueyo's credentials again? He is the author of the article, so why should we take this one more seriously?
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Man fuck China for this. I hope if we ever get back on our feet we pull all our manufacturing back into the America’s and unite the world against these mofos.  
 

I had three boxes of n95’s that I bought in January and donated one to a dentist (he is seeing emergency patients only) and one to an ER doctor family friend.  Keeping the last one for me and mine. I probably need to research the correct way to put on and take it off so I don’t fuck them up.

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Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
14 minutes ago, B00M said:
Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a months-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 
Link again for convenience: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
He also argues that the assumption guiding our current strategy, that we'll emerge from this with herd immunity, is dangerous; its already mutated so many times, giving it hundreds of millions additionsl opportunities may sign us up for annual covid-season (where our annual vaccine is only effective against some strains). The months-long shut down buys us time to ramp up testing/idolation, build PPE, vents, temp hospitals, etc. 
What strategy would you suggest if you were in Trump's ear? 
 

Read more  

I'm sorry, but what are Thomas Pueyo's credentials again? He is the author of the article, so why should we take this one more seriously?

 

I guess thats a fair question but what credentials does someone really need when they cite all of their sources and state their assumptions? If you're reading this thread you're clearly used to filtering out bullshit. Review his prior article and draw your own conclusions. 

This is what his little bio on the site says:

2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of viral applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero

Editor of Tomas Pueyo
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Top writer in Health
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There is no re-infection. It is not genetically engineered. It behaves exactly like all other viruses and coronaviruses. Coronaviruses do not mutate near as rapidly as influenza. It will eventually mutate and become seasonal. However, it should be less virulent for several reasons: One is viruses replicate to exist so if they kill faster, their chance for existence decreases. Two is that this virus is novel to human immune systems. As we become more exposed to this virus, we will develop a better immunity to it. Three is we will develop a vaccine by the beginning of 2021. The vaccine will limit the virus' spread and virulence.

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9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

We can now all join hands with you as we climb into our self-made bunkers and vanish from the surface of the earth for 3 years of vacillating between sobbing and panic. 

Bunkers ??!  Who said build bunkers ??!!  I don't have a bunker !!!  Where do you get a bunker kit ??!!   Am I dead, and just don't know it yet ??!!  

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11 hours ago, naija said:

sorry, but the masks people are sewing from yarn are not standard or scrub masks which are in turn not N95 masks.

if people were sewing standard masks, thats one thing. but that's not what they are doing.

the transmission rate when wearing a scrub mask is higher than an N95 mask, but its obviously not 100%. so that does offer protection

what's the transmission rate for wrapping your shirt around your face? it's primary mode of protection for now would be as a reminder to not touch your face.

this has been going around twitter and other places

Effectiveness-of-household-materials-at-

 

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12 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Bunkers ??!  Who said build bunkers ??!!  I don't have a bunker !!!  Where do you get a bunker kit ??!!   Am I dead, and just don't know it yet ??!!  

I told you all the Blue Shed buy was a thing, did I not? About 400 pages ago. If you need it you're set, if you don't then you have a Blue She Shed. Win-win for Whiggins. Vertical videos of horizontal rain and wind whipped corrugated metal are optional.

 

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10 hours ago, Loco said:

I've got 3 old but brand new n95 masks. Who/ how should I Donate them?  I'd like them to go to the folks that really need them, but it's only three and the rubber bands are old.  Just drop em by the hospital or fire department?

 

is it even worth messing with?

@Lobo

i'd say EMTs - hospital probably can't take them / use them currently (regulations) but EMTs probably can/would

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1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I told you all the Blue Shed buy was a thing, did I not? About 400 pages ago. If you need it you're set, if you don't then you have a Blue She Shed. Win-win for Whiggins. Vertical videos of horizontal rain and wind whipped corrugated metal are optional.

 

Now Mrs. Whiggins, in my defense, when has a man ever listened to a woman ?

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13 hours ago, dcbc said:

Friend of my wife has a niece who tested positive.  She is critical and on an ventilator.  She is 13. 

Another friend of ours, who has a daughter my son's age is very ill right now (CV19 symptoms), but has been told she cannot be tested until tomorrow or Tuesday at the earliest.  This looks like it will be the week when a lot more people start to get sick.

Fuck man that's awful.  I hope she gets better, let us know how this turns out.

 

7 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

He may be correct; however, if you have met anyone in this country, to get to 80% you have to lock down 125%

yup

 

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9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine Harris county will shelter in place. There is a Harris county press conference in about 90 minutes.

it really is just a stronger social distancing but you’re allowed to go out. It’s just that you’re suppose to have a valid reason. 

So what about places like Lowes and Home Depot? If your shitter breaks can you go there to get plumbing materials to fix it? 

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6 hours ago, justhookit said:

Bad data in, bad data out. 

We have no fucking clue how many cases we had last week or now. Deaths right now are roughly from infections from 3 weeks ago. Arguing numbers and percentages right now is pointless, but what else do we have to do?

Who do you think the Blue Bombers are going to take in the first round?

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2 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

So what about places like Lowes and Home Depot? If your shitter breaks can you go there to get plumbing materials to fix it? 

Those places seem like essential reasons to be out, especially if it's an issue like a broken shitter.  If you're going because this seems like a good time to get some fuscia paint for little Sallys room, maybe not so much.

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1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Those places seem like essential reasons to be out, especially if it's an issue like a broken shitter.  If you're going bnjwcuas this seems like a good time to get some fuscia paint for little Sallys room, maybe not so much.

I mean.. what if I roll out of there with some PVC and a few bags of mulch? Who decides whether I get ticketed or not? 

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5 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

So what about places like Lowes and Home Depot? If your shitter breaks can you go there to get plumbing materials to fix it? 

Yes, it will be just like the Cali SiP.  You can still go out, and when you do, no one is going to ask for your papers.  Majority of people won't see one bit of difference.  

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15 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine Harris county will shelter in place. There is a Harris county press conference in about 90 minutes.

it really is just a stronger social distancing but you’re allowed to go out. It’s just that you’re suppose to have a valid reason. 

Does that kind of thing prevent people from walking about for exercise.  Because if it does, I'm going to be a rule breaking mofo.  Theres no way I can sit inside all day. 

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Quote

There is no re-infection.

This is half-way true.  You can't get re-infected with the same strain of the virus.

But... there are already two major strains, the original one from China which 30% of people have and the newer more aggressive strain that 70% of people have.  It is believed that you can catch the one strain even if you have already had the other and recovered.  No links, but it is what I have read. Would like to be wrong.

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1 hour ago, B00M said:

Definitely not trying to trap you. I appreciate your perspective even if I currently find myself disagreeing with it. He argues that we need a weeks-long shut down in order to suppress the spread and needless death due to hospital over run. He's projecting 500k to 10M deaths in the US almost entirely due to healthcare collapse. 

FTFM (incorrectly said months-long)

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26 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

If my choices are between an old cotton bandana and a mask for painting from the hardware store would you suggest the painter's mask?

can't help you there. guessing it would be useful to use mask first?

26 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Honest question- two layers of t-shirt would be significantly higher than 1, right?

here is a link to the study where this is from - can download the PDF for free here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258525804_Testing_the_Efficacy_of_Homemade_Masks_Would_They_Protect_in_an_Influenza_Pandemic

here is the table:

RuQFqAas

here is what it says about doubling fabrics: 

Quote

Although doubling the layers of fabric did significantly increase the pressure drop measured across all 3 materials (P , .01 using Wilcoxon sign rank test), only the 2 layers of tea towel material demonstrated a significant increase in filtration efficiency that was marginally greater than that of the face mask.

the conclusion: 

Spoiler

A protective mask may reduce the likelihood of infection, but it will not eliminate the risk, particularly when a disease has more than 1 route of transmission. Thus any mask, no matter how efficient at filtration or how good the seal, will have minimal effect if it is not used in conjunction with other preventative measures, such as isolation of infected cases, immunization, good respiratory etiquette, and regular hand hygiene. An improvised face mask should be viewed as the last possible alternative if a supply of commercial face masks is not available, irrespective of the disease against which it may be required for protection. Improvised homemade face masks may be used to help protect those who could potentially, for example, be at occupational risk from close or frequent contact with symptomatic patients. However, these masks would provide the wearers little protection from microorganisms from others persons who are infected with respiratory diseases. As a result, we would not recommend the use of homemade face masks as a method of reducing transmission of infection from aerosols

key info:

Quote

An improvised face mask should be viewed as the last possible alternative if a supply of commercial face masks is not available, irrespective of the disease against which it may be required for protection.

 

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3 hours ago, Constant said:

The streets overnight in my division have looked promising. With the incoming shelter-in-place, I hope it only gets better. Call loads have been relatively low recently. Not seeing too many idiots trying to take advantage, so far. Domestic violence is about to go through the roof though. 

Constant: 

 

BrightRareAsiansmallclawedotter-small.gi

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Science Magazine had a Q&A with Dr. Fauci

Quote

Q: We've seen creative ideas about how to respond in other countries that we aren’t adopting. China uses thermometers at supermarkets before letting people in. Should we be considering that?

Quote

A: Yes, of course. I think the logistics of that have to be worked out. That was discussed. All these things are discussed. Not all of them are implemented. This is something that should be considered. I will bring it up at the next task force meeting and see whether there’s some sort of a logistical, bureaucratic reason why it can't be done. The rationale for doing it is at least worth serious consideration.

Full Text:

Spoiler

 

‘I’m going to keep pushing.’ Anthony Fauci tries to make the White House listen to facts of the pandemic
By Jon CohenMar. 22, 2020 , 7:35 PM

Anthony Fauci, who to many watching the now-regular White House press briefings on the pandemic has become the scientific voice of reason about how to respond to the new coronavirus, runs from place to place in normal times and works long hours. Now the director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has even less time to sleep and travels at warp speed, typically racing daily from his office north of Washington D.C. to his home in the capital, and then to the White House to gather with the Coronavirus Task Force in the Situation Room. He then usually flanks President Donald Trump addressing the media--and when he isn't there, concerned tweets begin immediately. Shortly before he planned to head to the White House for a task force meeting today, he phoned ScienceInsider for a speedy chat. This interview has been edited for brevity and clarity.

Q: The first question everyone has is how are you?

A: Well, I'm sort of exhausted. But other than that, I'm good. I mean, I'm not, to my knowledge, coronavirus infected. To my knowledge, I haven't been fired. [Laughs.]

Q: How are you managing to not get fired?

A: Well, that's pretty interesting because to his [President Trump’s] credit, even though we disagree on some things, he listens. He goes his own way. He has his own style.  But on substantive issues, he does listen to what I say.

Q: You’ve been in press conferences where things are happening that you disagree with, is that fair to say?

A: Well, I don't disagree in the substance. It is expressed in a way that I would not express it, because it could lead to some misunderstanding about what the facts are about a given subject.

Q. You stood nearby while President Trump was in the Rose Garden shaking hands with people. You're a doctor. You must have had a reaction like, Sir, please don't do that.

A: Yes, I say that to the task force. I say that to the staff.  We should not be doing that. Not only that--we should be physically separating a bit more on those press conferences. To his credit, the Vice President [Mike Pence] is really pushing for physical separation of the task force [during meetings]. He keeps people out of the room--as soon as the room gets like more than 10 people or so, it’s ‘Out, everybody else out, go to a different room.’ So with regard to the task force, the Vice President is really a bear in making sure that we don't crowd 30 people into the Situation Room, which is always crowded. So he's definitely adhering to that. The situation on stage [for the press briefings] is a bit more problematic. I keep saying, is there any way we can get a virtual press conference. Thus far, no. But when you're dealing with the White House, sometimes you have to say things 1,2,3,4 times, and then it happens. So I'm going to keep pushing.

Q: You're standing there saying nobody should gather with more than 10 people and there are almost 10 people with you on the stage. And there are certainly more than 10 journalists in the audience.

A: I know that. I’m trying my best. I cannot do the impossible.

Q: What about the travel restrictions? President Trump keeps saying that the travel ban for China, which began 2 February, had a big impact [on slowing the spread of the virus to the United States] and that he wishes China would have told us three to four months earlier and that they were “very secretive.” [China did not immediately reveal the discovery of a new coronavirus in late December, but by 10 January, Chinese researchers made the sequence of the virus public.]  It just doesn't comport with facts.

A:  I know, but what do you want me to do? I mean, seriously Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?

Q: Most everyone thinks that you’re doing a remarkable job, but you're standing there as the representative of truth and facts but things are being said that aren't true and aren't factual.

A: The way it happened is that after he made that statement [suggesting China could have revealed the discovery of a new coronavirus three to four months earlier], I told the appropriate people, it doesn't comport,  because two or three months earlier would have been September. The next time they sit down with him and talk about what he’s going to say, they will say, by the way, Mr. President, be careful about this and don't say that. But I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down. OK, he said it. Let's try and get it corrected for the next time.

Q: You have not said China virus. [Trump frequently calls the cause of the spreading illness, known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)  a “China virus” or a “Chinese virus.”]

A: Ever.

Q. And you never will, will you?

A: No.

Q: I'm curious about some things that aren't happening on a national scale. One is, why are shelter in place orders happening state by state? Why are we doing this sequentially? Is that a mistake?

A: No, I don't think we could say it's a mistake or not a mistake. There is a discussion and a delicate balance about what’s the overall impact of shutting everything down completely for an indefinite period of time. So there's a compromise. If you knock down the economy completely and disrupt infrastructure, you may be causing health issues, unintended consequences, for people who need to be able to get to places and can't. You do the best you can. I've emphasized very emphatically at every press conference, that everybody in the country, at a minimum, should be following the fundamental guidelines. Elderly, stay out of society in self isolation. Don't go to work if you don't have to. Yada yada yada. No bars, no restaurants, no nothing. Only essential services. When you get a place like New York or Washington or California, you have got to ratchet it up. But it is felt--and it isn't me only speaking, it’s a bunch of people who make the decisions—that if you lock down everything now, you're going to crash the whole society. So you do what you can do, as best as you can. Do as much physical separation as you can and ratchet it up at the places you know are at highest risk.

Q:  But I heard a guy say, if you think you're doing too much, you're probably doing the right amount.

A: That’s me.

Q: I know it's you. The “15 Days to Slow the Spread” campaign doesn't mention religious gatherings. I know Pence mentioned them yesterday. But why aren’t they on the 15 Days recommendations? All these other places are mentioned.

A: It was implied in no crowds of more than 10 people. But you’re right, crowds in church are important and every time I get a chance to say it, I mention it. I can't really criticize them strongly for that at all. When you say less than 10, it makes common sense that it involves the church. I say it publicly and even the vice president has said it publicly.

Q: What happens before each press conference? What do you do as a group?

A: We're in the task force. We sit down for an hour and a half, go over all the issues on the agenda. And then we proceed from there to an ante room right in front of the Oval Office to talk about what are going to be the messages, what are the kind of things we're going to want to emphasize? Then we go in to see the president, we present [our consensus] to him and somebody writes a speech. Then he gets up and ad libs on his speech. And then we're up there to try and answer questions.

Q: At Friday’s press conference, you put your hands over your face when President Trump referred to the “deep State Department,” [a popular conspiracy theory]. It’s even become an internet meme. Have you been criticized for what you did?

A: No comment.

Q: We've seen creative ideas about how to respond in other countries that we aren’t adopting. China uses thermometers at supermarkets before letting people in. Should we be considering that?

A: Yes, of course. I think the logistics of that have to be worked out. That was discussed. All these things are discussed. Not all of them are implemented. This is something that should be considered. I will bring it up at the next task force meeting and see whether there’s some sort of a logistical, bureaucratic reason why it can't be done. The rationale for doing it is at least worth serious consideration.

Q:  Big Picture. We've had all this pandemic preparedness. Why did this fail? What went wrong?

A: I think we'll have to wait until it is over and we look back before we can answer that. It's almost like the fog of war. After the war is over, you then look back and say, wow, this plan, as great as it was, didn't quite work once they started throwing hand grenades at us. It really is similar to that. Obviously, testing [for the new coronavirus] is one clear issue that needs to be relooked at. Why were we not able to mobilize on a broader scale? But I don't think we can do that right now. I think it's premature. We really need to look forward.

Q: Right now, why do we have a travel ban on visitors from China when there are few cases in China other than imported cases? What's the logic?

A: I'm sorry. I was just looking at two text messages, one from a governor and one from the White House. I gotta get off.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

Man fuck China for this. I hope if we ever get back on our feet we pull all our manufacturing back into the America’s and unite the world against these mofos.  

A common and understandable sentiment.  It might be prudent to question, though, why our manufacturing went there in the first place. I seriously doubt there is a simple solution to this problem.

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1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

Man fuck China for this. I hope if we ever get back on our feet we pull all our manufacturing back into the America’s and unite the world against these mofos.  
 

I had three boxes of n95’s that I bought in January and donated one to a dentist (he is seeing emergency patients only) and one to an ER doctor family friend.  Keeping the last one for me and mine. I probably need to research the correct way to put on and take it off so I don’t fuck them up.

Google “fit test” to make sure you’re not sucking external unfiltered air from around the sides of the mask. It’s also advised that you shave any areas of skin that contact the mask seal. 

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Brazil will be interesting to watch. Some big city mayors are shutting down cities but President against it. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-says-coronavirus-crisis-is-a-media-trick

Quote

Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has accused his political foes and the press of purposefully “tricking” citizens about the dangers of coronavirus, as Latin America braced for a spike in the number of deaths.

The pandemic has claimed nearly 15,000 lives across the globe and looks set to exact a deadly toll on Latin America in the coming weeks, with many regional governments closing borders and shutting down major cities in a desperate bid to limit the damage.

But Bolsonaro has resisted such drastic measures, dismissing media “hysteria” over coronavirus and calling the illness “a little flu”.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Walden Ponderer said:

A common and understandable sentiment.  It might be prudent to question, though, why our manufacturing went there in the first place. I seriously doubt there is a simple solution to this problem.

$200 big screen TVs and laptops, basically.  The race to the bottom.  Will Americans buy Dell or HP computers that are priced 30% over their Lenovo counterparts?  

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2 minutes ago, Walden Ponderer said:

A common and understandable sentiment.  It might be prudent to question, though, why our manufacturing went there in the first place. I seriously doubt there is a simple solution to this problem.

There's a simple solution.  Give companies incentives to bring their manufacturing back to the states, or to nations that aren't actively trtyin to undermine the country.

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6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

$200 big screen TVs and laptops, basically.  The race to the bottom.  Will Americans buy Dell or HP computers that are priced 30% over their Lenovo counterparts?  

i mean, Dell has manufacturing locations in Ireland, Brazil, China, Malaysia and the US. Not like they are only State-side. 

AFAIK most of HP's machines are manufactured in Southwest Asia?

Edited by NoName
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2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

There's a simple solution.  Give companies incentives to bring their manufacturing back to the states, or to nations that aren't actively trtyin to undermine the country.

people love to assume that manufacturing State-side is this perfect solution - it has been pretty obvious that people aren't going to pay a large markup for manufactured in the US products. 

if you have 2 computers side by side and one is manufactured in Southwest Asia (let's say Thailand) vs one that is the exact same specs but is 25-30% more expensive which one are most folks going to buy?

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people love to assume that manufacturing State-side is this perfect solution - it has been pretty obvious that people aren't going to pay a large markup for manufactured in the US products. 
if you have 2 computers side by side and one is manufactured in Southwest Asia (let's say Thailand) vs one that is the exact same specs but is 25-30% more expensive which one are most folks going to buy?

Yup and that’s why when you’re at the grocery store you’re still seeing the more expensive cuts of meat still on shelves while just about everything else is gone.
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4 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:


Yup and that’s why when you’re at the grocery store you’re still seeing the more expensive cuts of meat still on shelves while just about everything else is gone.

Arent we going to address corporate greed though too?  CEO pay that is off the charts.   Wall Street expectations driving instead of job growth. 

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7 minutes ago, NoName said:

people love to assume that manufacturing State-side is this perfect solution - it has been pretty obvious that people aren't going to pay a large markup for manufactured in the US products. 

if you have 2 computers side by side and one is manufactured in Southwest Asia (let's say Thailand) vs one that is the exact same specs but is 25-30% more expensive which one are most folks going to buy?

No it's not THE answer, but there are other nations that aren't China, that can produce manufactured goods. China is not an ally in any sense of the word.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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