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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

You would be pretty safe with that rationale if the stay at home policies endured the remainder of 2020 or until a vaccine is trialed successfully and scaled by the billions.  I don't see people keeping their distance that long.  I think it's naive to believe I won't catch it.  I just want to make sure the healthcare system hasn't collapsed whenever I or my loved ones do become infected, just in case I or they suffer complications

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10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Anyone who believes that needs a remedial math lesson.

The death toll has been doubling every two to three days.  And that's before this disease overwhelms hospitals and every new case that needs a ventilator doesn't get one.

We're at over 1,000 deaths today with 17 days until Easter.  If the death total doubles 6 more times by then, we're looking at 64,000 dead Americans by Easter.  

Maybe it won't be that bad.  Social distancing will curb the rate of infections.  But the mortality rate may also increase in the short term due to lack of care.  It's tough to say.

But the death toll in America will absolutely hit five figures in the next few days.  It may hit six figures in the next few weeks.  It's not unthinkable that it hits seven figures before we get a vaccine.

Stay.  Home.  For a long time.   

There aren’t going to be 64,000 dead by Easter. 

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5 minutes ago, squeegeedegg said:

You would be pretty safe with that rationale if the stay at home policies endured the remainder of 2020 or until a vaccine is trialed successfully and scaled by the billions.  I don't see people keeping their distance that long.  I think it's naive to believe I won't catch it.  I just want to make sure the healthcare system hasn't collapsed whenever I or my loved ones do become infected, just in case I or they suffer complications

If that’s your viewpoint you should participate in the corona challenge as long as you aren’t in NYC. Get in on the early fun and get it over with. 

Or hell- we could systematically infect people from easiest to cure to build up herd immunity. Do it on a schedule and then you are released back to life as it was before as a super human impervious to the corona. 

Obviously this is tongue in cheek but 1) the later you get it the more likely to have capacity (cranking out beds and equipment) and 2) even when we “open back up” there still won’t be huge crowds and gatherings Id bet. 

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Anyone who believes that needs a remedial math lesson.

The death toll has been doubling every two to three days.  And that's before this disease overwhelms hospitals and every new case that needs a ventilator doesn't get one.

We're at over 1,000 deaths today with 17 days until Easter.  If the death total doubles 6 more times by then, we're looking at 64,000 dead Americans by Easter.  

Maybe it won't be that bad.  Social distancing will curb the rate of infections.  But the mortality rate may also increase in the short term due to lack of care.  It's tough to say.

But the death toll in America will absolutely hit five figures in the next few days.  It may hit six figures in the next few weeks.  It's not unthinkable that it hits seven figures before we get a vaccine.

Stay.  Home.  For a long time.   

Today’s death is down 70 from yesterday. Worldometer is about to reset due to GMT

 

One point 3 acres (CDT)has us at a 4 day double until today’s low count which is at 85 less deaths than yesterday

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12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Today’s death is down 70 from yesterday. Worldometer is about to reset due to GMT

 

One point 3 acres (CDT)has us at a 4 day double until today’s low count which is at 85 less deaths than yesterday

Worldometer says they flip at 00:00 GMT but there’s a descent amount of ‘give’ to that. 
 

they also haven’t picked up the latest NY data. I think the worldometer total ends at +\- 260, unless they roll the last 60 from NY into tomorrow.

Edited by akhornfan
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30 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t know. We shut everything down- it seems hard for me to believe that we are getting to 40% of the population infected. 

I didn’t get swine flu and I was teaching school amongst an outbreak at the school. This time around nobody in my family has left the house in 2 weeks other than me, and for me it was just grocery store and pool store. It seems unlikely to me we are getting corona. Same the country over. Yes, we have some dipshits but I think most people are keeping their distance. 

I think you are overestimating just how well people are doing with various stay at home/stay indoors orders. You are definitely on one side of the curve

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12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Some of us have wondered when we'll get over the hump. Ohio thinks they'll get there in mid-April.
 

If the rest of the country is on Ohio's "good" curve, we are talking 60x our current daily rate. That... doesn't sound great. Unless that chart is supposed to be nationwide and we are missing something that says "per 100 million population" or something like?

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2 minutes ago, naija said:

I think you are overestimating just how well people are doing with various stay at home/stay indoors orders. You are definitely on one side of the curve

Maybe so, I’m not typically normal about anything. I try to be pretty conscientious and at the end of the day I’m really not worried about my own health, or even whether I live or die, but I wouldn’t want to have gotten someone else sick/miserable. 

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Worldometer says they flip at 00:00 GMT but there’s a descent amount of ‘give’ to that. 
 
they also haven’t picked up the latest NY data. I think the worldometer total ends at +\- 260, unless they roll the last 60 from NY into tomorrow.

Looks like they added NYs evening update which put them from 19 to 100(+81)before the reset


So we pretty much matched yesterday’s death count...went up in by 2500 in cases
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11 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

 

Just spent 10 minutes taking Chic filet out of the bag and their containers, putting them on a pan in the oven on 170 for 5 minutes, then putting them on the table for us to eat. This is our second meal out since we locked down 4 weeks ago. Dystopian world

 

I applaud your efforts but I don't think you did that right. The surface of the food needs to reach 160+ if you're concerned about it being on the surface of your food. 

I've ordered take out a few times and I'm careful with the packaging but that's as far as I go with it. I'm not about to nuke my sushi. 

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe so, I’m not typically normal about anything. I try to be pretty conscientious and at the end of the day I’m really not worried about my own health, or even whether I live or die, but I wouldn’t want to have gotten someone else sick/miserable. 

Had this talk with my friend over dinner tonight. She is deemed essential and her fear is no matter how careful she is, her interaction with the public, many of them elderly, will cause her to get someone sick. I just tell her to relax, be careful, continue to be dedicated and that I have dinner covered. 

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Can someone explain it like I’m five why people in Dallas still can’t get tested when they have multiple symptoms of it and work in essential businesses like a urgent care/ health clinics/pharmacies? Heard there are only two testing locations now in Dallas and they have limited tests available. Other places stopped testing (turning people away to begin with) all together as a result.

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2 minutes ago, Covri said:

Can someone explain it like I’m five why people in Dallas still can’t get tested when they have multiple symptoms of it and work in essential businesses like a urgent care/ health clinics/pharmacies? Heard there are only two testing locations now in Dallas and they have limited tests available. Other places stopped testing (turning people away to begin with) all together as a result.

solely based on the Texas dashboard website, the private testing dwarfs the public testing.  The 2 drive through sites in Dallas county can only test a max of 250 per day (each).  They list that restriction as 'federally mandated'.  No idea on the criteria for private testing

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5 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

 My daughter, the high school teacher, has stayed away for two weeks.  Tomorrow she’s coming over and we get to spend the day with her.  It will be nice to have a little return to normalcy.  Can’t wait to see her.  

Let me guess. Tito's time? 

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Just now, gyroprotagonist said:

solely based on the Texas dashboard website, the private testing dwarfs the public testing.  The 2 drive through sites in Dallas county can only test a max of 250 per day (each).  They list that restriction as 'federally mandated'.  No idea on the criteria for private testing

They tried to got to their insurance provided options and were told they didn’t meet the criteria. One was a vet and was told the VA wasn’t testing allegedly.

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

The video of cellphones in Ft. Lauderdale and then their spread convinces me we should nuke pretty much the entire midwest and most of the NE.  We'd be better of in many ways.

Kinda looks like we already did.

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57 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

And if there are, you'll just get a new screen name with a different hot take.

Dude, get the fuck out of here with the 64,000 dead by Easter hawt take. We’ve walked through how removing variables changes outcomes, often violently and unexpectedly, in big data exercises in the real world and away from the spreadsheets and classrooms where “huuurrrrr derrrrr exponential into an asymptote against the the population total for realz!!!”. We’ve done it plenty on here and this kind of shit from someone randomly showing up is as tiring as the old “it’s just like the flu!” drive-bys. 

And if you or anyone wants to their money or their Surly account where their mouth is on this, I’ll take you up on it. If we have 32,000 deaths in the US from this by Easter, you win. I’ll take the under and I’m taking all bets. 

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Whoever wants to read the UT paper.  Here are the bios of those who produced it.

https://utexas.app.box.com/s/7kgikqmev8ex831aq9wcsb3n5kwr7nxh

Lauren Ancel Meyers

Quote

I am a Professor of Integrative Biology at The University of Texas at Austin, and a member of the External Faculty and Scientific Advisory Board of the Santa Fe Institute. I was trained as a mathematical biologist at Harvard and Stanford Universities, and my research foci include network epidemiology, optimization of infectious disease surveillance and control, and translational tools for public health.

Dr. Zhanwei Du - Postdoctoral Fellow - Meyers Lab, Department of Integrative Biology, Lots of extremely technical publications and research like "Location based surveillance for early detection of contagious outbreaks"

Dr. Spencer J. Fox - Data scientist, "taught weekly R data science course and trained 50+ graduate students for the Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics", Research Associate at UT Austin working on statistical epidemiology.

Dr. Michael Pignone - UT Austin/Dell Medical School, Chair, Department of Internal Medicine, Assistant Dean for Veterans Affairs, master’s degree in epidemiology from the UNC School of Public Health.

Dr. Clay Johnston

Quote
  • Dean, Dell Medical School, University of Texas at Austin
  • Vice President for Medical Affairs, UT Austin
  • Frank and Charmaine Denius Distinguished Dean’s Chair in Medical Leadership
  • M.D. - Harvard Medical School
  • Ph.D., Epidemiology - University of California, Berkeley

Remy Pasco - PhD student in Operations Research and Industrial Engineering at UT Austin, Department of Integrative Biology. 5 years experience as a market risk analyst in finance.  Bachelor of Science in engineering from the Ecole Centrale de Nantes, MEng, Financial Engineering, Cornell University, 

 Xutong Wang - Ph.D. candidate in Computational Epidemiology and M.S. in Statistics; research focuses on statistical and mathematical modeling of disease dynamics

Michaela Petty - Bunch of stuff about epidemiology

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12 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Dude, get the fuck out of here with the 64,000 dead by Easter hawt take. We’ve walked through how removing variables changes outcomes, often violently and unexpectedly, in big data exercises in the real world and away from the spreadsheets and classrooms where “huuurrrrr derrrrr exponential into an asymptote against the the population total for realz!!!”. We’ve done it plenty on here and this kind of shit from someone randomly showing up is as tiring as the old “it’s just like the flu!” drive-bys. 

And if you or anyone wants to their money or their Surly account where their mouth is on this, I’ll take you up on it. If we have 32,000 deaths in the US from this by Easter, you win. I’ll take the under and I’m taking all bets. 

Fuck you 32,000 times.

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55 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe so, I’m not typically normal about anything. I try to be pretty conscientious and at the end of the day I’m really not worried about my own health, or even whether I live or die, but I wouldn’t want to have gotten someone else sick/miserable. 

I knocked it down to 100M-125M from about 200M(highly contagious, more so than swine) becuase of the social distancing, cancelling large events, stopping of flights etc.

give n swine was 60M I think 100M+ is a good bet.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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