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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just going to copy text to make it load faster

  • Looking at arenas, hotels, other locations across TX as backup plans for housing patients, Abbott says
  • Army Corps of Engineers is also looking at other regions like Houston, San Antonio, Austin, RGV, El Paso, any part of state where this need may be called upon, Abbott says, urging local leaders to contact state if you know of a place that could be a temp healthcare facility.
  • Abbott says he's issuing new executive orders
  • 1st is travel-related "to reduce importing COVID-19 into Texas." Prior order covered air travel from New Orleans. NEw order expands to travel by road from any location in Louisiana.
  • Abbott now requiring 14-day self-quarantine for anyone flying into Texas from Miami, Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago, and any air travel from California and Washington State.
  • Abbott says sooner we can get to economic vitality will depend on Texans working to reduce spread.
  • Brig. Gen. Paul Owen of Army Corps of Engineers: looking at 3 diff types of facilities, hospitals/clinics not in use, arenas/convention centers, hotels. Could be used for #COVID19 patients, or others should regular hospitals take lead on that
  • Now: @TXMilitary's @MGTracyNorris says you may see Guardsmen in your communities now that @GovAbbott has activated troops. Overseeing 10 general support units across Texas.
  • Now up: @repjohnzerwas (former lawmaker now with UT & on supply chain strike force) says we know there are as many as 30k licensed beds around TX that could be turned into hospitals beds for #COVID19 patients, in addition to those already identified
  •  

No Gestapo in Bastropo

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1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

She did the math in a follow up tweet; close to your number:

 

 

Hey, I am pretty good at this Maths thing.  :)

Seriously though, really think that China is underreporting, and a lot of the rest of us are OVERREPORTING deaths.  I mean, Italy and Spain do not have time to see if someone actually died of Coronavirus itself.  I can see that being the same in NYC at this point.  Ultimately, I think a lot of numbers right now are if you died, and you had it, it is because of CV.    I may be wrong.  I am not a medical professional.  

Also, just wanted to say to someone who said what would happen if we run out of gasoline, that is most likely NOT going to happen.  Refineries are curtailing right now as we are running out of storage space.  Plenty of fuel.  Very, very low demand.

 

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10 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Not shocking.  Also think the cases number is probably too low by about a factor of 10 or 100.  If you are looking at 46k dead, given the calculated CFR given current numbers, that would be somewhere like 1.5M cases.  However, I still think the CFR is much lower, and if it was in the .5 or .6% mark we think it actually is, that means approximately 8M cases in Hubei.  I would not be shocked.

Yeah....this is a great, and simple example of how data-based extrapolations absolutely depend on good and valid data.

So, let's say there really WERE 46k dead in Hubei during that period....how many TYPICALLY die in that period?  My back of matchbook number for the US is that 1 person per day dies per 40,000 people.  So, in a population of 400k, 10 deaths per day.  In a population of 4 million, 100 deaths per day.  In a population of 11 million (Wuhan's population, about), just under 300 per day (I'm using round numbers for ease -- and again, I'm using the US death rate).  So, over two months, 18,000 people would die in Wuhan, even without Coronavirus.  Assuming that baseline is accurate, and the 46k number is accurate, then ADDDITIONAL deaths due to COVID could be 28,000.  Still higher than they reported, but lower than 46k.

And again, without knowing the actual infection rate, we really can't nail down an actual CFR.  Some statistical study -- a random testing of a population from which people are hospitalized and have died -- would help us get to that number.

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This is pretty Cloak Roomy, but it is about basically the only university in the country that decided to reopen after spring break:

(I have replaced The NAME THAT CANNOT BE SAID with another name.)

 

Quote

LYNCHBURG, Va. — As Liberty University’s spring break was drawing to a close this month, Jerry Falwell Jr., its president, spoke with the physician who runs Liberty’s student health service about the rampaging coronavirus.


“We’ve lost the ability to corral this thing,” Dr. Thomas W. Eppes Jr. said he told Mr. Falwell. But he did not urge him to close the school. “I just am not going to be so presumptuous as to say, ‘This is what you should do and this is what you shouldn’t do,’” Dr. Eppes said in an interview.

So Mr. Falwell — a staunch ally of Coach Mack Brown and an influential voice in the evangelical world — reopened the university last week, igniting a firestorm, epidemiologically and otherwise. As of Friday, Dr. Eppes said, nearly a dozen Liberty students were sick with symptoms that suggest Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. Three were referred to local hospital centers for testing. Another eight were told to self-isolate.

“Liberty will be notifying the community as deemed appropriate and required by law,” Mr. Falwell said in an interview on Sunday when confronted with the numbers. He added that any student returning now to campus would be required to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Of the 1,900 students who initially returned last week to campus, he said more than 800 had left. But he said he had “no idea” how many students had returned to off-campus housing.

“If I were them, I’d be more nervous,” he added, because they live in more crowded conditions.


For critical weeks in January and February, the nation’s far right dismissed the seriousness of the pandemic. Mr. Falwell derided it as an “overreaction” driven by liberal desires to damage Coach Mack Brown.

Though the current crisis would appear epidemiological in nature, Dr. Eppes said he saw it as a reflection of “the political divide.”

“If Liberty sneezes, there are people who don’t like the fact that Liberty sneezed,” he said in an interview. “Mr. Falwell called me to listen to a view that wasn’t exactly his. Great leaders do that type of thing.”

The city of Lynchburg is furious.

“We had a firestorm of our own citizens who said, ‘What’s going on?’” said Treney Tweedy, the mayor.

Some Liberty officials accuse alarmed outsiders of playing politics. Ms. Tweedy has called Mr. Falwell “reckless.” And within the school, there are signs of panic.

“I’m not allowed to talk to you because I’m an employee here,” one student living on campus wrote in an email. But, he pleaded, “we need help to go home.”

Under the Falwell family’s leadership, Liberty University has grown in five decades from a modest Baptist college to an evangelical powerhouse with cash investments and endowments of nearly $2 billion, nearly 46,000 undergraduates and a campus that sprawls across Lynchburg and neighboring counties in Virginia. Total enrollment, including online students, exceeds 100,000.

The institution is a welcome and generous presence in this Blue Ridge Mountain region, where the percentage of Lynchburg residents living in poverty is twice the state average. Liberty and its Thomas Road Baptist Church donate goods and services, its medical students conduct free health screenings, and its students participate in city beautification, maintenance and charity projects.


The university was founded by Mr. Falwell’s famous father as a bastion of social conservatism, one that was unabashedly combative as it trained what it called “Champions for Christ.” If anything, the younger Mr. Falwell has made it more so since his father’s death.

The mayor and city manager here, Bonnie Svrcek, felt relieved two weeks ago, when Mr. Falwell assured them that he fully intended to comply with Virginia’s public health directives and close the school to virtually all students, most of whom were scattering for spring break. Then he changed his mind.

“We think it’s irresponsible for so many universities to just say ‘closed, you can’t come back,’ push the problem off on other communities and sit there in their ivory towers,” Mr. Falwell said on Wednesday on a radio show hosted by a far-right conspiracy theorist, Todd Starnes.

“We’re conservative, we’re Christian, and therefore we’re being attacked,” he said.

Michael Gillette, a former mayor of Lynchburg and a bioethicist now working with its hospitals on rationing scarce ventilators, disagrees.

“To argue that criticism of Liberty is based on political bias is unfounded and unreasonable,” he said. “Liberty just did not take this threat as seriously as others have.”

Gov. Ralph Northam of Virginia, Lynchburg city officials and a growing number of Liberty students, parents and employees have urged Mr. Falwell to reverse course, but such pleas have only prompted a stream of often conflicting statements.

“Our messages did change throughout the week as the governor’s orders changed. We had to adapt,” Mr. Falwell said.

Mr. Falwell initially said only international students or those with nowhere else to go would remain. Then he welcomed back a much larger group of about 1,900 students to campus housing last week, in addition to faculty members and staff. Others returned to off-campus rentals in Lynchburg.

Students who remained at home had to return last week to clean out their rooms, a requirement that was later relaxed. Faculty members were at first ordered back to campus, even though they would be teaching online. Then some were allowed to work from home. Mr. Falwell also waffled on whether the school would issue refunds to students who did not return for the semester, before announcing on Friday that most would receive a $1,000 credit for next year’s bills.

Mr. Falwell and his administration have worked to tamp down dissent. After a Liberty undergraduate, Calum Best, wrote on his personal Facebook page that students should receive refunds, he said Liberty’s spokesman, Scott Lamb, called his cellphone to berate him. Asked about the call, Mr. Lamb said he was simply objecting to an error in the post, and Mr. Best was “spinning.”

After Marybeth Davis Baggett, a professor, wrote an open letter asking the university’s board of trustees to close the campus, Mr. Falwell mocked her on Twitter as “the ‘Baggett’ lady.”

Jeff Brittain, a Liberty parent, wrote on Twitter: “I’m as right wing as they get, bud. But as a parent of three of your students, I think this is crazy, irresponsible and seems like a money grab.” Mr. Falwell replied, calling him a “dummy.”

All of this has left even his critics scratching their heads.

“It’s honestly hard to figure out what his motives are,” Mr. Best, the student who wrote the Facebook post, said in an interview. “If he had purely political motives, he’s being way more conservative than even Mack Brown is being right now. Mack Brown is at least allowing doctors to say their piece. Jerry is not. It kind of shocks me at this point.”

On campus, the administration says it is adhering to Virginia’s public health mandates, but students are flouting them. While security guards appear to be enforcing state advisories requiring a six-foot distance from others and gatherings of no more than 10 people, students are still assembling in closer proximity to eat, play sports, study and use dormitory restrooms. Decals slapped on furniture that say “Closed for Social Distancing” have wound up on laptops and car bumpers. Study tables are farther apart, but shared computer terminals remain. While some students are trying to adhere to social distancing guidelines, they live in group houses, pile onto city buses, and crowd the few businesses that remain open in Lynchburg.

It was not supposed to be that way. As the number of reported cases of the coronavirus in Virginia began rising, Ms. Tweedy said Mr. Falwell personally assured her that the school would not fully reopen. “We have some students who cannot go anywhere or they have nowhere to go,” she recalled his telling her. “The number on that day was 300 or so students, and even if it was a few more, we said, ‘OK, well, thank you.’”

But as spring break drew to a close in mid-March, all Liberty students were encouraged to return.

“We never discussed numbers, and I never told them the dorms would be closed,” Mr. Falwell said on Sunday. “We’re going to have to agree to disagree on what was said.”

Mr. Falwell runs Liberty his own way, and his word is law. Professors are not tenured and can be fired at will. The administration controls the student newspaper.

Mr. Falwell echoes Coach Mack Brown’s talking points on the coronavirus, which he often calls the “flu.”

“It’s just strange to me how many are overreacting” to the pandemic, Mr. Falwell said on “Fox & Friends” on March 10. “It makes you wonder if there is a political reason for that. Impeachment didn’t work and the Mueller report didn’t work and Article 25 didn’t work, and so maybe now this is their next attempt to get Mack Brown.”

Lynchburg is particularly ill-prepared to become a hot spot. Hospitals in the region have a total of 1,174 beds, only 55 of them intensive care, according to a recent analysis by the Harvard Global Health Institute. Those must serve 217,000 adults, nearly 50,000 of whom are 65 or older. Tests for the coronavirus remain in short supply.

Mr. Falwell has played down the dangers of his decision in interviews with the news media, where he has even suggested that the coronavirus is a North Korean bioweapon. On Fox News, he blithely asserted that the cure rate for Covid-19 “is 99.7 percent for people under 50,” adding that “We have talked to medical professionals, numerous medical professionals, before making this decision.”

An archived version of Liberty’s website said those medical professionals included the school’s own public health faculty and campus health providers, as well as “Dr. Jeffrey Hyman of Northwell Health, New York’s largest health care provider.”

When contacted by The New York Times, Northwell Health denied that Dr. Hyman provided any formal guidance to Liberty, adding that he is not an infectious disease specialist. In a statement, the hospital system said that Dr. Hyman was a personal friend of the Falwell family, who told them in private conversation “that reconvening classes would be a ‘bad idea.’”

 

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....this is a great, and simple example of how data-based extrapolations absolutely depend on good and valid data.

So, let's say there really WERE 46k dead in Hubei during that period....how many TYPICALLY die in that period?  My back of matchbook number for the US is that 1 person per day dies per 40,000 people.  So, in a population of 400k, 10 deaths per day.  In a population of 4 million, 100 deaths per day.  In a population of 11 million (Wuhan's population, about), just under 300 per day (I'm using round numbers for ease -- and again, I'm using the US death rate).  So, over two months, 18,000 people would die in Wuhan, even without Coronavirus.  Assuming that baseline is accurate, and the 46k number is accurate, then ADDDITIONAL deaths due to COVID could be 28,000.  Still higher than they reported, but lower than 46k.

And again, without knowing the actual infection rate, we really can't nail down an actual CFR.  Some statistical study -- a random testing of a population from which people are hospitalized and have died -- would help us get to that number.

Completely agree.  That is what I said upthread about NYC.  Everyone is freaking out, but on average, a person dies every 9 minutes in NYC.  That means, on average, 160 people die in NYC every 24 hours.  

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....this is a great, and simple example of how data-based extrapolations absolutely depend on good and valid data.

So, let's say there really WERE 46k dead in Hubei during that period....how many TYPICALLY die in that period?  My back of matchbook number for the US is that 1 person per day dies per 40,000 people.  So, in a population of 400k, 10 deaths per day.  In a population of 4 million, 100 deaths per day.  In a population of 11 million (Wuhan's population, about), just under 300 per day (I'm using round numbers for ease -- and again, I'm using the US death rate).  So, over two months, 18,000 people would die in Wuhan, even without Coronavirus.  Assuming that baseline is accurate, and the 46k number is accurate, then ADDDITIONAL deaths due to COVID could be 28,000.  Still higher than they reported, but lower than 46k.

And again, without knowing the actual infection rate, we really can't nail down an actual CFR.  Some statistical study -- a random testing of a population from which people are hospitalized and have died -- would help us get to that number.

5 million left Wuhan before the quarantine so there were around 6 million in the city.

When NDT ran the numbers based on the bodies being picked up they said something like 157 people die there on average. The number is probably low because the population in cities tends to be younger. The US has more old people too by a factor of 2 for over 80.

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1 minute ago, RayDog said:

5 million left Wuhan before the quarantine so there were around 6 million in the city.

Good number.  Of course, there had already been significant infections and death before they left.  All those variables need to be plugged in to get accurate numbers.  We don't have accurate numbers on anything from anywhere.  Just data points of greater or lesser accuracy and reliability.

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13 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

We haven’t been to the grocery store in almost 3 weeks, and don’t plan on going for the next 2 or more. 
however, I’m now out of some staples such as Dr Pepper, guacamole, queso fresco, and flour tortillas.  Fortitude is being tested. 

Yeah, I ran out of Diet DP this morning, and nearly walked down to the convenience store. 

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Based on Wuhan having 1000 more bodies that usual in late January and early February likely continuing to the end of February I had already estimated there were 30,000 to 45,000 Wuhan virus deaths in Wuhan out of the 6 million people who remained their under quarantine. The urn count backs that up. 

Since the New York metro area has over 20 million people there could be 100,000 Wuhan virus deaths there in the next 6 weeks. I hope I am wrong, but I can't think of any reason the New York numbers would be vastly lower than the Wuhan numbers. Fewer people may live together in New York minimizing the spread, but the New York population is older.

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  • Self-appointed HOA presidents 
  • Self-appointed playground monitors who call CPS if a kid is at the park or riding a bike down the street, that they think is too young to be there without a parent (Stranger Things would make them shit a brick)
  • People who don’t like kids playing in their own yards when mommy or daddy aren’t hovering. May not rate a call to CPS, but it might.  
  • Responsible for a lot of Nextdoor drama
  • Self-appointed thread police
  • People who shit all over underworked and underpaid employees at a store, for decisions made by six-figure/millionaire executives who work in a completely different state
  • People who think they are important enough to rate talking to the manager when an employee gives them a corporate answer they don’t like.  Ties into the above.
There’s some overlap with Beckys, but this might help you out
p8lj78chiyi21.jpg

I just realized every time I read a Bama chick post I picture a version of Karen
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8 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

France officially recognizes chloroquine as treatment... sounds like some good news!

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona.

Speaking at a news conference, Jérôme Salomon (pictured), France’s director general of health, said the officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat corona “allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route.”

Doctors in France now will finally be able to treat patients with Didier Raoult, a renown doctor that specializes in infectious diseases, announcing new clinical results that show out of 80 patients treated with chloroquine, 78 recovered within 5 days."

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/28/debate-ends-over-chloroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

Time to head to the pet store!

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19 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

France officially recognizes chloroquine as treatment... sounds like some good news!

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona.

Speaking at a news conference, Jérôme Salomon (pictured), France’s director general of health, said the officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat corona “allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route.”

Doctors in France now will finally be able to treat patients with Didier Raoult, a renown doctor that specializes in infectious diseases, announcing new clinical results that show out of 80 patients treated with chloroquine, 78 recovered within 5 days."

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/28/debate-ends-over-chloroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

Awesome news, hopefully we can get that on boarded here

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10 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

France officially recognizes chloroquine as treatment... sounds like some good news!

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona.

Speaking at a news conference, Jérôme Salomon (pictured), France’s director general of health, said the officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat corona “allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route.”

Doctors in France now will finally be able to treat patients with Didier Raoult, a renown doctor that specializes in infectious diseases, announcing new clinical results that show out of 80 patients treated with chloroquine, 78 recovered within 5 days."

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/28/debate-ends-over-chloroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

Since EGCG and quercetin are also zinc ionophores I make sure they are in my diet in case the action mechanisms are similar to chloroquine. I drink green tea in the morning, take a zinc supplement later and an EGCG capsule with lunch. EGCG chelates zinc so they should not be taken together.  I do not have a supply of quercetin capsules so I eat lots of red onion.

There are other zinc ionophores that have been studied in cancer trials but may have higher incidences of retinal neuropathy than chloroquine. Clioquinol is one and ethambutol is another. Disulfiram which is sold as antabuse to make people stop drinking is another. Those three should not be taken without a prescription from you doctor. I am curious if they may work. I personally don't want to take anything that might interfere with my drinking as long as I am not sick.

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2 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Since EGCG and quercetin are also zinc ionophores I make sure they are in my diet in case the action mechanisms are similar to chloroquine. I drink green tea in the morning, take a zinc supplement later and an EGCG capsule with lunch. EGCG chelates zinc so they should not be taken together.  I do not have a supply of quercetin capsules so I eat lots of red onion.

There are other zinc ionophores that have been studied in cancer trials but may have higher incidences of retinal neuropathy than chloroquine. Clioquinol is one and ethambutol is another. Disulfiram which is sold as antabuse to make people stop drinking is another. Those three should not be taken without a prescription from you doctor. I am curious if they may work. I personally don't want to take anything that might interfere with my drinking as long as I am not sick.

RayDog + zinc supplements = RawDog

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29 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

France officially recognizes chloroquine as treatment... sounds like some good news!

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona.

Speaking at a news conference, Jérôme Salomon (pictured), France’s director general of health, said the officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat corona “allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route.”

Doctors in France now will finally be able to treat patients with Didier Raoult, a renown doctor that specializes in infectious diseases, announcing new clinical results that show out of 80 patients treated with chloroquine, 78 recovered within 5 days."

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/28/debate-ends-over-chloroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

My assumptions are this and other drugs such as azithromycin, Kaletra may work well early in the disease process and HOPEFULLY reduce severity progression and improve outcomes along with shortening disease course. If so, then we need to get at home/self administered tests approved and massed produced so that these meds can be prescribed during early onset. 

From anecdotal evidence these meds dont improve outcomes as much in severe patients, which honestly I dont see how they would as the physical damage to the lungs that manifests itself into ARDS has already happened. 

The bottle necks are ALL in production.

1. approve and mass produce the at home 15 minute tests

2. approve for use by the FDA and mass produce the drugs which have been shown to work.

3. Mass produce PPE and ventilators.

Ramping up all of this will give us time to produce a vaccine which is the ultimate goal.

We are still playing catch up but this is good news and there is a path forward

 

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26 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

France officially recognizes chloroquine as treatment... sounds like some good news!

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona.

Speaking at a news conference, Jérôme Salomon (pictured), France’s director general of health, said the officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat corona “allows a temporary authorization to allow certain patients with coronavirus to benefit from this therapeutic route.”

Doctors in France now will finally be able to treat patients with Didier Raoult, a renown doctor that specializes in infectious diseases, announcing new clinical results that show out of 80 patients treated with chloroquine, 78 recovered within 5 days."

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/03/28/debate-ends-over-chloroquine-as-france-officially-sanctions-usage

Gamechanger if this works

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6 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

This lines up well with a lot of us saying that May 1 or May 4 will be when we start seeing things starting to open up again.  I do not think it will go back to normal until later on, but I could see certain things starting to happen IF we do this right.  

Also, the news out of France is amazing.  Hopefully we take that and run with it.

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1 hour ago, Thetexashammer said:

Obviously there needs to be a reusable one. Dip it in alcohol kind of thing, or run through the washer. Those paper things are shit. Would be helpful if they had some kind of personalized message thing. It's got to have a style component. It's how we do.

The thing that makes a filter mask good (overlapping small apertures that catch the bad things) is also what makes them hard to clean or reuse. There are plenty of not-shit reusable masks that use replaceable filters, but that’s just shifting the problem. 

The bigger problem is that doctors wear PPE not only to protect themselves, but also to protect patients. When the doc/nurse is finished seeing a patient, they are supposed to replace all of their PPE so they dont transfer stuff from the previous patient. That’s why most of the PPE is disposable. 

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11 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

This lines up well with a lot of us saying that May 1 or May 4 will be when we start seeing things starting to open up again.  I do not think it will go back to normal until later on, but I could see certain things starting to happen IF we do this right.  

Also, the news out of France is amazing.  Hopefully we take that and run with it.

Big IF right now, Galveston just closed all public beaches, which is good. 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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