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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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On the topic of shitty testing, Dallas never opened the drive-through testing sites today because it's supposed to rain.  Of course, at this point it hasn't rained at all yet and isn't really supposed to until later this afternoon/evening.  And also from what I understand, each testing site typically runs out of their daily test kits by around this time every day regardless.  So seems pretty likely testing could have been completed for the day as scheduled before a drop of rain hit.  Ridiculous.

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1 minute ago, UDontKnow said:

If this is true, I wish it could be grounds for invading and overthrowing the evil communist regime of China that threatens global security. 

Yeah. This shit ain't gonna stop until China is forced to stop it themselves. I don't know what the right answer is, but it can't be allowed to continue. 

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1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

Yeah. This shit ain't gonna stop until China is forced to stop it themselves. I don't know what the right answer is, but it can't be allowed to continue. 

Quarantine them? Move industry out. Social media campaigns with no pause. 

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Yep, I read one of the epidemiologist predict that we're going to see a "nationwide flattening" in the next 7 days or so but it's going to solely be a result of our inability to keep up with testing as cases continue to rise (i.e., more cases than ability to test).  He also predicted it will be widely celebrated that 'flattening' is working without any appreciation for the nuance that testing has to continue to increase at the pace of the spread for meaningful data.


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Medtronic publishes specs for ventilator, enables other companies to build
Medtronic Shares Ventilation Design Specifications to Accelerate Efforts to Increase Global Ventilator Production
DUBLIN, March 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --  Medtronic plc (MDT), the global leader in medical technology, today announced it is publicly sharing the design specifications for the Puritan Bennett 560 (PB 560) to enable participants across industries to evaluate options for rapid ventilator manufacturing to help doctors and patients dealing with COVID-19. This decision is consistent with the recent FDA Guidance and in accordance with the public health and medical response of governmental agencies globally.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medtronic-shares-ventilation-design-specifications-121510826.html
specs here:  https://www.medtronic.com/us-en/e/open-files.html


No royalty fee? That would be a very big deal.
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Just now, UDontKnow said:

Ideal scenario, but you know how corporate America works.

Incentives for the win. Central America should become the major manufacturing location for the US. EU can do the same with Africa. Some asian countries can be included. But no incentives for industry in China. 

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

At this point, those wet markets are a known threat to global security.  By continuing them, China is endangering the entire human race.  The answer has to be firm, and uniform, sanction of some sort.  Seriously, we sanction the hell outta North Korea for playing around with nukes, but their carelessness hasn't actually nuked anyone.  China has already nuked humanity with COVID-19 (and they should have learned from SARS).  Continuing with the same reckless, cavalier, and deadly conduct?

I see no problem with a ban of all travel and entry by Chinese nationals.  All of them.  Nobody with Chinese citizenship/residency gets into any other country so long as these markets continue to operate.  They can still participate in the economy, ship goods, etc.....of course all such goods will be quarantined for 14 days to allow time for any viruses to die.  If China wants to roll around in deadly viruses, we can't stop them.  But we can stop them from coming here or sending shit here that will kill us, too.  If everyone of note takes these measures, China knows where their bread is buttered -- they'll shut that shit down, with authoritarian force.

Muslim terrorists aren't really coming to kill me.  North Korean nukes aren't really coming to kill me.  People infected with diseases originating in a Chinese wet market ARE coming to kill me.  Shut them down.

 

Very culturally insensitive.  I was told that wet wild game markets are really no different than a doggy kiss. 

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48 minutes ago, Shaggybevo said:

Medtronic publishes specs for ventilator, enables other companies to build

Medtronic Shares Ventilation Design Specifications to Accelerate Efforts to Increase Global Ventilator Production

DUBLIN, March 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --  Medtronic plc (MDT), the global leader in medical technology, today announced it is publicly sharing the design specifications for the Puritan Bennett™ 560 (PB 560) to enable participants across industries to evaluate options for rapid ventilator manufacturing to help doctors and patients dealing with COVID-19. This decision is consistent with the recent FDA Guidance and in accordance with the public health and medical response of governmental agencies globally.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/medtronic-shares-ventilation-design-specifications-121510826.html

specs here:  https://www.medtronic.com/us-en/e/open-files.html

Medtronic or one of their acquisitions, IIRC, is also the company that killed a government contract back in the early 2000's to ramp up the national strategic stockpile of ventilators by developing a new low cost ventilator. 

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12 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Incentives for the win. Central America should become the major manufacturing location for the US. EU can do the same with Africa. Some asian countries can be included. But no incentives for industry in China. 

Side benefit: raise the standard of living in a lot of areas, will help boost tourism, etc.

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28 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

This took way to long to call and it still is far from perfect. People will still travel across the state and cases will spread. This requires uniformity across the state (and the nation to be honest).

Siesta Key is about to get overrun.

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Medtronic or one of their acquisitions, IIRC, is also the company that killed a government contract back in the early 2000's to ramp up the national strategic stockpile of ventilators by developing a new low cost ventilator. 

Here is the article. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html/?

The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.

As the coronavirus spreads, the collapse of the project helps explain America’s acute shortage.

A U.S. Strategic National Stockpile in Texas. The government has thousands of ventilators, but not enough to cope with the coronavirus pandemic.Credit...Cooper Neill for The New York Times

By Nicholas Kulish, Sarah Kliff and Jessica Silver-Greenberg

March 29, 2020

Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators.

The breathing-assistance machines tended to be bulky, expensive and limited in number. The plan was to build a large fleet of inexpensive portable devices to deploy in a flu pandemic or another crisis.

Money was budgeted. A federal contract was signed. Work got underway.

And then things suddenly veered off course. A multibillion-dollar maker of medical devices bought the small California company that had been hired to design the new machines. The project ultimately produced zero ventilators.

That failure delayed the development of an affordable ventilator by at least half a decade, depriving hospitals, states and the federal government of the ability to stock up. The federal government started over with another company in 2014, whose ventilator was approved only last year and whose products have not yet been delivered.

Today, with the coronavirus ravaging America’s health care system, the nation’s emergency-response stockpile is still waiting on its first shipment. The scarcity of ventilators has become an emergency, forcing doctors to make life-or-death decisions about who gets to breathe and who does not.

The stalled efforts to create a new class of cheap, easy-to-use ventilators highlight the perils of outsourcing projects with critical public-health implications to private companies; their focus on maximizing profits is not always consistent with the government’s goal of preparing for a future crisis.

Image

Thomas R. Frieden, the former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “We definitely saw the problem,” he said.Credit...Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

“We definitely saw the problem,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2009 to 2017. “We innovated to try and get a solution. We made really good progress, but it doesn’t appear to have resulted in the volume that we needed.”

The project — code-named Aura — came in the wake of a parade of near-miss pandemics: SARS, MERS, bird flu and swine flu.

Federal officials decided to re-evaluate their strategy for the next public health emergency. They considered vaccines, antiviral drugs, protective gear and ventilators, the last line of defense for patients suffering respiratory failure. The federal government’s Strategic National Stockpile had full-service ventilators in its warehouses, but not in the quantities that would be needed to combat a major pandemic.

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In 2006, the Department of Health and Human Services established a new division, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, with a mandate to prepare medical responses to chemical, biological and nuclear attacks, as well as infectious diseases.

In its first year in operation, the research agency considered how to expand the number of ventilators. It estimated that an additional 70,000 machines would be required in a moderate influenza pandemic.

The ventilators in the national stockpile were not ideal. In addition to being big and expensive, they required a lot of training to use. The research agency convened a panel of experts in November 2007 to devise a set of requirements for a new generation of mobile, easy-to-use ventilators.

In 2008, the government requested proposals from companies that were interested in designing and building the ventilators.

The goal was for the machines to be approved by regulators for mass development by 2010 or 2011, according to budget documents that the Department of Health and Human Services submitted to Congress in 2008. After that, the government would buy as many as 40,000 new ventilators and add them to the national stockpile.

Image

The federal government has spent years trying to increase the supply of ventilators in its strategic stockpile.Credit...Cooper Neill for The New York Times

The ventilators were to cost less than $3,000 each. The lower the price, the more machines the government would be able to buy.

Companies submitted bids for the Project Aura job. The research agency opted not to go with a large, established device maker. Instead it chose Newport Medical Instruments, a small outfit in Costa Mesa, Calif.

Newport, which was owned by a Japanese medical device company, only made ventilators. Being a small, nimble company, Newport executives said, would help it efficiently fulfill the government’s needs.

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Ventilators at the time typically went for about $10,000 each, and getting the price down to $3,000 would be tough. But Newport’s executives bet they would be able to make up for any losses by selling the ventilators around the world.

“It would be very prestigious to be recognized as a supplier to the federal government,” said Richard Crawford, who was Newport’s head of research and development at the time. “We thought the international market would be strong, and there is where Newport would have a good profit on the product.”

Federal officials were pleased. In addition to replenishing the national stockpile, “we also thought they’d be so attractive that the commercial market would want to buy them, too,” said Nicole Lurie, who was then the assistant secretary for preparedness and response inside the Department of Health and Human Services. With luck, the new generation of ventilators would become ubiquitous, helping hospitals nationwide better prepare for a crisis.

The contract was officially awarded a few months after the H1N1 outbreak, which the C.D.C. estimated infected 60 million and killed 12,000 in the United States, began to taper off in 2010. The contract called for Newport to receive $6.1 million upfront, with the expectation that the government would pay millions more as it bought thousands of machines to fortify the stockpile.

Project Aura was Newport’s first job for the federal government. Things moved quickly and smoothly, employees and federal officials said in interviews.

Every three months, officials with the biomedical research agency would visit Newport’s headquarters. Mr. Crawford submitted monthly reports detailing the company’s spending and progress.

The federal officials “would check everything,” he said. “If we said we were buying equipment, they would want to know what it was used for. There were scheduled visits, scheduled requirements and deliverables each month.”

In 2011, Newport shipped three working prototypes from the company’s California plant to Washington for federal officials to review.

Dr. Frieden, who ran the C.D.C. at the time, got a demonstration in a small conference room attached to his office. “I got all excited,” he said. “It was a multiyear effort that had resulted in something that was going to be really useful.”

In April 2012, a senior Health and Human Services official testified before Congress that the program was “on schedule to file for market approval in September 2013.” After that, the machines would go into production.

Then everything changed.

The medical device industry was undergoing rapid consolidation, with one company after another merging with or acquiring other makers. Manufacturers wanted to pitch themselves as one-stop shops for hospitals, which were getting bigger, and that meant offering a broader suite of products. In May 2012, Covidien, a large medical device manufacturer, agreed to buy Newport for just over $100 million.

Covidien — a publicly traded company with sales of $12 billion that year — already sold traditional ventilators, but that was only a small part of its multifaceted businesses. In 2012 alone, Covidien bought five other medical device companies, in addition to Newport.

Newport executives and government officials working on the ventilator contract said they immediately noticed a change when Covidien took over. Developing inexpensive portable ventilators no longer seemed like a top priority.

Newport applied in June 2012 for clearance from the Food and Drug Administration to market the device, but two former federal officials said Covidien had demanded additional funding and a higher sales price for the ventilators. The government gave the company an additional $1.4 million, a drop in the bucket for a company Covidien’s size.

Government officials and executives at rival ventilator companies said they suspected that Covidien had acquired Newport to prevent it from building a cheaper product that would undermine Covidien’s profits from its existing ventilator business.

Some Newport executives who worked on the project were reassigned to other roles. Others decided to leave the company.

“Up until the time the company sold, I was really happy and excited about the project,” said Hong-Lin Du, Newport’s president at the time of its sale. “Then I was assigned to a different job.”

Image

Hong-Lin Du was the president of Newport Medical Instruments, a small company in Costa Mesa, Calif., at the time of its sale to Covidien.Credit...Tag Christof for The New York Times

In 2014, with no ventilators having been delivered to the government, Covidien executives told officials at the biomedical research agency that they wanted to get out of the contract, according to three former federal officials. The executives complained that it was not sufficiently profitable for the company.

The government agreed to cancel the contract. The world was focused at the time on the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The research agency started over, awarding a new contract for $13.8 million to the giant Dutch company Philips. In 2015, Covidien was sold for $50 billion to another huge medical device company, Medtronic. Charles J. Dockendorff, Covidien’s former chief financial officer, said he did not know why the contract had fallen apart. “I am not aware of that issue,” he said in a text message.

Robert J. White, president of the minimally invasive therapies group at Medtronic who worked at Covidien during the Newport acquisition, initially said he had no recollection of the Project Aura contract. A Medtronic spokeswoman later said that Mr. White was under the impression that the contract had been winding down before Covidien bought Newport.

In a statement Sunday night, after the article was published, Medtronic said, “The prototype ventilator, developed by Newport Medical, would not have been able to meet the specifications required by the government, nor at the price required.” Medtronic said that one problem was that the machine was not going to be usable with newborns.

It wasn’t until last July that the F.D.A. signed off on the new Philips ventilator, the Trilogy Evo. The government ordered 10,000 units in December, setting a delivery date in mid-2020.

As the extent of the spread of the new coronavirus in the United States became clear, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, revealed on March 15 that the stockpile had 12,700 ventilators ready to deploy. The government has since sped up maintenance to increase the number available to 16,660 — still fewer than a quarter of what officials years earlier had estimated would be required in a moderate flu pandemic.

Last week, the Health and Human Services Department contacted ventilator makers to see how soon they could produce thousands of machines. And it began pressing Philips to speed up its planned shipments.

The stockpile is “still awaiting delivery of the Trilogy Evo,” a Health and Human Services spokeswoman said. “We do not currently have any in inventory, though we are expecting them soon.”

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1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Here's how this is going to go down.

Over the next few weeks one or two of these antivirals are going to prove to be effective enough to keep the death mostly limited to the very elderly and very unhealthy, which will allow us to open the economy back up (perhaps with some distancing measures still in place). We'll make it to a vaccine early next year. A bunch of morons will claim that they were right about it being "no big deal, just another flu" the whole time, despite the fact that the only reason we mostly made it through it was because the professionals didn't listen to the morons, and shut everything down for two months. By middle of next year everything will be fully back to normal, and we will have forgotten all of the lessons we learned. China will still be eating fucking bats and spiders and whatever other bullshit they eat. We as a country will still refuse to stock up on hospital equipment and gear that we'll need if this happens again because it would require we buy one less fighter jet. People will still profit-take every ounce of blood out of their businesses so that a one-week interruption in revenue requires bailouts, and we'll derp along until the next crisis hits with a bunch of toilet paper in our attics.

Way she goes.

look, this thing was never going to be millions dead in the US, that is where the problem started. people using models to predict stupid numbers and scare the shit out of everyone.  It was certianly going to be 10's of thousands and possibly 100K+.  We weren't going to do nothing.  no one will ever know if the death rate was worse than normal flu and no one will ever know what it would be if we did something between nothing and the small sledgehammer we used(large sledgehammer being military enforced martial law quarantine of the entire country all at once which everyone wanted).

Everyone was certainly more concerned because unlike H1N1 we didn't have a base to work from for a vaccine and because, unlike H1N1, this thing had a likely 1.5 to 2 month head start.  A virus doesn't roll out evenly through a population.

Supposedly(per wiki)there were only 115K confirmed cases and 3400 confirmed deaths by states during H1N1.  Someone at CDC wrote a clinical paper in Oct stating that 22M people were estimated to have H1N1 and 4K estimated deaths 6 months into the virus.  by the end that had been extrapolated to 60M and 12K deaths.  walla! CFR of .02 or 20% of flu, no big deal.  The reality is we have no idea how many people had H1N1 in the US.  Get this. We extrapolated 115K actual cases to 60M using arbitrary estimates of hospitalizations and estimates of cases.  Even the deaths are estimated.  Estimations of Estimations and those estimations have wide ranges. For example, in July 2009 they estimated an under count of 80 cases per every confirmed case.  The 80 came from a range of 47-148.  Thats a pretty damn wide range.

Should we force every citizen to get an antibody test so we can get an actual hospitalizations/death rate for one of the worst viruses we have seen in 200 years as a country?

By the way the death rate from flu is estimated the same way but of course they have decades of data on that so it is likely much more accurate.

Furthermore, there is no playbook for shutting the entire country down immediately or even within a couple of weeks(maybe there is something as it relates to a nuclear strike from the 60's).  States have some autonomy.  Even when it was obvious NY was a hotspot the governor was opposed to his state being quarantined. He threatened to sue another state for them trying to track down or stop people from his state.

why can't a state lock itself down  to inbound travelers that aren't full time residents?

Can the federal govt quarantine some areas/states and not others?  They can control US boarders but can they control State borders.  

the playbook(state, fed, legal, medical, supply chain, etc)will need to be written now.

Edited by dcar00
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I've been going up to my office just to get away from my wife. Hardly anyone is there, and I avoid whoever is.  Even though it's bucee's level clean, I won't even go in the public bathroom if I have an empty bottle in my office.  But I hear the elevator dinging all damn day.  Why would anyone get on an elevator right now?

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There is a new theory by virologist that Covid-19 did not start in the wet markets but the conditions allowed it to spread quicker. I am withholding judgement on the wet markets, because it may be a result of population density vs environmental conditions...

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A conservative evangelical pastor has suggested to his followers that God will help multiply their toilet rolls amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In a clip posted to Twitter, pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, leader of the Florida-based Revival Ministries International, told his congregation that “this should be a time of supernatural sustenance, where what you have in your hand will multiply.”

“And every day there will be multiplications,” he continued. “You look at your toilet paper and you think I’m going to run out of toilet paper, but you have another roll where that one was and you don’t know how did that even take place.”

Howard-Brown added: “Are the toilet paper rolls getting together and having families now? What is taking place? When you look again, there’s still enough. You think you’re going to run out but when you look again there’s still enough. That’s supernatural sustenance.”

 

https://getaka.co.in/usa-news/conservative-pastor-who-refused-to-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-by-multiplying-toilet-rolls/

Usually these crooks aren't so declarative with the supernatural bullshit. This is a funny one 

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1 minute ago, LABEVO said:

There is a new theory by virologist that Covid-19 did not start in the wet markets but the conditions allowed it to spread quicker. I am withholding judgement on the wet markets, because it may be a result of population density vs environmental conditions...

Can you link some background reading on this.

Does it go something like: started in nature, wild animal brought from nature into market, slaughtered in unsanitary conditions, made jump to humans in market?

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4 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

There is a new theory by virologist that Covid-19 did not start in the wet markets but the conditions allowed it to spread quicker. I am withholding judgement on the wet markets, because it may be a result of population density vs environmental conditions...

I’m going to go ahead and judge that eating bats is a bad idea.

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2 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

A conservative evangelical pastor has suggested to his followers that God will help multiply their toilet rolls amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In a clip posted to Twitter, pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, leader of the Florida-based Revival Ministries International, told his congregation that “this should be a time of supernatural sustenance, where what you have in your hand will multiply.”

“And every day there will be multiplications,” he continued. “You look at your toilet paper and you think I’m going to run out of toilet paper, but you have another roll where that one was and you don’t know how did that even take place.”

Howard-Brown added: “Are the toilet paper rolls getting together and having families now? What is taking place? When you look again, there’s still enough. You think you’re going to run out but when you look again there’s still enough. That’s supernatural sustenance.”

 

https://getaka.co.in/usa-news/conservative-pastor-who-refused-to-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-by-multiplying-toilet-rolls/

Usually these crooks aren't so declarative with the supernatural bullshit. This is a funny one 

It is the old Scranton Two Ply trick. 

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7 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

There is a new theory by virologist that Covid-19 did not start in the wet markets but the conditions allowed it to spread quicker. I am withholding judgement on the wet markets, because it may be a result of population density vs environmental conditions...

Let me guess, his name is Ho Lee Fuk?

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8 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

A conservative evangelical pastor has suggested to his followers that God will help multiply their toilet rolls amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In a clip posted to Twitter, pastor Rodney Howard-Browne, leader of the Florida-based Revival Ministries International, told his congregation that “this should be a time of supernatural sustenance, where what you have in your hand will multiply.”

“And every day there will be multiplications,” he continued. “You look at your toilet paper and you think I’m going to run out of toilet paper, but you have another roll where that one was and you don’t know how did that even take place.”

Howard-Brown added: “Are the toilet paper rolls getting together and having families now? What is taking place? When you look again, there’s still enough. You think you’re going to run out but when you look again there’s still enough. That’s supernatural sustenance.”

 

https://getaka.co.in/usa-news/conservative-pastor-who-refused-to-close-church-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-suggests-god-will-help-by-multiplying-toilet-rolls/

Usually these crooks aren't so declarative with the supernatural bullshit. This is a funny one 

Man, the gospels left shit out.  Jesus can multiply loaves....fishes.....and Charmin?  I mean, after the 5,000 ate all that bread and fish, I guess a lot of 'em had to take a big dump, so this makes sense.

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11 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

There is a new theory by virologist that Covid-19 did not start in the wet markets but the conditions allowed it to spread quicker. I am withholding judgement on the wet markets, because it may be a result of population density vs environmental conditions...

So back to the it started in the Wuhan Virology lab? I thought that theory (which I admit I believed at first because the odds of it being a coincidence happening so close to a virology lab seemed to good to be true) was debunked by the recent study published in Nature explaining that 96% of the genome was consistent with the other known and sequenced coronaviruses while the other 4% could be explained by viral evolution models.

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Yep, I read one of the epidemiologist predict that we're going to see a "nationwide flattening" in the next 7 days or so but it's going to solely be a result of our inability to keep up with testing as cases continue to rise (i.e., more cases than ability to test).  He also predicted it will be widely celebrated that 'flattening' is working without any appreciation for the nuance that testing has to continue to increase at the pace of the spread for meaningful data.

We can rarely test people that present covid symptoms, and we don't report hospitalization rates. Outside of reported deaths, I'm uncertain how we will know much.  Decisions are going to trail new trends by over a week.  And when I see projections, they always imply that a week or two of inaction, can have drastic consequences.

Leaders or business owners that want to get back to normal will rightfully start requesting that we start to lower restrictions soon. We all know that is wrong but the govt can't keep the city closed on a hunch.

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13 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Can you link some background reading on this.

Does it go something like: started in nature, wild animal brought from nature into market, slaughtered in unsanitary conditions, made jump to humans in market?

It was an interview with George Fu Gao, China head of CDC. The tone was there is not enough evidence yet vs it did not originate in wet markets...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_F._Gao

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1 minute ago, UDontKnow said:

So back to the it started in the Wuhan Virology lab? I thought that theory (which I admit I believed at first because the odds of it being a coincidence happening so close to a virology lab seemed to good to be true) was debunked by the recent study published in Nature explaining that 96% of the genome was consistent with the other known and sequenced coronaviruses while the other 4% could be explained by viral evolution models.

I thought the theory was it isn't synthetic but that it was natural and it could have escaped from the lab through a normal transmission.

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2 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

It was an interview with George Fu Gao, China head of CDC.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_F._Gao

In that case, I'm automatically dismissing it because Chinese Communist Party.

And speaking of them, this female physician might be missing (would not be surprising given the timing since China is in recovery now)

https://www.opindia.com/2020/03/china-doctor-ai-fen-first-raise-alarm-coronavirus-disappears/

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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