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I've seen it mentioned a few times by others about the low numbers of testing done in Texas. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately, but on the news last night a lady who was waiting for results claimed that the reason it's taking so long and the number of tests were so low is because there is only one facility in Texas processing tests. Any truth to that? I'm sure there is more than one lab that could do this.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Modessit said:

I've seen it mentioned a few times by others about the low numbers of testing done in Texas. I haven't seen it mentioned here lately, but on the news last night a lady who was waiting for results claimed that the reason it's taking so long and the number of tests were so low is because there is only one facility in Texas processing tests. Any truth to that? I'm sure there is more than one lab that could do this.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/28/coronavirus-test-results-texas-are-taking-10-days/
 

Quote

Texas’ 10 public health labs can together analyze close to 700 “specimens” a day

Quote

Quest pegged its test turnaround time at 4-5 days on average, but said it can vary across the country, ranging from “a day or two” to “about a week from specimen pickup” elsewhere.

A LabCorp spokesperson said patients receive their test results in 4-5 days, on average, after the “specimen” is picked up for testing. The time frame can “vary based on demand,” depending on how long it takes to transport the sample to LabCorp’s test facilities and the order in which patients are prioritized, said spokesperson Mike Geller.

 

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The only thing I distrust about that article is that it says that all 10 "can" process 700 tests per day, but doesn't say they "are". Then it mentions some stuff from national testing companies.

How is NY getting 6000 positives per day and Texas can only do 700 tests per day?

There are plenty of companies like Worldwide Clinical Trials (formerly known as CEDRA) here in Austin and around Texas that could be doing this. Every one should be pressed into duty.
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3 minutes ago, Modessit said:

The only thing I distrust about that article is that it says that all 10 "can" process 700 tests per day, but doesn't say they "are". Then it mentions some stuff from national testing companies.

How is NY getting 6000 positives per day and Texas can only do 700 tests per day?

There are plenty of companies like Worldwide Clinical Trials (formerly known as CEDRA) here in Austin and around Texas that could be doing this. Every one should be pressed into duty.

right fucking now.

 

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1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I really have not argued with you.  I don’t think we are far off on how we think.  I just let some of the crazier predictions slide because being overly worried probably beats being too lackadaisical.  I don’t see you being lackadaisical but rather just annoyed at some of the hysteria.  
 

I guess I just think the way you’re saying things may rub people the wrong way but what you’re actually saying isn’t crazy.  Be vigilant.  Don’t freak out.  Texas is not heading towards Italy unless you don’t stay vigilant.  All fair points.  

Thats interesting you gained this from his post. It just sounds like someone ranting at the absurd instead of connecting with the normal and constructing a way forward. but hey, thats his shtick I guess. 

re: data re: 8% testing positive. What are the guidelines for testing? Here in Oz this data point would be relatively weak as we only test cases that require hospitalisation, ergo anything that looks like its the flu and is severe enough to get tested. I have no idea of the positive rate here, but no doubt its also influenced by people freaking out, so prob similar to this ~ 10% rate. However in the US you have flu season A - that makes this data point somewhat less interesting, and B - you have no testing of asymptomatic people and/or people with mild symptoms who are not going to he hospital and therefore not getting testing. I fit the later category but of course have no clue how many of me there are. 

Hope you are ok man and stay healthy best you can. 

Edited by staboner
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3 minutes ago, staboner said:

guess I just think the way you’re saying things may rub people the wrong way but what you’re actually saying isn’t crazy.  Be vigilant.  Don’t freak out.  Texas is not heading towards Italy unless you don’t stay vigilant.  All fair points.  

nope, freak out is all florida's job currently with a little bit of mississippi in em.

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54 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We shouldn’t be - we don’t have a bunch of textile factories staffed by imported Chinese, including more than a few from Wuhan.  

Or auto parts manufacturers heavily in commerce with China.

Quote

Prato, Tuscany has the largest concentration of Chinese people in Italy and all of Europe. It has the second largest population of Chinese people overall in Italy after Milan.[2]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Italy

Edited by TwiceHorn
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The only thing I distrust about that article is that it says that all 10 "can" process 700 tests per day, but doesn't say they "are". Then it mentions some stuff from national testing companies.

How is NY getting 6000 positives per day and Texas can only do 700 tests per day?

There are plenty of companies like Worldwide Clinical Trials (formerly known as CEDRA) here in Austin and around Texas that could be doing this. Every one should be pressed into duty.

I think Texas is greatly under testing which may hurt us more
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26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Italy had direct flights to Wuhan, and imported well over a hundred thousand Chinese workers for Italian textile factories. 

 

11 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Or auto parts manufacturers heavily in commerce with China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Italy

Ok I guess I missed a post as to why that would matter or I had too many beers. It got their quicker and with more clusters but after that who cares? We are dealing with the same problem.

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

And in that requote I’ll quote this part too, where I repeat to clowns like you for the 500th time on this thread that once the variables start getting removed, the academic models start skewing further and further into stupidity because chaos isn’t factored well in the classroom by dorks and quants who forget that the real world doesn’t happen in a test tube or spreadsheet. 

Did you get beat up by the Chemistry Club in high school or something?

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I think Texas is greatly under testing which may hurt us more

Are we under-testing because we don't have the tests? Or are we not getting the results of testing because we haven't sufficiently set up the processing necessary to handle the workload? We could test 10000 a day but if we only process 700 a day then we'll only see 700 results per day and the backlog just gets bigger. We need more info on what is being done as far as tests administered and more info on who is processing and what their capabilities are. If we don't have the tests - then get them. If we don't have the processing capability, then we need to figure out how to increase it.

 

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59 minutes ago, staboner said:

Thats interesting you gained this from his post. It just sounds like someone ranting at the absurd instead of connecting with the normal and constructing a way forward. but hey, thats his shtick I guess. 

re: data re: 8% testing positive. What are the guidelines for testing? Here in Oz this data point would be relatively weak as we only test cases that require hospitalisation, ergo anything that looks like its the flu and is severe enough to get tested. I have no idea of the positive rate here, but no doubt its also influenced by people freaking out, so prob similar to this ~ 10% rate. However in the US you have flu season A - that makes this data point somewhat less interesting, and B - you have no testing of asymptomatic people and/or people with mild symptoms who are not going to he hospital and therefore not getting testing. I fit the later category but of course have no clue how many of me there are. 

Hope you are ok man and stay healthy best you can. 

I agree w the ranting.  That’s why I said he may be trying to get a rise.  But he seems to toe the line to quarantine and be a good neighbor.  I have a bigger issue w the nutters who really do harm by putting out propaganda, violating quarantine, and even throwing ‘Corona Parties’.   

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Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne said he wouldn't close the doors of his Tampa, Florida, megachurch until the End Times begin. The police weren't willing to wait that long.

On Monday, Florida sheriff's deputies arrested the evangelical pastor, who has continued to host large church services despite public orders urging residents to stay home to help contain the spread of the novel coronavirus.
Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister said Howard-Browne has been charged with two counts: unlawful assembly and a violation of health emergency rules. Both are second-degree misdemeanors, Chronister said at a press conference Monday.
Rodney Howard-Browne in his booking photo Monday.
Rodney Howard-Browne in his booking photo Monday.
Last week Hillsborough County issued an order directing residents to remain at home effective March 27 except for "essential services" -- including trips to the grocery store, the doctor's office and the pharmacy. The county's list of "essential services" does not include attending church.
Florida has more than 5,200 confirmed coronavirus cases and at least 63 deaths, according to the state's health department.
Chronister said he and the department's lawyers have repeatedly urged Howard-Browne to close his River at Tampa Bay Church, making personal requests and speaking with the church's attorney. On Sunday, police went to the church to speak with the pastor, "who did not make himself available," Chronister said.
The church held two services that day. A video on the church's Facebook page shows a large group of people in attendance.
Pastor arrested for holding services despite stay-at-home order

Pastor arrested for holding services despite stay-at-home order 01:31
"His reckless disregard for human life put hundreds of people in his congregation at risk," Chronister said at a news conference on Monday, "as well as put thousands of residents who may interact with them in danger."
Howard-Browne was arrested in Hernando County, where he lives, and was not immediately available for comment.
But one of his attorneys issued a statement Monday challenging the logic of the county's stay-at-home order and saying the River church took extra health precautions for its services Sunday. The church gave each attendee hand sanitizer, had its staffers wear gloves and enforced a six-foot distance between family groups in the auditorium, attorney Mat Staver said.
"Not only did the church comply with the administrative order regarding six-foot distancing, it went above and beyond any other business to ensure the health and safety of the people," Staver added. "Contrary to Sheriff Chronister's allegation that Pastor Howard-Browne was 'reckless," the actions of Hillsborough Country and the Hernando County Sheriff are discriminatory against religion and church gatherings."
Pastor: 'The thing is blown totally way out of proportion'
Since Coach Mack Brown declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency, most churches, mosques, synagogues and temples have temporarily shut down. But there have been a few defiant outliers, including a pastor in Louisiana.
Howard-Browne, who was born in South Africa and built the River into a megachurch with 4,000 members, is a prominent evangelical who prayed in the Oval Office with Trump in 2017. In recent days the Pentecostal preacher has made controversial remarks and floated conspiratorial theories about the coronavirus.
Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says 1,000 people came to his church Sunday
Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says 1,000 people came to his church Sunday
At a church service on March 15, Howard-Browne said he would not close his church's doors until the Rapture, when believers will be lifted up to heaven, according to evangelical theology.
At the same service, the pastor said he won't close his Bible School either, "because we are raising up revivalists, not pansies."
Howard-Browne defended his actions in a Facebook Live post titled "End of Days Part Three," according to CNN affiliate WFLA.
"I'm not again negating that people are dying from the coronavirus," he said. "We're not saying that, just saying that the thing is blown totally way out of proportion and if you shut the church down, the church is not a non-essential service."
Recklessness? Or religious freedom?
In a statement posted March 22 on its website, the church claims that closure orders violate religious freedom.
"The government deciding who can attend a service by way of a numerical limit does not demonstrate an equality of rights and ought to be seen as a per se violation of the principle of separation of church and state," says the statement, which was not written by Howard-Browne.
"These orders try to justify unequal application based upon the definition of 'essential' services. By what authority does the government declare the church non-essential?" it continues.
"The Church is a place where people turn for help and for comfort in a climate of fear and uncertainty. In a time of crisis, people are fearful and in need of comfort and community, more than ever before."
The great shutdown 2020: What churches, mosques and temples are doing to fight the spread of coronavirus 
The great shutdown 2020: What churches, mosques and temples are doing to fight the spread of coronavirus
But many legal scholars and religious believers dismiss the religious freedom argument, saying the widespread social distancing orders meet a compelling governmental interest: public safety.
"It's unfortunate here that the pastor is hiding behind the first amendment," State Attorney Andrew H. Warren said at Monday's news conference.
Emergency orders like the county's are "constitutionally valid," Warren said.
"I would remind the good pastor of Mark 12:31," Warren said, referring to the Bible. "There is no more important commandment than to love your neighbor as yourself. And loving your neighbors is protecting them and not jeopardizing their health by exposing them to this deadly virus."

 

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5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s been said for a while. Few come off of one alive. 

Guess time will tell. Our friend who was on one last week is 59 and came home from the hospital yesterday. Another good friend's mother is on one and it doesn't sound like she's going to make it. She's in her mid to late 70's, I think, and her kidneys and liver are failing.

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A medical fetish company in the U.K. has donated its entire stock of disposable scrubs to a hospital after being contacted by "desperate" health officials.

MedFetUK said it had been contacted by National Health Service (NHS) representatives from across the country who were trying to procure basic protective equipment and clothing for health workers tackling the coronavirus pandemic.

The company didn't identify the hospital where it sent the "few sets" of scrubs that it had, but said it was located in the south of England.

MedFetUK added it was "scandalous" that it was "being sought out as last-resort supplier" for the NHS during a crisis, adding that claims from politicians that health workers were getting what they needed to were not true.

 

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12 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I'm actually not a trained expert in epidemiology, therefore I have kept my mouth shut about policy for the most part and leave that to those who are. 

Radical concept for you to digest, apparently.

Ha, you’ve got me. I will abstain from having an opinion on SurlyBevo about the spread of the virus and let the experts here hash it out. By experts, I mean all of the other people that shriek and wail over the latest tweet, or those who judge them. 

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13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Ha, you’ve got me. I will abstain from having an opinion on SurlyBevo about the spread of the virus and let the experts here hash it out. By experts, I mean all of the other people that shriek and wail over the latest tweet, or those who judge them. 

With that attitude they are never going to let you post in Cloak Room.

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Silver Lining Committee, Interim Report, 31 March 2020

We're flattening both case and death curves by the smallest increments at this point. Stay the course you filthy bastards and wash your fucking hands. O/U 700k cases. Modelo got me feeling optimistic.  We keep it under 45k dead. *all estimates subject to revision with sobriety. 

Capture23.jpg
Capture24.jpg

 

Edited by Anastasis
uprevisions are a motherfucker.
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Cheers from Seattle,

I don't know how or where to look at graphs like that on a state level. At this point, I feel like it would be useful to be able to show the curves of the major international places and compare them to each state in the US as each state is on it's own curve, with unique exposure, length of time, testing access, stay at home measures in place, etc etc.... Have all states with X min cases on the graph along with S. Korea, Italy, China, Spain, UK, etc.

US total is an aggregate of so many locations at different points in their curve with different strategies, etc, to lump it all together is seems to be more like numbers porn than insightful data. We are just at the start of this thing from a national total level. I hope I'm wrong but this thing seems like it's going to balloon up in places as populations relax down the line.... I'm less interested in the US curve and much more interested in seeing what places are doing well here, with data, so that example can be copied or bettered. 

I've seen such graphs before either here or on twitter but my google fu is weak. Is that something I could filter into somewhere? Specifically at the moment i'm curious about the comparisons between WA, MI, NY, LosAng, LA, FL, and Italy, Spain, UK, China, S.Korea.

 

Another note, am I wrong in thinking it would be nice for people to talk about the huge lag time from 'exposed, then contagious' to 'confirmed case' to 'confirmed case with death'...... this can be weeks sometimes, how useful is that!? not very. So we are all looking at data for cases confirmed NOW but these people have been out and about potentially a week. Not even accounting for the people that don't get sick enough to get tested by hospital, or the asymptomatic who never even know......THEN we are reacting with policy to those super delayed numbers after they post. We have been so far behind the pace of this for many reasons but I feel that is one not talked about enough. It's not political to say confirmed case now equals exposure and risk a week ago minimum. It's just a fact of the data we are working with. When trying to reinforce the idea that we all need to treat this seriously, I think this is an under utilized point. On the flip side, the news reacting to total case numbers or deaths each day like it's a shock..... that just isn't the point, we have known it's going to be exponential increases and there is a very real lag time from implementation of social distancing to change in curve..... To be impersonal about this for a moment, a death statistic +1 today is an exposure probably 2 to 3 weeks ago..... Acknowledge that and use it to scare people into staying the fuck home. I don't think I've seen that delay mentioned in a while and it's pretty crucial to understand the underlying mechanism of what the numbers mean at a given point.... right?

 

rambling over. hope this makes sense partially at least. We have some great beer up here and I am indulging. deuces. 

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Also, Q2 the economic impact is really going to hit the fan. Execs at a large public company I work with are foregoing compensation for the rest of the year and cutting salaries 10% across the board. Another is weighing tens of thousands of layoffs. Hold on to your butts.

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2 hours ago, cam4mav said:

Cheers from Seattle,

I don't know how or where to look at graphs like that on a state level. At this point, I feel like it would be useful to be able to show the curves of the major international places and compare them to each state in the US as each state is on it's own curve, with unique exposure, length of time, testing access, stay at home measures in place, etc etc.... Have all states with X min cases on the graph along with S. Korea, Italy, China, Spain, UK, etc.

US total is an aggregate of so many locations at different points in their curve with different strategies, etc, to lump it all together is seems to be more like numbers porn than insightful data. We are just at the start of this thing from a national total level. I hope I'm wrong but this thing seems like it's going to balloon up in places as populations relax down the line.... I'm less interested in the US curve and much more interested in seeing what places are doing well here, with data, so that example can be copied or bettered. 

I've seen such graphs before either here or on twitter but my google fu is weak. Is that something I could filter into somewhere? Specifically at the moment i'm curious about the comparisons between WA, MI, NY, LosAng, LA, FL, and Italy, Spain, UK, China, S.Korea.

 

Another note, am I wrong in thinking it would be nice for people to talk about the huge lag time from 'exposed, then contagious' to 'confirmed case' to 'confirmed case with death'...... this can be weeks sometimes, how useful is that!? not very. So we are all looking at data for cases confirmed NOW but these people have been out and about potentially a week. Not even accounting for the people that don't get sick enough to get tested by hospital, or the asymptomatic who never even know......THEN we are reacting with policy to those super delayed numbers after they post. We have been so far behind the pace of this for many reasons but I feel that is one not talked about enough. It's not political to say confirmed case now equals exposure and risk a week ago minimum. It's just a fact of the data we are working with. When trying to reinforce the idea that we all need to treat this seriously, I think this is an under utilized point. On the flip side, the news reacting to total case numbers or deaths each day like it's a shock..... that just isn't the point, we have known it's going to be exponential increases and there is a very real lag time from implementation of social distancing to change in curve..... To be impersonal about this for a moment, a death statistic +1 today is an exposure probably 2 to 3 weeks ago..... Acknowledge that and use it to scare people into staying the fuck home. I don't think I've seen that delay mentioned in a while and it's pretty crucial to understand the underlying mechanism of what the numbers mean at a given point.... right?

 

rambling over. hope this makes sense partially at least. We have some great beer up here and I am indulging. deuces. 

Try this:

Go to this site:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Next click on "US" in the left most window

That will change the data to places in the USA and center the map on it as well.

Look for the window that is for Deaths and scroll down a tad to hit the "Snohomish, Washington, US" which will move the map over to the Washington state part of the map.

Then you can zoom in or out,using the + and - or your wheel, to then click on the little or not so little red dots and view the small amount of detail for each place.  

edit: King Washington is actually a bit higher on the list so you can click on that as well.

You will probably need to use the wheel of your mouse some to zoom in and might have to reclick the Washington state parts of the Death list to keep it recentering over it as you zoom in.  The more you play with it the easier it is to use.  Great tool for a shit situation.

Edited by zork
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The Philippines is up to 2084 cases and 88 deaths as they keep catching up on the testing backlog. But the overall testing is highly inadequate as 10s of thousands  are being monitored but have not been tested. I still know of only 4 known cases in local hospitals, pit there are dozens of suspected cases of varying severity. 

Someone with half a brain in the national government suggested allowing people to go back  to work but quarantine at the Barangay level. Barangays are subdivisions of cities that are further divided into neighborhoods and each has it's own government. Angeles City for example has 20 plus Barangays. While I normally think they are unnecessarily redundant and overly bureaucratic, it is not a bad way to set boundaries in this situation. 

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6 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The Philippines is up to 2084 cases and 88 deaths as they keep catching up on the testing backlog. But the overall testing is highly inadequate as 10s of thousands  are being monitored but have not been tested. I still know of only 4 known cases in local hospitals, pit there are dozens of suspected cases of varying severity. 

Someone with half a brain in the national government suggested allowing people to go back  to work but quarantine at the Barangay level. Barangays are subdivisions of cities that are further divided into neighborhoods and each has it's own government. Angeles City for example has 20 plus Barangays. While I normally think they are unnecessarily redundant and overly bureaucratic, it is not a bad way to set boundaries in this situation. 

Nice to see you haven’t been robbed and murdered yet. Any more incidents with would be burglars?

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6 hours ago, Modessit said:

Are we under-testing because we don't have the tests? Or are we not getting the results of testing because we haven't sufficiently set up the processing necessary to handle the workload? We could test 10000 a day but if we only process 700 a day then we'll only see 700 results per day and the backlog just gets bigger. We need more info on what is being done as far as tests administered and more info on who is processing and what their capabilities are. If we don't have the tests - then get them. If we don't have the processing capability, then we need to figure out how to increase it.

 

I’d say judging from Abbott’s words is yes to the first but it likely a combination of both of your questions. 

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Man, this really doesn't seem like it's going to end well for India. The way the quarantine was implemented and the delay in time along with the coincidence of religious festivals is going to spread the virus it like a wildfire. 

Meanwhile in Mexico.... 

That's during a period where the government is telling people to stay home.

Edited by GabrielsHorn
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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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