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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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19 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

The ranch retreat has become a family war. My wife's mother and father, both in their 80's stocked it up a few weeks ago but they are safely sheltering in place at home in San Antonio. Typhoon Mary, who has done zero prep (no TP, supplies, food, etc.) and next to zero social distancing just took her family to the ranch without giving two fucks about anybody else. So the actual people who own and pay for that place can't even go because they don't want to get anywhere near her unhygienic ass. And that gravy trainer is running through their supplies. You think I'd like to take my wife, kids and dog out there to go run around and fish and get out dodge? Sure, but we aren't selfish cunts.

ugh.  the only upside is that had you gone first and she packs up the gravy train and heads out there, you would have had a potential OK Corral situation.

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8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh man, the tears that I am shedding.  They are real.  The tears.  That I am shedding.

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7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You mean all those countries that actually did national lock downs? Where are the examples of countries that didn't do that and had large regions that rebelled against even moderate mitigation measures? 

You do realize that Italy didn’t immediately issue a national lockdown and they have tremendous pressure from the south about it, right?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1262824/Coronavirus-horror-violence-Italy-COVID-19-unrest-chaos-shortages-news
 

Im not going to defend our current policies, but Italy isn’t some shining example that far exceeds what we’ve done. 

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8 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

You really think that Italy and Spain don’t matter. We are using an exponential growth system based on measured data that has proven it out. Further, you really don’t think Spain and Italy don’t have an overstresssed system at this point? Are you just purposely avoiding  the news from there where they are picking who to give treatment to and using ice rinks as temporary morgues?

This isn’t some math problem and these models are built upon it not just being an exponential curve that any moron can put together. Why would we not use proven data to calibrate a model? 

LMAO.  OK.  Yeah, I'll assume our numbers will mirror those of two smaller countries that took different approaches to the virus.  That makes a ton of sense, way more sense than assuming the United States will continue to behave like . . . the United States.

I've already acknowledged that extrapolation is dicey.  THAT is the reason to doubt my numbers, not some half-assed expected correlation to a couple of countries across the Atlantic Ocean.

Oh, and one more thing:  every day that goes by without seeing your magic dip in the growth rate makes your expectation all that more difficult to hit.

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2 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

You do realize that Italy didn’t immediately issue a national lockdown and they have tremendous pressure from the south about it, right?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1262824/Coronavirus-horror-violence-Italy-COVID-19-unrest-chaos-shortages-news
 

Im not going to defend our current policies, but Italy isn’t some shining example that far exceeds what we’ve done. 

To a large extent, people are going to do what they're going to do regardless of what the government says.  That will certainly vary place to place based on cultural factors.

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

We'll hit that # before the 15th.

 

 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Friendly reminder that we're seeing the US death toll climb at a rate of 27% per day.  In 11 days, that's a factor of 13.86X above the current total of approximately 3,900 cases, or approximately 54K deaths.

11 days.

Sure, extrapolation is dicey.  Anyone want to posit some reason why that rate is going to drop much in 11 days?

 

 

27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So, let's do the math.  In order for the US death toll to reach 50K people by April 15th, it will have to climb by 18.2% per day above today's # of 4,053 American deaths:

1.1824 ^ 15 = 12.34

12.34 X 4053 = 50,014

 

Here are the rolling per-day multiples of American deaths, using the last "N" days:

1 day:  1.290

2 days:  1.253

3 days:  1.222

4 days:  1.244

5 days:  1.256

6 days:  1.257

7 days:  1.265

 

So even going back and fitting an exponential curve to the last "N" days where "N" ranges from 1 to 7, we never see the growth rate drop below 1.222 deaths per day.  A growth rate going forward of 1.182 deaths per day will put the United States at 50,000 deaths by April 15th.

Color me skeptical we'll miss that horrible result by a big margin (say, less than 25K deaths), ESPECIALLY given the fact that it takes roughly 2-3 weeks from infection for victims to die.  If you're infected now, and your lot is cast because of whatever preexisting conditions you might have that correlate with high risk, then you're quite possibly fucked by April 15th.

Sorry to be so glum, but I think people are being far too optimistic about how this will play out.  Yes, shelter-in-place should have a positive effect, and even social distancing to some degree, but in the near term, I'm not sure there is much that's going to happen to slow down this runaway train.  As everyone knows, the hope is that we don't overrun the hospitals, which is already starting to happen.

 

 

So we can mark you down for what number, 25,000 or 50,000 by April 15th? 

Straight line extrapolation is fucking dumb, and it has been all along. The people dying this week were all headed here before things got locked down. Three weeks ago today, Tom Hanks announced he had it, the NBA basically canceled its season, and the wave of industries, states, cities, and other elements of the economy and society were already starting to shut down in domino fashion. Schools ended the following two days, etc. 

Your numbers presume that none of that shit matters. So yeah, I'll take the counter to your position and the others continuing to call for big death numbers without acknowledging the changes. And guess what? If straightline extrapolation proves itself as correct after all of this, then what the fuck are we doing sheltering in place in the first place? If none of the changes matter, why have them? So either you think they'll have a major impact and your presentation here is absurd, or you don't think they matter at all, and staying inside and doing jack shit and watching the economy collapse is absurd.

We need to average 1400 dead people a day to hit your 4/15 target of 25,000 and 3067 deaths per day to hit your high score of 50,000. Understanding the growth nature in this versus a straight average, what you're really presuming is, at the low end, a number around 2900 on 4/15 and a high end number of 7800. Right.

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

10 days ago (March 22), the US had a total of 471 deaths. We'll have over 5,000 by the end of the day. If today just matches yesterday (~900), we'll have averaged over 420 deaths a day since March 22. I think you can take pretty much any 10-day period and find similar results. My point: those numbers aren't as absurd as you appear to think. 

 

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I was assured by others in this thread that we could not compare the US to Italy. 

Are you still targeting 10,000 deaths per day by April 10th?  How's that working out? Oh, let's move the goalposts.

The entire point about the stupidity of "we're Italy, only 2 weeks ago!" is that we're on our own trajectory. We've been as infected or more so than Italy from before their numbers started rolling in. And their death rate, even while deaths are being underreported, is wildly off the mark from what we have seen, are seeing, and will see. They're 5x our number and have been between 5 and 8x our number since all of that shit was being shrieked starting in mid-March. If that shit was right, per capita, when it was being screamed two weeks ago, we'd be seeing 2850 deaths today. Let me know when that number clears.

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1 minute ago, GabrielsHorn said:

You do realize that Italy didn’t immediately issue a national lockdown and they have tremendous pressure from the south about it, right?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1262824/Coronavirus-horror-violence-Italy-COVID-19-unrest-chaos-shortages-news
 

Im not going to defend our current policies, but Italy isn’t some shining example that far exceeds what we’ve done. 

I'm not holding up Italy as an example of what to do (that would be South Korea). I'm saying that even Italy has done more than us. A lot more. They quarantined the hardest hit region on February 24th. They instituted a national lock down on March 9. Spain, similarly, started a national lock down on March 15th. 

Since we haven't done anything like the above, and in fact have large areas (hi Florida) rebelling against even moderate mitigation measures, I don't see why we shouldn't expect to have worse results. Let's face our reality for what it is and not what wish it would be. 

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11 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am looking at stabilization and decline starting much sooner than 30 days from now for NYC and NY State.  

The model posted upthread shows that New York should peak around the 9th of April.  I am hoping it comes a bit sooner than that.  

Cuomo said it again today, need widespread home based antibody testing.  The not knowing is really a lot of the issue here.  I would be happy to run next door to my Duane Reade, pick up an antibody test kit, and bam.  Hell, I am happy to fucking pay for it myself.  

There needs to be SERIOUS pressure to get these antibody tests readily available, easy to use, etc.. and out to market lickety split.

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AISD sent out termination emails to employees that are less than 50% of full time last night. Hourly positions such as custodians and teacher assistants are only being paid for the hours they can document that they worked. The district is looking at other staff that can be deemed “non-essential” for layoffs. 

The email from TEA that went out a couple of weeks ago said not to worry about funding. Now the district says they are getting hurt on funding. I don’t know what the real story is but the shit storm seems to be heading our way. I will say that contract employees (teachers) seem to be safe for the moment.

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Just now, closetojumping said:

So we can mark you down for what number, 25,000 or 50,000 by April 15th? Straight line extrapolation is fucking dumb, and it has been all along.

"Straight line extrapolation" is a dumb thing to say when we are in an exponential growth phase.  Yes, I get it -- you're talking about extrapolation forward based on previous trends.  Using the phrase "straight line" and acting like a cocksucker about it is really rich.

 

Quote

The people dying this week were all headed here before things got locked down. Three weeks ago today, Tom Hanks announced he had it, the NBA basically canceled its season, and the wave of industries, states, cities, and other elements of the economy and society were already starting to shut down in domino fashion. Schools ended the following two days, etc. 

Your numbers presume that none of that shit matters.

No, they don't.  What YOUR numbers don't include are stressed healthcare systems.  So, dehorse from that high mount and stop lecturing people who are actually capable of understanding what's going on and are doing their level best to assess those competing factors.  At the end of the day, we don't know how prior (and accumulating) social changes trade off with rapidly deteriorating healthcare issues, and so it makes just as much sense to assume past trends continue . . . until we acquire more information to the contrary.

But by all means, continue with your bad self on this thread, it's not as if your reputation hasn't preceded you for weeks now.  Hail to the chief.

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20 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sure I can.  I hope you're right, but at the moment, that's all it is -- hope.  You're expecting a numerical correlation to different countries & cultures within days that has shown no real signs of happening.

 

Well, I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous.  I don't care about the morons.  They're unreachable.  They're gonna do what they're gonna do.  Telling them things are not all that bad when we have no information that suggests this is the case is just as likely to make things worse as it is to make them better.

Furthermore, past data fail to account for stressed healthcare facilities, which implies that the numbers are going to get WORSE, and soon.

Nope, I'll deal in the data as they are presented.  You're more than welcome to hope that the mortality growth rate suddenly declines just because it did in other countries (with their attendant sketchy reporting).  I'll just look at the curves, thank you very much.

I am excited by the head on collision coming for the faction here that looks at the raw numbers on a spreadsheet and makes broad, sweeping statements about their certitude that "this is the math and we're all fucked" with, well, me and a few others who continue to take the position that removing vast numbers of variables from the hypothetical equation will make all of the massive death predictions look as stupid as ever. It isn't a case of the deaths not potentially occurring in mass numbers. That's agreed upon. It's the position of one side of this that the real world is irrelevant against the power of the raw calculations. 

It should be fun. 

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3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Are you still targeting 10,000 deaths per day by April 10th?  How's that working out? Oh, let's move the goalposts.

The entire point about the stupidity of "we're Italy, only 2 weeks ago!" is that we're on our own trajectory. We've been as infected or more so than Italy from before their numbers started rolling in. And their death rate, even while deaths are being underreported, is wildly off the mark from what we have seen, are seeing, and will see. They're 5x our number and have been between 5 and 8x our number since all of that shit was being shrieked starting in mid-March. If that shit was right, per capita, when it was being screamed two weeks ago, we'd be seeing 2850 deaths today. Let me know when that number clears.

Not great as we are right on target for that. We really need to see a dip in the death curve this week. The rest of your post is unintelligible ranting. 

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16 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Mexico is going to be an interesting one to watch. 

Zero shut down, and a lot of national government denial to start. 

I won't say anymore as it goes CR if I do.

Not necessarily true. They are piecemealing their quarantines as Chihuahua has been under a stay at home for a bit after El Paso and New Mexico went. 
 

Near Mexico City though, it’s a shitshow. One of the governors claiming poor people can’t get it and AMLO going to meet El Chapo’s mom while his government is trying to emphasize quarantines sums up current Mexican politics really well. 

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10 minutes ago, WBT said:

To a large extent, people are going to do what they're going to do regardless of what the government says.  That will certainly vary place to place based on cultural factors.

Are you saying the Germans are more willing to carry out their government’s orders without question than other nations?

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26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I hate Illinois Pentecostals...

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26 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

We all do.

I think of all the human traits that chap my ass more than any others is selfishness.  Not people who don't donate to charity as much as they could/should, or who don't volunteer as much as is needed.  But people who think their needs supersede those of all others, and whose actions negatively impact others yet they have little to no regard or reservation about doing it.  Those people grind my gears to no end.

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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I am excited by the head on collision coming for the faction here that looks at the raw numbers on a spreadsheet and makes broad, sweeping statements about their certitude that "this is the math and we're all fucked"

That would be interesting if that were what was going on.

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6 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

AISD sent out termination emails to employees that are less than 50% of full time last night. Hourly positions such as custodians and teacher assistants are only being paid for the hours they can document that they worked. The district is looking at other staff that can be deemed “non-essential” for layoffs. 

The email from TEA that went out a couple of weeks ago said not to worry about funding. Now the district says they are getting hurt on funding. I don’t know what the real story is but the shit storm seems to be heading our way. I will say that contract employees (teachers) seem to be safe for the moment.

I find this confusing.  I'd assumed schools are funded "per year" and not on a weekly or monthly basis?  Is that not true?

 

 

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58 minutes ago, huge said:

Did I mention I live in the crime-free Montrose?

Montrose, the place where I saw two dudes with beards french kissing on a street corner when I was a kid back when my older sister gave me a tour of Houston.

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11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm not holding up Italy as an example of what to do (that would be South Korea). I'm saying that even Italy has done more than us. A lot more. They quarantined the hardest hit region on February 24th. They instituted a national lock down on March 9. Spain, similarly, started a national lock down on March 15th. 

Since we haven't done anything like the above, and in fact have large areas (hi Florida) rebelling against even moderate mitigation measures, I don't see why we shouldn't expect to have worse results. Let's face our reality for what it is and not what wish it would be. 

we should have quarantined NY/NJ a month ago but in hindsight the governor never would have allowed it.

biggest mistake was not locking down all incoming traffic(sans supplies and US citizens) to US on late Jan after we confirmed person to person transfer.  that was the easiest thing to do.

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6 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I think of all the human traits that chap my ass more than any others is selfishness.  Not people who don't donate to charity as much as they could/should, or who don't volunteer as much as is needed.  But people who think their needs supersede those of all others, and whose actions negatively impact others yet they have little to no regard or reservation about doing it.  Those people grind my gears to no end.

never, ever, ever, ever get a job working with the public.  You will lose your fucking mind by noon on the first day.

 

I don't disagree with your sentiment, but wholly fuck, they're out there, even in these days and times.

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3 minutes ago, F250 said:

Montrose, the place where I saw two dudes with beards french kissing on a street corner when I was a kid back when my older sister gave me a tour of Houston.

so Michael Berry and whom?

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Straight line extrapolation" is a dumb thing to say when we are in an exponential growth phase.  Yes, I get it -- you're talking about extrapolation forward based on previous trends.  Using the phrase "straight line" and acting like a cocksucker about it is really rich.

 

No, they don't.  What YOUR numbers don't include are stressed healthcare systems.  So, dehorse from that high mount and stop lecturing people who are actually capable of understanding what's going on and are doing their level best to assess those competing factors.  At the end of the day, we don't know how prior (and accumulating) social changes trade off with rapidly deteriorating healthcare issues, and so it makes just as much sense to assume past trends continue . . . until we acquire more information to the contrary.

But by all means, continue with your bad self on this thread, it's not as if your reputation hasn't preceded you for weeks now.  Hail to the chief.

Your belief structure, evidenced in everything you've ever written, is founded on the principle of asymmetric insight. You know more about others than they know about themselves, and no one could possibly know as much about you, as you. This post is no different. 

No, I factored in healthcare systems getting overrun. I'm also factoring in that it's not going to happen everywhere, and not even close. It flat out didn't happen in Seattle, and you guys were touting that as a fucking given.

Whatever it is making you presume you have a right to discuss this with some higher knowledge than the rest of us is a weakness spawning from the echo chamber hole you crawled out of in the CR. "Oh no, you are really smart and we're all really stupid, so shut up and let the smart people play with numbers!" Right.

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13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Straight line extrapolation" is a dumb thing to say when we are in an exponential growth phase.  Yes, I get it -- you're talking about extrapolation forward based on previous trends.  Using the phrase "straight line" and acting like a cocksucker about it is really rich.

 

No, they don't.  What YOUR numbers don't include are stressed healthcare systems.  So, dehorse from that high mount and stop lecturing people who are actually capable of understanding what's going on and are doing their level best to assess those competing factors.  At the end of the day, we don't know how prior (and accumulating) social changes trade off with rapidly deteriorating healthcare issues, and so it makes just as much sense to assume past trends continue . . . until we acquire more information to the contrary.

But by all means, continue with your bad self on this thread, it's not as if your reputation hasn't preceded you for weeks now.  Hail to the chief.

No offense, but you kinda don't sound like you really know what you're talking about.

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More on the stupid damned churches demanding the right to hold mass infection events.  A good quote from the LA Times (quoting James Martin, SJ, a sharp dude) that's dead-on:

Quote

“I’m stunned by church leaders who reject the most basic advice from public health officials during a pandemic,” he said in an interview. “It’s just plain old stupidity, of the type that puts people’s lives in danger. As such, it’s anti-life. The next time any of these groups calls themselves pro-life, we need to remind ourselves about these death-dealing decisions.”

 

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2 hours ago, Hanrahan said:

You know many find it a serious breach of etiquette to challenge the established fact that hundreds of thousands will be dead in the streets by summer, right?  Fucking climate change denier.

But will there be bodies in the trees?

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Your belief structure, evidenced in everything you've ever written, is founded on the principle of asymmetric insight. You know more about others than they know about themselves, and no one could possibly know as much about you, as you. This post is no different. 

No, I factored in healthcare systems getting overrun. I'm also factoring in that it's not going to happen everywhere, and not even close. It flat out didn't happen in Seattle, and you guys were touting that as a fucking given.

Whatever it is making you presume you have a right to discuss this with some higher knowledge than the rest of us is a weakness spawning from the echo chamber hole you crawled out of in the CR. "Oh no, you are really smart and we're all really stupid, so shut up and let the smart people play with numbers!" Right.

Holy shit, self-awareness is clearly not your strong suit.

What exactly is it that makes you presume you have a "right" to discuss this with some higher knowledge than me?  Careful, now.

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12 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

We are on pace for almost 2000 deaths today and over 50000 new cases

This post is more absurd than usual. The worldometers data shows up throughout the day as a feed, but many states report what they report for a given day and it is done. That's happened for a bunch of them as of now. 

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That would be interesting if that were what was going on.

You trust your curves and math, sir. We get it. Don't move the goalposts yet. 

Also, you never answered. Are you sticking with your 50,000 declaration for April 15? Or are you quickly going to hang with the ratchet down of 25,000?

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3 minutes ago, Bevo VIII said:

Just look at the trend line of infections in basically every country besides China and you see similar exponential growth.

In addition to being the origin of the virus, they silenced the first whistle blowers who try to alert the world, then lied about the progression of infections throughout their own population all while allowing them to continue traveling internationally. They deserve a huge amount of blame for everything unfolding around the world the right now.

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

More on the stupid damned churches demanding the right to hold mass infection events.  A good quote from the LA Times (quoting James Martin, SJ, a sharp dude) that's dead-on:

 

I don't get it.  I mean I do, but I don't.  

Wife and I watched podcast of our old church in The Woodlands the past 2 weeks. Message was great.  praise and worship was great. We still tithe.

Yeah we miss some of the fellowship, but the safety and wellbeing of the congregation is worth protecting, if nothing else.

Sad that folks think they have to meet in THAT building... to be a church.

Edited by Iceman
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1 minute ago, Auto Driller said:

Just look at the trend line of infections in basically every country besides China and you see similar exponential growth.

In addition to being the origin of the virus, they silenced the first whistle blowers who try to alert the world, then lied about the progression of infections throughout their own population all while allowing them to continue traveling internationally. They deserve a huge amount of blame for everything unfolding around the world the right now.

giphy.gif

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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