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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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6 minutes ago, mchookem said:

yeah what is that hot spot up there?there's like, no people up there 😐...it's not Amarillo...is everyone in Dalhart dead??

It's deaths per 10,000 population

100 deaths in a county of 1M is 1/10,000

1 death in a county of 100 is 100/10,000

theres the skew

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I have a close friend who was just confirmed positive for CV19 and he was given a treatment of zpack/hydrochloroquine. I hope this works for him, he's only 39.

When the cases started popping off in Texas, he was at Stone Oak Methodist being treated for a rare case Guillain-Barre. Since his release from the hospital he went to Costco on 281/1604 and HEB in Schertz.

I was just at that fucking Costco a few days ago........fuck me NowThis style.

Let us know what happens with your friend..was he struggling big time and he needed the treatment or was he fine and they still gave it to him ?

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I'm sure they are. West Texas and that area is a large unknown to me. My dad was born in Amarillo and all I know is it is somewhere between Dallas and Denver. I should probably rectify that. I did get to drive through El Paso on my way to California two years ago. Beautiful city.

Surly, you can't be talking about El Paso and California is a state so maybe you passed through Marfa or Cloudcroft.

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Okay then, a Covid-19 official said that states were not eligible to receive resources from the federal stockpile because that stockpile is only for the federal government.  Federal preemption does not actually apply here (neither implied nor express).  So how are ventilators and the like currently in federal custody going to make it to the states if the prevailing notion in Washington is that the states have to create and maintain their own stockpiles?  It's a serious question about serious assets getting to people who are seriously ill.  Is that okay?  Or point me to the logistics thread and I'll gladly ask there.  This is a serious supply chain issue that needs to be addressed. 

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7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What you fail to acknowledge is that there is a contingent, here and out in the real world, who consistently downplay the risk to public health that this virus had (and still has) the potential to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans due to the simple fact that humans have no immunity to it. Whatever their motivations, and I don't pretend to understand them, we still have folks who stubbornly refuse to take the advice of healthcare professionals and threaten to put the rest of America at risk by doing stupid shit like disobeying directives and inviting thousands back into close quarters at megachurches and that cult college in Virginia.

As far as predictions, I quite frankly refuse to even hazard a guess the eventual total as it all depends on our collective will to take action and do what is necessary. A simple mathematical model suggesting an exponential increase in cases and resultant deaths is simply a baseline to work from. But, at this point, there are way too many variables to come up with a reasonable figure due to all the variable associated with the uncoordinated responses in this nation. One can reasonably assume, however, that we're likely going to be playing a game of whack-a-mole across the country with this virus until a vaccine is eventually developed, and it is the fucking naysayers who are going to prolong this shit. 

Don't enable those magical thinking idiots.

Not only do I acknowledge that those idiots exist, I referenced them. They're not on this site, or at least in this thread, in any material amount, but we get one doing a drive-by every now and then. I see the real world news stories too, and yeah, they're out there. That is the exception and not the rule.

There should be no issue with someone asking a friend or family member "is this all going to be worth it?" What is happening is unprecedented and not everyone is reading Surly, or every news article published, or getting all of their "facts" from FB, Twitter, MSNBC, CNN or Fox. There's a lot of innocence on this that people here are pretty much intolerant of, and so be it. Nonetheless, we're talking more and more about corner cases of stupid ass parties, open beaches, crowded sermons, etc. Then you're left with anecdotes and bitching about grocery store spread. 

The rest of what you wrote is what I've been writing, almost to a T. Too many variables have actually been removed for anyone to accurately offer up a projection other than "it's not going to be nearly as bad as the original projections". Of course it is because of mitigation and what not. 

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5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Okay then, a Covid-19 official said that states were not eligible to receive resources from the federal stockpile because that stockpile is only for the federal government.  Federal preemption does not actually apply here (neither implied nor express).  So how are ventilators and the like currently in federal custody going to make it to the states if the prevailing notion in Washington is that the states have to create and maintain their own stockpiles?  It's a serious question about serious assets getting to people who are seriously ill.  Is that okay?  Or point me to the logistics thread and I'll gladly ask there.  This is a serious supply chain issue that needs to be addressed. 

The way I understood it, and I have done little research into this other than watching the task force conferences, is that the government will evaluate a hospital's true need (because many are asking for ventilators they dont need in anticipation of a surge) and the state's current stockpile, and if the hospital needs it and the state is unable to provide, the federal government will step in with their stockpile to fix the issue. 

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39 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Can I get this simply answered from someone who knows (I can't seem to find it in reporting/articles/google):

For those of us who are not qualified for the $1200 or whatever the free money is for Covid-19 because we make more than $198k combined or $99k individually, do we still qualify for the $500 per/child free money or is that only if you don't make enough money?

Another way to phrase the question: Is the $500/child of free money independent or dependent on the qualification of the free money based on income?

You can read the law here:  https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819239/FINAL-FINAL-CARES-ACT.pdf

See Sec 2201 starting on page 144.  The money is a tax credit for tax year 2020, but they are giving checks to taxpayers now.  It looks to me like the $500 per kid is lumped in with the $1200 (or $2400 for married folks) to figure the amount of your credit.  It starts to phase out at $75,000 AGI for an individual, $112,500 for a head of household, and $150,000 for a joint return.

I think they are going to guess the amount of your credit due based on a previous year's tax return when they send you a check, but ultimately you will see some math on your 2020 taxes to figure out what the actual credit should have been.

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27 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Only two things we have going for us in terms of college football is that September is still hot as hell in most of the country.  And UT athletics is already looking into playing the games with no fans, just TV crews and officials.  

I don’t think 125 college football players standing together on the sideline with a couple dozen coaches, trainers, managers, and officials is going to happen by Sept either. 

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45 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

From the calculators I’ve seen the child credit is income based too. You’re not likely to get anything.

Well fuck me. Closed down daycare still charging tuition and have to hire a babysitter during the day now through June. 

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2 hours ago, BrickTop said:


My apologies no intention at all to cause panic, to me at least the study indicates an elevated risk from before, but to what extent? I do agree with you that aspect is unknown, to me as a healthcare provider it doesn’t make a difference however it does seem to have raises some alarm bells at least within our organization regarding the ease of transmission. I’m not afraid of it, I’ve been exposed and I’ve seen it, my only true fear is bringing it home to my 75 year old mother who lives with us as she has pretty much all of the risk factors. Our department has been fairly lax so far on this regarding preventative measures, if they’re suggesting masks while in public it’s not an overreaction , I have to think the concern of increased risk is coming from a credible source.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

You probably don’t want to decon your bunker gear after every call and be on air for the duration of all calls, but could you?

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7 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

You can read the law here:  https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819239/FINAL-FINAL-CARES-ACT.pdf

See Sec 2201 starting on page 144.  The money is a tax credit for tax year 2020, but they are giving checks to taxpayers now.  It looks to me like the $500 per kid is lumped in with the $1200 (or $2400 for married folks) to figure the amount of your credit.  It starts to phase out at $75,000 AGI for an individual, $112,500 for a head of household, and $150,000 for a joint return.

I think they are going to guess the amount of your credit due based on a previous year's tax return when they send you a check, but ultimately you will see some math on your 2020 taxes to figure out what the actual credit should have been.

Thanks for this. It's really helpful. 

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49 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What you fail to acknowledge is that there is a contingent, here and out in the real world, who consistently downplay the risk to public health that this virus had (and still has) the potential to kill hundreds of thousands of Americans due to the simple fact that humans have no immunity to it. Whatever their motivations, and I don't pretend to understand them, we still have folks who stubbornly refuse to take the advice of healthcare professionals and threaten to put the rest of America at risk by doing stupid shit like disobeying directives and inviting thousands back into close quarters at megachurches and that cult college in Virginia.

As far as predictions, I quite frankly refuse to even hazard a guess the eventual total as it all depends on our collective will to take action and do what is necessary. A simple mathematical model suggesting an exponential increase in cases and resultant deaths is simply a baseline to work from. But, at this point, there are way too many variables to come up with a reasonable figure due to all the variable associated with the uncoordinated responses in this nation. One can reasonably assume, however, that we're likely going to be playing a game of whack-a-mole across the country with this virus until a vaccine is eventually developed, and it is the fucking naysayers who are going to prolong this shit. 

Don't enable those magical thinking idiots.

How do you know the response is uncoordinated?  

Yes stupid people are going to stupid. being careful and using common sense goes a long way and many aren't. Edit: Get used to living in a free society with idiots

Hopefully the next time this happens we shut down incoming air and border traffic right away and people don't scream bullshit about it.

Also, hopefully the states are better prepared on their own because that is part of the deal we have in this country. (Narrator: most of them are very poorly run and insolvent.)

To your point, the variables are exactly the reason the simple mathematical models were worthless.   The spanish flu in 1918 killed estimated 675,000 and yes the population is 3 times as large but our medical community/systems is infinitely better 100 years later. I'm also going to bet on the smart guys in the USA as a group over any country on earth. And yes, there will be some fuckups along the way in a situation like this.

Yes, we had to prevent the rush on the state medical communities, due to this hitting older people much worse than younger, so some heavy measures were needed.  We also needed to makes sure 320M+ didn't panic all at once, supply chains(medical and public) get solidified as best possible, etc.

Hopefully after this is over feds/states actually do something to prepare for a pandemic after decades of not preparing.

Edited by dcar00
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30 minutes ago, Hate said:

So I guess we are all going to wear masks in public going forward which is just fine with me. Where are we supposed to get the masks?

Look up gaiters at academy or bass pro. 
 

don’t have time to find it but there was a video of how to make mask out of bandanas and hair ties. I am going to do both until I can get some real ones. 

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41 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

nice to see the bump lower on deaths yesterday.  don't expect to hold at all but maybe a small sign of good.

Big part of that came from New York (although New Jersey had a jump). We may start seeing a slowing in NY deaths, which may keep our growth rate down or flat, at least until the rest of the states start to overtake NY. 

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39 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Only two things we have going for us in terms of college football is that September is still hot as hell in most of the country.  And UT athletics is already looking into playing the games with no fans, just TV crews and officials.  

Well, that's one possible way to get Herman out.

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1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

Thanks for posting.  This is interesting/disturbing and makes me wonder how useful the Tues/Fri Dallas hospitalization info is that I've been tracking.   How many cases are there that the Dr's know damn well are Covid but don't have a confirmed test?  I had assumed those hospitalized with symptoms were getting priority with testing and fast tracked results but if this is accurate, that does not appear to be the case in Houston at least.

"The 25-county region surrounding Houston had reported fewer than 950 confirmed coronavirus cases among its 9.3 million residents as of Monday. But on that same day, there were 996 people hospitalized in the region with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19, according to the advisory council count. That figure is not cumulative and does not include patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized and released before Monday."

 

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5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Big part of that came from New York (although New Jersey had a jump). We may start seeing a slowing in NY deaths, which may keep our growth rate down or flat, at least until the rest of the states start to overtake NY. 

a few of the states may(looking at you Florida/Mich/Louisiana) but I'm thinking most of the rest don't.

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You probably don’t want to decon your bunker gear after every call and be on air for the duration of all calls, but could you?

They are sterilizing them, the beginning of each shift with some kind of a new digger and we all have second sets of gear, gross decon with a hand line could happen but the only real way to decon the gear would be washing it in an extractor and drying it, which is fairly time consuming, the SCBA would be pretty simple to sterilize with the exception of the regulator, the only other issue would be filling the bottles as we have only have a cascade at 1 station and that would increase the risk of exposing that crew as well
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2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


So far not today, NY reported 462 deaths this AM

Hmm... maybe we just saw data from yesterday get pushed to today. That is unfortunate. Case increases are slowing though, so at some point soon we should seen deaths decline in NY as well. 

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Looking at the latest infection rates by state today (it's through yesterday's released data by each state), a few things are interesting and/or scary.

Michigan's positive rate of those tested continues to climb. They're at 48% of all people tested are positive. As of yesterday's data, they were at 44%. They're screaming upward. 

New Jersey isn't great, but less aggressive growth, going from 42% yesterday to almost 43.3% today. 

New York is better. They were around 38.5% yesterday and they're at 38.6% today. 

Places like Texas are creeping up, but not rocketing and still below 10%. Texas was at 7.5% 8 days ago. They're at 9.2% today. 

Washington's percentage continues to go down, which is great. 

I'll admit, I can't make an argument that any of this is a great indicator, simply because availability of testing isn't uniform and there's absolutely a bias towards self-selection. That said,  I'd rather see states tracking lower and lower in the ratio, rather than higher and higher. NY stabilizing a bit and Washington heading down are both signs that there is some sort of curve reflecting mitigation impact playing into these numbers too. 

I guess we'll know more if Michigan truly lights itself on fire here, because it's not a small sample. They're at 48% with almost 23,000 tests being run. If they become a huge story on the death toll end, I won't be shocked. They've kind of been "holding steady" this week with 70-80-ish deaths accounted for each day. My guess is that will start to shift upward significantly.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

a few of the states may(looking at you Florida/Mich/Louisiana) but I'm thinking most of the rest don't.

I didn't mean individually, I don't really expect that (except maybe Florida). I meant collectively. 

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Only two things we have going for us in terms of college football is that September is still hot as hell in most of the country.  And UT athletics is already looking into playing the games with no fans, just TV crews and officials.  

I'm sure they're looking into lots of things. Doesn't change reality.
I don’t think 125 college football players standing together on the sideline with a couple dozen coaches, trainers, managers, and officials is going to happen by Sept either. 
This. They're not going to take on the risk. You'd have to be able to test the whole operation, on demand with quick turnaround results, every game day at least. To say nothing about the risk in practice and what have you.
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49 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Only two things we have going for us in terms of college football is that September is still hot as hell in most of the country.  And UT athletics is already looking into playing the games with no fans, just TV crews and officials.  

Social distancing will finally justify Mike Leach’s 6 foot splits between offensive linemen. 

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19 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

You can read the law here:  https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6819239/FINAL-FINAL-CARES-ACT.pdf

See Sec 2201 starting on page 144.  The money is a tax credit for tax year 2020, but they are giving checks to taxpayers now.  It looks to me like the $500 per kid is lumped in with the $1200 (or $2400 for married folks) to figure the amount of your credit.  It starts to phase out at $75,000 AGI for an individual, $112,500 for a head of household, and $150,000 for a joint return.

I think they are going to guess the amount of your credit due based on a previous year's tax return when they send you a check, but ultimately you will see some math on your 2020 taxes to figure out what the actual credit should have been.

This was moving quickly and some of it was in flux, so it might have changed.  But here's what I understood as of yesterday - If you filled out a tax return for 2019 already, that's what they'll use for income.  If not, 2018 tax return income.  Whichever return they use, whatever that return says about how to get a refund will be how and where it will go.  So if you listed a bank account for direct deposit on the 1040 they use, that bank account will receive the funds.  If you paid taxes, asked for your refund as a check, or otherwise didn't list a bank account, you will get a check in the mail somewhat later.  If you didn't file either year for some reason, you may have to file an information return and you might not get money until September or so.

Calculator here if you missed it - https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/27/politics/stimulus-check-calculator/index.html

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50 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Only two things we have going for us in terms of college football is that September is still hot as hell in most of the country.  And UT athletics is already looking into playing the games with no fans, just TV crews and officials.  

this must be why we kept shaka smart.

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10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

How do you know the response is uncoordinated?  

I read the news.

Quote

Hopefully after this is over feds/states actually do something to prepare for a pandemic after decades of not preparing.

There have been plans for decades. Actually, implementing those plans is another matter and leads to a political discussion, which I'd prefer to refrain from in this thread. You're welcome to assert that stance and pose the quoted question elsewhere.

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Anyone been Zoom bombed ?

Quote

Like many people these days, Johnson is doing a lot of things over the Internet that he would normally do in person. Last week, he defended his doctoral dissertation in a Zoom videoconference.

He had a big audience — he estimated it was about 40 people, including "my closest friends, family and my classmates and my dissertation committee" at California State University, Long Beach, he said

Johnson  is the first member of his family to graduate from college, let alone get a doctorate. He wanted to share the moment with them.

 

He said he was in the middle of presenting when someone started drawing male genitalia on the screen. At first, Johnson said, he was not sure what was happening.

"I'm like, 'Whoa!' And then I freeze, and everyone who's watching the screen freezes," he said.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/03/826129520/a-must-for-millions-zoom-has-a-dark-side-and-an-fbi-warning
 

 

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10 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Thanks for posting.  This is interesting/disturbing and makes me wonder how useful the Tues/Fri Dallas hospitalization info is that I've been tracking.   How many cases are there that the Dr's know damn well are Covid but don't have a confirmed test?  I had assumed those hospitalized with symptoms were getting priority with testing and fast tracked results but if this is accurate, that does not appear to be the case in Houston at least.

"The 25-county region surrounding Houston had reported fewer than 950 confirmed coronavirus cases among its 9.3 million residents as of Monday. But on that same day, there were 996 people hospitalized in the region with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19, according to the advisory council count. That figure is not cumulative and does not include patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized and released before Monday."

 

I have a family member that works at a hospital. They "essentially" have 40 cases, but only 20 of those are confirmed. Not in Houston, but similar scenario. 

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5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Hmm... maybe we just saw data from yesterday get pushed to today. That is unfortunate. Case increases are slowing though, so at some point soon we should seen deaths decline in NY as well. 

its going to go up more than likely but if we get about 4 days in a row of flat to only slightly up that would be nice.

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3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I read the news.

There have been plans for decades. Actually, implementing those plans is another matter and leads to a political discussion, which I'd prefer to refrain from in this thread. You're welcome to assert that stance and pose the quoted question elsewhere.

the news huh...ok

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2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Btw, public service announcement for everyone, do not click on links in Zoom chat. There is a pretty nasty vulnerability that will let folks get access to your system (or your work network). 

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/04/unpatched-zoom-bug-lets-attackers-steal-windows-credentials-with-no-warning/

 

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46 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Okay then, a Covid-19 official said that states were not eligible to receive resources from the federal stockpile because that stockpile is only for the federal government.  Federal preemption does not actually apply here (neither implied nor express).  So how are ventilators and the like currently in federal custody going to make it to the states if the prevailing notion in Washington is that the states have to create and maintain their own stockpiles?  It's a serious question about serious assets getting to people who are seriously ill.  Is that okay?  Or point me to the logistics thread and I'll gladly ask there.  This is a serious supply chain issue that needs to be addressed. 

I'm guessing the federal stockpile was somewhat generic for all kinds of events but if I had to bet I'd say it was mainly for a nuclear strike and it was there to make sure the federal govt kept working.  everyone else was on their own.

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I'm guessing the federal stockpile was somewhat generic for all kinds of events but if I had to bet I'd say it was mainly for a nuclear strike and it was there to make sure the federal govt kept working.  everyone else was on their own.

Nope. https://www.phe.gov/about/sns/Pages/default.aspx

The Strategic National Stockpile's role is to supplement state and local supplies during public health emergencies. Many states have products stockpiled, as well. The supplies, medicines, and devices for life-saving care contained in the stockpile can be used as a short-term stopgap buffer when the immediate supply of adequate amounts of these materials may not be immediately available.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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