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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Its way back upthread but I thought we heard they bypassed the mice, and injected some healthy people to see if it would have side effects but I could be wrong.  its been pretty quiet on that front probably because they don't want people to hope for some miracle vax in the next 3-4 months. I think Fauci keeps saying its 12 months away.

THOSE FOOLISH BASTARDS !!!!!   THAT'S  where the zombies will come from dammit !!!

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so....Amarillo is doing this:

Many viewers are wondering why non-essential businesses are still operating, and the City clarified today that business can remain open, but they must follow these guidelines.

“All customers and employees need to stay at least six feet apart. No more than 10 customers inside the store, enhance sanitation on common surfaces like counter tops, points of sale devices, or shopping carts, things like that, then ensuring customers and employees are keeping enhanced hygiene standards,” said Amarillo City Manager Jarred Miller.

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7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Patient 1 is already in.  There are also active treatment trials underway.  I had a discussion with someone at a CRO running one of the international trials this week.  They told me they stood up the trial in less than a week, and they were operating with unprecedented timelines. They had a crazy ask in terms of timeline that I couldn't come close to meeting.   

The Manhattan Project and Apollo 11 delivered on a crazy timelines.  Come on, step it up.

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Further to my earlier post, why won’t we see this type of issue in the fall, unless treatments or vaccines are deployed?

4455bdda21cecfc49962c64f6bde3833.jpg

Vaccines and treatment are one way to clamp down on the second wave. Another, is to implement SK style testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infected individuals. Pretty much all of those options are going to have the same effect of removing infected individuals from the population and limiting the spread of the virus. Unfortunately, because we weren't able to do the former quickly enough the first go around, we have to shut down. If we get the virus under control enough with a shutdown, we can start to implement those control measures as we reopen. But, I worry though that our half-assed shut down will keep the infection circulating enough that we aren't able to implement SK style control. We may end up with the worst of all worlds. 

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5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It is wrong that I would expect the travis county data to be better basically 3 weeks into social distancing and nearly two weeks into lockdown.  We are adding cases at an alarming rate, with most of them between teh ages of 20-50.  

I wonder how far up that curve would be displaced if the city hadn't canceled SXSW?

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The Manhattan Project and Apollo 11 delivered on a crazy timelines.  Come on, step it up.

Based on what was shared with me in terms of the treatment trials, they certainly are.  I think that they will do so with the vax trials as well, but there are certain things that you can't just throw resources at.  Like the time course of the human body's immune response to vaccination.  From what I understand they are compressing every possible point in the chain, including setting up to ramp production of the vax before the trials are even completed.  

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God, I hope it forces schools into bankruptcy, and they come back with less bureaucratic bloat, act more financially responsible, stop building needlessly, focus on the students, and fucking lower tuition and keep our children from being slaves to the holders of their student loans.



What kind of schools fit this description? State funded schools aren’t going away. I wager it’s small private schools like Southwestern? Perhaps a large handful of New England schools? What about schools like Baylor or SMU?

RD has posted the financial situation of aggy but I’m sure the state will backstop then like a bankrupt airline.
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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It is wrong that I would expect the travis county data to be better basically 3 weeks into social distancing and nearly two weeks into lockdown.  We are adding cases at an alarming rate, with most of them between teh ages of 20-50. 

Capturetc.jpg 

With this in mind, let's all remember that the case count only reflects those who feel sick enough to get tested...so that's a reflection of reality from a week ago showing maybe one in ten or one in five or whatever the real ratio actually is. Now, mentally project last week's infected on a similar trajectory (hopefully slower) to calculate the number of people who might be spreading it today.

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

 


I guess the difference is in the assumption that a nation full of selfish, overweight idiotic morons will actually change their behaviors upon exiting the shelter in place to be responsible about social distancing, etc. Ya right. I have completely eliminated that scenario from the equation. Folks will be chowing on turkey legs at tailgates in no time.

 Ren Fest is turkey leg central.

1 hour ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

We had many more opportunities to play shirtless volleyball on deployment.

Go on...

22 minutes ago, LonghornJones said:


What year is your Miata?

I'm certain it is a Del Sol.

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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

With this in mind, let's all remember that the case count only reflects those who feel sick enough to get tested...so that's a reflection of reality from a week ago showing maybe one in ten or one in five or whatever the real ratio actually is. Now, mentally project last week's infected on a similar trajectory (hopefully slower) to calculate the number of people who might be spreading it today.

Yeah, time to get it, feel bad enough to get tested, and get results back means we are still mostly logging spring break and other travel cases. I feel we'll say this for several more weeks, but....the next couple of weeks will tell us more.

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12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It is wrong that I would expect the travis county data to be better basically 3 weeks into social distancing and nearly two weeks into lockdown.  We are adding cases at an alarming rate, with most of them between teh ages of 20-50. 

Capturetc.jpg 

I have some colleagues that support testing labs in Texas and they have told me last week that the back log for tests was 4-5 days, so these numbers are also probably that far behind too.

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I think premium cable is fucking up right now.  How come HBO and others arent running their good shit and previous series?  Have they totally conceded to Netflix and Disney+.  I have the TV on in the office during the day and it's amazing to see HBO, etc.  playing some really shitty stuff. 



Fucking dead on. I have been annoyed enough over the past two weeks that I actually cut the cord Friday. Fuck these guys.
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1 minute ago, Seger78 said:

I have some colleagues that support testing labs in Texas and they have told me last week that the back log for tests was 4-5 days, so these numbers are also probably that far behind too.

yeah, as both you and bolverk point out there are a few lags and other factors in play.  Just throwing a number out there, we are probably 20+x that number in terms of actual cases.  And shit that might be way too low. 

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10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

From what I understand they are compressing every possible point in the chain, including setting up to ramp production of the vax before the trials are even completed.  

That's what my best project manager often facetiously referred to as a "sucess-based schedule".  Almost nobody ever understood the intended snark.

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

I think premium cable is fucking up right now.  How come HBO and others arent running their good shit and previous series?  Have they totally conceded to Netflix and Disney+.  I have the TV on in the office during the day and it's amazing to see HBO, etc.  playing some really shitty stuff. 

HBO is opening up their online service to nonsubscribers. They are going to have their series available all the way back to the Sopranos/Wire. Sirius App is free through May also.

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4 minutes ago, Seger78 said:

I have some colleagues that support testing labs in Texas and they have told me last week that the back log for tests was 4-5 days, so these numbers are also probably that far behind too.

Yeah - I've said for a few weeks that you really need to know the lag time between testing and results to get an understanding of how this is trending, and how many people have been rejected for testing as they don't meet the requirement for the limited tests available. 
And note that even though testing kits have increase it took longer to increase the ability to labs capacity than it did to increase the number of test kits. 

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4 minutes ago, Gardner Barnes said:

 

 


Fucking dead on. I have been annoyed enough over the past two weeks that I actually cut the cord Friday. Fuck these guys.

 

 

Who still watches the live feed on HBO?  You get access to HBO Go with any sub, and you can watch whatever the fuck you want.  I've already rewatched the Wire.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Preach. I would love to see some of those series. I am not good at remembering to watch at a particular time and worse at recording. They could win me over with that as I don't watch a whole lot of shows. I've never watched that Game of Thrones but then I have no idea what channel it was on.

Consider the DACA, Immigration thread in the CR. It is somewhat related to your topic and may spark some new life into that thread.

Yes, and the best part is everyone will agree with him in the echo chamber 

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21 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Vaccines and treatment are one way to clamp down on the second wave. Another, is to implement SK style testing, contact tracing, and isolation of infected individuals. Pretty much all of those options are going to have the same effect of removing infected individuals from the population and limiting the spread of the virus. Unfortunately, because we weren't able to do the former quickly enough the first go around, we have to shut down. If we get the virus under control enough with a shutdown, we can start to implement those control measures as we reopen. But, I worry though that our half-assed shut down will keep the infection circulating enough that we aren't able to implement SK style control. We may end up with the worst of all worlds. 

in theory because testing will be much more readily available and with quicker results, that should lead to infected people self-quarantining. But if you are basing this on people doing the right thing, then there is a flaw in the plan. 

That second wave is going to fuck football season.

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's what my best project manager often facetiously referred to as a "sucess-based schedule".  Almost nobody ever understood the intended snark.

as it relates to ramping production before trials are completed Fauci already said we don't really lose anything by doing that.  I think they have multiple vax trials with corresponding early risk production ramps for each version.

I wonder if the early risk production ramp is similar to a schedule where you can build to a certain point, hold, and then go one way or the other once the path is known.

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2 hours ago, Lobo said:

My bad.  Shouldn't talk politics on this thread.  But way more controversial topics are perfectly acceptable.  Some of us are caught between this thread and CR because of our affiliations.  But that doesn't excuse the rants.  My bad.

Tunnel/Group think is a helluva stumbling block. 

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1 hour ago, fuggled said:
3 hours ago, Don Johnson said:
Wow. The folks with a grocery store in their building traveled less than the ones who live 5 miles from town. 

You do realize this is showing the % reduction in travel, right? It's not just raw miles. Rural areas aren't red because the store is far away. They're red because people there are going to the store just as frequently as ever.

Yes. Urban areas can reduce to practically zero. They have everything they need within a block or two along with multiple times more delivery options. Rural areas cannot. They still have to travel. And do you realize that not much of the country in that map is dark red, right?  Most of the country is half or less. They just can’t shut it down completely. They also have less of a need to.

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

as it relates to ramping production before trials are completed Fauci already said we don't really lose anything by doing that.  I think they have multiple vax trials with corresponding early risk production ramps for each version.

I wonder if the early risk production ramp is similar to a schedule where you can build to a certain point, hold, and then go one way or the other once the path is known.

Well, we wouldn't lose anything except scrapped product if the trials fail to pan out.  There might be an opportunity cost at play, too, depending on how difficult it is to switch from manufacturing one product to another down the road.

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3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

in theory because testing will be much more readily available and with quicker results, that should lead to infected people self-quarantining. But if you are basing this on people doing the right thing, then there is a flaw in the plan. 

That second wave is going to fuck football season.

Eh, people have been doing a decent job of improving hygiene and social distancing, even given the contradictory orders by various levels of the government. I assume some percentage of folks would violate quarantine orders, but the vast majority would comply. And, there should be pretty stiff criminal penalties for those that don't. 

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Well, we wouldn't lose anything except scrapped product if the trials fail to pan out.  There might be an opportunity cost at play, too, depending on how difficult it is to switch from manufacturing one product to another down the road.

I really have no idea how creating vaccines works but I don't think it is like manufacturing a product where there are a highly limited amount of manufacturing lines.  if you have 5 trials going and none pan out you are fucked regardless.  If 1 pans out and you had all 5 running risk production you are good right?  

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10 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everyone has their strengths and deficits.   I never let military or law enforcement or engineers sit on a jury if I can prevent it.  They cannot get it through their heads the concept of you can win a trial with 51% proof.  Their brains do not work that way.  They are hard wired to accept only proof, and tend to automatically disregard the order of the Court to follow the Preponderance of the Evidence  jury charge.  They will not follow it.    They will say after, "I had some doubts...you did not prove it fully..."   No kidding.   That would be a different standard - not the one the Court gave you.   It is useless to educate them, and they will argue that they are right when you tell them that it was more likely than not true.

Which is all to say, if you have a decision that takes nuance and possibilities with a relatively soft percentage of proof - like under 80 percent, that type of mind will resist  an option that is not a sure thing.   And sometimes you have to make a BIG decision based upon a 'more likely than not'.     That type of mind tends to freeze when making a decision with less than certainty.   Studies show that the type of black-white thinker that is military or LE or engineering tend to be conservative/GOP.   Liberals tend to be folks who see more gray.  We like nurses and social workers and teachers on juries.   They do fine with a 55% proof in a case.  

Well, as many of the military folks on this thread have resisted broad brush characterizations of their nature, I'll do the same for engineers.  A great many engineers are, in fact, progressive or liberal, and the vast majority I've ever worked with tend to be incredibly adept at juggling highly complex problems with sometimes dozens of variables at play.  They literally work in a world of gray, every day of the week.  They also tend to be highly capable of accepting new information and folding it into their previous perspective, and sometimes allowing it to drive a new course of action.

Now, how that plays out in a courtroom, I don't know.  I've never sat on a jury.  (Only got called once and during voir dire the full jury was seated before I was asked any questions.)  I can see how what you're saying could be true in the sense that an engineer would definitely argue that "51% is not proof", but I personally wouldn't balk at the idea that the rules of the game require me to make the call at 51% or greater.  

So, I of course have to defer to you on what happens in your environment, and I won't question the studies you reference, but I do question your characterization of the species on the whole.  Maybe that would cause you to re-assess in some cases, I don't know.  I doubt you have a lot of time to dick around, so hard fast rules are probably a necessary evil.

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23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah - I've said for a few weeks that you really need to know the lag time between testing and results to get an understanding of how this is trending, and how many people have been rejected for testing as they don't meet the requirement for the limited tests available. 
And note that even though testing kits have increase it took longer to increase the ability to labs capacity than it did to increase the number of test kits. 

If capacity is such an issue, why did states not utilize their state universities then? A rough estimate of UT or A&M would be that there are probably 200 labs across each of those campuses capable of processing (with PCR) close to 100 tests every 3 hours. Running on a 24 hour cycle, that's what, 800 tests a day per lab? It's not impossible to perform those safely and up to standard provided they had the materials to do so. Primers or whatever they need.

What am I missing here?

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20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Tunnel/Group think is a helluva stumbling block. 

Indeed.  I forget sometimes that CR leans one way and this thread leans another, though neither ever admit it...nor should we.  IRL, I wear one mask for work purposes.  And privately, I wear another.  On this website, I wear yet another.  And yes, the mask pun is wildly intended.  

All that to say, I really need to get some more masks since Travis County has yet peak.  

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Just now, Mrs Whiggins said:

If capacity is such an issue, why did states not utilize their state universities then? A rough estimate of UT or A&M would be that there are probably 200 labs across each of those campuses capable of processing (with PCR) close to 100 tests every 3 hours. Running on a 24 hour cycle, that's what, 800 tests a day per lab? It's not impossible to perform those safely and up to standard provided they had the materials to do so. Primers or whatever they need.

What am I missing here?

UT System is well on the case.  There is also a very interesting back-channel between them (mainly MDA, UTHSC-Houston, UTMB, Pickle, UTSA, UT-Southwestern, UT-A, and UT-D) and several assets in China/Asia to get much more accurate data from their former colleagues.  No politics, but the much-villified CIA and other NIC folks have set up temporary shop in the above mentioned institutions to lean on them to lean on their former lab buddies for better intel than is available through WHO/UN/et. al.  It's really fascinating shit actually.  For once, our education of the world's STEM leaders whom then leave for their home nations afterwards is paying off.  I talked about it weeks ago on another thread and would love to hear others' experiences.  

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Everyone has their strengths and deficits.   I never let military or law enforcement or engineers sit on a jury if I can prevent it.  They cannot get it through their heads the concept of you can win a trial with 51% proof.  Their brains do not work that way.  They are hard wired to accept only proof, and tend to automatically disregard the order of the Court to follow the Preponderance of the Evidence  jury charge.  They will not follow it.    They will say after, "I had some doubts...you did not prove it fully..."   No kidding.   That would be a different standard - not the one the Court gave you.   It is useless to educate them, and they will argue that they are right when you tell them that it was more likely than not true.
Which is all to say, if you have a decision that takes nuance and possibilities with a relatively soft percentage of proof - like under 80 percent, that type of mind will resist  an option that is not a sure thing.   And sometimes you have to make a BIG decision based upon a 'more likely than not'.     That type of mind tends to freeze when making a decision with less than certainty.   Studies show that the type of black-white thinker that is military or LE or engineering tend to be conservative/GOP.   Liberals tend to be folks who see more gray.  We like nurses and social workers and teachers on juries.   They do fine with a 55% proof in a case.  
So I think that Red State leaders may be slower to act not out of evil intent, but due to  a lack of 100% certainty proof about the Covid-19 response "right decision".  
If this is too political I will delete it - or a Mod can. 
 
 
 
Never set on a jury, but how the fuck do you quantify 51% proof? How do you know it's not actually 49% proof?
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30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everyone has their strengths and deficits.   I never let military or law enforcement or engineers sit on a jury if I can prevent it.  They cannot get it through their heads the concept of you can win a trial with 51% proof.  Their brains do not work that way.  They are hard wired to accept only proof, and tend to automatically disregard the order of the Court to follow the Preponderance of the Evidence  jury charge.  They will not follow it.    They will say after, "I had some doubts...you did not prove it fully..."   No kidding.   That would be a different standard - not the one the Court gave you.   It is useless to educate them, and they will argue that they are right when you tell them that it was more likely than not true.

Which is all to say, if you have a decision that takes nuance and possibilities with a relatively soft percentage of proof - like under 80 percent, that type of mind will resist  an option that is not a sure thing.   And sometimes you have to make a BIG decision based upon a 'more likely than not'.     That type of mind tends to freeze when making a decision with less than certainty.   Studies show that the type of black-white thinker that is military or LE or engineering tend to be conservative/GOP.   Liberals tend to be folks who see more gray.  We like nurses and social workers and teachers on juries.   They do fine with a 55% proof in a case.  

So I think that Red State leaders may be slower to act not out of evil intent, but due to  a lack of 100% certainty proof about the Covid-19 response "right decision".  

If this is too political I will delete it - or a Mod can. 

 

 

 

Gotdammit. Every time I see you post, I feel a pang of guilt knowing I owe you a nice steak dinner. That said, I want you to know I won't be visiting your town anytime soon, you ol' geezer.

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Well, as many of the military folks on this thread have resisted broad brush characterizations of their nature, I'll do the same for engineers.  A great many engineers are, in fact, progressive or liberal, and the vast majority I've ever worked with tend to be incredibly adept at juggling highly complex problems with sometimes dozens of variables at play.  They literally work in a world of gray, every day of the week.  They also tend to be highly capable of accepting new information and folding it into their previous perspective, and sometimes allowing it to drive a new course of action.
Now, how that plays out in a courtroom, I don't know.  I've never sat on a jury.  (Only got called once and during voir dire the full jury was seated before I was asked any questions.)  I can see how what you're saying could be true in the sense that an engineer would definitely argue that "51% is not proof", but I personally wouldn't balk at the idea that the rules of the game require me to make the call at 51% or greater.  
So, I of course have to defer to you on what happens in your environment, and I won't question the studies you reference, but I do question your characterization of the species on the whole.  Maybe that would cause you to re-assess in some cases, I don't know.  I doubt you have a lot of time to dick around, so hard fast rules are probably a necessary evil.


Agree, and will add that software developers often do not fall into engineer mindsets.
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Baylor also doesn’t not subscribe to 100% being the burden of proof required for consent. “Hey, I was 51% convinced she wanted it!” In fact, they are willing to go much lower, maybe even down to zero.

What I’m learning today is that our justice system likes to rape people.

Edited by Casual Encounter
Poor wording.
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1 hour ago, Hate said:

Didn’t someone already create a vaccine that is in the trial stage now? I thought I had read that someone in The Seattle area had received it but it takes a while to know for certain there are no side effects. I thought that they had said it should be ready for mass production by February if all goes well. I could be remembering something incorrectly though.

Again, vaccines aren't something you can just shoot from the hip on. It takes time to know if they work, otherwise you're just wasting time, effort, and resources making and administering a vaccine that doesn't actually treat the disease. 

That's exactly what happened in 1918.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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