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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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2 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

They need to close grocery stores to the unwashed masses. That is really the last place people are gathering in mass at this point. Start letting only the Instacart people in and then HEB start hiring all these out of work retail and restaurant workers to come in and put together HEB curbside orders.

There is no way. If it takes 30 minutes for a customer to shop for their groceries, it takes the same, if not longer for a shopper to shop for them. They have to go around to all of the aisles and pick out all of the items and put them in a cart, the same as a customer. Except if they are out of a specific item, the shopper has to text the customer for a replacement. Customers aren't always timely in their responses. So you would have the same amount of human hours of shoppers in each store as you would if the store has customers. Once they shop the orders, where do they put the groceries? They would need a huge amount of refrigerated and freezer space at curbside. They would need a large group of people to pick out the refrigerated stuff and match with the other stuff at curbside and take out to the cars. How many curbside spots are there now, like 15? You would need to increase to like 100.

What they need to do is restrict customers to one person per family. You shop by yourself. This would cut down the number of people in stores greatly. Shopping should be an essential activity, not a social activity. I also like the idea of males can go every other day, and females can go every other day. Stores also need to do better in forcing people in the lines outside to stand 6 feet away from the person in front of them. I saw a picture at a walmart where they were using carts to make spots for people to stand 6 feet away from others in line.

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4 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

The other thing...the % line is going up when it typically would be going down.  I did check their total deaths number...that was not significantly different

Yep. It is going the wrong direction for this time of year.  Here is the CDC's weekly surveillance summary: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/pdf/covidview.pdf

Mortality Surveillance Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on April 2, 2020, 8.2% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 21, 2020 (week 12) were due to pneumonia and influenza (P&I). This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 12. The increase in P&I percentage is being driven primarily by an increase in pneumonia deaths (excluding deaths where influenza is also listed as a cause of death). The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia has increased sharply since the end of February, while those due to influenza increased at a more modest rate through early March and declined slightly during the week ending March 21. This could reflect an increase in deaths from pneumonia caused by noninfluenza associated infections including COVID-19. NCHS is monitoring deaths associated with COVID-19. Those data will be summarized in this report starting next week, but a preliminary analysis indicates that approximately half of the deaths with COVID-19 listed as a cause of death also include pneumonia as a cause of death. For this reason, in addition to the substantial decrease in influenza activity and the fact that the P&I epidemic threshold is driven by the percentage of pneumonia deaths occurring in the same time period during the past 5 years, comparisons of the P&I percentage to the epidemic threshold provides an indicator of pneumonia deaths in excess of what would otherwise be expected.

 

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11 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

People whose lives revolve around politics feel it’s their purpose in life to force their opinions on other people, and drive away anyone with an opposing viewpoint. There’s no middle ground , or anything other than extreme. They are eventually left unsatisfied, left ranting to one another about shit they all agree on. So, they must seek out others in order to feel the rush and have a sense of purpose. View them as abusive drug addicts and it becomes easier to understand. Politics is their drug but they still need someone to abuse.

I view them in the same regard as religious nuts. Drug addicts is good too. Hadn't thought of it that way. Good layout of exactly what keeps happening every 2-3 days here though. It's a collective fucking pathology.

7 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Finally. The dipshit with that raw numbers tweet probably didn’t pay attention to the fact that all the data for the last week was not completely compiled yet so of course with an unfinished tabulation the raw number would be down.

If you're still referring to the Reagan guy's tweet, he knew exactly what he was doing. It absolutely had a political lean and it was absolutely done to manipulate his audience. 

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28 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I have been wondering about this. With so many more people becoming temporary germaphobes, will the significant decrease in typical US pneumonia deaths offset the covid deaths?

I want to see the total US deaths caused by pneumonia in any given year and compare that to 2020 deaths caused by the total of typical pneumonia + atypical pneumonia + Covid 19 and see how they compare. 

16 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Or more plausibly, it's the pneumonia vaccine.

Two types of pneumonia though: viral and bacterial. Don't know if that chart makes the distinction. I've had pneumonia multiple times, once gravely ill. All occasions were bacterial and a secondary infection following an illness such as a rhinovirus or flu. The worst case I had predated the vaccine and came after the flu. Now that there is a flu vaccine, everyone in the family gets it, and my GP includes the pneumonia shot for me although I'm younger than most who receive it.

If I understand it correctly: the flu vaccine is preventing against a virus, but the pneumonia vaccine works on a bacterium. I had both this year back in the fall. The social distancing would provide some relief from contracting the flu as well as viral pneumonia.

 

I don't know about cause of death flu v COVOD, but with the lack of tests wouldn't many health depts simply be reporting one way or the other?

As COVID spreads, a person was less likely to contract the flu because our bodies would prefer to have one or the other virus. The virus hijacks the cells essentially (if my 10th grade bio memory is correct) and while perhaps possible, less likely you would have both simultaneously. It wouldn't mean you could not have them in succession, however.

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7 minutes ago, po elvis said:

There is no way. If it takes 30 minutes for a customer to shop for their groceries, it takes the same, if not longer for a shopper to shop for them. They have to go around to all of the aisles and pick out all of the items and put them in a cart, the same as a customer. Except if they are out of a specific item, the shopper has to text the customer for a replacement. Customers aren't always timely in their responses. So you would have the same amount of human hours of shoppers in each store as you would if the store has customers. Once they shop the orders, where do they put the groceries? They would need a huge amount of refrigerated and freezer space at curbside. They would need a large group of people to pick out the refrigerated stuff and match with the other stuff at curbside and take out to the cars. How many curbside spots are there now, like 15? You would need to increase to like 100.

What they need to do is restrict customers to one person per family. You shop by yourself. This would cut down the number of people in stores greatly. Shopping should be an essential activity, not a social activity. I also like the idea of males can go every other day, and females can go every other day. Stores also need to do better in forcing people in the lines outside to stand 6 feet away from the person in front of them. I saw a picture at a walmart where they were using carts to make spots for people to stand 6 feet away from others in line.

First paragraph is incorrect.  Employee shopping is done with a headset or handheld device that guides them to the particular aisle and slot an item is stocked.  The notion that they would be just as meandering/ and deliberating in their selections is a whiff.  Customers also can indicate on their orders if substitutions/ private label/ price changes are acceptable.  The employees picking orders in the stores aren't pinging customers to verify these alternative choices.

Second paragraph is spot on.   It should be task oriented and getting items the household needs.  Work your list and shop.  Fuck the people still trying to go hang out in the stores and make it a social occasion.  IT ain't that.

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I realize some of you are too dense to avoid conflating "being an asshole" with not drawing the line at the politically-oriented shaming of a moronic dead person and their family, but there are levels of "being an asshole" in the jocular manner it's correctly used here and then there is being a piece of human shit. You fit well into the last category, from what I've read. So do a bunch of your fellow posters from the Cloak Room. 

Hey man. You wanna talk cloak room, go the fuck on to the cloak room, be my guest. I'm just gonna continue to mock people who die doing dumb things.

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4 minutes ago, Iceman said:

First paragraph is incorrect.  Employee shopping is done with a headset or handheld device that guides them to the particular aisle and slot an item is stocked.  The notion that they would be just as meandering/ and deliberating in their selections is a whiff.  Customers also can indicate on their orders if substitutions/ private label/ price changes are acceptable.  The employees picking orders in the stores aren't pinging customers to verify these alternative choices.

I guess I am going by how Shipt and possibly Instacart does it. They receive a list of items with the aisle number by each one. It will say "end of aisle 7". Then they have to look for the item and if there is none, they text the customer. They will take a picture of possible replacements. But point is the shoppers have to physically go to the shelves like the customers to pull the products.

Edited by po elvis
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Just now, Iceman said:

Work your list and shop. 

We usually do that anyway as I  make preprinted computer lists, but prior to this, we took the time to make quick chit chat with the employees as they were assisting us in the deli, butcher, etc. In other words, being friendly. Now we just wave, smile and keep moving and they do likewise. Some day the time to reconnect will return but for now it is about helping everyone stay healthy.

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There is one pretty interesting thing in the data on that site that I just played with.  Total deaths.

So what I did was take weeks 8-11 (week 11 is the last week we have full data for this year as week 12 is still compiling) and averaged them

2015-2016 55,311 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2016-2017 57,419 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2017-2018 56,976 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2018-2019 58,032 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2019-2020......51,690 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

Also week 11 of 2020 came in at 47,655 deaths.  The lowest since 2015

That will be something worth continuing to keep an eye on....doesn't make Covid less of an issue necessarily but uh yea that's going to start getting noticed.

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Either you care about people dying or you don't.  Personally I think there should be a much deeper discussion about the broader nature of death  and how it fits into the natural order of things but that sure as fuck doesn't involve spiking the football on any one given death.

Noting the karma/irony of some stupid asshole spreading dangerous lies and engaging in behavior that subjects OTHER people and their loved ones to serious injury or death from Corona - only to die from the thing she vehemently swore was a hoax - is the very essence of Shaggy/Surly.

I feel sorry for the people she likely infected while she ran around spewing her false and dangerous idiocy.
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56 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I don't know who this is on twitter as I do not have an account, but is this true?  

 

45 minutes ago, millhouse said:

I took that graph as them implying pneumonia deaths are being categorized as COVID related deaths this year

Because as of last week most everything is COVID according to the CDC. Die at a hospital and not sure? Call it COVID.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

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19 minutes ago, Texas_Rocks said:

We’re not big fans of HEB curbside p/u for a couple of reason, but the primary reason is that HEB frequently has outdated or nearly outdated food products mixed in with freshly stocked product.

Hopefully the curbside service will eliminate some of that as the HEB pickers pull items without checking the expiration dates. On the other hand I do feel bad for the customers that get home and discover that shit.

Before our HEB curbside pickup, we were notified that we weren’t getting tp, and they had substituted another brand of peanut butter for the Jiff.

We actually didn’t get any peanut butter at all, but did get a 12 pack of tp. Lol

giving that to one of my sons who has two boys, so he needs it.

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Also, we go at opening to our store on Sundays (pre-COVID we could shop and return and still make 9:00 no sweat) and there is no one in there lately except for a handful of the Insta shopppers and they are easy to avoid because they are slow. With the donut buying Sunday school crowd gone, I can fly through the store in 20 minutes for a mostly full cart. A decade plus of shopping there and I know where everything is.

 

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2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Going into the grocery store without a mask and/or gloves is...... oof

Last time I went, i was shocked at the number of people who just didnt give a fuck. Or didnt have the means? Either way, we are def. fucked based on this small, myopic sample size/opinion

I’m not wearing a mask or gloves. I can make it through a grocery store trip without touching my face or anything else on me. I use sanitizer before I pay and after I pay, when I get in the car, etc. I stay off aisles with other people standing around. My phone and keys stay in my pocket the entire time, it’s just not that difficult. I’m sure I’ll end up with it at some point, but I would rather those that truly need then have the masks. I’ll continue to be ultra cautious in my interactions. Plus, people using gloves and masks have been more careless than those not in my interactions and are just wasting them.

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4 minutes ago, po elvis said:

I guess I am going by how Shipt and possibly Instacart does it. They receive a list of items with the aisle number by each one. It will say "end of aisle 7". Then they have to look for the item and if there is none, they text the customer. They will take a picture of possible replacements. But point is the shoppers have to physically go to the shelves like the customers to pull the products.

Just going by how people are in general, that sounds like an absolute beating of a process. Ugggh.

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1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

I don't know who this is on twitter as I do not have an account, but is this true?  

Look at it. The peak is the same as previous years, in early January. We weren’t talking about covid in early January, but yet the peak deaths were already way lower and the downward trend over time was similar to previous years as well, relative to the peak. Then it started dropping further as our covid measures also reduced other communicable disease spread. 
so no, not a miracle and not just a label change. 

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3 hours ago, Moby Ric said:

So I was at the local HEB yesterday getting my rations.  It was depressing as Hell.  People were making no eye contact, staying away from each other all looking defeated.  Shelves were ok but it is take what you can get.  I assume this is what shopping in Russia is like.

One thing I did notice though was that usually HEB has those coupons hanging in front of stuff they are running specials on.  Not a single one in the store.  I assume it is cause they run specials on stuff they are over stocked on and now everything is being bought.  While I am thankful they have most of what we need they are making a killing right now.  And fuck the hoarders.

Noticed that too. I usually get high fiber/high protein bread that was almost always discounted a couple bucks (from $4.99/5.99 to $2.50) but now they aren't even stocking it and all the bread except generic is $3.99 or up. Sad (?) part is that I tried hitting up the Entenmann's Bakery outlet and the sign out front said they were closed until further notice because no one was sending them any supplies anymore. Guess everything is selling, which is good for them but sucks for me b/c they usually had deals on all their baked goods from bread to donuts along the lines of 3 packages of anything for $4.

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49 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

I think folks in supply chain planning for material goods can make changes immediately.  In fact, I'm already seeing it happen.

World governments on the other hand?  They'll only respond if We The People hold them accountable.  We'll have to keep the pressure on to enact the changes we want.

 

Agree. People, citizens will Respo d properly. We already see that now with people and businesses volunteering assistance.

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5 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Also, we go at opening to our store on Sundays (pre-COVID we could shop and return and still make 9:00 no sweat) and there is no one in there lately except for a handful of the Insta shopppers and they are easy to avoid because they are slow. With the donut buying Sunday school crowd gone, I can fly through the store in 20 minutes for a mostly full cart. A decade plus of shopping there and I know where everything is.

 

Our big HEB grocery was in the middle of rearranging the entire store when all the discombobulation hit. None of us long time customers knew where anything was for a month until the store began handing out updated “maps”. Kinda moot now for us, what with the curbside thing.

are you still walking your dawgs to Central Park?

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7 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Just going by how people are in general, that sounds like an absolute beating of a process. Ugggh.

yeah my GF was doing Shipt on the side. she stopped 3 weeks ago. it became a pain and not worth the risk. they could triple the pay and it wouldn't be worth it.

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I'd be curious to know how many more professional shoppers would be required, if every single person/family buying groceries, switched over to curbside/insta/delivery models?  It would certainly be a lot more professional shoppers than are currently in stores.  But how many more?  How much of a difference might it make to the potential spread of the virus?  Or would it just shift the risk from one population to another?  Not sure...

 

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6 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I'd be curious to know how many more professional shoppers would be required, if every single person/family buying groceries, switched over to curbside/insta/delivery models?  It would certainly be a lot more professional shoppers than are currently in stores.  But how many more?  How much of a difference might it make to the potential spread of the virus?  Or would it just shift the risk from one population to another?  Not sure...

 

Extremely hard to ramp that up but OTOH there are plenty of people looking for jobs unfortunately.  Plus people don't plan ahead enough to not have to run out and get something they need. Maybe there would be larger orders that would take some extended leave time and a one hour or less pull up service for "express items" with limited selection and 10 item limit. 

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2 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Extremely hard to ramp that up but OTOH there are plenty of people looking for jobs unfortunately.  Plus people don't plan ahead enough to not have to run out and get something they need. Maybe there would be larger orders that would take some extended leave time and a one hour or less pull up service for "express items" with limited selection and 10 item limit. 

Yup there are some split-mode models we might be able to use, that would improve the overall process flow and minimize churn and idle time.

I just don't know that even if we COULD hire up enough employees, and even if we COULD convince everyone to shift their use case and start utilizing the professional shoppers instead of doing it on their own, even if the system COULD handle that which I have serious doubts about-- would it actually do much good?  Or would it just shift the risk to a new population?

I don't think we'll know the answer to this in time for THIS pandemic, but we should be able to do some modeling and prepare better for the next one.

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5 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Extremely hard to ramp that up but OTOH there are plenty of people looking for jobs unfortunately.  Plus people don't plan ahead enough to not have to run out and get something they need. Maybe there would be larger orders that would take some extended leave time and a one hour or less pull up service for "express items" with limited selection and 10 item limit. 

It would lower the number of unique individuals in the store every day by a factor of 5 or 10, depending on how many orders each shopper can fulfill in a day.  That would make a big difference I’d imagine, especially if the grocery store was the only or largest communal spot left. 

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38 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

There is one pretty interesting thing in the data on that site that I just played with.  Total deaths.

So what I did was take weeks 8-11 (week 11 is the last week we have full data for this year as week 12 is still compiling) and averaged them

2015-2016 55,311 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2016-2017 57,419 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2017-2018 56,976 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2018-2019 58,032 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

2019-2020......51,690 deaths per week in those 4 weeks

Also week 11 of 2020 came in at 47,655 deaths.  The lowest since 2015

That will be something worth continuing to keep an eye on....doesn't make Covid less of an issue necessarily but uh yea that's going to start getting noticed.

That doesn't seem particularly surprising to me. We've shutdown large swaths of the country. Presumably death due to things like traffic fatalities, other accidents, other illnesses (e.g., flu), and even crime have been cut down significantly as a result. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/491055-crime-rates-drop-across-the-nation-amid-coronavirus

But, the important point here is that you can't take a decrease in total deaths to mean that a shutdown wasn't necessary. Rather, the decrease in deaths is almost certainly attributable to the shutdown itself. 

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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I think it largely depends on the level of OCD of the individual and of Corp policy for said shoppers combined. Given we have trouble getting masks and gloves for you know, medical folks, I suspect it would shift the issues. Frankly, I treat stuff in my curb side pick up or Amazon orders as if a thousand infected monkeys had put the order together. Which....
In good news, TN has decided to keep Turkey season going. So, given the number running around my property, I won't hurt for protein.
Spring turkey hunting season begins Saturday | Sports | wsmv.com
https://www.wsmv.com/sports/spring-turkey-hunting-season-begins-saturday/article_580e9b60-75d2-11ea-b918-83109c6380a2.html

But you been eatin’ them squirrels you shot, right?
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I've been storing them in the freezer, in case I run out of turkey. 

My BIL went to Ole Miss. One of his roommates kept milk cartons in the freezer...he’d fill em with water and two squirrels each (water prevented freezer burn). That way, he could thaw a batch for stew whenever he wanted.
Just a helpful hint for ya.
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speaking of crime... would be interesting to see stats right now. 

i'm betting domestic disturbances are up...but most everything else has to be down. burglaries, thefts, robberies and assaults have to have dropped off a cliff simply due to lack of opportunity, particularly in large urban areas.

i haven't seen any stories of civil unrest either (not that i've been looking).

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On 4/1/2020 at 5:38 PM, Sbbruin said:

Cruisers right now are actually kind of screwed.  Most of the island nations/territories have closed themselves off to visitors.  No visas issued.  The advisory is if you haven't departed the west coast, don't go.  And if you are already out there, there are few places that will allow you enter.  @Viking I think is contemplating leaving Florida for the Caribbean and probably can't right now.

Our primary destination, Catalina Island, is closed to outside boaters, and any non-residents.  So we are stuck.  

Yup. Just about everywhere is closed to foreign boaters. We've heard some nightmares: eg people crossing the Pacific being denied entry. You can't blame the Islanders: if they don't have Corona then why take the risk?

Even islands that you should have rights to enter are finding ways to deny entry. We have friends, US citizens, that are harassed in Puerto Rico. They were allowed entry (since that is controlled by US Border Patrol) but the governor of PR closed all marinas and the cops harass you when you anchor. They finally had to move to the USVIs. One of the few places that is still open and accommodating to cruisers that have no other options.

We're personally looking to get off the boat until the Bahamas opens up... Hopefully in November.

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2 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'm with you there. I think gloves give people a false sense of security and they relax. They think gloves are some magical material that can't spread the virus

ya think? 2-3 weeks ago a guy I work with showed me a paper towel he was using to open doors and stuff.  I asked him if he had been using that paper towel all day.  the look on his face was priceless as he had no idea why I was asking.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Is your posting goal to definitive “ballgame” determinations  in every post?  Do you ever tire of being wrong?

how can you tire of being wrong when you are never wrong because you dream always being right in your head

Edited by dcar00
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56 minutes ago, Brew said:

I’m not wearing a mask or gloves. I can make it through a grocery store trip without touching my face or anything else on me. I use sanitizer before I pay and after I pay, when I get in the car, etc. I stay off aisles with other people standing around. My phone and keys stay in my pocket the entire time, it’s just not that difficult. I’m sure I’ll end up with it at some point, but I would rather those that truly need then have the masks. I’ll continue to be ultra cautious in my interactions. Plus, people using gloves and masks have been more careless than those not in my interactions and are just wasting them.

You holding your breath the whole time you're in there ??

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12 minutes ago, mchookem said:

speaking of crime... would be interesting to see stats right now. 

i'm betting domestic disturbances are up...but most everything else has to be down. burglaries, thefts, robberies and assaults have to have dropped off a cliff simply due to lack of opportunity, particularly in large urban areas.

i haven't seen any stories of civil unrest either (not that i've been looking).

Bad time to be a burglar.   Everybody home and armed.

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Frontline Warrior (Deli Manager) Son of Canecutter coming over today to pick up some masks from Mrs. Canecutter's Victory Mask Factory (aka the sewing room.) I've got some chairs spread 12 feet apart in the backyard so we can set a spell and imbibe a beverage.

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7 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I do like what Walmart is doing. They've made all of their aisles one way. The idea is to keep people spread out. No idea if it is working though

South Austin’s mom is only having 10 visitors at a time and the only acceptable group position is split roast. It’s not quite meeting the 6 feet apart rule but high fives are discouraged.

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my last place i went before isolation was Home Depot to get a 5 gallon of paint to paint the inside of my house while stuck in here. i thought how bad could it be? it is a big store with limited number of people in it. well i am in the paint section and the guy who goes around asking everybody if they need to redo their bathroom starts walking up to me. i give him this WTF look when he gets about 3 feet from me. he asks his question and i blow him off saying "no thanks". a couple minutes later I look over and he is literally in a couple's face doing his little spiel. why in the world would HD have this guy doing this? who is getting their bathrooms redone right now? why was there no thought on their part about social distancing?

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18 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I do like what Walmart is doing. They've made all of their aisles one way. The idea is to keep people spread out. No idea if it is working though

Ha! You must not have been in the Military.

Not sure if they still are,  but the Army's Base commissary was set up that way in the 80-90's (and probably earlier too)......

Oh, it works great until someone or yourself missed something and tries to backtrack (You go wrong way!) to get the item. Nothing worse than a couple of mamasans trying to take you out with their overloaded shopping cart(s) so they can get the last can of Spam. ALWAYS avoid the commissary on the 15th and 30th.

Disclaimer: Before any Mary or Karens on here start throwing out the racist card for any type of above description or what they perceive as a stereotype,.....the military Surl on here know EXACTLY what I am describing.

Edited by BillyGoatHill
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3 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

South Austin’s mom is only having 10 visitors at a time and the only acceptable group position is split roast. It’s not quite meeting the 6 feet apart rule but high fives are discouraged.

First off, its spit roast. And once you high five, you're really talking about an Eiffel Tower. I expect more from you, Casual Encounter. We're only a few weeks into the madness and you can already see the tell-tale signs of cultural and educational deterioration. I fear a modern Dark Ages is all but inevitable. 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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