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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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7 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Plus, they can’t afford better than Soviet era AK-47’s circa 1986 for their weaponry, but they’re going to start spending billions on microbio labs?

I'm thinking NK is the only sect with the full combo of crazy, isolation, and resources to try and do something like this. 

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17 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Why did you quote my post when you’re not even vaguely discussing the same thing? No shit the tech companies have a bunch of info on all of us. No shit the government does. I don’t want them freely exchanging everything they know about us with each other. Your other points comprise a good post made on all of the bulletin boards around the country 20 years ago. “They sell all of your information!!!” No kidding?

I was trying to engage you in a conversation.  I won't that mistake again.  

Comparing privacy concerns 20 years ago to today?  I won't even try to help you understand how stupid that take is. 

 

oh yeah,

it'shappening.gif    

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36 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

We used to have teams within the CDC and DHS to address just those concerns. But they do not exist anymore in 2020. 

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6 hours ago, tjhooker said:

Update, Ohio is in peak. The other moron states around us with less population like IN and MI are a mess Ohio is having less cases.  Dont get me started on PA and MD which seem to be also full retard. Somehow, in Ohio we have locked this shit down. 

DeWine cancelling the Arnold Classic the day before it was to begin is looking like a pretty damn good decision.

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I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

I think ISIS issued a travel warning to their terrorists to avoid hot spots at the beginning of this, so I doubt it
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2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Nah, never. Guess we’ll use this for better measurement3499c509c336e376c209df374961bbcd.jpg

If there is a bottleneck in testing, that would also be reflected on a chart of deaths attributed to COVID-19. You can't attribute a death without confirming it via testing. 

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3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If there is a bottleneck in testing, that would also be reflected on a chart of deaths attributed to COVID-19. You can't attribute a death without confirming it via testing. 

Probably not, because the deaths are a lagging indicator. The people who die have been clinical priorities over those who aren’t seriously ill yet. So while we are testing the dying, we aren’t testing enough people who are still functions but with a mild dry cough and a low grade fever. 

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54 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

I'd hate to be a downer here, but the idea of viruses as weapons isn't exactly new. The threat of a contagious, deadly pathogen was just as obvious before this pandemic. I'm sure a few terrorists have seen Mission Impossible 2, an episode of '24', or a hundred other cheesy movies. I don't think coming up with an effective killer, without wiping out your own people in the process, is an easy proposition. Maybe I'm naive, but I'm not remotely scared of what terrorist microbiologists can cook up in a cave somewhere. Didn't they already try with anthrax?

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Looking at the worldometers site, our death rate is at 3% while everyone else is right around 10%. Either someone is lying, or we're about to have a shitload more dead.

 

And we need to be testing as many as possible. Not ending it and trying to sweep it under the rug.

Edited by Pam Cummings
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2 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Looking at the worldometers site, our death rate is at 3% while everyone else is right around 10%. Either someone is lying, or we're about to have a shitload more dead.

 

And we need to be testing as many as possible. Not ending it and trying to sweep it under the rug.

I still think the mortality rate will turn out to be about 0.3%.

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36 minutes ago, Loco said:

I was trying to engage you in a conversation.  I won't that mistake again.  

Comparing privacy concerns 20 years ago to today?  I won't even try to help you understand how stupid that take is. 

 

oh yeah,

it'shappening.gif    

I like your solution. Let’s not engage. You didn’t have to come back and post that. You could just shut the fuck up and move on. Let’s both do that from here.

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31 minutes ago, Captainant said:

If there is a bottleneck in testing, that would also be reflected on a chart of deaths attributed to COVID-19. You can't attribute a death without confirming it via testing. 

oh yes you can...

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14 hours ago, Chewbacca said:
17 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:
Just an observation. 
I live in "central" f/k/a "north" Dallas.  Traffic around here has been significantly curtailed, even on Central/75, Preston, Northwest Highway, etc.  Like 10% of normal, maybe 25.
Today I drove up to Princeton, east of McKinney, to ride a mountain bike trail.  The further north you got on Central (toward and into Collin County), the worse traffic got, to the point it was fairly indistinguishable from a normal day (well, I should check that, I don't know what Collin County traffic is like on a normal day, cuz I don't go up there very often).  Suffice it to say it was discouragingly heavy.

Maybe it was assholes like you who should be home that were out recreating instead?

You probably jest, but I was alone in my car, and alone on my bike.  There were maybe a half dozen cars at the trail/park.  I passed or was passed by maybe four riders, generally maintaining 6 foot distance, face-to-face.

I take this pretty seriously and wouldn't do anything purposely to endanger others.

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1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

You probably jest, but I was alone in my car, and alone on my bike.  There were maybe a half dozen cars at the trail/park.  I passed or was passed by maybe four riders, generally maintaining 6 foot distance, face-to-face.

I take this pretty seriously and wouldn't do anything purposely to endanger others.

Yeah if you're being careful about your distance from others I just don't see the problem. We've been visiting the Civil War battlefields around Richmond the last several weeks. Keeping plenty of space between ourselves, AND the folks we come in contact with on the trails.  We've even taken wind direction in to account as we move around.

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56 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Are the people who are responsible for the testing also going to be responsible for the vaccine?  I really want the vaccine roll out to be done in a much more competent manner than the testing has been.

Two of the biggest factors in the testing fuckup were that the CDC wanted to exclusively provide tests and the FDA was making it extremely difficult for others to make and get approval for tests.  Both situations have been mostly rectified and all parties (public and private) are furiously engaged in vaccine development.

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well this would suck...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-161747102.html

Quote

South Korea reported on Friday that 91 recovered coronavirus patients have tested positive for the disease again, raising questions over health experts' understanding of the pandemic.

The prospect of people being re-infected with the virus is of international concern, as many countries are hoping that infected populations will develop sufficient immunity to prevent a resurgence of the pandemic.

The reports have also prompted fears the virus may remain active in patients for much longer than was previously thought.

Korean health officials reported Friday that 91 patients thought to have been cleared of the virus had tested positive again, up from 51 people on Monday.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) announced it had sent a team to the city of Daegu, the worst hit area, to investigate why patients there were testing positive again.

Some of the patients testing positive again showed no symptoms, while others were suffering from fevers and respiratory issues, according to the Financial Times. 

South Korean health officials said it remains unclear what is behind the trend, with the preliminary findings from the investigation in Daegu not expected to be released until next week.

However the KCDC's director, Jeong Eun-kyeong, raised the possibility that the virus may have been “reactivated” in people, rather than the patients being re-infected.

False test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients’ systems without being infectious or posing a risk of danger to the host or others.

“There are different interpretations and many variables,” said Jung Ki-suck, professor of pulmonary medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.

“The government needs to come up with responses for each of these variables”.

South Korea had previously been hailed as a success story after its swift implementation of a mass-scale testing regime halted the spread of the virus and led to a far lower fatality rate than the global average.

The country had one of the worst outbreaks outside China in the early stages of the coronavirus spread, but the country has brought the situation under control over the past two months by a combination of measures including transparent reporting, mass-testing, social distancing and extensive contact tracing.

On Friday the country reported 27 new cases, its lowest figure since daily cases peaked at more than 900 in late February, according to the KCDC. The death toll rose by seven to 211, it said.

Nearly 7,000 South Koreans have been reported as recovered from Covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

The city of Daegu, which accounts for more than half of all South Korea's total infections, reported zero new cases for the first time since late February.

However the new reports of recovered patients testing positive once more has sparked fears of a fresh outbreak.

“We say that a patient has fully recovered when he or she tests negative twice within 24 hours. But the fact that some of them tested positive again in a short period means that the virus remains longer than we thought,” Son Young-rae, a spokesman for the health and welfare ministry, told the Financial Times.

“The number will only increase, 91 is just the beginning now,” said Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital.

Mr Kim also said patients had likely “relapsed” rather than been re-infected.

 

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1 hour ago, StruggleBus said:

I’d hate to be a downer here, but I have to think terror cells are watching all of the damage this virus is doing. I wonder how far away we are from terrorists unleashing viruses on us instead of guns and bombs. 
 

The two week lag time for symptoms is huge. Game changer 

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6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I still think the mortality rate will turn out to be about 0.3%.

It all depends on what the CDC decides to come up with as the multiplier.  I think it will be stated closer to .2% IFR but depends on how many deaths there are. if 60K die and 30M have it/had it that is .2.  personally I think way more will have had it than 30M but I think the CDC will come in at that number.    H1N1 was 60M(estimated). last 8 years of flu has been .11 to .16 IFR

the reason this is bigger is it affects older

spanish flu affect 19-40 year olds. 2.5% IFR(estimate)  generally more healthy but that was 100 years ago - our medical community is so much better now it is really hard to even compare.

swine affected 30 and under a lot(older people still died a a high rate if they got it but they seemed more immune to getting it) - Interestingly CCFR was 3%

covid 50 and older are the bulk of the deaths who already have preexisting conditions

its the rapid pace of infection with this virus that is bad. super fast hospitalization rate is what we were/are avoiding. NY/NJ seems to be the only place that really got nailed.  NOLA somewhat as well. Mich is still up in the air.

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3 hours ago, Iceman said:

That graph is questionable, at best; without numbers from previous years for the same types of deaths, obviously minus the CV-19.  It's weird as fuck that this type of info is so absent from conversations, ain't it?

If someone has CV-19 and they step on a landmine, they didn't die of CV-19.    Same goes for someone who's 85, with diabetes and heart conditions.  Just one guy's opinion.

So if I toss you in front of a bus, I didn't kill you it was the bus that killed you ?                           

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Just now, F250 said:

So if I toss you in front of a bus, I didn't kill you it was the bus that killed you ?                           

Don't lower the count.  No matter what.

 

This is the bullshit I am describing, and it is not just limited to this instance:

A Louisiana newborn baby died of the coronavirus this week — after the illness caused the infected mom to give birth prematurely, according to a report.

The infant, who was delivered more than three months early, died Monday morning — and investigators concluded her death was a direct result of the mother’s COVID-19 diagnosis, East Baton Rouge Coroner Dr. Beau Clark said in a press release obtained by The Advocate newspaper.

Oxygen deficiency as a result of the respiratory infection is likely what caused the mom to go into premature labor, the coroner said.

Even if test results show the newborn did not contract the coronavirus herself, her cause of death would still be considered “COVID-related,” Clark said, according to the outlet.

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4 minutes ago, F250 said:

So if I toss you in front of a bus, I didn't kill you it was the bus that killed you ?                           

wait im confused is the landmine the bus or is CV19 the bus?

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3 hours ago, Iceman said:

That graph is questionable, at best; without numbers from previous years for the same types of deaths, obviously minus the CV-19.  It's weird as fuck that this type of info is so absent from conversations, ain't it?

If someone has CV-19 and they step on a landmine, they didn't die of CV-19.    Same goes for someone who's 85, with diabetes and heart conditions.  Just one guy's opinion.

It is not really surprising as states don't typically compile that information for real time viewing. Most states that I have seen only have all cause mortality published for 2017 and earlier. It is difficult to get 2018 data, much less 2020.

As to your other point, do you really think that is happening in New York? It averages 421 deaths a day. They've had 4 straight days of ~800 from just Covid-19. Even if every other death is being falsely attributed to Covid-19 (which there isn't any real evidence of), are just another 400 people dying per day coincidentally?

I continue to believe that under counting of deaths is much more likely than over counting.  A lot of areas aren't attributing anything to Covid-19 without a positive test, and we know those are in short supply (e.g.,  https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-coroners-uncounted-deaths-invs/index.htmlhttps://www.businessinsider.com/coroners-ask-for-coronavirus-test-suspect-us-death-toll-higher-2020-4https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html).

And, even those areas that are allowing Covid-19 to be listed as a cause without a positive test still require some sort of confirmed contact with someone that is confirmed Covid-19 positive AND symptoms consistent with Covid-19 (e.g., pneumonia).  That's a relatively stringent set of a requirements that should greatly reduce the chances of false attribution to Covid-19.  

 

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the phenomenon of people on both sides of the count is even more peculiar to me.

Seeing what we want to see, or truly founded inconsistencies?

 

In the end, it's still death.  I just hope eventually, we can truly evaluate the true risk of this and other viruses.  There just seems to be a shit ton of noise in the system right now.  i get it that it is unprecedented.  There just seems to be a couple different outside influences on the stats.

Edited by Iceman
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8 minutes ago, Iceman said:

Don't lower the count.  No matter what.

 

This is the bullshit I am describing, and it is not just limited to this instance:

A Louisiana newborn baby died of the coronavirus this week — after the illness caused the infected mom to give birth prematurely, according to a report.

The infant, who was delivered more than three months early, died Monday morning — and investigators concluded her death was a direct result of the mother’s COVID-19 diagnosis, East Baton Rouge Coroner Dr. Beau Clark said in a press release obtained by The Advocate newspaper.

Oxygen deficiency as a result of the respiratory infection is likely what caused the mom to go into premature labor, the coroner said.

Even if test results show the newborn did not contract the coronavirus herself, her cause of death would still be considered “COVID-related,” Clark said, according to the outlet.

How is that bullshit? But for Covid-19 in the mother, the newborn would not have died. It is a niche scenario, but certainly something worth tracking. 

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I will note today on my early AM grocery run, that there were no longer milk and egg limits and butter was on sale. The toilet paper and paper towels were fully stocked with normal brands but still limited. There was also liquid hand soap for there first time in a month. No sanitizer yet though. About 50/50 on mask wearing 

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I will note on my trip to the store I encountered no fewer than 3 couples with masks on, because they are so fucking conscientious, right?

Completely ignoring social distancing and endangering others.

One cart. One fucking person.  Don't block aisles.

If you're gonna play the game, at least follow your fucking rules.

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3 minutes ago, Iceman said:

I will note on my trip to the store I encountered no fewer than 3 couples with masks on, because they are so fucking conscientious, right?

Completely ignoring social distancing and endangering others.

One cart. One fucking person.  Don't block aisles.

If you're gonna play the game, at least follow your fucking rules.

Thats why we aint gonna make it

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17 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

I will note today on my early AM grocery run, that there were no longer milk and egg limits and butter was on sale. The toilet paper and paper towels were fully stocked with normal brands but still limited. There was also liquid hand soap for there first time in a month. No sanitizer yet though. About 50/50 on mask wearing 

I observed essentially the same thing yesterday afternoon (did a 3:30pm for a couple of items).  Only difference is the mask wearing was closer to 80%.  

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Looking at IHME model for Illinois, in last week it has gone from 3800 deaths to 777 projected by Aug. Peak from 4/16 to 4/8.

Amazingly low considering density and size of Chicago. 

Guess they shut things down here just in time. 

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5 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Two of the biggest factors in the testing fuckup were that the CDC wanted to exclusively provide tests and the FDA was making it extremely difficult for others to make and get approval for tests.  Both situations have been mostly rectified and all parties (public and private) are furiously engaged in vaccine development.

This is all correct.  And therefore the answer to his question is "Yes".

The FDA will of course be involved in the regulatory approval process, and the CDC will likely have a significant role in the roll out strategy of a vax as production ramps.  We are setting up a situation where we are going to rush an immunological agent to market, developed during a crisis situation, under a regulatory framework that is highly motivated to turn something out quickly. This will likely be the largest vaccination program in the history of the world since smallpox, unless of course we all get the covids before then.  No room for error, but they will skirt the minimum sample size requires powered to efficacy and not safety. Hundreds of millions of people, if not a billions, will be lining up for vax as soon production is able to ramp. It will require a large and active safety surveillance network to really get a good sense of the safety profile. It's gonna be interesting to watch it all play out.  

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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