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Looks like some researcher stumbled across something he wasn't meant to be stumbling across....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/researcher-verge-making-very-significant-030320409.html

Quote

“Bing was on the verge of making very significant findings toward understanding the cellular mechanisms that underlie SARS-CoV-2 infection and the cellular basis of the following complications,”

https://is3-ssl.mzstatic.com/image/thumb/Video/v4/a5/df/78/a5df78e2-4889-e527-499a-320fc0676881/source/1200x630bb.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Jerry Callo said:

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Apparently, this isn't going over very well in Southern California.  I get it - sooners have no business wandering outside of OK.

 

Look at me....look at me....look at me.  Attention whores will never end.  Dumb ass.  

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11 minutes ago, Hate said:

I think the overwhelming anecdotal evidence suggests those polls are wrong. I drove by a state park this past weekend that was packed. Just about every restaurant I drove by had many cars in the parking lot. I think most people are beyond tired of this and are ready to resume normal every day life. This is not over by a damn sight, but people seem ready to at least test the waters. We’ll know how it’s going to go in about 3 weeks. We will see more people infected, I just hope we don’t see a huge uptick in deaths.

I really don’t think anecdotes prove the polls wrong. That’s the equivalent of “how could Ted Cruz win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him” 

There is a universal reluctance for reopening things.... *except* for me because I’m not sick. I’m in favor of it because I’m going to go crazy and I have kids but god forbid we spend time together and omg my hair and nails and I just want to eat at Applebee’s and shop at Target and ugh this mask is so dumb and hard to breath. But not for everyone else, ew I don’t want them out and about, they might be sick.

America has proven time and time again we are in favor of large scale measures, except not for ourselves because MY BODY MY CHOICE MY LIFE MY DECISION

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I really don’t think anecdotes prove the polls wrong. That’s the equivalent of “how could Ted Cruz win, I don’t know anyone who voted for him” 

There is a universal reluctance for reopening things.... *except* for me because I’m not sick. I’m in favor of it because I’m going to go crazy and I have kids but god forbid we spend time together and omg my hair and nails and I just want to eat at Applebee’s and shop at Target and ugh this mask is so dumb and hard to breath. But not for everyone else, ew I don’t want them out and about, they might be sick.

America has proven time and time again we are in favor of large scale measures, except not for ourselves because MY BODY MY CHOICE MY LIFE MY DECISION

what large scale measures have we proven time and time again we are in favor of?

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Well this is fucking wild if true.  The implications are staggering...scientists wrong about the asymptomatic spread?  The link claims the results were rushed.  To be fair, The study having serious flaws simply means it didn't prove or disprove anything, not that the opposite of its conclusion is therefore true.....but if this isn't the case (transmission issues), then it changes everything.

If true, we royally fucked this up....

First, this is GREAT news if confirmed that the original study was wrong.

However... what a colossal f'n cascade of unbelievably overreaching horrible decisions were made before the record was set straight. There's no undoing it.

The New England Journal of Medicine, one of the preeminent medical journals in the world, published a paper where the investigator was sloppy enough to not even have interviewed the primary patient.  So the paper that supports the #1 fear (asymptomatic transmission) turns out to effectively be fabricated.

"Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says calling a case asymptomatic without talking to the person is problematic. "In retrospect, it sounds like this was a poor choice," he says."

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19 minutes ago, ouflak said:

Looks like some researcher stumbled across something he wasn't meant to be stumbling across....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/researcher-verge-making-very-significant-030320409.html

Quote

A medical researcher said to be on the “verge of making very significant” coronavirus findings was found shot to death over the weekend in Pennsylvania, officials said.

Bing Liu, 37, a researcher for the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, was found dead Saturday inside a home in Ross Township, north of Pittsburgh, the Allegheny County Medical Examiner said.

Police have named his sibling, Google Liu, a Brother of Interest. 

 

Quote

An hour after Liu's body was discovered, a second person, Hao Gu, 46, was found dead inside a car less than a mile away, the agency said.

Ross Township Police Detective Sgt. Brian Kohlhepp told the Associated Press that the men “appeared to be connected beyond their proximity to each other.” A motive for the killings remained unknown, and the relationship between the men was also unclear.

First time I've heard that euphemism since the Jeff Alm wreck.

Edited by clapclapclap
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5 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Through contact tracing in South Korea, we’ve seen real examples of disease spread by asymptomatic carriers. This isn’t hypothetical, there’s real data out there

All diseases to some extent have spread by asymptomatic carriers - it's the extend that is being evaluated and impact.  

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3 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Through contact tracing in South Korea, we’ve seen real examples of disease spread by asymptomatic carriers. This isn’t hypothetical, there’s real data out there

Curious how you would know if a person caught the virus from someone asymptomatic vs. symptomatic considering the millions of "touches" a person would have in a given week?

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19 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Well this is fucking wild if true.  The implications are staggering...scientists wrong about the asymptomatic spread?  The link claims the results were rushed.  To be fair, The study having serious flaws simply means it didn't prove or disprove anything, not that the opposite of its conclusion is therefore true.....but if this isn't the case (transmission issues), then it changes everything.

If true, we royally fucked this up....

First, this is GREAT news if confirmed that the original study was wrong.

However... what a colossal f'n cascade of unbelievably overreaching horrible decisions were made before the record was set straight. There's no undoing it.

The New England Journal of Medicine, one of the preeminent medical journals in the world, published a paper where the investigator was sloppy enough to not even have interviewed the primary patient.  So the paper that supports the #1 fear (asymptomatic transmission) turns out to effectively be fabricated.

"Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says calling a case asymptomatic without talking to the person is problematic. "In retrospect, it sounds like this was a poor choice," he says."

Well, that, and we have current data from places in the US -- meatpacking plants, prisons, etc., where functionally everyone 1) is positive, and 2) is asymptomatic.  That points pretty strongly to asymptomatic people spreading the disease.

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38 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

If you have about 30 minutes to go down the rabbit hole with Alice then I would really would like some thoughts on this video. The interview is with a virologist who seems quite capable and doesn’t give off the crazy vibe. There are huge implications for our response to Covid if she approaches truth with her statements.

I ended the video with a giant “ummmmm” in my head.

Seriously?  From the youtube description:

"Go behind the scenes with an experienced expert, virologist who worked under Anthony Fauci,director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. She was jailed and now tells all. Video Curtsy of Vaccine Wars. For your eyes and ears."

If that doesn't fucking reek of psuedoscientific anti-vaccine bullshit for "woke" people I don't know what the fuck does.

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On 5/4/2020 at 10:08 PM, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Unfortunately, people need to be motivated, and a lot of that starts at home.  So many kids have zero shot because their parents' either do not have the time or want/ability to invest the time with helping their children.  That is why programs like Big Brothers Big Sisters and nonprofit in school/after school programs are so vital.  

Idiocracy is real.  It is WAY too fucking easy for some inbred idiot with zero means to have a passel full of kids, and yet, look at how difficult it is for well educated, well off families (either hetero or same sex) to adopt.  It is fucking bullshit.

Yeah, I don't want to pick unnecessarily, but I think too often we blame the education system for abject ignorance, when it's just flat something else.

We could have a system that is effectively teaching algebra in 5th grade and calculus in 8th, with advanced civics and constitutional law in 6th grade and you'd still have a passel of morons if things outside the classroom are not addressed.

Also, I can't prove it exactly, but I think a lot of countries that supposedly have better educational systems manage to weed out the abject morons so they aren't tested for comparison purposes (via "vocational" things and the like, not that vocational education is without merit or solely for the stupid).

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17 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Curious how you would know if a person caught the virus from someone asymptomatic vs. symptomatic considering the millions of "touches" a person would have in a given week?

You wouldn't

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44 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

If you have about 30 minutes to go down the rabbit hole with Alice then I would really would like some thoughts on this video. The interview is with a virologist who seems quite capable and doesn’t give off the crazy vibe. There are huge implications for our response to Covid if she approaches truth with her statements.

I ended the video with a giant “ummmmm” in my head.

nutter-butter-double-nutty-cookies-socia

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3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

To get to herd immunity among any population, in any area, you would need leadership to motivate the population to work together in a united effort while being fully aware of what it will take and the consequences involved.

Work together in a united effort doing what? That isn't happening or would happen anyway?

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58 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

If you have about 30 minutes to go down the rabbit hole with Alice then I would really would like some thoughts on this video. The interview is with a virologist who seems quite capable and doesn’t give off the crazy vibe. There are huge implications for our response to Covid if she approaches truth with her statements.

I ended the video with a giant “ummmmm” in my head.

If you're buying what that video is selling, I've got some oceanfront property in Arizona for you.

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For your AM livestock report, boxed beef continues to streak higher, now double the values of a month ago, fresh pork is moving good as well, but bellies are carrying the mail there as they approach 200 from the lows at 50 a few weeks ago. Loins and butts showed some weakness. There is also talk of additional gov't aid to keep cattle on a maintenance ration. Still a lot of talk about most of the positive plant workers being asymptomatic, but it doesn't seem like its rapidly restoring the confidence of the labor force even with some gains made.  

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Now contrast all that with the article below from the Atlantic today describing two or three recent polls that show the American public is overwhelmingly against any type of re-opening:

When it comes to polling hard to ignore that no polling showed Trump with much of a chance. I think people are saying what they think pollsters want to hear, but their actions will be quite different. 

Its human nature to be fatigued at this point. Most people outside of NY probably dont know anyone who has gotten sick from this. Hard to get past the idea that this is not a front and center thing to them. 

On that note I did check the official Illinois stats and noted that for my age and ethnic demographic the total deaths is 43, out of a total population of 12 million. You cant stay closed indefinitely and destroy the economy for a decade with numbers like that. Its too far on the other end of the risk/reward spectrum. 

We dont all have the same risk profile. Now comes the part where we go with the best info we have and start to put humpty dumpty back together again, even knowing we will have rolling shutdowns. 

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53 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, I don't want to pick unnecessarily, but I think too often we blame the education system for abject ignorance, when it's just flat something else.

We could have a system that is effectively teaching algebra in 5th grade and calculus in 8th, with advanced civics and constitutional law in 6th grade and you'd still have a passel of morons if things outside the classroom are not addressed.

Also, I can't prove it exactly, but I think a lot of countries that supposedly have better educational systems manage to weed out the abject morons so they aren't tested for comparison purposes (via "vocational" things and the like, not that vocational education is without merit or solely for the stupid).

I call it laziness and the inability to apply critical or analytical thinking.  There is a serious lack of intellectual curiosity.  You can see that in the workplace as well.  There are a lot of people who blindly follow a process and do not know what to do when there is an exception.  It fucking drives me bonkers.

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

 

Now contrast all that with the article below from the Atlantic today describing two or three recent polls that show the American public is overwhelmingly against any type of re-opening:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/what-if-they-reopened-country-and-no-one-came/611182/

 

 

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8b7e272d-7810-4c89-94dd-17a171790932/note/a144011d-70a1-4768-8849-218ecc98f61c.#page=1

Thought this was interesting:

5/3/20
The worst is behind us:  31%
The worst is happening now:  30%
The worst is yet to come:  38%

 

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2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

that may be the dumbest thing in the history of dumbest things.    yes, the intent is that if you own prorperty and collect rent you are rich as shit and should be fine for 6 months.

You haven't heard. Landlords like me have the resources of the Fed to become de facto lenders of last resort and also bear the weight of being an insurer against business interruption. It's a fucking joke and idiots on city councils like the one in Seattle have no clue what burdens they are placing on landlords. I have allowed deferred rent for May and June. On July 1 come hell or high water full rent is going to be demanded. Thank God I don't have properties in Seattle and other cities with an anti-business agenda.  

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Well, that, and we have current data from places in the US -- meatpacking plants, prisons, etc., where functionally everyone 1) is positive, and 2) is asymptomatic.  That points pretty strongly to asymptomatic people spreading the disease.
True, but how much viral load could you be shedding if you have no symptoms? You'd have to be one of those spit talkers.
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26 minutes ago, bullzak said:

When it comes to polling hard to ignore that no polling showed Trump with much of a chance. I think people are saying what they think pollsters want to hear, but their actions will be quite different. 

Its human nature to be fatigued at this point. Most people outside of NY probably dont know anyone who has gotten sick from this. Hard to get past the idea that this is not a front and center thing to them. 

On that note I did check the official Illinois stats and noted that for my age and ethnic demographic the total deaths is 43, out of a total population of 12 million. You cant stay closed indefinitely and destroy the economy for a decade with numbers like that. Its too far on the other end of the risk/reward spectrum. 

We dont all have the same risk profile. Now comes the part where we go with the best info we have and start to put humpty dumpty back together again, even knowing we will have rolling shutdowns. 

I view political and public opinion polls as being completely bogus. I always imagine it as:

Media: Hey, we need a poll to gauge the popularity of a particular candidate or national issue. Get Bill, the intern, to go downstairs and stand out in front of the station, which is in a downtown large urban area, and ask a couple of hundred people their opinion on the subject. Bill, is a very hip dude, he learned to "read" people while in his Public Speaking 101 class in college. He knows the narrative that his bosses want carried, so he stereotypes the people he asks the questions, and gets the desired results. The answer will be completely different coming from a New Yorker who may have known 2-3 victims, than George. George lives in Somervell County, Texas. There is not a single confirmed case in his county, and no deaths.

I'm sure it is not that blatant, but I have to think it is something along those lines, with how often polls are completely wrong. 

CHIEF

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41 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

If you're buying what that video is selling, I've got some oceanfront property in Arizona for you.

That's funny because that is actually the name of a song, it's kind of an older song though.  And from what I understand you can't really get that kind of real estate.   You can in California though, and if you've ever been out there, it's pretty close to Arizona.

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Just now, DaysOff said:
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:
Well, that, and we have current data from places in the US -- meatpacking plants, prisons, etc., where functionally everyone 1) is positive, and 2) is asymptomatic.  That points pretty strongly to asymptomatic people spreading the disease.

True, but how much viral load could you be shedding if you have no symptoms? You'd have to be one of those spit talkers.

Well, it seems like they're shedding enough to infect their co-workers/fellow prisoners.  So, there's that.

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2 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

You haven't heard. Landlords like me have the resources of the Fed to become de facto lenders of last resort and also bear the weight of being an insurer against business interruption. It's a fucking joke and idiots on city councils like the one in Seattle have no clue what burdens they are placing on landlords. I have allowed deferred rent for May and June. On July 1 come hell or high water full rent is going to be demanded. Thank God I don't have properties in Seattle and other cities with an anti-business agenda.  

well OBVIOUSLY you must be a racist and rich as shit land baron smoking $100 bills.  sorry thems the breaks.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, it seems like they're shedding enough to infect their co-workers/fellow prisoners.  So, there's that.

Not arguing that the article is right or wrong, but how exactly would you know from an infection/transmission standpoint who is spreading - the infected (with symptoms that do in fact materialize) and those that are asymptomatic.  What is the control group?  How do you account for lag time with a virus that gestates over 14+ days? 

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6 minutes ago, DaysOff said:
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:
Well, that, and we have current data from places in the US -- meatpacking plants, prisons, etc., where functionally everyone 1) is positive, and 2) is asymptomatic.  That points pretty strongly to asymptomatic people spreading the disease.

True, but how much viral load could you be shedding if you have no symptoms? You'd have to be one of those spit talkers.

I still don't understand how South Austin's mom hasn't been targeted for all viral load testing.

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Here is another example of the economic toll that this pandemic is taking on the medical community.
Michigan Medicine is one of the biggest and best medical centers in the state, it is part of the University of Michigan.
Aside from treating many COVID patients, they have shut down many departments in their hospital, and as a result they are furloughing 1,400 employees and delaying a planned almost $1 billion expansion. 
This is going to playout throughout the country in many medical systems, going on 2 months with very limited ER visits (excluding COVID), elective surgery, well care visists, etc.; the only department that really wasn't affect is labor & delivery since you can't really put that on hold. Although typically they now only allow the pregnant mother and 1 visitor.

https://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/2020/05/michigan-medicine-to-furlough-1400-employees-delays-construction-on-new-hospital.html

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12 minutes ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

You haven't heard. Landlords like me have the resources of the Fed to become de facto lenders of last resort and also bear the weight of being an insurer against business interruption. It's a fucking joke and idiots on city councils like the one in Seattle have no clue what burdens they are placing on landlords. I have allowed deferred rent for May and June. On July 1 come hell or high water full rent is going to be demanded. Thank God I don't have properties in Seattle and other cities with an anti-business agenda.  

If you received a reprieve on your mortgage payments, you should be passing that onto tenants.  That is LARGELY not happening.  Unfortunately, states are going to have to step in.  What WOULD make sense is that as long as there are mandates (and let's be clear, there is going to be some sort of shit going on for the rest of 2020 at a minimum), then there needs to be meaningful rules on mortgage relief and rent relief of all businesses and individuals. 

 

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9 minutes ago, SameSame said:

That's funny because that is actually the name of a song, it's kind of an older song though.  And from what I understand you can't really get that kind of real estate.   You can in California though, and if you've ever been out there, it's pretty close to Arizona.

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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Well this is fucking wild if true.  The implications are staggering...scientists wrong about the asymptomatic spread?  The link claims the results were rushed.  To be fair, The study having serious flaws simply means it didn't prove or disprove anything, not that the opposite of its conclusion is therefore true.....but if this isn't the case (transmission issues), then it changes everything.

If true, we royally fucked this up....

First, this is GREAT news if confirmed that the original study was wrong.

However... what a colossal f'n cascade of unbelievably overreaching horrible decisions were made before the record was set straight. There's no undoing it.

The New England Journal of Medicine, one of the preeminent medical journals in the world, published a paper where the investigator was sloppy enough to not even have interviewed the primary patient.  So the paper that supports the #1 fear (asymptomatic transmission) turns out to effectively be fabricated.

"Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, says calling a case asymptomatic without talking to the person is problematic. "In retrospect, it sounds like this was a poor choice," he says."

That article is from 64 days ago.  That's like 15 years in CV time.

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5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I call it laziness and the inability to apply critical or analytical thinking.  There is a serious lack of intellectual curiosity.  You can see that in the workplace as well.  There are a lot of people who blindly follow a process and do not know what to do when there is an exception.  It fucking drives me bonkers.

From my long-ago government studies I recall that "peasant class" theory.  Don't remember all that much about it but IIRC it's kind of an offshoot of social darwinism and might have been part of the underpinnings of Fascism.  It effectively says we cannot have things like direct democracy or personal choice for a large segment of the population because they can only understand being led, following directions, and doing what they're told.  They are incapable of making unique choices or unscripted decisions, and the prospect of doing so overwhelms them and makes them so uncomfortable that they become angry and violent.  When given unencumbered freedom of choice they revolt and replace that system with a government led by strongmen who will tell them what to do and how to think.  

For some reason that keeps popping into my head of late.  Probably worth going back and remembering better at this point.

 

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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Not arguing that the article is right or wrong, but how exactly would you know from an infection/transmission standpoint who is spreading - the infected (with symptoms that do in fact materialize) and those that are asymptomatic.  What is the control group?  How do you account for lag time with a virus that gestates over 14+ days? 

Oh, I'm not pointing to the meat plants and prisons as statistically vetted "studies."  But the reports are 1) that hundreds tested positive, and 2) all or almost all are asymptomatic.  That sure points to asymptomatic spread.  Yes, it's anecdotal, but it's a strong pointer in that direction, that's all I'm saying.  And SK has data on asymptomatic spread as well.

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13 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

I view political and public opinion polls as being completely bogus. I always imagine it as:

Media: Hey, we need a poll to gauge the popularity of a particular candidate or national issue. Get Bill, the intern, to go downstairs and stand out in front of the station, which is in a downtown large urban area, and ask a couple of hundred people their opinion on the subject. Bill, is a very hip dude, he learned to "read" people while in his Public Speaking 101 class in college. He knows the narrative that his bosses want carried, so he stereotypes the people he asks the questions, and gets the desired results. The answer will be completely different coming from a New Yorker who may have known 2-3 victims, than George. George lives in Somervell County, Texas. There is not a single confirmed case in his county, and no deaths.

I'm sure it is not that blatant, but I have to think it is something along those lines, with how often polls are completely wrong. 

CHIEF

Some are, some aren't.  Sometimes those end up more accurate than the scientific ones.

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

If you received a reprieve on your mortgage payments, you should be passing that onto tenants.  That is LARGELY not happening.  Unfortunately, states are going to have to step in.  What WOULD make sense is that as long as there are mandates (and let's be clear, there is going to be some sort of shit going on for the rest of 2020 at a minimum), then there needs to be meaningful rules on mortgage relief and rent relief of all businesses and individuals. 

 

Agreed.  It should be systematic and consistent, because these are trickle-up consequences.  Don't pay people?  They can't pay rent.  If they don't pay rent, landowner can't pay mortgage and taxes.  

A simple plan would be to allow extension of mortgages for the period of rent relief.  But then, that impacts cash going into banks...so maybe the feds have to bridge that.  But it should be a systematic approach.

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4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

If you received a reprieve on your mortgage payments, you should be passing that onto tenants.  That is LARGELY not happening.  Unfortunately, states are going to have to step in.  What WOULD make sense is that as long as there are mandates (and let's be clear, there is going to be some sort of shit going on for the rest of 2020 at a minimum), then there needs to be meaningful rules on mortgage relief and rent relief of all businesses and individuals. 

 

do you have any sort of link to this BOLD fact/assumption that this is actually happening and where?  And are they forgiving the mortgage payments or simply delaying collection?  Is there interest incurred?  A balloon payment due?

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Agreed.  It should be systematic and consistent, because these are trickle-up consequences.  Don't pay people?  They can't pay rent.  If they don't pay rent, landowner can't pay mortgage and taxes.  

A simple plan would be to allow extension of mortgages for the period of rent relief.  But then, that impacts cash going into banks...so maybe the feds have to bridge that.  But it should be a systematic approach.

Absolutely.  New York State has proposed something in the assembly, but so far NOTHING has come of it.  I do not get a sense of urgency from them at all.  

 

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2 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

This is very cool 

 

 

I'm not one for ooh-ing or aw-ing about most things but the ability and balls to fly in close formation is bad ass.  And I think of these flyovers as much more impressive than they tricks at air shows. The air show performances are awesome but I assume very well choreographed with timing.  These fly-overs are unique flight paths over extended  periods of time.

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1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

do you have any sort of link to this BOLD fact/assumption that this is actually happening and where?  And are they forgiving the mortgage payments or simply delaying collection?  Is there interest incurred?  A balloon payment due?

I know some have been able to get a mortgage forbearance.  That was part of the CARES act for all federally backed loans under any program.  It should be clear, that should be extended TO ALL mortgages not just federally backed ones.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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