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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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7 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Thanks.. I meant if active as in yesterday if there was 100 new cases and 50 recoveries, it’d add just 50 to the active real time total, not the span of the last 3.5 months

Yeah, I'm not going to try to backtrace the math on counting recoveries versus new cases by day. Whatever that calculation is results in an increase of 12,000 "active cases" over a roughly two-week period in Texas. In other words, on June 1st, there were 21,000 people who were confirmed as being actively sick on that day and, yesterday, there were 33,000 people actively sick with it.

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Yeah, I'm not going to try to backtrace the math on counting recoveries versus new cases by day. Whatever that calculation is results in an increase of 12,000 "active cases" over a roughly two-week period in Texas. In other words, on June 1st, there were 21,000 people who were confirmed as being actively sick on that day and, yesterday, there were 33,000 people actively sick with it.

Gotcha..thought there’d be a number on a Texas department of health dashboard or something
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Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Gotcha..thought there’d be a number on a Texas department of health dashboard or something

Yeah, it's almost like our state is actively avoiding collecting and aggregating COVID numbers for some reason... Can't justify a shutdown if you don't have data, right?

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6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Gotcha..thought there’d be a number on a Texas department of health dashboard or something

The Texas DSHS dashboard only gives a one day snapshot on recoveries (60,600), but you can download a spreadsheet to track active cases by county. So, all one can really say at this point is that about two-thirds of all confirmed cases in the state have recovered so far but the number of active cases is increasing.

I think you posted the Minnesota one sometime in the past and I recall it being a lot better than ours.

 

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2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Here's the thing, if we do nothing to mitigate the spread, it's not going to slow down.  The hopes on summer doing that have been proven false. 

I certainly don't think that's definitive and personally don't think that's accurate with respect to summer.  It seems like most experts absolutely believe that the weather has helped slow the spread.  I think your odds of contacting it in an ordinary setting in the summer heat is pretty low.   But warm weather isn't going to help anyone inside a business or a bar.    

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The Texas DSHS dashboard only gives a one day snapshot on recoveries (60,600), but you can download a spreadsheet to track active cases by county. So, all one can really say at this point is that about two-thirds of all confirmed cases in the state have recovered so far but the number of active cases is increasing.
I think you posted the Minnesota one sometime in the past and I recall it being a lot better than ours.
 

Ya but we have way less people, heh.

I guess the one I go off of is from the MN sub Reddit who has a running graph he updates daily with just the basics. The ND one is really dumbed down and includes daily Active numbers which is like a whopping 335 for the state. MN is at like 2550 or something. Would be interesting to know for a state like Texas, probably around 17-20k if you’ve gone up 12k since June 1
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2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Here's the thing, if we do nothing to mitigate the spread, it's not going to slow down.  The hopes on summer doing that have been proven false.  Make people wear masks for a month to see if it slows back down.  If people can't be bothered to do that, write them a ticket just like what would happen if they got caught not wearing a seat belt.

I told this exact thing to my wife yesterday when we were watching the Abbott conference.  Give people a ticket if they're in a store without a mask on.  My wife snorted air out of her nose, not that she disagreed with me, but the fact that this would never happen in this state.  Hell, at this point, I'm surprised we even have seat belt laws in Texas.  I lean more towards conservatism and low interference from the government but enough is enough.  Abbott needs to grow a set of balls and actually do something.

Went to Costco on Monday and they've made it to where you can't get in to the store without a mask.  Perfect.  Meanwhile, half the people walking around HEB don't have a mask on, acting like it's business as usual. 

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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

 

I certainly don't think that's definitive and personally don't think that's accurate with respect to summer.  It seems like most experts absolutely believe that the weather has helped slow the spread.  I think your odds of contacting it in an ordinary setting in the summer heat is pretty low.   But warm weather isn't going to help anyone inside a business or a bar.    

We spend most of the summer indoors.  It hasn't slowed down and it's not gonna slow down.  We can't wish this thing away.

Edited by kevwun
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So now we need to dedicate law enforcement to patrolling stores and handing out tickets? That does not sound like the best use of their time to me. By my experience the majority of people in every store I've been in are wearing masks. (Yet we are at higher levels than when no one was wearing masks) How are you going to convince people to put all this effort into mandating masks across the state and find some way of enforcement. I'm fine for leaving it to the individual establishments to require a mask and ask people to leave if they don't comply.

If there are a few people not wearing masks in Home Depot do that really significantly increase someone else's chance of contracting COVID (that is taking the precautions of masks and hand washing) to the point that we should be thinking about mandating it?

We have slowed the spread, flattened the curve and our hospitals are not being overrun. Are some of you really in favor of shutting everything down again?

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Your last sentence was true before Memorial Day.  It's not true anymore.  If you don't want to shutdown, wearing a mask is probably our best hope.  I will never understand what is so terrible about wearing a mask.  They help prevent people from getting sick and dying.  Is that too much to ask of Texans?

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"So, let's see if we have this straight: People will not face penalties for refusing to wear a mask because everyone should be free to make his or her own choices. Business owners, however, can be fined for not demanding that individuals wear masks in their establishments because...."

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15 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Your last sentence was true before Memorial Day.  It's not true anymore.  If you don't want to shutdown, wearing a mask is probably our best hope.  I will never understand what is so terrible about wearing a mask.  They help prevent people from getting sick and dying.  Is that too much to ask of Texans?

Have you ever left your house without a mask? I know I have and either had to go back and grab it or alter my plans on what I was going to pickup. I don't think it's a huge issue (although my cloth mask is starting to get a bit hot) but maybe we could get more disposable masks placed out for use. There will always be some folks that refuse for various reasons but that's always going to exist. 

But if we all wear masks will that really have that much more of an impact? Not sold on that... I do it because I'm asked to do my part.

Edited by ZB'Tejas
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2 hours ago, bolverk said:

The Texas DSHS dashboard only gives a one day snapshot on recoveries (60,600), but you can download a spreadsheet to track active cases by county. So, all one can really say at this point is that about two-thirds of all confirmed cases in the state have recovered so far but the number of active cases is increasing.

One caveat, I think they are using math to estimate recovered cases, rather than actually determining how many have recovered.  Something to keep in mind when you look at the state numbers...

The math is something like:

Take total cases and subtract out the dead.  Because they aren't recovered, they are dead.
From the remainder, guess than 20% or so probably went to the hospital.  Guess than 80% did not.
For the 20%, count them as recovered if their case is more than 28 days old.  For the 80%, count them as recovered if their cases is more than 14 days old.

The recovery estimate is always going to be a function of the total case numbers minus deaths, with some time delay.

 

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s not just Texans. There are probably some commonalities if investigated, but state of residence is not one of them. 

Oh, no doubt.  I just truly don't fucking get it.  "Hey, here's a really easy thing to do that can both help protect your fellow human beings and slow the spread of the disease enough so that we don't have to cripple the economy."  And a huge chunk of us say "NO WAY, FUCK YOU!!!!"  The American iteration of the human species is not a great one.

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2 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Have you ever left your house without a mask? I know I have and either had to go back and grab it or alter my plans on what I was going to pickup. I don't think it's a huge issue (although my cloth mask is starting to get a bit hot) but maybe we could get more disposable masks placed out for use. There will always be some folks that refuse for various reasons but that's always going to exist. 

But if we all wear masks will that really have that much more of an impact? Not sold on that... I do it because I'm asked to do my part.

I keep them in my truck, so I always have them.  Yes, wearing a makes a big difference.  It's been proven they help slow down the spread of airborne viruses. 

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So now we need to dedicate law enforcement to patrolling stores and handing out tickets? That does not sound like the best use of their time to me. By my experience the majority of people in every store I've been in are wearing masks. (Yet we are at higher levels than when no one was wearing masks) How are you going to convince people to put all this effort into mandating masks across the state and find some way of enforcement. I'm fine for leaving it to the individual establishments to require a mask and ask people to leave if they don't comply.
If there are a few people not wearing masks in Home Depot do that really significantly increase someone else's chance of contracting COVID (that is taking the precautions of masks and hand washing) to the point that we should be thinking about mandating it?
We have slowed the spread, flattened the curve and our hospitals are not being overrun. Are some of you really in favor of shutting everything down again?


Man you started out okay but by the end of it, this became a phenominally stupid post.

COVID is spreading at its fastest rate in Texas and for the first time hospitals are really seeing a surge in patients.

No one wants to shut anything down. I don't know how you get there without being intentionally disengenous. That's the entire point of wanting masks required in public.

Fuck I cannot get over what a dumb post this is.
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What would you guess the percentage of people wearing masks in Austin is? Even conservatively I'd say it's 70-80% which is pretty good. Tack on that extra 20% and would the virus levels have gone down since Memorial Day? IDK  My point is that overall I think Austin is doing a good job following advice... we will always have a few people that don't follow every order.

Speed limits are set to save lives too.

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What would you guess the percentage of people wearing masks in Austin is? Even conservatively I'd say it's 70-80% which is pretty good. Tack on that extra 20% and would the virus levels have gone down since Memorial Day? IDK  My point is that overall I think Austin is doing a good job following advice... we will always have a few people that don't follow every order.
Speed limits are set to save lives too.
In an HEB or sonething sure. In the highest risk areas like bars, restaurants, gyms, churches, etc? Y'all will have to tell me because I haven't been to any of the above but I think we know the answer based on available reporting/observations.
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5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

COVID is spreading at its fastest rate in Texas and for the first time hospitals are really seeing a surge in patients.
 

 

Do we have any indication on why Texas is being more impacted than anywhere else? I can't imagine Texas is doing anything different than many of the other states where business have started opening up. Has Texas opened at a faster rate that every other state?

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Your last sentence was true before Memorial Day.  It's not true anymore.  If you don't want to shutdown, wearing a mask is probably our best hope.  I will never understand what is so terrible about wearing a mask.  They help prevent people from getting sick and dying.  Is that too much to ask of Texans?

Despite what we’d like to believe, many Texans are complete and utter pieces of shit.
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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hays County. Will update when I see the changes. 

 

Good job Oklahoma.  JFC.

https://www.courthousenews.com/oklahoma-mayor-retracts-face-covering-order-following-threats/

 

Quote

STILLWATER, Okla. (CN) — After businesses reported verbal and physical threats from customers, including one involving a firearm, an Oklahoma mayor hastily retracted an order late Friday requiring residents to wear face coverings.

Stillwater Mayor Will Joyce made face coverings optional after the threats, according to the amended emergency proclamation. He explained that he originally required businesses to tell their customers to wear the face coverings on their premises to avoid making “a blanket rule for everyone.” He now says the move “was not the right approach for” his city.

will-joyce-website.jpg?resize=302%2C423 Mayor Will Joyce of Stillwater, Oklahoma.

“I knew there would be some objections, but I did not expect physical confrontations with employees and threatening phone calls to city hall,” Joyce tweeted. “I hate that our businesses and their employees had to deal with abuse today, and I apologize for putting them in that position.”

City Manager Norman McNickle said the threats happened within “three short hours” of the original order being in effect, as the city began reopening certain stores and restaurants as shelter-in-place orders for Covid-19 began to expire across the state.

“Many of those with objections cite the mistaken belief the requirement is unconstitutional, and under their theory, one cannot be forced to wear a mask,” McNickle said in a statement. “No law or court supports this view. In fact, a recent Federal lawsuit against [the city of] Guthrie’s face covering order was fully dismissed by the United States District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma.”

McNickle said it is “further distressing” that people are putting others at risk exercising their perceived rights.

“It is further well settled that a business is private property to which people do not have unfettered right of entry,” he said. “Just as a business has the right to enforce ‘No Shoes, No Shirt, No Service,’ the business can require a face covering as a condition to entry.”

Mayor Joyce said that he is “not the kind of person who backs down from bullies” but refused to send businesses to “fight the battle for me.”

“To the people who resort to threats and intimidation when asked to take a simple step to protect your community: shame on you,” he tweeted. “Our freedom as Americans comes with responsibilities, too.”

Stillwater is approximately 70 miles north of Oklahoma City. It is the home of Oklahoma State University.

Oklahoma has tallied 3,748 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 230 deaths, according to the state’s Department of Health.

 

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Do we have any indication on why Texas is being more impacted than anywhere else? I can't imagine Texas is doing anything different than many of the other states where business have started opening up. Has Texas opened at a faster rate that every other state?

The governor made a point to make sure Texas was known for leading the reopening charge. So yes, we reopened faster than most. Certainly most populated states. That wasn't an issue at first given people's behavior patterns lagged the change in policy, and the higher risk businesses remained closed or heavily restricted. 

Now you see people regressing and bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. all running essentially normally. It's hard to say how much of what we're seeing is fueled by effectively lifting any serious restrictions and what's fueled by large spreading events like memorial day or the George Floyd protests. Probably a blend of both. I'm not sure we'll ever be able to tell because they can feed off each other to a degree.

 

Edit: I'd also add the lack of a serious contact tracing/isolation effort as a factor in the spread.

 

 

 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

So now we need to dedicate law enforcement to patrolling stores and handing out tickets? That does not sound like the best use of their time to me. By my experience the majority of people in every store I've been in are wearing masks. (Yet we are at higher levels than when no one was wearing masks) How are you going to convince people to put all this effort into mandating masks across the state and find some way of enforcement. I'm fine for leaving it to the individual establishments to require a mask and ask people to leave if they don't comply.

If there are a few people not wearing masks in Home Depot do that really significantly increase someone else's chance of contracting COVID (that is taking the precautions of masks and hand washing) to the point that we should be thinking about mandating it?

We have slowed the spread, flattened the curve and our hospitals are not being overrun. Are some of you really in favor of shutting everything down again?

I'm completely against shutting down again. Doesn't matter if there are no cases or a million cases in Texas. I think we've already seen the extensive damage that does and it would be worse the second time around. 

That said, I'm 100% for mandating masks in public statewide. It's a simple, effective way to reduce spread that will harm no one. 

Maybe if law enforcement focuses on ticketing mask violations they'll shoot fewer people. Or maybe more. But it needs to be done. 

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I'm completely against shutting down again. Doesn't matter if there are no cases or a million cases in Texas. I think we've already seen the extensive damage that does and it would be worse the second time around. 
That said, I'm 100% for mandating masks in public statewide. It's a simple, effective way to reduce spread that will harm no one. 
Maybe if law enforcement focuses on ticketing mask violations they'll shoot fewer people. Or maybe more. But it needs to be done. 
Right? Like what cops are doing now is helpful.
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Texas is not becoming more impacted than other places. Our death rate and hospitalization is still low especially per capita. Yes we have seen a spike in cases and hospital admittance. Only one county is using more than 10% of hospital beds for Covid. I would say with a state as large and diverse as ours there are probably huge differences with how businesses are following orders. 

Most restaurants are taking every precaution they can right now that I’ve been in. I wouldn’t step in a chain restaurant or fast food restaurant in regular times but I definitely wouldn’t go now. You also would not catch me at a Golds or 24 Hour type gym. 
 

Places I’ve been have been over the top with precautionary measures.

Jack Allen’s, Sway, The Grove, Salt Traders, VY’s, Matt’s all have distance between tables, no shared condiments, throw away menus or no menus just use your QR code.

Orange Theory only 12 people in class 8 ft apart and no one uses same station.

I think that is all we can ask for those type establishments. People should wear masks in stores and when not eating. 
 

Large gatherings and people having to work are probably leading to these higher numbers. That includes patio bars packed because no restrictions on those.

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1 minute ago, workswithseed said:

I remember you asking why Mexicans don't wear seat belts. It's probably the same answer.

Actually, on the mexicans and seatbelts/child seats, I had a more complex answer.  It is NOT a "fuck you nobody tells me what to do."  It's a stewpot of ignorance (including cultural ignorance) and even underneath that, a deep thread speaking to how much some people, particularly very poor and marginalized people, value their own lives.

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59 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The governor made a point to make sure Texas was known for leading the reopening charge. So yes, we reopened faster than most. Certainly most populated states. That wasn't an issue at first given people's behavior patterns lagged the change in policy, and the higher risk businesses remained closed or heavily restricted. 

Now you see people regressing and bars, restaurants, gyms, etc. all running essentially normally. It's hard to say how much of what we're seeing is fueled by effectively lifting any serious restrictions and what's fueled by large spreading events like memorial day or the George Floyd protests. Probably a blend of both. I'm not sure we'll ever be able to tell because they can feed off each other to a degree.

 

Edit: I'd also add the lack of a serious contact tracing/isolation effort as a factor in the spread.

 

 

 

 

 

You're really hit or miss lately.  You state that you haven't been to any bars/retaurants/retail/gyms and yet you report that they're "all running essentially normally."  How on Earth would you know?

I have been to restaurants and breweries and I can assure you that they're not anywhere close to "running essentially normally."  They are distancing tables, they are wearing face coverings, they are requiring patrons to wear face coverings to enter and when leaving their tables.  Many of them are only seating in outside areas and all of them have tables spaced widely apart.  I can guarantee you I've been safer and less likely to contract COVID at the restaurants and breweries I've attended, than any of those tens of thousands of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder immediately next to strangers at the protests.  I'm not knocking those people, they did what they felt was right, but what I witnessed on video and photos of those protests was FAR more likely to spread the virus than any of the reopening businesses I've patronized in the past 4 weeks.

 

Then your Edit/add was completely off base.  Contact tracing IS ocurring.  They tracked me down and recommended I self-isolate for 14 days.  They didn't send cops by my house to make sure I was doing this, I don't think it's possible or even legal to do something like that.  But they traced me, they contacted me, they checked back on me after the 14-day period, verified that I'd tested negative.  If I'd tested positive then I'm certain they would have begun tracing all of MY contacts during the exposure period, because that's their job and it's what they're told to do.  I'm not certain what more you want?  Police surveillance on anyone that's a COVID suspect to ensure they're self-quarantining?  I just have no idea what else you think is possible?

We're all frustrated, I get it,  and I'm certainly AOK with wearing face masks when entering businesses.  I'd be fine with wearing them outdoors in heavily congested areas, too, except that's not a situation I'll put myself in, regardless.

But this talking about situations that you actually DON'T know about-- I don't get it?  What point are you trying to make?  You don't have any observations to prove it out, so why even comment on it?

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You're really hit or miss lately.  You state that you haven't been to any bars/retaurants/retail/gyms and yet you report that they're "all running essentially normally."  How on Earth would you know?
I have been to restaurants and breweries and I can assure you that they're not anywhere close to "running essentially normally."  They are distancing tables, they are wearing face coverings, they are requiring patrons to wear face coverings to enter and when leaving their tables.  Many of them are only seating in outside areas and all of them have tables spaced widely apart.  I can guarantee you I've been safer and less likely to contract COVID at the restaurants and breweries I've attended, than any of those tens of thousands of people standing shoulder-to-shoulder immediately next to strangers at the protests.  I'm not knocking those people, they did what they felt was right, but what I witnessed on video and photos of those protests was FAR more likely to spread the virus than any of the reopening businesses I've patronized in the past 4 weeks.
 
Then your Edit/add was completely off base.  Contact tracing IS ocurring.  They tracked me down and recommended I self-isolate for 14 days.  They didn't send cops by my house to make sure I was doing this, I don't think it's possible or even legal to do something like that.  But they traced me, they contacted me, they checked back on me after the 14-day period, verified that I'd tested negative.  If I'd tested positive then I'm certain they would have begun tracing all of MY contacts during the exposure period, because that's their job and it's what they're told to do.  I'm not certain what more you want?  Police surveillance on anyone that's a COVID suspect to ensure they're self-quarantining?  I just have no idea what else you think is possible?
We're all frustrated, I get it,  and I'm certainly AOK with wearing face masks when entering businesses.  I'd be fine with wearing them outdoors in heavily congested areas, too, except that's not a situation I'll put myself in, regardless.
But this talking about situations that you actually DON'T know about-- I don't get it?  What point are you trying to make?  You don't have any observations to prove it out, so why even comment on it?


I'll start by conceding that's a fair call out. I've been to pickup food at places that are plainly not doing the things you describe, but those were both outside of Austin. I haven't been anywhere in town for dine in and I obviously jumped the gun with that statement. I'll try to refine.

It's fair to say things are essentially normal in terms of capacity (not as a business, which I very much empathize with - owners and staff are in an impossible situation - but in terms of crowding). A 75 percent cap on a restaurant doesn't mean much when we're talking about a closed indoor space where inherently no one is wearing a mask because they're there to use their mouths. Same for bars - not to mention it's widely documented that crowded nightlife areas like 6th street or the square in San Marcos are doing fuck all. To be honest, I think the bars are a much bigger issue. The crowd there literally came out to be close to other people.

Masks for staff can protect patrons from those specific staff members to an extent, they don't effectively protect staff from patrons, and it means nothing for transmission between customers. Outdoor patios are less restricted and all you need to do is drive by to see those are essentially business as usual when it comes to capacity. Outside helps but it doesn't magically eliminate the potential spread when you've got 20, 50, however many people out there. Definitely not for staff, who can then become vectors. Thats already happened in Galveston where there are several cases among service industry staff at popular restaurants.

I don't need to go back to the gym to know no one is wearing a mask while working out. We know that's not gonna happen just based on human behavior. Gyms can sanitize all the equipment they want but that doesn't do anything about the primary mode of transmission, which is then amplified because people are exercising.

I am glad you heard from a contact tracer. I'd inagine Austin is on the right side of the bell curve in that regard. Still, we know the state is well behind on its stated hiring goals, we aren't utilizing available technology, and there's a lawsuit by state legislators to stop it outright. I'm not gonna bite on the melodramatic police bit, suffice it to say we could be doing a better job, and the state has not in fact met its own criteria.

I didn't mention retail but it's essentially the same thing as gyms without the huffing and puffing. It comes down to voluntary mask use by customers. That's obviously hit or miss. Seems okay in Austin, though certainly declining. It's fine if that's kept up. But again, Austin isn't the whole state. We'll see what happens with these counties trying to circumvent the governor's order.
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Kind of a tangent, but does anyone have a link or tip where to get decent quality masks? On Amazon there are tons of listings for masks, but the reviews generally are very poor (most common complaint being that the elastic breaks and/or the masks are much too small). Most of the "good" reviews are obvious plants (poor English, odd phrasing, etc.)

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

So now we need to dedicate law enforcement to patrolling stores and handing out tickets? That does not sound like the best use of their time to me.

 

I think it's a fantastic use of their time. If they're writing tickets for masks, they can't be shooting minorities and dogs. 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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