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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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12 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:
Odd. I don’t see anyone blaming Texas Bars for Los Angeles spikes. 
https://deadline.com/2020/06/los-angeles-county-now-highest-number-coronavirus-cases-in-u-s-1202970308/
 
I think people would like some intellectual honesty and common sense instead of agenda driven media narratives. 

 

What point do you feel you've made here? California is struggling with the virus. What do you feel that proves?

Edited by BradInATX
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Wow, the county in the U.S. that has the most people...also has the most Covid-19 cases.  Well, I for one...am over-fucking-whelmed.  

Los Angeles County contains more people than the 5 New York Boroughs...combined.  How do some of y'all maintain jobs that require rudimentary maths?

 

Edited by Lobo
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I’m beyond impressed that the Chinese where able to engineer a virus so advanced that it knows to infect people at the beach but not at the protests. :)    I try to tell all my peers here we have 40 trillion people in LA. Of course we are gonna have some numbers.  

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20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

What point do you feel you've made here? California is struggling with the virus. What do you feel that proves?

He made a very valid point. If protests had no effect on the surge of cases we’re seeing then there should be zero restrictions on any outdoor activity.

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So I read the full-text of the study on correlation of virus spread to protests. It was really well done. A few key points from the meat of it:

- They did it with enough data to account for secondary spread (IE someone catches it at the protest then gives it to their coworker or family or friends). Prior studies have shown that the average time to see secondary spread in data is 14 days, and this study had a time horizon of 21+ days. And they showed zero correlation between the protests and increased secondary spread. So the point that @Druggist thinks he made is absolutely wrong, had he just read the actual paper (which is funny because he was chiding everyone else for not reading it)

- The general conclusion was done with the whole data set, but they actually dove into individual cities (both with and without protests) and what their post-protest spread was vs. what expected spread (based on general trends, demographics, etc.) would be. They found that no city (with one exception) had abnormal or above-expected Covid spread after the protests. So it's not even a thing where the protests in a few cities created a lot of spread but when grouped together with the rest of the cities, it evened out. Only one city out of 300 or so they analyzed had above-expected spread after the protests. That city was Phoenix, BTW, which I have no explanation for (the study made no attempt to dive into that one or explain).

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8 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

He made a very valid point. If protests had no effect on the surge of cases we’re seeing then there should be zero restrictions on any outdoor activity.

His post was about bars. Want to try again?

I'll understand if you're confusing him with Johnny Sack who is making the football game argument. I too get my terrible one-note Facebook talking point posters who try to hijack every productive discussion into a "BUT CALIFORNIA BUT NEW YORK" political shit throwing contest confused with each other.

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5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Of course it is. It's literally accounted for in the study. The people that stayed home because of the protests would have spread the virus as well. Did you actually read the paper? (nope).

I agree, that is what I wrote above. Thanks for confirming my point.

Of course there was spread at the protests.  They acknowledge the high probably in the paper.  The headline makes it appear as if COVID spread did not occur to any measurable degree as a result of these huge crowds. That is a dangerous narrative to put out there.

They looked at net cases in whole communities, not spread within distinct populations.  They never tried to figure out if spread occurred within the population that was actively protesting.   They put a narrative out there that insinuates the virus didn’t spread to a significant degree at these protests without actually presenting data of that.  Then they buried the reasoning for the lack of spread deep in the article.  That is starting with a conclusion and working backwards.  It is factually correct and intellectually dishonest.  I fear it will cost some lives as morons receive the message that large gatherings are fine.  

That same study and data could have been framed as social distancing works so well that it mitigated the spread that likely occurred during the protests.  That would have been factually true based on the data they collected and would have been a far more helpful message to put out there.

The virus isn’t woke.  It didn’t decide to sit these gatherings out because Black Lives Matter  (Narrator: They matter).  Virus don’t give a fuck.

That is all I’ve got on this subject. 


 

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1 minute ago, Druggist said:

They put a narrative out there that insinuates the virus didn’t spread to a significant degree at these protests

 

That's not at all what they said. In fact, there are pages upon pages at the beginning of the "Findings" section that discuss that they believe based on their data that there was significant virus spread at the protests.

Read the paper.

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6 hours ago, Lobo said:

So protests may have helped the virus to spread?  But just the BLM protestors right?  Not the folks a few weeks before protesting for their freedoms to get back out in the economy?  

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html

Quote

Higher restaurant spending appears to be linked to a faster spread of the coronavirus, according to a JPMorgan study.

Analyst Jesse Edgerton analyzed data from 30 million Chase credit and debit cardholders and from Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker. He found that increased restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

He also said restaurant spending was the strongest predictor across all categories of card spending.

Quote

Edgerton said in-person restaurant spending was “particularly predictive.”

The NPD Group found that transactions for the week ended June 14 were still improving at full-service chain restaurants in Arizona, California and Florida, even as those states reported spikes in new cases. 

 

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Look, lots of industries have 4 Americans in close quarters with one another, indoors, with no masks on, spewing spit particles at one another, for 90 minutes at a time.  

How the fuck else do you guys roll at Hobby Lobby?  

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I don’t think we will know for years the true death rates to make accurate comparisons.  Like most pandemics.  There is no way states count deaths the same way.  Much less countries.  

Especially poor countries.  They don’t have the resources to determine cause of deaths.  I’m one hundred percent sure covid deaths are being undercounted in the third world.  
 

 

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31 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

That's not at all what they said. In fact, there are pages upon pages at the beginning of the "Findings" section that discuss that they believe based on their data that there was significant virus spread at the protests.

Read the paper.

What you said, bolded above. What it is being misconstrued to say, in the very first Tweet no less quoted below. And yes, I’ve read the entire document. 
 

Here’s the study concluding that protests have had no impact on coronavirus spread.
 

That is a false statement/tweet - they very clearly did. 
 

People keep pointing to the protests to try to say “see muh team didn’t spread it!  It was those bumpkins/beach goers/farmers market shoppers.”  It’s always about what the other team did, not what I did, and no one will discuss it honestly.  Points that people make get intentionally twisted or misrepresented, comment about the other side and what they are doing is worse, and then name calling. 

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/we-have-to-act-hhs-secretary-azar-warns-window-closing-to-halt-coronavirus-spike.html

Quote

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar warned Sunday that time was running out for the U.S. to curb the spread of coronavirus as cases rise across the country, particularly in the American South and West. 

“We’ve got the tools to do this,” Azar told NBC’s Meet The Press. “But the window is closing, we have to act, and people as individuals have to act responsibility. We need to social distance, we need to wear our face coverings where we can’t social distance, particularly in these hot zones.” 

Quote

However, former CDC Director Tom Frieden told Fox News Sunday that the rise is attributable to community transmission in states that reopened too quickly.  

“As a doctor, a scientist, an epidemiologist, I can tell you with 100% certainty that in most states where you’re seeing an increase, it is a real increase,” Frieden said. “It is not more tests, it is more spread of the virus.” 

Current Health and Human Services head, former CDC saying lock this shit down now.

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Just now, UT_OB1 said:

What you said, bolded above. What it is being misconstrued to say, in the very first Tweet no less quoted below. And yes, I’ve read the entire document. 
 

Here’s the study concluding that protests have had no impact on coronavirus spread.
 

That is a false statement/tweet - they very clearly did. 
 

People keep pointing to the protests to try to say “see muh team didn’t spread it!  It was those bumpkins/beach goers/farmers market shoppers.”  It’s always about what the other team did, not what I did, and no one will discuss it honestly.  Points that people make get intentionally twisted or misrepresented, comment about the other side and what they are doing is worse, and then name calling. 

 

 

Can you find an example of anyone on this thread in the last month pointing to the beach or farmers markets as Coronavirus hot spots? I don't recall any. I think most everyone on this thread with maybe a few exceptions have realized that the primary drivers of spread are bars, private gatherings, and a lack of mask wearing (in most situations, particularly indoor).

It seems like you're fighting an invisible boogeyman that's got you all riled up.

Regarding this:

Here’s the study concluding that protests have had no impact on coronavirus spread.
 

That is a false statement/tweet - they very clearly did.

It's not a false statement at all. There was no discernable difference in pre and post-protest Covid spread. I know where you're trying to go. The protests did create additional spread within the attendees of the protests. Absolutely a bunch of people at the protests got Covid, where they wouldn't have had they not attended. But the offset of those additional cases by other people distancing (due to the protests). There are two different angles that are both true here:

- The protesters themselves engaged in behavior that increased their risk of catching and spreading the virus. Now, whether or not that was justified given the cause is a debate for a totally different thread and probably forum. But, they absolutely did participate in enhanced risk.

- The protests as a whole did not impact CV spread (Except in Phoenix)

 

Let's keep it intellectually honest.

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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

 

Can you find an example of anyone on this thread in the last month pointing to the beach or farmers markets as Coronavirus hot spots? I don't recall any. I think most everyone on this thread with maybe a few exceptions have realized that the primary drivers of spread are bars, private gatherings, and a lack of mask wearing (in most situations, particularly indoor).

It seems like you're fighting an invisible boogeyman that's got you all riled up.

Regarding this:

 

 

Dude, you got a lot more people blocked than even I do if you haven’t seen those words mentioned on most pages (Usually multiple times). Go back to the late April early May part of this thread - constant talk about the idiots on the beach.  I think the 2nd wave thread may have a little less of it, but even it gets bad.   
 

I’m on the same page with the overall effective rate boiling down to increased spread being cancelled out by increased distancing measures. But that isn’t how it is being spun. 

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There were a shitload more non-protesting people out-and-about after the reopening started kicking in, than were protesting, and those people were getting out-and-about every single day, to work, to the store, to restaurants, etc.

Williamson County isn't down to 18 ICU beds because it's a hot bed of BLM activism.

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5 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Dude, you got a lot more people blocked than even I do if you haven’t seen those words mentioned on most pages (Usually multiple times). Go back to the late April early May part of this thread - constant talk about the idiots on the beach.  I think the 2nd wave thread may have a little less of it, but even it gets bad.   
 

I’m on the same page with the overall effective rate boiling down to increased spread being cancelled out by increased distancing measures. But that isn’t how it is being spun. 

I agree that we saw some of that teeth gnashing earlier - which is why in my last post I said "in the last month". I think a lot of people, myself included, were able to change our initial viewpoints (I admit, early on I thought the beach stuff and the spring break stuff was going to be a problem). If there are still people fucking the "everyone on the beach is going to die!" thing then they aren't paying attention.

 

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On 6/25/2020 at 10:03 AM, Iconoclast Texan said:

Agreed. The muh rights and individual autonomy maximalism strain in conservatism is meeting its death. Communal good strain of conservatism is gaining strength. I am partial to Integralism (even though I’m not a Catholic) and common-good constitutionalism espoused by those like Adrian Vermeule 

@BradInATX

Im pretty sure I royally fucked up the multi quote.  I can’t even figure out how to make the first quote below my text here. *sigh*. I’m not even 40 yet. Sorry.  
 

But here are just a quick handful from the past 10 or so days.  I will admit it has slowed down, but with all the different threads it happens a lot, and it gets old.  And it is on both sides  

 

On 6/24/2020 at 10:15 PM, heso said:

One of the more disappointing things I’ve read recently was about how the big grocery store chain up here currently has 30 lawsuits filed against it by people who were forced to leave after refusing to wear a mask due to some health condition that makes wearing a mask difficult or “impossible”. Despite the chain offering curb side pickup. All 30 are represented by the same attorney. 

The masks clearly work. How has our populace become so stupid as to refuse to wear them “because muh freedoms”. 

 

On 6/24/2020 at 10:22 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes, if you have the curve bent then people getting it now is likely better.  We don't have zero cases in Chicago but we have the overall number of new cases well under control.  Nobody in the field is out here being irrational about we have to get this to zero.  Not at all...

Texas and many other states problems are because the hospitals are about to become a total shitshow.  I posted that IL waited a couple weeks longer than what the numbers may have shown because we had a LOT of ICU capacity pretty much the whole time - with the help of our shitty weather and aggressive politicians we did a good job here.  There's no way much of Texas can be having the 'let them get it while the virus is less potent' convo because you guys are having a massive run on ICU beds.  Meaning, even the less severe virus isn't helping because your overall numbers are so high that the system will soon be up shit creek.  

Surly is more educated than most places but the sheer number of people in TX and AZ who were going on and on about a hoax is embarrassing shit.  I have lots of family/friends in AZ too and they were the same damn way.  Muh rights!! NO Masks!!! HOAX

JFC

 

 

On 6/23/2020 at 11:01 AM, Js1 said:

So morons can't blame the protests everywhere else anymore? 

 

On 6/23/2020 at 11:34 AM, Hmbre97 said:

Yep. 

I bet you guys up north aren't fighting the "mAsKs ArE fOr ShEeP" battle like we are down here too.

 

On 6/16/2020 at 9:02 PM, Onboard 2.0 said:

NO NO NO NO. You cannot ask questions that might cast a bad light on those warriors.....  

 

On 6/17/2020 at 9:01 AM, Js1 said:

But then how will some poor business owner rack up a gofundme for not requiring masks bc MUH FREEDOMZ and get cool tweets from Ted and Dan? 


 

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So we can show up to DKR this fall on Saturdays and protest the last 10 years of Texas football?  Can we protest what ou did to us in the early 2000's at the State Fair this October?  How about I protest Jerry Jones' last 25 years as GM of the Cowboys on Sunday this fall? 

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18 minutes ago, Hate said:

So we can show up to DKR this fall on Saturdays and protest the last 10 years of Texas football?  Can we protest what ou did to us in the early 2000's at the State Fair this October?  How about I protest Jerry Jones' last 25 years as GM of the Cowboys on Sunday this fall? 

Free beer at the concession stand!!!!

loot the souvenir shop!!!

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37 minutes ago, Hate said:

So we can show up to DKR this fall on Saturdays and protest the last 10 years of Texas football?  Can we protest what ou did to us in the early 2000's at the State Fair this October?  How about I protest Jerry Jones' last 25 years as GM of the Cowboys on Sunday this fall? 

I've usually gotten to the protest stage, also known as not watching, by the Halloween or so for most of the last ten years. Moving that up two months shouldn't be that hard.

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

Can we protest what ou did to us in the early 2000's at the State Fair this October?  How about I protest Jerry Jones' last 25 years as GM of the Cowboys on Sunday this fall? 

Pretty sure the statute of limitations has run out on that first one.  May still be open on the second.

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11 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

@BradInATX

Im pretty sure I royally fucked up the multi quote.  I can’t even figure out how to make the first quote below my text here. *sigh*. I’m not even 40 yet. Sorry.  
 

But here are just a quick handful from the past 10 or so days.  I will admit it has slowed down, but with all the different threads it happens a lot, and it gets old.  And it is on both sides  

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


Oh I don't disagree with you at all on all of this stuff. I was more asking if you had seen people pearl clutching about the beach or outdoor activities or that type of thing lately. I thought that's where the discussion was at, my mistake if not. 

I'll be the first one to complain that I think it's absurd that for the longest time (and probably starting again soon) Austin had playgrounds closed down to our children but we were free to pack into church, sing loudly, and share wine and crackers.

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Oh I don't disagree with you at all on all of this stuff. I was more asking if you had seen people pearl clutching about the beach or outdoor activities or that type of thing lately. I thought that's where the discussion was at, my mistake if not. 
I'll be the first one to complain that I think it's absurd that for the longest time (and probably starting again soon) Austin had playgrounds closed down to our children but we were free to pack into church, sing loudly, and share wine grape juice and crackers.


Fixed for Baptist and CoC.
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23 hours ago, Lobo said:

I don't know that they aren't.  What I do know is plenty of them are displaying wanton disregard for social distancing and polite mask requests.  They simply aren't following it.  And I don't give a flying fuck what side of the aisle they park their ideology on.  Millions of stupid fucking Texans, exclusive of party affiliation, are not being considerate of their neighbors.  That's all there is to it.  A state that can't shut the fuck about how hospitable and responsible they are are killing their fellow Texans.  It's a goddamn fact of physics.  

Enough Texans, of whatever political stripe, are being fucking dumb right now and infecting other Texans.  It's fucking physics and maths.  It's not hard.  But nope, not our state.  Too fucking difficult.  So here we go again, with more dead relatives.  Thanks guys, can't wait to hear about your gearing up for the upcoming race wars.  Call your dad and tell him what a fucking hero you've been.  Oh wait, he died because we're stupid.  

 

This is the part that I don't understand. I fucking HATE wearing the mask and take it off as soon as I am outside, in my car, or not in a public area. I get it, it sucks but is a minor annoyance for a few minutes to run to the grocery store or wherever to try and limit the spread so I can enjoy normal life again quicker really that big of an ask for some people? I sure as hell would like to go to a football game, restaurant, bar, etc without having to wear a mask for the foreseeable future. 

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I am not seeing this widespread non-mask usage indoors.  I was in South Texas at the ranch for almost two months.  People in Pearsall and Dilley were all wearing masks indoors.  Also went to a buddies' ranch in Freer to visit.  You could not walk into a gas station without a mask.

Houston -- everywhere I go it was 90% masks indoors.  Now it is 100 percent.

I guess my experiences are anecdotal.  Because I have noticed masks everywhere.

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50 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I am not seeing this widespread non-mask usage indoors.  I was in South Texas at the ranch for almost two months.  People in Pearsall and Dilley were all wearing masks indoors.  Also went to a buddies' ranch in Freer to visit.  You could not walk into a gas station without a mask.

Houston -- everywhere I go it was 90% masks indoors.  Now it is 100 percent.

I guess my experiences are anecdotal.  Because I have noticed masks everywhere.

My experience conforms. In Jackson Hole almost everyone was wearing masks when indoors. Quite a few people wearing masks outside as well. I took that mask off the moment I was clear of the pleabs. 

Edited by Telegraph_it
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It's strange how the masks follow Johnny Sack around despite basically every single human in Texas having had a completely different experience. 

When you get outside of the city, mask usage drops significantly. Marble Falls Wal Mart = 10% mask usage. Me and one other young lady who didn't look ugly enough to be a local. Kyle HEB was somewhere around 50% last time I was there. I've been all around Central Texas (golf is one of the few things I've been doing outside of the house) and once you get outside of Austin mask usage is 50% or less just about everywhere. Went camping at Spicewood a month or so ago, same thing at two gas stations.

That may change now that we're spiking and the governor is urging it. But the phenomenon that Sack has been posting about for months now where the entire world seems to mask up when he enters is quite odd and a little bit concerning from a mental health perspective.

Edited by BradInATX
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Ventured out this weekend in Oak Cliff to the Fiesta on Jefferson and the Lowe's in Cockrell Hill.   The demographics here definitely tilt to low income Hispanics.  100% masks at both places.   From what I can tell on local social media, the tide has turned and people are being shamed for not wearing masks or social distancing.   

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Usage was about 80% in our rural/suburban Kroger yesterday evening.  (Far away from Austin, BTW, for deniers like BradkareninTX.)  Which should have been higher since they have signs at the entrance stating that you must have a mask on to enter, but we get a lot of partiers at the lake.  

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NYC - 100% mask compliance inside.  You will get yelled at for not having it, potentially breaking out into a fight.  Outside, I would say it is about 75%.  Yes, there are probably more people not wearing them outside, but that is what I am seeing.  If I can pull it down while outside, I do becuase it is fucking hard to breathe in it with the heat and humidity.  But if I am on a crowded sidewalk, I keep it on.  

Digging the outdoor dining and drinking.  Do keep it off if I am sitting at a table doing that.  

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

NYC - 100% mask compliance inside.  You will get yelled at for not having it, potentially breaking out into a fight.  Outside, I would say it is about 75%.  Yes, there are probably more people not wearing them outside, but that is what I am seeing.  If I can pull it down while outside, I do becuase it is fucking hard to breathe in it with the heat and humidity.  But if I am on a crowded sidewalk, I keep it on.  

Digging the outdoor dining and drinking.  Do keep it off if I am sitting at a table doing that.  

I don't go anywhere that is crowded outdoors, but if I did I would do what you do.

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1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

My experience conforms. In Jackson Hole almost everyone was wearing masks when indoors. Quite a few people wearing masks outside as well. I took that mask off the moment I was clear of the pleabs. 

Teton county had some issues back before the shutdown so they are probably a little more sensitive. 
Not 1 in 10 here is wearing a mask yet, even with cases going from 2 to like 25 this past week. No hospitalizations yet as most positives are young and healthy (oilfield workers are bars). 

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37 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I don't go anywhere that is crowded outdoors, but if I did I would do what you do.

If it's crowded, announce loudly "please, everybody maintain social distancing - I've heard I could catch covid again, and believe me, you don't want to go through that experience - I've only been out of the hospital for a week, and don't want to ever go back there!"

The crowd will shrink fast.

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6 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Well, thanks a lot assholes. Due to the hotspots, NYC will advance to stage 3, but that no longer includes opening back up dining rooms. Sigh.

I prefer to read this as NY learning from our mistakes, and you're welcome.

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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