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Just now, dcar00 said:

give it 2 more weeks.

Another explanation is that if you assume the death/case ratio is more or less the same over time within a nation/region (absent mass introduction of some effective treatment), it would suggest a whole lot more infections were occurring back in March than were tested, like maybe x30.  Seems hard to think that learning on the fly to better adapt vent settings accounts for the difference lack of deaths today.

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12 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Another explanation is that if you assume the death/case ratio is more or less the same over time within a nation/region (absent mass introduction of some effective treatment), it would suggest a whole lot more infections were occurring back in March than were tested, like maybe x30.  Seems hard to think that learning on the fly to better adapt vent settings accounts for the difference lack of deaths today.

sure, possibly.  could be some over-reliance on covid as the cause of death also during the first weeks.  we'll never really know.  still think the IFR is around .2 to .3 but closer to .3

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It's probably a combination of a number of factors. Maybe one of the docs can chime in, but I seem to recall that early on there was a lot more reliance on early use of ventilators, which the medical community later found out did more harm than good. Also, I think I remember Chitown mentioning that putting patients in prone positioning did wonders. If those above statements are true, we can at least say that better treatments are playing a role in better outcomes.

Another could be linked to the affected population, i.e., the olds. I know that NY/NJ/WA were the places where it hit nursing care facilities hard in the initial outbreak. The same thing happened, at least, in France (I follow the news there due to having French friends and living there years ago). Belgium, too. Seemingly, what helped Germany out on mortalities was that it was young people catching it early on.

Maybe some "herd immunity" happening? Sure, I suppose that's possible as well. Moreover, it could've been much more widespread.

The point is that in all the states/countries that were hit with the European strain at the outset, the deaths to recorded cases ratio was much, much less favorable.

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3 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Maybe the first time around the virus got in nursing homes and killed a very high % of people there. Now there’s no more highly vulnerable population left to infect.

That's certainly part of it.  Burnout happens when there's still plenty of available targets, but not enough available targets to sustain active spread.  It appears that there may be far fewer targets available today than we expected in order for covid to keep going and to bridge to a coming winter apocalypse and so on.  An Oregon seroprevalence study out last week found x10 the number of people in OR have positive antibodies with no history of a test than was predicted.  Signs are pointing to this sars-cov-2 hitting a ceiling and collapsing, and it looks to be done in various states in the US and other countries around the globe with no indication yet that it's poised for a major resurgence in those places where an apparent ceiling has been hit (~20k cases/1M pop).  

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3 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

That's certainly part of it.  Burnout happens when there's still plenty of available targets, but not enough available targets to sustain active spread.  It appears that there may be far fewer targets available today than we expected in order for covid to keep going and to bridge to a coming winter apocalypse and so on.  An Oregon seroprevalence study out last week found x10 the number of people in OR have positive antibodies with no history of a test than was predicted.  Signs are pointing to this sars-cov-2 hitting a ceiling and collapsing, and it looks to be done in various states in the US and other countries around the globe with no indication yet that it's poised for a major resurgence in those places where an apparent ceiling has been hit (~20k cases/1M pop).  

 

I'm still skeptical of this claim, because we are seeing places like Spain where it appears we're getting a second wave almost as bad as the first. Beyond that, it's summertime for most of the Western world. There's no way I'm going to allow myself to get optimistic about herd immunity when the thermometer has three digits on it. Let's see what happens in winter. 

I do hope you're right. I really, really hope you're right because I'm sick of this shit.

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2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

I'm still skeptical of this claim, because we are seeing places like Spain where it appears we're getting a second wave almost as bad as the first. Beyond that, it's summertime for most of the Western world. There's no way I'm going to allow myself to get optimistic about herd immunity when the thermometer has three digits on it. Let's see what happens in winter. 

I do hope you're right. I really, really hope you're right because I'm sick of this shit.

Spain will be interesting to follow. I’m expecting deaths to be much lower.  Some of it could be treatment advances. But if the theory holds that the virus is highly contagious, but a large segment of the population has some pre-existing T cell based immunity, then I think most of the highly susceptible people would get dinged in the first big wave. People getting it now would be less prone to getting severe illness. Again, if this new theory has some validity. 
 

Another detail I thought of today that may support the idea of pre-existing immunity via some mechanism other than antibodies  is that at least in SA we’ve seen quite low amounts of morbidity and mortality in healthcare workers.  I can think of less than 10 people I know or heard of through the 4-5 hospitals where I work that contracted it. When you consider the amount of contact that workers have through screening, patient care, or just being in a hospital all day I would’ve expected the exposures and subsequent illness to be much higher than I’ve seen. Then you throw in the lack of adequate PPE that people have droned on about and it’s more striking to me.
 

Could that be due to built up immunity due to previous continuous exposure to coronavirus and other respiratory viruses? Ask any ER nurse and they’ll tell you when you start the job you get sick often, but eventually you have some immunity. School nurses too. Maybe there’s something there. Maybe not.
 

Just something I thought of today walking through a large recovery room with a bunch of nurses wearing plain masks and no face shields and realizing none of them had gotten sick. And they’re around patients coughing all day.

I need to check and see if there have been any specific studies of the incidence in healthcare workers. 
 

Maybe people with exposure to other areas of care like icus @trauma babe or other regions @ChiTownDoc could offer some input on what they’ve seen? 
Maybe even @GreenspointTexas from his bunker?

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2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Spain will be interesting to follow. I’m expecting deaths to be much lower.  Some of it could be treatment advances. But if the theory holds that the virus is highly contagious, but a large segment of the population has some pre-existing T cell based immunity, then I think most of the highly susceptible people would get dinged in the first big wave. People getting it now would be less prone to getting severe illness. Again, if this new theory has some validity. 
 

Another detail I thought of today that may support the idea of pre-existing immunity via some mechanism other than antibodies  is that at least in SA we’ve seen quite low amounts of morbidity and mortality in healthcare workers.  I can think of less than 10 people I know or heard of through the 4-5 hospitals where I work that contracted it. When you consider the amount of contact that workers have through screening, patient care, or just being in a hospital all day I would’ve expected the exposures and subsequent illness to be much higher than I’ve seen. Then you throw in the lack of adequate PPE that people have droned on about and it’s more striking to me.
 

Could that be due to built up immunity due to previous continuous exposure to coronavirus and other respiratory viruses? Ask any ER nurse and they’ll tell you when you start the job you get sick often, but eventually you have some immunity. School nurses too. Maybe there’s something there. Maybe not.
 

Just something I thought of today walking through a large recovery room with a bunch of nurses wearing plain masks and no face shields and realizing none of them had gotten sick. And they’re around patients coughing all day.

I need to check and see if there have been any specific studies of the incidence in healthcare workers. 
 

Maybe people with exposure to other areas of care like icus @trauma babe or other regions @ChiTownDoc could offer some input on what they’ve seen? 
Maybe even @GreenspointTexas from his bunker?

I'm pretty sure ER nurses are immune because they drink enough alcohol to kill anything in their body.

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New additions and recent updates:

•  Cuba’s Finlay Vaccine Institute begins Phase 1/2 trials. Aug. 19

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200810/coronavirus-vaccine-is-on-horizon-thanks-to-key-discovery-by-ut-researchers?UTM_Source=Digital&UTM_Medium=Keywee&UTM_Campaign=Retention&gps-source=ADKWAARU&UTM_Content=P8&kwp_0=1717822&kwp_4=5065003&kwp_1=2151186

A coronavirus vaccine is on the horizon, thanks to a key discovery by UT researchers

By Lara Korte
@lara_korte
Posted Aug 10, 2020 at 12:01 AM   


When the latest coronavirus emerged, Jason McLellan and his team were ready to take action.

McLellan, an associate professor of molecular biosciences at the University of Texas, has been studying respiratory diseases for years. In 2017, McLellan’s postdoctoral researcher Nianshuang Wang identified genetic mutations necessary to stabilize a key component of diseases like MERS, also a coronavirus.

So when Chinese researchers shared the genetic sequence of the new coronavirus on Jan. 10, UT researchers were able to quickly map the virus and inject it with previously-discovered mutations, allowing the researchers to freeze a key protein in a way that would become essential for creating a vaccine.

“Now every pretty much everybody’s using them,” McLellan said. “I think four of the five leading coronavirus vaccines all contain the stabilizing proteins my lab designed.”

Several major companies, bankrolled by billions of dollars from the federal government, are in a race to complete clinical trials for their version of a coronavirus vaccine. It can normally take years for a vaccine to pass through clinical tests before it becomes available to the public, but the process has been expedited over the past several months for coronavirus vaccine candidates from companies including Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and Moderna.

The vaccine candidates are either in or close to the final stages of clinical trials before final authorization by federal drug authorities, and all four are using the UT team’s discovery in their vaccine formulas.

“It’s really exciting,” McLellan said. “It’s like everything I hoped for when I wanted to start doing research.”

The success of the UT team’s discovery hinges on the ability to map and identify what McLellan called the “Achilles’ heel” of the coronavirus — the protein spike. This protein is the part of the virus that fuses onto healthy cells and transmits the infection. Researchers used mutations from earlier research to freeze the protein in its pre-fusion form. By putting a pre-fusion version of the protein into a vaccine, a person’s immune system is trained to identify the virus before it latches onto cells, and create antibodies to fight it off.

“Antibodies need to recognize elements that are on the outside of the virus because they can’t get inside of the virus,” McLellan said. “So the spike is this massive entity on the outside of the virus, and it needs the spike in order to attach and fuse to cells, and if you stop either of those, you stop viral entry.”

The researchers designed the necessary mutations within about a day of receiving the coronavirus genome. The McLellan lab completed the atomic-level structure, and graduate student Daniel Wrapp harvested and purified the spike protein.

Researchers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who are working on the Moderna vaccine, published the results of their Phase 1 trials with mice on Wednesday. The paper reported that the use of McLellan’s stabilized spike protein elicited a positive immune response and prevented coronavirus infections in the lungs and noses of mice.

Moderna began its crucial Phase 3 testing late last month and plans to include 30,000 subjects from 89 centers around the U.S. It could be several months before the results of the study are clear.

A spokesman for the university said researchers so far have not received any payment for the use of their research in vaccine candidates. However, UT and the scientists may eventually see monies from licensing and royalties. The details are still being worked out between the university, the National Institute of Health and the drug companies, the spokesman said.

Meanwhile, the federal government is investing in mass production capabilities, with the hopes that one of the vaccine candidates will be viable by the end of the year. Last month, President Donald Trump announced a $265 million deal to secure manufacturing resources at a plant in College Station for the Novavax vaccine candidate. If Novavax makes it through clinical trials, the majority of its doses will be produced in Texas.

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On 8/18/2020 at 3:01 PM, BradInATX said:

 

I'm still skeptical of this claim, because we are seeing places like Spain where it appears we're getting a second wave almost as bad as the first. Beyond that, it's summertime for most of the Western world. There's no way I'm going to allow myself to get optimistic about herd immunity when the thermometer has three digits on it. Let's see what happens in winter. 

I do hope you're right. I really, really hope you're right because I'm sick of this shit.

It’s been pretty resoundingly disproven that weather has little to no impact on this thing. Look at how hard we got hit in May/June.

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It’s been pretty resoundingly disproven that weather has little to no impact on this thing. Look at how hard we got hit in May/June.
That doesn't really disprove anything though, yeah? For all we know it's worse in winter. We haven't seen it in the cold yet, we have no idea what it'll do.
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24 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
36 minutes ago, Helobious said:
It’s been pretty resoundingly disproven that weather has little to no impact on this thing. Look at how hard we got hit in May/June.

That doesn't really disprove anything though, yeah? For all we know it's worse in winter. We haven't seen it in the cold yet, we have no idea what it'll do.

That’s true. If only there was a different hemisphere who’s winter coincided with our summer, then we could have an idea based on what’s going on in those countries. It’s a pipe dream though. 

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That’s true. If only there was a different hemisphere who’s winter coincided with our summer, then we could have an idea based on what’s going on in those countries. It’s a pipe dream though. 

Like this, where the worst spike was smack in the middle of their winter?

australia.jpg

 

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15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Like this, where the worst spike was smack in the middle of their winter?

australia.jpg

 

Oh yeah smart guy?  New Zealand was in the middle of winter at the same time, care to show me THEIR graph?  OR, what about Antarctica?  It doesn't get any more "wintery" in July than it does there.  What does THEIR graph look like?

 

 

 

:)

 

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5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Oh yeah smart guy?  New Zealand was in the middle of winter at the same time, care to show me THEIR graph?  OR, what about Antarctica?  It doesn't get any more "wintery" in July than it does there.  What does THEIR graph look like?

 

 

 

:)

 

We both know that Big Ice has their dirty hands all over Antarctica's numbers. Can't trust 'em.

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6 hours ago, MillerEP said:

New additions and recent updates:

•  Cuba’s Finlay Vaccine Institute begins Phase 1/2 trials. Aug. 19

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200810/coronavirus-vaccine-is-on-horizon-thanks-to-key-discovery-by-ut-researchers?UTM_Source=Digital&UTM_Medium=Keywee&UTM_Campaign=Retention&gps-source=ADKWAARU&UTM_Content=P8&kwp_0=1717822&kwp_4=5065003&kwp_1=2151186

A coronavirus vaccine is on the horizon, thanks to a key discovery by UT researchers

By Lara Korte
@lara_korte
Posted Aug 10, 2020 at 12:01 AM   


When the latest coronavirus emerged, Jason McLellan and his team were ready to take action.

McLellan, an associate professor of molecular biosciences at the University of Texas, has been studying respiratory diseases for years. In 2017, McLellan’s postdoctoral researcher Nianshuang Wang identified genetic mutations necessary to stabilize a key component of diseases like MERS, also a coronavirus.

So when Chinese researchers shared the genetic sequence of the new coronavirus on Jan. 10, UT researchers were able to quickly map the virus and inject it with previously-discovered mutations, allowing the researchers to freeze a key protein in a way that would become essential for creating a vaccine.

“Now every pretty much everybody’s using them,” McLellan said. “I think four of the five leading coronavirus vaccines all contain the stabilizing proteins my lab designed.”

Several major companies, bankrolled by billions of dollars from the federal government, are in a race to complete clinical trials for their version of a coronavirus vaccine. It can normally take years for a vaccine to pass through clinical tests before it becomes available to the public, but the process has been expedited over the past several months for coronavirus vaccine candidates from companies including Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and Moderna.

The vaccine candidates are either in or close to the final stages of clinical trials before final authorization by federal drug authorities, and all four are using the UT team’s discovery in their vaccine formulas.

“It’s really exciting,” McLellan said. “It’s like everything I hoped for when I wanted to start doing research.”

The success of the UT team’s discovery hinges on the ability to map and identify what McLellan called the “Achilles’ heel” of the coronavirus — the protein spike. This protein is the part of the virus that fuses onto healthy cells and transmits the infection. Researchers used mutations from earlier research to freeze the protein in its pre-fusion form. By putting a pre-fusion version of the protein into a vaccine, a person’s immune system is trained to identify the virus before it latches onto cells, and create antibodies to fight it off.

“Antibodies need to recognize elements that are on the outside of the virus because they can’t get inside of the virus,” McLellan said. “So the spike is this massive entity on the outside of the virus, and it needs the spike in order to attach and fuse to cells, and if you stop either of those, you stop viral entry.”

The researchers designed the necessary mutations within about a day of receiving the coronavirus genome. The McLellan lab completed the atomic-level structure, and graduate student Daniel Wrapp harvested and purified the spike protein.

Researchers at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who are working on the Moderna vaccine, published the results of their Phase 1 trials with mice on Wednesday. The paper reported that the use of McLellan’s stabilized spike protein elicited a positive immune response and prevented coronavirus infections in the lungs and noses of mice.

Moderna began its crucial Phase 3 testing late last month and plans to include 30,000 subjects from 89 centers around the U.S. It could be several months before the results of the study are clear.

A spokesman for the university said researchers so far have not received any payment for the use of their research in vaccine candidates. However, UT and the scientists may eventually see monies from licensing and royalties. The details are still being worked out between the university, the National Institute of Health and the drug companies, the spokesman said.

Meanwhile, the federal government is investing in mass production capabilities, with the hopes that one of the vaccine candidates will be viable by the end of the year. Last month, President Donald Trump announced a $265 million deal to secure manufacturing resources at a plant in College Station for the Novavax vaccine candidate. If Novavax makes it through clinical trials, the majority of its doses will be produced in Texas.

The University of Texas, What Starts Here Saves The World!

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17 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:
5 hours ago, BradInATX said:
That doesn't really disprove anything though, yeah? For all we know it's worse in winter. We haven't seen it in the cold yet, we have no idea what it'll do.

CO got hit hard in March. At the ski areas. Winter might well be worse.

I would think with the adoption of mask wearing indoors it may be helped a bit this winter.  I just imagine those huge lodges at the bottom of each peak being super spreading vectors for this virus. 

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I would think with the adoption of mask wearing indoors it may be helped a bit this winter.  I just imagine those huge lodges at the bottom of each peak being super spreading vectors for this virus. 
Yeah, the lodges and bathrooms are where it spreads, for sure. Haven't decided if we will ski this year. Waiting to see what measures the resort puts in place before i renew my pass.
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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So what’s the goal here?  Are we trying to eliminate it?  Just keep the R around 1 so it’s manageable?

You, sir, have hit upon the key question at this point.

Is the goal managing the virus and "flattening the curve" so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed (which was the stated goal back in the spring)?

Or are we trying to eradicate the virus altogether and if we get positive cases in a business, school, church, whatever, gotta shut it all down until we get a vaccine?

 

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3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

You, sir, have hit upon the key question at this point.

Is the goal managing the virus and "flattening the curve" so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed (which was the stated goal back in the spring)?

Or are we trying to eradicate the virus altogether and if we get positive cases in a business, school, church, whatever, gotta shut it all down until we get a vaccine?

 

You are presenting one extreme as half of a binary choice. 
feels like the only way to keep the R0 low is by mandating mask use because not enough Americans will voluntarily do so in the obvious situations. 

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5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

You, sir, have hit upon the key question at this point.

Is the goal managing the virus and "flattening the curve" so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed (which was the stated goal back in the spring)?

Or are we trying to eradicate the virus altogether and if we get positive cases in a business, school, church, whatever, gotta shut it all down until we get a vaccine?

 

bingo, we did the first so now it is complaining about the second(along with deaths)which everyone knows won't happen until a vaccine.  in fact it appears we and other places took the bullet in March/April such that we helped the northeast.

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New additions and recent updates:

•  Taiwan-based Adimmune enters Phase 1. Aug. 20

 

•  Added oleandrin, a compound produced by a toxic plant. Aug. 21

•  Added ivermectin, a drug typically used against parasitic worms that is being increasingly prescribed in Latin America. Aug. 10

image.png.7647b2c024e2dbdb63fb68616420da71.png

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-drugs-treatments.html

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I know the medical companies are partially in this for the money, but I did not see re: ivermectin on my 2020 bingo card.  Thanks a lot Big Perm...I mean Big Worm

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20 hours ago, BradInATX said:
20 hours ago, Helobious said:
It’s been pretty resoundingly disproven that weather has little to no impact on this thing. Look at how hard we got hit in May/June.

That doesn't really disprove anything though, yeah? For all we know it's worse in winter. We haven't seen it in the cold yet, we have no idea what it'll do.

 February, and March are traditional Winter months.  We have seen what it does in Winter.

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12 hours ago, Message Board User said:

You, sir, have hit upon the key question at this point.

Is the goal managing the virus and "flattening the curve" so that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed (which was the stated goal back in the spring)?

Or are we trying to eradicate the virus altogether and if we get positive cases in a business, school, church, whatever, gotta shut it all down until we get a vaccine?

 

I think that different phases of the pandemic in this country have different goals.

Initial phase: Prevent an overwhelming of the system. Texas largely accomplished this, and we appear to moving from this phase to the next.

Interim phase: Decrease transmission rate through social distancing mask wearing, begin gradual re-entry procedures with ad hoc control measures to snuff out flare ups.

Terminal phase: Vax deployment, viral eradication. Figure what the new normal looks like.

 

There maybe could be another phase between interim and terminal if we can get the R0 down enough or if vax development draws out. 

 

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45 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

 February, and March are traditional Winter months.  We have seen what it does in Winter.

Then we should have taken more serious steps.  We didn't because April was miraculously right around the corner. And now...we are here.

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On 8/20/2020 at 1:42 PM, Helobious said:

That’s true. If only there was a different hemisphere who’s winter coincided with our summer, then we could have an idea based on what’s going on in those countries. It’s a pipe dream though. 

If only that hemisphere had a remotely similar population distribution as well... 

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1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

I've got a pretty good drunk going this Friday afternoon.  Lost a close personal friend and business partner to COVID this week.  Fuck all you deniers and spreaders, fuck you from the bottom of my heart.  Flu my ass, he would not have died if he had caught the flu.  

 

One last time, fuck every one of you mother fuckers who Wuhan Flu'd this, hoax believers, and non-mask wearers.  You've killed loved ones and I hope you catch butthole COVID.

That really sucks for your friend, your loss, and his family, but yeah lots of people die from the flu.

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7 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I've got a pretty good drunk going this Friday afternoon.  Lost a close personal friend and business partner to COVID this week.  Fuck all you deniers and spreaders, fuck you from the bottom of my heart.  Flu my ass, he would not have died if he had caught the flu.  

 

One last time, fuck every one of you mother fuckers who Wuhan Flu'd this, hoax believers, and non-mask wearers.  You've killed loved ones and I hope you catch butthole COVID.

Damn that sucks man.  Sorry to hear that.

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10 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That really sucks for your friend, your loss, and his family, but yeah lots of people die from the flu.

Asshole of the week award goes to Onboard. Congratulations!

 

Sorry for your loss, Hefe. 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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