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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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Thanks for answering. I wondered about the expiration date aspect. Good to know.
As for the budget aspect, why couldn't large hospitals and chains of hospitals include pandemic supplies in their budgets, at least those without and expiration date?
I'm aware that my questions are likely very ignorant.

Not ignorant at all.

We could do what you suggest but it comes down to money.

If the federal or state government gives us some extra funding earmarked for that? Awesome!

But if not, most hospitals like mine just don’t have the funds. What does a 400 bed community non-profit hospital cut?

We’re already operating on basically no margins and reimbursement from Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance go down annually.

And if every single hospital and urgent care and physician office stockpiles the production couldn’t keep up.

And even the stuff that technically doesn’t have expiry dates can go bad in some way - a water leak, bugs, rodents.

And we use every available inch of space already - I don’t know where we could store it all.

It’s really a messy situation.
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8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Republicans (truly the shittiest people) have been given their talking orders.  Here is Peter Navarro on CNN right now saying those pictures of nurses having to use garbage bags is a form os sensationalism. 

Chingao. 

I have a fairly healthy attraction to Brianna Keilar, and the way she absolutely destroyed Navarro only increased my obsession.  Dicks think that guy is a dick.  Gaslighting motherfucker.  Bravo, Brianna.

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6 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:


Not ignorant at all.

We could do what you suggest but it comes down to money.

If the federal or state government gives us some extra funding earmarked for that? Awesome!

But if not, most hospitals like mine just don’t have the funds. What does a 400 bed community non-profit hospital cut?

We’re already operating on basically no margins and reimbursement from Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance go down annually.

And if every single hospital and urgent care and physician office stockpiles the production couldn’t keep up.

And even the stuff that technically doesn’t have expiry dates can go bad in some way - a water leak, bugs, rodents.

And we use every available inch of space already - I don’t know where we could store it all.

It’s really a messy situation.

Maybe you should work for Boeing Regional Medical Center if you want fed money 

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1 minute ago, Bama Chick said:


Not ignorant at all.

We could do what you suggest but it comes down to money.

If the federal or state government gives us some extra funding earmarked for that? Awesome!

But if not, most hospitals like mine just don’t have the funds. What does a 400 bed community non-profit hospital cut?

We’re already operating on basically no margins and reimbursement from Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance go down annually.

And if every single hospital and urgent care and physician office stockpiles the production couldn’t keep up.

And even the stuff that technically doesn’t have expiry dates can go bad in some way - a water leak, bugs, rodents.

And we use every available inch of space already - I don’t know where we could store it all.

It’s really a messy situation.


That all makes perfect sense, which I'm guessing probably brings us back to a lack of timely federal backup for the local health orgs whose resources are outstripped by an event such as this?
 

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9 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:


Not ignorant at all.

We could do what you suggest but it comes down to money.

If the federal or state government gives us some extra funding earmarked for that? Awesome!

But if not, most hospitals like mine just don’t have the funds. What does a 400 bed community non-profit hospital cut?

We’re already operating on basically no margins and reimbursement from Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance go down annually.

And if every single hospital and urgent care and physician office stockpiles the production couldn’t keep up.

And even the stuff that technically doesn’t have expiry dates can go bad in some way - a water leak, bugs, rodents.

And we use every available inch of space already - I don’t know where we could store it all.

It’s really a messy situation.

Thanks, again. So maybe a federally funded chain of warehouses with PPE and other needs for pandemic. As those supplies which expire approach expiration, deliver to needy hospitals or even overseas to disease ridden areas. 

Then the only problem is keeping an eye on who gets the supply contracts so we're not paying triple for supplies that are likely not made to standard.

This pandemic stuff has me spooked. I've read enough accounts that the horror of this one is no longer abstract. I don't want to be writhing on a ventilator because I'm still oxygen deprived and drowning. I don't want that for anyone. 

Who knows how bad the next bug could be?

Edited by RomaVicta
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2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Thanks, again. So maybe a federally funded chain of warehouses with PPE and other needs for pandemic. As those supplies which expire approach expiration, deliver to needy hospitals or even overseas to disease ridden areas. 

Then the only problem is keeping an eye on who gets the supply contracts so we're not paying triple for supplies that are likely not made to standard.

This pandemic stuff has me spooked. I've read enough accounts that the horror of this one is no longer abstract. I don't want to writhing on a ventilator because I'm still oxygen deprived and drowning. I don't want that for anyone. 

Who knows how bad the next bug could be?

And the threat of zoonosis/pandemic/etc... has been trumpeted by many scientists and doctors since HIV/AIDS showed what can happen when we get caught with our pants down at the glory hole.  But it's like we learned nothing.

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just listened to part of this interview in the car, it was pretty rough.  this is just a clip, but someone should find the whole thing (it just happened about 5 min ago)

 

"in '09, when the biden-obama administration had the h1n1..."

it was only a matter of time before this whole thing became biden's fault.

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

just listened to part of this interview in the car, it was pretty rough.  this is just a clip, but someone should find the whole thing (it just happened about 5 min ago)

 

"in '09, when the biden-obama administration had the h1n1..."

it was only a matter of time before this whole thing became biden's fault.

I can't imagine why I'd want to listen to any more of Navarro's bullshit than that. 

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Had a spare hour early this morning, so I was curious to analyze and compare COVID impact on states and how they voted in 2016. 

First, I calculated each state's overall infection rate and compared it to national infection rate.   Overall the highly infected states, defined by higher than country average, are low in electoral votes (97 to 441), and Dems had 73 of those EVs from 2016.   NY drives up the country average so most states fall below the average.

However when you look at which states are quickly getting worse than the national average by looking at the increases over the last 3 full days, 354 EVs are higher than the average. The GOP won 278 and Dems 76 of those 354 in 2016.

Caveat: Since the infected rates are so low, and by all accounts under-reported, the results could quickly be impacted by seemingly small changes.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Had a spare hour early this morning, so I was curious to analyze and compare COVID impact on states and how they voted in 2016. 

First, I calculated each state's overall infection rate and compared it to national infection rate.   Overall the highly infected states, defined by higher than country average, are low in electoral votes (97 to 441), and Dems had 73 of those EVs from 2016.   NY drives up the country average so most states fall below the average.

However when you look at which states are quickly getting worse than the national average by looking at the increases over the last 3 full days, 354 EVs are higher than the average. The GOP won 278 and Dems 76 in 2016.

Caveat: Since the infected rates are so low, and by all accounts under-reported, the results could quickly be impacted by seemingly small changes.

it's coming soon for the rural states (some doc on cnn was literally just saying this).  it was obviously gonna hit the cities first and hardest.  and we all know how the cities vote.

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6 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

This being a fake video would be so on brand for you.  And since the letters on the sign above his head don’t look to be Chinese, the chatter that is audible doesn’t sound Chinese, two of the three people we see are a white dude and someone with blondish hair, and it’s being posted from some random twitter bot, I’m going to guess this isn’t even a video of China.

I’m hesitant to step in here, but I’m going to anyway. I won’t speak for Zork but I didn’t read into his post anything other than there are disinformation campaigns ongoing surrounding this virus. Lots of actors could be involved primed to take advantage whether Russia (as was proposed a while back) China Israel, even the US. Governments going to do what they do and that is something many do. 
 

I do try and ask questions though, not in the “just asking questions” troll mentality but because hearing from other perspectives adds to my information base even if it just as simple as “No, that’s just not quite what you think it is. It is more likely X.”

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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's coming soon for the rural states (some doc on cnn was literally just saying this).  it was obviously gonna hit the cities first and hardest.  and we all know how the cities vote.

Yup. Rural America is about to be assblasted. The utter lack of rural hospitals and qualified practitioners will break the communities that aren't taking this seriously.

Mississippi for example. 

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10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

it's coming soon for the rural states (some doc on cnn was literally just saying this).  it was obviously gonna hit the cities first and hardest.  and we all know how the cities vote.

 

4 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Yup. Rural America is about to be assblasted. The utter lack of rural hospitals and qualified practitioners will break the communities that aren't taking this seriously.

Mississippi for example. 

Hence why Abbott's stance that he won't do anything state-wide is so unreasonable. He has  had the opportunity to protect small towns by locking them down. Locking down large cities are much more difficult. Yes, his voters in rural Texas would have been pissed off but are they going to switch the Dem party over it?

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You know what would be really fucking useful right now? Some state and federal regulations on who gets bailed out being made public. If your actions (or inaction) as a business owner are at odds with public safety, you should be held accountable. Instead, we are going to allow Dan fucking Covert to put his employee's lives in danger, and in turn the general populace, then we'll cut him a big ass check for the inconvenience. Then, back to business as usual.
And, frankly, that's not the free market at work. That's corporate welfare at it's worst. Your point is right on, they don't need a full staff. They need, at minimum, the brain power of message board user Nice Guy Eddie to adapt and attempt to survive. But fuck it, we'll be bailed out anyway, right? 

Actually they could switch to a concierge repair platform and keep some staff working with every other bay in their shop. But well that makes too much sense.
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1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

Subjects typically do drop out of studies and that was accounted for in the write-up.  Those drop-outs were not used for statistical analysis.  It was a small sample size overall and not controlled.  But to get a statistically significant result with a small sample size, you need a fairly robust treatment effect.  Small differences in outcomes that are statistically significant require comparatively larger N subjects.  A Type I error is more likely in the former, but this is more acceptable when the risk of treating is relatively low while the risk of doing nothing is high.

p-values in this (and most) context(s) are fools good.  We need precision around the point estimate and generalizability.  The study design is flawed. At a minimum the results should be robust to treating the drop-outs as failures. We need much larger sample size. New York, Chicago, Washington, etc. should provide more than sufficient cases to enroll in a proper RCT.  There should be preliminary impressions being developed by the ID docs aready, and if they are seeing a signal we should have a proper interim efficacy analysis that can inform next steps.  Meanwhile the EMA is trying to get folks to register all interventional or observations studies taking place in europe, and make out transparent public disclosure of the results ASAP.  We will have sufficient data very soon.  People, including the Orange Man, need to fucking chill.  

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5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

Hence why Abbott's stance that he won't do anything state-wide is so unreasonable. He has  had the opportunity to protect small towns by locking them down. Locking down large cities are much more difficult. Yes, his voters in rural Texas would have been pissed off but are they going to switch the Dem party over it?

Had a call with a client (both of us WFH) this morning in Mt. Vernon and she was appalled by the blase attitudes by her neighbors about this whole mess and she went off on a rant about how they were all brain-washed by "certain media outlets" into believing this is no big deal. But, of course, that's a town that actively recruited and hired Art Fucking Briles to be their head coach, so no surprise there.

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1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

But it’s a rather large issue that the drop outs were excluded almost entirely because their outcomes were poor.  That completely undermines the data purportedly showing positive outcomes in the treatment group.  All this study shows is that counting only positive outcomes leads to optimistic results.  

This really is a significant flaw. Intent to treat analysis prevents this problem. And we can back of the envelope those results.  As also mentioned in the link previously and in prior discussions here, the reporting of load, and the baseline viral load among those with a bl appears to meaningfully differ among groups.  Two huge red flags that only further solidify the position that we need to slow roll until we have more data. 

Edited by Anastasis
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54 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I have a fairly healthy attraction to Brianna Keilar, and the way she absolutely destroyed Navarro only increased my obsession.  Dicks think that guy is a dick.  Gaslighting motherfucker.  Bravo, Brianna.

link? Always nice to see shitbags being called out.

edit: nvmind, sorry, should have kept scrolling down.

Edited by achooloco
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26 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

Yup. Rural America is about to be assblasted. The utter lack of rural hospitals and qualified practitioners will break the communities that aren't taking this seriously.

Mississippi for example. 

And Montana

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45 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

just listened to part of this interview in the car, it was pretty rough.  this is just a clip, but someone should find the whole thing (it just happened about 5 min ago)

 

"in '09, when the biden-obama administration had the h1n1..."

it was only a matter of time before this whole thing became biden's fault.

Fucking scumbag.  Good for her for shutting that down.

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Seattle resident here. Our gov Jay Inslee just had a press conference.

I'm going to try and find a recording of it and i'll add if I find it.

Notes so far, but I joined it partway through. Thought this might be of interest and a good change of pace.

- currently not overloaded, but trending to be over capacity and we will need ventilators AND doctors.

-Asking for retired and fresh out of school personnel to join the work force.

- Sourcing ventilators, PPE, etc is troubling. Vendors are asking well above normal prices. Is reaching out to other countries including china. A federal strong hand to drive supply and regulate cost would have a hugely positive impact

- just like everybody else, praised the administration Trump and Pence, for their open communication with the state. Having "good conversations"

- When asked for how those conversations go, he visibly had to pause and just say they are going well and we want to keep that communication going. Sure looks like he wants to call Trump a numpty but can't cause he knows he'll get cut off.

-When asked if he gave recommendations to Trump, he declined to get specific but suggested they are similar to what he's telling the state right now, which has been this is a long way from over and to continue to take this very seriously. It will take time to flatten the curve and get through it. Don't travel, stay in your neighborhood. Stay at home. limit the spread of this both from a person to person standpoint but also geographically to help with supply logistics.

-Clarity on a testing rule. We have federal provided test kits on hand, but they can't be processed by commercial non federal labs. UW is standing by wanting and able to process tests and is able to handle a large amount, but aren't legally able to. This has been brought up to Pence.

- Indicated we will maintain policies until we are positive that relaxing policies will not result in a resurgence of the virus. This will by nature take weeks... Pretty sure he wants to say it will be over a month but is hesitating to outright contradict the president cause he'll get butthurt.

I'm glad to live in an area where people are taking this seriously both locally and at local govt level. 

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14 minutes ago, cam4mav said:

Seattle resident here. Our gov Jay Inslee just had a press conference.

I'm going to try and find a recording of it and i'll add if I find it.

Notes so far, but I joined it partway through. Thought this might be of interest and a good change of pace.

- currently not overloaded, but trending to be over capacity and we will need ventilators AND doctors.

-Asking for retired and fresh out of school personnel to join the work force.

- Sourcing ventilators, PPE, etc is troubling. Vendors are asking well above normal prices. Is reaching out to other countries including china. A federal strong hand to drive supply and regulate cost would have a hugely positive impact

- just like everybody else, praised the administration Trump and Pence, for their open communication with the state. Having "good conversations"

- When asked for how those conversations go, he visibly had to pause and just say they are going well and we want to keep that communication going. Sure looks like he wants to call Trump a numpty but can't cause he knows he'll get cut off.

-When asked if he gave recommendations to Trump, he declined to get specific but suggested they are similar to what he's telling the state right now, which has been this is a long way from over and to continue to take this very seriously. It will take time to flatten the curve and get through it. Don't travel, stay in your neighborhood. Stay at home. limit the spread of this both from a person to person standpoint but also geographically to help with supply logistics.

-Clarity on a testing rule. We have federal provided test kits on hand, but they can't be processed by commercial non federal labs. UW is standing by wanting and able to process tests and is able to handle a large amount, but aren't legally able to. This has been brought up to Pence.

- Indicated we will maintain policies until we are positive that relaxing policies will not result in a resurgence of the virus. This will by nature take weeks... Pretty sure he wants to say it will be over a month but is hesitating to outright contradict the president cause he'll get butthurt.

I'm glad to live in an area where people are taking this seriously both locally and at local govt level. 

trump blackmailing governors for praise is fucking infuriating.   trump deserves a really painful Covid death

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Can't say it's blackmail necessarily, can't say it isn't either, but the fact that a governor has to play politics when addressing his own state during a health crisis because the potus is such a sensitive pussy is fucking shameful.

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1 minute ago, cam4mav said:

Can't say it's blackmail necessarily, can't say it isn't either, but the fact that a governor has to play politics when addressing his own state during a health crisis because the potus is such a sensitive pussy is fucking shameful.

Cuomo was doing that yesterday.  I'm 100% expecting when the crisis has passed for some revisionist history on this.

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27 minutes ago, cam4mav said:

 

-Clarity on a testing rule. We have federal provided test kits on hand, but they can't be processed by commercial non federal labs. UW is standing by wanting and able to process tests and is able to handle a large amount, but aren't legally able to. This has been brought up to Pence.

I'm glad to live in an area where people are taking this seriously both locally and at local govt level. 

What's the legal holdup?

I'm in NJ and our home office is in Manhattan.  We have a surprising number of Trump supporters but even they are taking this seriously. 

Edited by Bullneck
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he made it sound like the test they got from Fed, so I'm assuming the first batch of CDC long swab tests, are legally required to be processed by Fed at CDC centers.

UW is able to analyze those test kits now. But there is red tape preventing that. 

I really want a reporter to grill Pence about that at todays presser. How in the world can a piece of red tape like that exists when we are MONTHS into a health pandemic. 

 

edit - that's the first i heard about it, i'm sure someone knows more about what the hold ups have been.

Edited by cam4mav
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6 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

What's the legal holdup?

I'm in NJ and our home office is in Manhattan.  We have a surprising number of Trump supporters but even they are taking this seriously. 

In NJ also.  Gov. Murphy just said he would not revisit issue of school closures until April 17th at the very earliest.  His language was very clearly refuting Trump's nonsense, but he clearly didn't want to say outright his disagreement.

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Denton ISD has extended school closure.

March 26, 2020 – In support of the “Stay at Home” Order issued by Denton County Judge Andy Eads, the following school districts in Denton County announced they have extended districtwide closure through Sunday, April 19.

Students, parents and staff of the following districts are urged by their leaders to remain vigilant in their efforts to stay healthy and stay at home.

  • Aubrey ISD
  • Argyle ISD
  • Denton ISD
  • Krum ISD
  • Lake Dallas ISD
  • Lewisville ISD
  • Little Elm ISD
  • Pilot Point ISD
  • Ponder ISD
  • Sanger ISD

Schools and offices in these districts are scheduled to reopen on Monday, April 20. Administrative teams in each district will continue to evaluate the recommendations of the Denton County Public Health (DCPH) department as well as the Center for Disease Control (CDC) to determine whether a longer closure beyond April 19 will be necessary.

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Trump obviously knows local leadership (governors, country judges, mayors) will override his directive to cut restrictions, which will allow him to blame further economic destruction on them.  It helps that most of the current hotspots are blue.  Smart politics but also evil.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Quick question on the drug Trump keeps touting.  My Trumpkin friends keep touting it as some wonder drug and this will be over by next week and Trump will get credit for saving all of our eternal souls.  The medical professionals I see seem less enthused.

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Quick question on the drug Trump keeps touting.  My Trumpkin friends keep touting it as some wonder drug and this will be over by next week and Trump will get credit for saving all of our eternal souls.  The medical professionals I see seem less enthused.

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

If Trump says something, the opposite is generally closer to the truth.

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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Quick question on the drug Trump keeps touting.  My Trumpkin friends keep touting it as some wonder drug and this will be over by next week and Trump will get credit for saving all of our eternal souls.  The medical professionals I see seem less enthused.

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

yeah, i don't know who to trust here, the medical professionals that have expertise in the exact thing at hand or the guy that lies all the time.

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6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Quick question on the drug Trump keeps touting.  My Trumpkin friends keep touting it as some wonder drug and this will be over by next week and Trump will get credit for saving all of our eternal souls.  The medical professionals I see seem less enthused.

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

There was some discussion on the drugs a few pages back, and there's a good thread in DT discussing medical aspects, including the pharmaceutical aspect. 

TL:DR - early results are early, and there's not enough data to come to well-founded conclusions. With that said, it seems like dosage level is very important for the drugs. Some trials had subjects taking 400mg/day and some had subjects taking 600mg/day, with the higher dosage showing much better results. But sample size is still teensy tiny 

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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

No, but there seem to be quite a few folks on here that do and many of them are in the DT thread about the medical aspects of COVID-19 so if you get not traction here, try over there.

 

I am torn with respect to the governors having to bow and scrape like Zelensky for their citizens. It was wrong then and it is wrong now but I am afraid that they are making soundbites for the Trump campaign that he will use ad infinitum when this is over. But if they do not comply, more people die. What a horrific position to be in and made worse when anyone who has followed the last 3 years knows the President does not care. It's a lot of perfect phone calls and run arounds and still people will die and he does not care.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Quick question on the drug Trump keeps touting.  My Trumpkin friends keep touting it as some wonder drug and this will be over by next week and Trump will get credit for saving all of our eternal souls.  The medical professionals I see seem less enthused.

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

Executive summary: French goofus published a halfassed study with enormous flaws.  More thorough Chinese study shows little or no therapeutic value. Trump fans reacted by chugging aquarium cleaner.

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13 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Quick question on the drug Trump keeps touting.  My Trumpkin friends keep touting it as some wonder drug and this will be over by next week and Trump will get credit for saving all of our eternal souls.  The medical professionals I see seem less enthused.

Anyone know the story on that drug in layman's terms?

“This miracle cure is based on six subjects, which does not give me a great deal of confidence,” said Hank Greely, a bioethicist at Stanford University, said of hydroxychloroquine. “This study is promising, provocative and worth following-up on, but it is nothing more than that.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-21/trump-pushes-malaria-drug-for-covid-19-but-evidence-is-lacking

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2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:


Not ignorant at all.

We could do what you suggest but it comes down to money.

If the federal or state government gives us some extra funding earmarked for that? Awesome!

But if not, most hospitals like mine just don’t have the funds. What does a 400 bed community non-profit hospital cut?

We’re already operating on basically no margins and reimbursement from Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurance go down annually.

And if every single hospital and urgent care and physician office stockpiles the production couldn’t keep up.

And even the stuff that technically doesn’t have expiry dates can go bad in some way - a water leak, bugs, rodents.

And we use every available inch of space already - I don’t know where we could store it all.

It’s really a messy situation.

Yeah it shouldn't be hospitals storing up for pandemic. It should be the fed. It's the type of thing it's there for when it's not run by a simple monkey with Downs

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5 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

Yeah it shouldn't be hospitals storing up for pandemic. It should be the fed. It's the type of thing it's there for when it's not run by a simple monkey with Downs

Yep. The idea that hospitals should always have the capacity to handle a pandemic is ridiculous.  Scale up absolutely needs to come from the fed gov't.  Firm plans and trigger events need to be established and they need to be followed. We should not be learning as we go on this like we are. 

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