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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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21 minutes ago, markstanco said:
29 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:
Bacterial and typical Viral Pneumonia's aren't nearly as contagious as C19.  And almost nobody with either is walking around and asymptomatic - like the main issue with C19 spread.  So what is your point? 

You are a doc and know way more than me on this. My point? Do you think destruction of a global economy was worth it? For something like the the flu or Pneumonia that happens yearly?

You know that the economy didn't have to be destroyed. If the admin wasn't busy trying to suck China's dick and taking their word/ignoring intel we could have deployed a solution similar to what SK rolled out. They're already back to playing pro baseball and we're in basically the same place as we were in late January.

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3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

What are talking about? I wear the same mask all day. Take it off and count the number of uses. I use them each 5 days. That’s what I’ve always said. 
 

Hospitals do offer fresh N95s to OR staff each day though. 

So you're still reusing it 5 days in a row. 

That's what I thought. 

You're still a dick. Get a new one every fucking day you sleaze 

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So you're still reusing it 5 days in a row. 

That's what I thought. 

You're still a dick. Get a new one every fucking day you sleaze 

I read that to mean he cycles them so that he wears the same one every 6 days.

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9 minutes ago, markstanco said:
18 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:
There’s a fine line.  I agree and want to open up.  None of us knows where that line is.  Reality is blindly opening like Georgia wasn’t smart.  At least Texas seemed somewhat measured.  
And yes I think the total shutdown was worth it.  Zero doubt.  Because a few hundred thousand more would have died if you did nothing.  And the entire hospital system in many major metros works have collapsed.  
 
The question is what now?  When to open?  Your random pneumonia comparison made no sense to me.  That’s all.  
 
 

Read more  

Here is where we agree(I think this is your point) If we would have went life as usual would it be similar death tolls or way more? What is way more? 3 million or 30,000? Is 3 million deaths worth a stay at home? Yes. 30k and destroying an economy? No, sadly it isn't. There actually is a price on things.

It would have been several hundred thousand more.  Million(s) not out of the question. We are talking about doing nothing?  I have zero doubt about my answer.  
 

Edit:  But I agree if ‘only’ 30k more passed it would not have been worth a total shutdown.   

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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You know that the economy didn't have to be destroyed. If the admin wasn't busy trying to suck China's dick and taking their word/ignoring intel we could have deployed a solution similar to what SK rolled out. They're already back to playing pro baseball and we're in basically the same place as we were in late January.
If the current admin is sucking china's dick, why isn't Europe playing soccer? Basketball? Asian pro basketball or baseball? Europe and Asia hang on what trump says i guess?
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47 minutes ago, markstanco said:

What about you last year? Did you wear a mask to protect others from getting Pneumonia? I absolutely know you didn't.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Pneumonia killed almost 30k more this year and infinitely more last year.

Facts are fun arent they?

According to the CDC pneumonia killed 49,157 people in 2017. 

COVID-19 has killed 60,000+ in the last 30 days alone.

And pneumonia isn’t as contagious and so read by asymptotic hosts. What a dumb post.  

 

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17 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Here is where we agree(I think this is your point) If we would have went life as usual would it be similar death tolls or way more? What is way more? 3 million or 30,000? Is 3 million deaths worth a stay at home? Yes. 30k and destroying an economy? No, sadly it isn't. There actually is a price on things.

Fortunately, you, and the dumb ass mouth breathers protesting stay at home orders with long guns and Confederate flags, do not get to name the price.  

Edited by Gatorubet
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8 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


How many in the last 30 days per the cdc? What news channel are you watching?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: this is the actual cdc website. I'll understand if you duck away and not reply.

 

You're looking at the wrong data set.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-death-figures/

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10 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


How many in the last 30 days per the cdc? What news channel are you watching?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: this is the actual cdc website. I'll understand if you duck away and not reply.

This is the latest talking point which seems to be ignoring the words at the bottom of the provisional table:

Quote

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

 Here is the CDC's info for Reuters which includes deaths which have not been coded:

May 4 (Reuters) -

* U.S. CDC - 67,456 TOTAL DEATHS DUE TO NEW CORONAVIRUS AS OF PREVIOUS DAY AT 4 PM ET VERSUS 65,735 DEATHS AS OF PREVIOUS REPORT ON MAY 3

* U.S. CDC REPORTS ITS COUNT OF 1,152,372 CASES OF NEW CORONAVIRUS AS OF PREVIOUS DAY AT 4 PM ET VERSUS PREVIOUS REPORT OF 1,122,486 CASES ON MAY 3 Source Text: (bit.ly/2xybndk)

 

Edit: thanks @Grade of D as in David

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
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? We have the benefit of oceans separating us from those regions and that inherently would have given us an advantage over France and the rest of Europe where they could easily take a train or hop a quick flight from Italy.
.


Speaking of flat earther holy shit. Certainly you realize there were literally thousands of flights a day across continents until the middle of March.

The Titanic is no longer transporting passengers from Europe to America. It sunk years ago and they found new ways to go from country to country.
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18 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I read that to mean he cycles them so that he wears the same one every 6 days.

Correct. 
 

22 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

So you're still reusing it 5 days in a row. 

That's what I thought. 

You're still a dick. Get a new one every fucking day you sleaze 

why are you so hung up on this? It’s your go to issue with me. Like I’m the one who’s saying we have enough. We have a team at my facility, the Retarded Doctors’ Hospital of Texas, that helps unusually dumb physicians such as myself with these kinds of decisions. 

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16 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


How many in the last 30 days per the cdc? What news channel are you watching?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: this is the actual cdc website. I'll understand if you duck away and not reply.

 

There's a reason it's only 30 thousand on the CDC website and 60 thousand plus elsewhere. It's even stated on the website. Figure it out.

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Stanco's failure in logic is killing me.

1. Continues to conflate the flu with Covid-19. You must first reasonably demonstrate that the flu and Covid-19 pose the same threat. You just skip this part and present an argument. This is where you are arguing from a false premise.

2. Thinking in binary terms regarding the economy. There is no off/on switch for the economy. The economy is guided by the invisible hand, basically spontaneous order emerges based on billions of decisions made by economic actors. No one flipped a switch. The economy was going to be hit hard with or without a SiP because millions of economic actors were sure as shit going to react to the virus.

My advice is that you drop premise 1 because you arguement turns into shit immediately. Drop premise 2 as well because it is just sounds ignorant.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


Speaking of flat earther holy shit. Certainly you realize there were literally thousands of flights a day across continents until the middle of March.

The Titanic is no longer transporting passengers from Europe to America. It sunk years ago and they found new ways to go from country to country.

 

So you agree that Trump's travel ban, the only thing he can be credited to have done to help at all with this pandemic was basically useless?

 

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1 hour ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:
Bacterial and typical Viral Pneumonia's aren't nearly as contagious as C19.  And almost nobody with either is walking around and asymptomatic - like the main issue with C19 spread.  So what is your point? 

You are a doc and know way more than me on this. My point? Do you think destruction of a global economy was worth it? For something like the the flu or Pneumonia that happens yearly?

How's your bulletproof business doing?  Sorry for my schadenfreude..

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34 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


How many in the last 30 days per the cdc? What news channel are you watching?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: this is the actual cdc website. I'll understand if you duck away and not reply.

 

A link to the "provisional death" page.  My lord, we went through this with Zork the other day.... It clearly says below.  Smh.

Quote

It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

 

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Texas just opened up a lot more so we'll just sit back and see how this plays out in the following 6 weeks. Counties around Amarillo that haven't been taking it seriously are now having an explosion of cases. Once the rural places get hit their people will drive into the metro areas to soak up resources that are in short supply. This is a dangerous game of Russian roulette we're playing with the health Care system. 

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26 minutes ago, F250 said:

Stanco's failure in logic is killing me.

1. Continues to conflate the flu with Covid-19. You must first reasonably demonstrate that the flu and Covid-19 pose the same threat. You just skip this part and present an argument. This is where you are arguing from a false premise.

2. Thinking in binary terms regarding the economy. There is no off/on switch for the economy. The economy is guided by the invisible hand, basically spontaneous order emerges based on billions of decisions made by economic actors. No one flipped a switch. The economy was going to be hit hard with or without a SiP because millions of economic actors were sure as shit going to react to the virus.

My advice is that you drop premise 1 because you arguement turns into shit immediately. Drop premise 2 as well because it is just sounds ignorant.

 

 

What you have to realize is that markstanco is really simple. Complex concepts befuddle him. He’s demonstrated it on many forums. It’s best to ignore him. 

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20 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Counties around Amarillo that haven't been taking it seriously are now having an explosion of cases.

The meat packing plants are causing that spike. We're going to have to figure out a way to operate them without spreading the virus. They are wet, warm working areas with all kinds of shit floating in the air. 

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6 minutes ago, RPM said:

The meat packing plants are causing that spike. We're going to have to figure out a way to operate them without spreading the virus. They are wet, warm working areas with all kinds of shit floating in the air. 

Why those operations didn’t see that coming is beyond me.  

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9 minutes ago, RPM said:

The meat packing plants are causing that spike. We're going to have to figure out a way to operate them without spreading the virus. They are wet, warm working areas with all kinds of shit floating in the air. 

 

1 minute ago, Upgrayedd said:

Why those operations didn’t see that coming is beyond me.  

We need to keep aggy far away from the meat packing plants unless we also want listeria.

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32 minutes ago, RPM said:

The meat packing plants are causing that spike. We're going to have to figure out a way to operate them without spreading the virus. They are wet, warm working areas with all kinds of shit floating in the air. 

god forbid someone doesn't get their 5 lbs of meat this week. 

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1 hour ago, F250 said:

Stanco's failure in logic is killing me.

1. Continues to conflate the flu with Covid-19. You must first reasonably demonstrate that the flu and Covid-19 pose the same threat. You just skip this part and present an argument. This is where you are arguing from a false premise.

2. Thinking in binary terms regarding the economy. There is no off/on switch for the economy. The economy is guided by the invisible hand, basically spontaneous order emerges based on billions of decisions made by economic actors. No one flipped a switch. The economy was going to be hit hard with or without a SiP because millions of economic actors were sure as shit going to react to the virus.

My advice is that you drop premise 1 because you arguement turns into shit immediately. Drop premise 2 as well because it is just sounds ignorant.

 

 

Item 2 is huge.  The stock market fucking tanked weeks before any shutdowns.  The stock market is not the economy, but many of the assumptions that tanked the stock market also tanked the economy.

Some of the economic effects of shutting down are going to be delayed a couple of months.  So are the epidemiological effects of opening back up.

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1 hour ago, elfenix said:

god forbid someone doesn't get their 5 lbs of meat this week. 

Oh, they'll get it. But it's gonna cost $15/lb for ground chuck when we're down to minimal production. 

Edited by RPM
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1 minute ago, RPM said:

Oh, they'll get it. But it's gonna cost $15/lb for ground chuck when we're down to minimal production. 

per capita US meat consumption (assuming fish didn't fall off) was damn near 240 pounds last year.  we're not producing that this year.  not with packing plants running in reduced capacity or closed.  so, no, we're not going to get our 5 lbs per person per week and it's going to be a national emergency. 

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Peak Prosperity had an interesting video again. He discussed that there is a PRRA polybasic furin cleavage  site in sars cov2 that was likely responsible for a significant amount of the viruses gain of function. He points out that other researchers, including some of the ones denying it is possible, have inserted similar sequences  into viruses. Also that particular sequence is not found in its closest genetic neighbors so there is not an obvious mutation pathway to it. 

So finding out where the PRRA sequence came from could be key to understanding where the virus came from.

 

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Socrates said, "There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance."

Davy Crockett - "Be sure you're right, then go ahead."

"This ain't rocket surgery." - W

It's time to get Socratic up in this mug.  Mitigate seriously for the next 12 months; see how we're doing; adjust plan accordingly.  This daily revamping of everything is an utter waste.  The Three Stooges is better TV than WH briefings (except the Shemp ones).

 

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1 hour ago, Bama Llama said:

 The Three Stooges is better TV than WH briefings (except the Shemp ones).

Hey lay off Shemp. He was an original Stooge and gave up a successful solo career to fill in for his brother when Curly got sick. It's not proper to mention him when speaking about a selfish cunt like Trump.

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8 hours ago, markstanco said:


 

 


How many in the last 30 days per the cdc? What news channel are you watching?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: this is the actual cdc website. I'll understand if you duck away and not reply.

Lmao at you thinking the true death count is ~30k lower than what every outlet is reporting and that you were so smart for going to the cdc site. 

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8 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

Texas just opened up a lot more so we'll just sit back and see how this plays out in the following 6 weeks. Counties around Amarillo that haven't been taking it seriously are now having an explosion of cases. Once the rural places get hit their people will drive into the metro areas to soak up resources that are in short supply. This is a dangerous game of Russian roulette we're playing with the health Care system. 

It feels like you’re new here, but I have to say your alarmist/Anti-all things R game is on point. I feel like you would really thrived during Mueller mania. Kudos  

You’re gonna fit in nicely.  

 

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5 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It feels like you’re new here, but I have to say your alarmist/Anti-all things R game is on point. I feel like you would really thrived during Mueller mania. Kudos  

You’re gonna fit in nicely.  

 

Your snowflake game is scrong.

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27 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It feels like you’re new here, but I have to say your alarmist/Anti-all things R game is on point. I feel like you would really thrived during Mueller mania. Kudos  

You’re gonna fit in nicely.  

 

Ah the simple old days of just waiting on the next indictment of someone Trump "barely knew".

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Well, this sounds like we are fucked.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-05/mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original

Quote

 

A mutant coronavirus has emerged, even more contagious than the original, study says

By RALPH VARTABEDIAN
MAY 5, 20204 AM
Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.

In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.

The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.

The mutation identified in the new report affects the now infamous spikes on the exterior of the coronavirus, which allow it to enter human respiratory cells. The report’s authors said they felt an “urgent need for an early warning” so that vaccines and drugs under development around the world will be effective against the mutated strain.

Wherever the new strain appeared, it quickly infected far more people than the earlier strains that came out of Wuhan, China, and within weeks it was the only strain that was prevalent in some nations, according to the report. The new strain’s dominance over its predecessors demonstrates that it is more infectious, according to the report, though exactly why is not yet known.

The coronavirus, known to scientists as SARS-CoV-2, has infected more than 3.5 million people around the world and caused more than 250,000 COVID-19 deaths since its discovery late last year.

The report was based on a computational analysis of more than 6,000 coronavirus sequences from around the world, collected by the Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data, a public-private organization in Germany. Time and again, the analysis found the new version was transitioning to become dominant.

The Los Alamos team, assisted by scientists at Duke University and the University of Sheffield in England, identified 14 mutations. Those mutations occurred among the nearly 30,000 base pairs of RNA that other scientists say make up the coronavirus’s genome. The report authors focused on a mutation called D614G, which is responsible for the change in the virus’ spikes.

“The story is worrying, as we see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form,” study leader Bette Korber, a computational biologist at Los Alamos, wrote on her Facebook page. “When viruses with this mutation enter a population, they rapidly begin to take over the local epidemic, thus they are more transmissible.”

While the Los Alamos report is highly technical and dispassionate, Korber expressed some deep personal feelings about the implications of the finding in her Facebook post.

“This is hard news,” wrote Korber, “but please don’t only be disheartened by it. Our team at LANL was able to document this mutation and its impact on transmission only because of a massive global effort of clinical people and experimental groups, who make new sequences of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) in their local communities available as quickly as they possibly can.”

Korber, a graduate of Cal State Long Beach who went on to earn a PhD in chemistry at Caltech, joined the lab in 1990 and focused much of her work on an HIV vaccine. In 2004, she won the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Award, the U.S. Department of Energy’s highest recognition for scientific achievement. She contributed a portion of the financial prize to help establish an orphanage for young AIDS victims in South Africa.

The report contains regional breakdowns of when the new strain of virus first emerged and how long it took to become dominant.

Italy was one of the first countries to see the new virus in the last week of February, almost at the same time that the original strain appeared. Washington was among the first states to get hit with the original strain in late February, but by March 15 the mutated strain dominated. New York was hit by the original virus around March 15, but within days the mutant strain took over. The team did not report results for California.

Scientists at major organizations working on a vaccine or drugs have told The Times that they are pinning their hopes on initial evidence that the virus is stable and not likely to mutate the way influenza virus does, requiring a new vaccine every year. The Los Alamos report could upend that assumption.

If the pandemic fails to wane seasonally as the weather warms, the study warns, the virus could undergo further mutations even as research organizations prepare the first medical treatments and vaccines. Without getting on top of the risk now, the effectiveness of vaccines could be limited. Some of the compounds in development are supposed to latch onto the spike or interrupt its action. If they were designed based on the original version of the spike, they might not be effective against the new coronavirus strain, the study’s authors warned.

“We cannot afford to be blindsided as we move vaccines and antibodies into clinical testing,” Korber wrote on Facebook. “Please be encouraged by knowing the global scientific community is on this, and we are cooperating with each other in ways I have never seen … in my 30 years as a scientist.”

David Montefiori, a Duke University scientist who worked on the report said it is the first to document a mutation in the coronavirus that appears to make it more infectious.

Although the researchers don’t yet know the details about how the mutated spike behaves inside the body, it’s clearly doing something that gives it an evolutionary advantage over its predecessor and is fueling its rapid spread. One scientist called it a “classic case of Darwinian evolution.”

“D614G is increasing in frequency at an alarming rate, indicating a fitness advantage relative to the original Wuhan strain that enables more rapid spread,” the study said.

Still unknown is whether this mutant virus could account for regional variations in how hard COVID-19 is hitting different parts of the world.

In the United States, doctors had begun to independently question whether new strains of the virus could account for the differences in how it has infected, sickened and killed people, said Alan Wu, a UC San Francisco professor who runs the clinical chemistry and toxicology laboratories at San Francisco General Hospital.

Medical experts have speculated in recent weeks that they were seeing at least two strains of the virus in the U.S., one prevalent on the East Coast and another on the West Coast, according to Wu.

“We are looking to identify the mutation,” he said, noting that his hospital has had only a few deaths out of the hundreds of cases it has treated, which is “quite a different story than we are hearing from New York.”

 

 

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10 hours ago, markstanco said:

What about you last year? Did you wear a mask to protect others from getting Pneumonia? I absolutely know you didn't.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Pneumonia killed almost 30k more this year and infinitely more last year.

Facts are fun arent they?

 

10 hours ago, babysdaddy said:


Vaccine works against the viral. Bacterial not. Saw something earlier that over 50% of the deaths of covid are from secondary bacterial pneumonia that explodes upon a weakened immune system. Bacterial pneumonia deaths were huge factor for death totals with Spanish flu combined with antibiotics not being created until 1928

 

9 hours ago, markstanco said:

How many in the last 30 days per the cdc? What news channel are you watching?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Note: this is the actual cdc website. I'll understand if you duck away and not reply.

 

It is obvious that pneumonia deaths include COVID-related pneumonia deaths.  It's not a coincidence that that pneumonia deaths are tracking with COVID deaths. As babysdaddy notes,  a lot of COVID related deaths are partially caused by pneumonia.  My understanding is the disease shuts down the flagella/cilia in our lungs (like nicotine does), so we lose the ability to remove pollutants, which makes us much more prone to getting infection.   

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11 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Oh wow whaddyaknow, this is following in the footsteps of the 1918 pandemic. Wave two was a doozie a century ago, I can't imagine we're going to fare any better with the current crop of waterheads running the whitehouse and senate

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11 hours ago, babysdaddy said:


Vaccine works against the viral. Bacterial not. Saw something earlier that over 50% of the deaths of covid are from secondary bacterial pneumonia that explodes upon a weakened immune system. Bacterial pneumonia deaths were huge factor for death totals with Spanish flu combined with antibiotics not being created until 1928

I went and looked this up to be certain and this is incorrect. The vaccine protects against types of bacterial infection. Prevnar was what the doctor has given me; it seems there is more than one. Although I receive a flu shot every year, for some strange reason even a URI can leave me with pneumonia. Probably because I had pneumonia when I was young after a bout with the flu (no vaccine back then). The vaccine does not mean one won't get pneumonia, but it is a safeguard that is worthwhile for certain populations IMO. I don't know how it relates to COVID-19 and I haven't been able to get in for my yearly so I guess when I can, I will ask my GP.

 

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