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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Also, note that the suggested link is not the document being referenced in the original link.

Annotation-2020-05-28-120315.png

 

The document you are seeking is probably this one: https://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/all/DOH_COVID19 _NHAdmissionsReadmissions_ 032520.pdf. The name of the document is the same but it has been moved to a different location. I found it by looking through all the documents on their website here:  https://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/?s=all&o=date&d=d

 

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The document you are seeking is probably this one: https://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/all/DOH_COVID19 _NHAdmissionsReadmissions_ 032520.pdf. The name of the document is the same but it has been moved to a different location. I found it by looking through all the documents on their website here:  https://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/?s=all&o=date&d=d
 
Scrubbed!!11!1!
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6 minutes ago, AeroHorn said:

The document you are seeking is probably this one: https://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/all/DOH_COVID19 _NHAdmissionsReadmissions_ 032520.pdf. The name of the document is the same but it has been moved to a different location. I found it by looking through all the documents on their website here:  https://dmna.ny.gov/covid19/docs/?s=all&o=date&d=d

 

Good work.  I located it via googles cache. 

Edited by Anastasis
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7 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

The saddest thing is that in our wealthy and plentiful world, malnutrition is a constant number 2 cause of death.

Be careful when you're interpreting those sorts of presentations.  In the footnote, they note that the deaths shown represent only ~7% of the total deaths (excluding COVID).  This site has a pretty robust set of visualization tools:

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/visualisations/gbd-compare

I think the easiest to read is the second option on the left (the one right under the world map icon), click "Cause" + "Deaths" + "Global" + 2017 + "All Ages" + "Both" sex + Level 2.

That chart shows that, for 2017, nutritional deficiencies (light orange, middle right of chart) represented 0.48% of total deaths worldwide.  During the same period, cardiovascular diseases and cancers (neoplasm) represented 31.8% and 17.1% of deaths, respectively.  For the U.S. only, those numbers are 0.17%, 31.6% and 24.5%.  Still fairly sobering, but not as alarming as the selected data shown in the flourish visualization.

 

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14 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Not sure how they quantify “major increase” but ok. 

Or what “easing restrictions” means. Were entire states opened up at once, or were qualifying counties opened up while others within a state remained more shut down due to prevailing outbreak conditions?  The latter example is how it should be done.

 

Edited by triplehorn
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1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Would appear to be good news here. 
 

Not sure how they quantify “major increase” but ok. 

Sure, Florida hasn't seen a significant increase in covid deaths. Just ignore that huge spike in pneumonia deaths.

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Hundreds of South Korea schools close again after reopening

"Seoul (CNN)More than 500 schools closed again Friday to students after briefly reopening, as South Korea moves to stamp out a resurgence of the coronavirus in the capital, Seoul, and its surrounding metropolitan area.

Parks, art galleries, museums and theaters operated by the government in the Seoul metropolitan area -- home to about half the country's population of nearly 52 million -- have also been closed to the public for the next two weeks.

Government hosted events in the metropolitan area will be canceled or postponed as well, Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said Thursday. The authorities have recommended that private academies and internet cafes there close too until June 14.

[...]

South Korea has been held up as a model of how to limit the spread of the coronavirus without a widespread lockdown, thanks to its rigorous testing, contact tracing and quarantine program.

Its struggle to prevent new outbreaks of the disease despite these stringent measures highlight the difficulties other nations can expect to face as they ease lockdown restrictions."

 

----> Sounds crappy, but that's what smart responsible leadership having its shit together actually looks like.

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16 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Where are you getting the pneumonia deaths data from?

Yeah, I think those numbers that were reported are wrong. 

I just pulled data from NCHS on excess deaths. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

The May data is incomplete, but up through April should be fairly reliable.  If we average the weekly death totals for Florida from Feb through April, we get 4,170 in 2017, 4,246 in 2018, and 4,233 in 2019. 2020 saw a modest increase to 4,439. Looking just at April, the increase gets slightly more dramatic. 2017-2019 averaged 4,079 (4,041, 4,016, and 4,181). 2020 saw 4,492 for per week in April. 

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5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, I think those numbers that were reported are wrong. 

I just pulled data from NCHS on excess deaths. (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm)

The May data is incomplete, but up through April should be fairly reliable.  If we average the weekly death totals for Florida from Feb through April, we get 4,170 in 2017, 4,246 in 2018, and 4,233 in 2019. 2020 saw a modest increase to 4,439. Looking just at April, the increase gets slightly more dramatic. 2017-2019 averaged 4,079 (4,041, 4,016, and 4,181). 2020 saw 4,492 for per week in April. 

When did Florida open up?

I would think the May and June numbers will be the ones to watch. Then compare to April numbers when things were mostly still shut down and people were mostly still cautious. 

But still, an extra say 300-400 deaths a week can reasonably be contributed to the pandemic there in April, and possibly more as with things shut down other causes likely decreased for the month. 

If that holds for other states we're talking tens of thousands of unreported deaths that could be attributed to the virus. 

Edited by Wanker Bob
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Would appear to be good news here. 
 
Not sure how they quantify “major increase” but ok. 

I can tell you from my firm’s presence in La, Miss and Alabama that there was a huge delay between the restrictions being eased officially (announcement) - and people actually returning to prior behavior (reality).

I still expect some type of spike in a couple weeks. Not sure how much, but enough mouth-breathing, non-mask wearing idiots are out and about now to cause a spike.
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2 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Where are you getting the pneumonia deaths data from?

Saw this graphic regarding splitting off deaths from Covid vs those categorized as "pneumnia".  I haven't verified the numbers myself, but fwiw:

 

EZK1iGDU8AE1iFS?format=jpg&name=large 

couple tweets also honing in on a pattern (again I haven't checked CDC myself to verify)

Quote

 

 

Edited by triplehorn
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Guest Lobo

Couldn’t we leave the WHO after the next spike/after vaccine?
 

 Our vaccine plan is to leave the global community of scientists and virologists who are working on the vaccine plan?  

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38 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Saw this graphic regarding splitting off deaths from Covid vs those categorized as "pneumnia".  I haven't verified the numbers myself, but fwiw:

 

EZK1iGDU8AE1iFS?format=jpg&name=large 

couple tweets also honing in on a pattern (again I haven't checked CDC myself to verify)

 

here's the reddit thread that was screenshotted from:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/gqypwx/kentucky_has_had_913_more_pneumonia_deaths_than/

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It was so predictable that red states would be vastly underreporting coronavirus deaths that we talked weeks ago about how to circumvent their corruption and get a real number idea. Merely classifying them as pneumonia deaths is extremely lazy even for republicans. It'll be very easy to see just how bad this is, and if those numbers are correct and representative of the nation we're pushing 200k easily right now. 

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25 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

shouldn't we be hearing about a new pneumonia task force at some point?  these numbers seem awfully high.

It’s because they are bullshit. @Dahobbs mentioned that above and it was talked about yesterday on the DT thread. 

Florida’s real numbers for example - https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/05/27/is-covid-19-why-florida-has-about-1300-more-pneumonia-deaths-this-season-than-average-over-previous-five/

2014-2015                 5510

2015-2016                 5214

2016-2017                 5540

2017-2018                 5792

2018-2019                 5374

2019-2020                 6772

 

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