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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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On 4/19/2022 at 6:52 PM, jimmyjazz said:

I'll just continue to be concerned for everyone, not just the smarties that get their vaxxes.  Y'all can be happy that unvaxxed and immunocompromised and other random people die, that looks good on you.

Tomorrow is 4 months for me from booster #1, I'm lining up.  You know, doing my part.

What a depressing thread.

What % of the population hasn't been vaxxed + does not have antibodies from prior infection? It has to be pretty small at this point. I think people being cautious is a good thing however the vast majority of people are maskless now where I live (SoCal), I can't imagine what red states & Texas are like it must be damn near zero. 

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On 4/19/2022 at 2:16 PM, jimmyjazz said:

 

I think it is extraordinarily unwise to snap back and forth on public health policy.  It is far more prudent to be a bit more cautious and avoid having to reverse course.  The average American struggles with the idea of new data informing prior policy.  We've seen it, again and again.

Maybe you are right about that.  But what was also unwise was to create these mandates without some sort of metrics that we could all work towards to lessen/remove the mandates.  Austin has had that, and they announce when cases go down enough to change our behavior, and they announce when cases go up and we should be more vigilant, and by and large people in Austin have been good about it.  But as much as I was arguing the other day about water bottles through security,  and that being a bigger deal, mask mandates are perfectly fine as long as they are logical but they suck ass when they aren't.  

What I think you really are asking for, and it's shocking to me that the CDC hasn't done this yet, is they need a really really really top notch PR team.  They let too many scientists get out in front of the public and hem and haw about this stuff.  They need to make everyone who is talking for the CDC be very very clear on 1) Why we are asking people to do x, 2) how long we need them to do x, 3) what changes could cause us not to have to do x as long, and 4) simple language about what is happening that is causing x to happen.  They aren't doing that today, so most people have no fucking clue how safe or dangerous things are, because they don't understand what the CDC is doing, and since the CDC is looking at sometimes conflicting data sets and doesn't want to accidentally say something that they can't scientifically prove, they appear to be wishy washy on the science, and it erodes public trust.  

On 4/19/2022 at 9:02 PM, fattyflattie said:

Dulles was about 70/30 for masked/unmasked today.  Sat up front in Penelopes part of the plane, about 70/30 unmasked to masked. Was really curious what it was like in the back today.   IAH was about 40% masked this afternoon on arrival. Maybe less.  I figure by next week it’ll be down to 10% here in IAH and 35-40% at IAD. 

On Tuesday Austin was pretty close to 70% masked but hte plane was closer to 50/50 to IAH.  Houston to St. Louis was more like 50/50 in the airport and 20/80 on the plane.  Yesterday, St. Louis airport was maybe 10% masked, same with the flight to IAH, and 20% from Houston to Austin. 

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17 hours ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Maybe you are right about that.  But what was also unwise was to create these mandates without some sort of metrics that we could all work towards to lessen/remove the mandates.  Austin has had that, and they announce when cases go down enough to change our behavior, and they announce when cases go up and we should be more vigilant, and by and large people in Austin have been good about it. 

No doubt, but I imagine Austin is one of the more educated large cities in the United States.  Austinites tend to be pretty well-informed.

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So I have to head to Spain in a few weeks for business and was taking my wife.  She is now freaked out about having to take a Covid Test to get back into the US and being stranded in Spain for 7-10 days.  Honest question, but why is this still a requirement?  Covid is here, the variants are here and the testing is not full proof in that I could test negative and a day later test positive when I am back in the US.  I get it at the beginning of the pandemic when we were trying to not let Covid spread in this country but now with vaccines and pretty much the entire country having Covid floating around is this really doing anything to require a Covid test to re-enter the United States?

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1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

So I have to head to Spain in a few weeks for business and was taking my wife.  She is now freaked out about having to take a Covid Test to get back into the US and being stranded in Spain for 7-10 days.  Honest question, but why is this still a requirement?  Covid is here, the variants are here and the testing is not full proof in that I could test negative and a day later test positive when I am back in the US.  I get it at the beginning of the pandemic when we were trying to not let Covid spread in this country but now with vaccines and pretty much the entire country having Covid floating around is this really doing anything to require a Covid test to re-enter the United States?

Do you seriously not know why?

Have you not kept up with the status of the pandemic in Europe with the BA.2 stealth variant? 

It's a pleasant surprise that we haven't seen major surges with this variant domestically.

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34 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

Do you seriously not know why?

Have you not kept up with the status of the pandemic in Europe with the BA.2 stealth variant? 

It's a pleasant surprise that we haven't seen major surges with this variant domestically.

You mean this one that is already here?

https://www.aol.com/worried-ba-2-coronavirus-variant-195006658.html

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Fly to Norway.  No vax proof required to fly.  No masks required on airplane.  Or train, or anywhere else.  Once in a while some old people wear it in the supermarket.  Shit's fine.

You still need a negative test to get into the US.
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Something is going on, at least in Houston

 

about 60% of people I know (co-workers, friends, family) are sick currently or have been sick within the last 10 days with a very strange type of virus

 

it seems its presenting first as norovirus, but then progesses to a really really bad cold and then comes back as norovirus-type again after about 7-10 days. Seems like most people I know are still symptomatic even after 2 weeks. Its strange because no way does norovirus progress like that or last that long. Anyone else seeing this? 
 

 

Edit: also, almost everyone i know has been tested for flu/rona and all are coming back negative for both

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5 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Something is going on, at least in Houston

 

about 60% of people I know (co-workers, friends, family) are sick currently or have been sick within the last 10 days with a very strange type of virus

 

it seems its presenting first as norovirus, but then progesses to a really really bad cold and then comes back as norovirus-type again after about 7-10 days. Seems like most people I know are still symptomatic even after 2 weeks. Its strange because no way does norovirus progress like that or last that long. Anyone else seeing this? 
 

 

Edit: also, almost everyone i know has been tested for flu/rona and all are coming back negative for both

This spring has been horrible for flu type illnesses in my anecdotal experience.  I have heard a lot of, "I haven't been that sick in a long time" commentary.  I haven't heard anything about confirmed tests or actual diagnosis.  The non-medical professional, facebook opinion that I am getting second hand from my wife is everyone's immune system was less capable after the last couple years of limited interactions.  Something, something, but they did stay at a Holiday Inn Express.

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4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Every democrat politician who has tested positive has the same echo chamber tweet about being thankful they’re boosted and vaccinated. Dumbass VP is no different


It’s really weird.


-a vaccinated citizen

It’s really weird to be grateful to have technology that prevent you from getting very sick or even dying from a communicable disease?

 

 

That’s really weird to think that

Edited by Sawbonz
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4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Every democrat politician who has tested positive has the same echo chamber tweet about being thankful they’re boosted and vaccinated. Dumbass VP is no different


It’s really weird.


-a vaccinated citizen

I'd almost agree, except they're all about 80, so they'd probably die from it without.

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6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Every democratic politician who has tested positive has the same echo chamber tweet about being thankful they’re boosted and vaccinated. Dumbass VP is no different


It’s really weird. good, consistent messaging.


-not a fucking regard

FIF myself

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7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Anybody have a list of prominent Republicans and elected Republican officials who have died from Covid?

 

I wonder how that compares to a list of Democrats?

This is on a per-county basis, so it doesn't address politicians/officials, but oh look, once the first states to get hit (NY/NJ/CA etc.) started enacting reasonable public health policy, covid has been far deadlier in red counties than blue counties:

Chart shows in early phase of pandemic, far more COVID-19 deaths in counties that Biden would go on to win; since then, there have been many more deaths in pro-Trump counties

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Democratic politician in the news for having Covid. They give a soundbite being appreciative of the vaccine

 

Republican politician in the news for having Covid. No sound bite because they’re in the news because they died from Covid

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Democratic politician in the news for having Covid. They give a soundbite being appreciative of the vaccine
 
Republican politician in the news for having Covid. No sound bite because they’re in the news because they died from Covid
Republican voter: Democrats are so stupid.
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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Anybody have a list of prominent Republicans and elected Republican officials who have died from Covid?

 

I wonder how that compares to a list of Democrats?

Prominent Republicans were all vaxxed and boosted. They just don't talk about it, because they have to death cult.

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Every democrat politician who has tested positive has the same echo chamber tweet about being thankful they’re boosted and vaccinated. Dumbass VP is no different


It’s really weird.


-a vaccinated citizen

lol bless your heart
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35 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wouldn't put much stock in absolute numbers regarding case count, but I do think trendlines likely have some value.  Cases appear to be creeping back up, surely due to BA2:

image.thumb.png.267c269cce874a1ae583e12033f01f40.png

To be expected.  And now, the test of our vaccination program (and previous infections) -- will those elements prevent future COVID infections from becoming serious (hospitalization/death)?  That's going to be the key to figuring out whether we've reached "acceptable endemic illness" level.  Fingers crossed.

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25 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

For what it's worth, there doesn't seem to be universal agreement among public health experts that we have transitioned from "pandemic" to "endemic".

No disagreement from me.  My point (articulated in very short form) is that how we perform in the next material uptick in cases will be instructive as to where we are on that continuum. 

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Distribution in covid-19 death rate is now considerably narrower between vaxxed and unvaxxed, with the elderly being least able to fight off omricon despite vax status:

 

WaPo on covid mortality

Spoiler

Unvaccinated people accounted for the overwhelming majority of deaths in the United States throughout much of the coronavirus pandemic. But that has changed in recent months, according to a Washington Post analysis of state and federal data.

The pandemic’s toll is no longer falling almost exclusively on those who chose not to get shots, with vaccine protection waning over time and the elderly and immunocompromised — who are at greatest risk of succumbing to covid-19, even if vaccinated — having a harder time dodging increasingly contagious strains.

The vaccinated made up 42 percent of fatalities in January and February during the highly contagious omicron variant’s surge, compared with 23 percent of the dead in September, the peak of the delta wave, according to nationwide data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by The Post. The data is based on the date of infection and limited to a sampling of cases in which vaccination status was known.

As a group, the unvaccinated remain far more vulnerable to the worst consequences of infection — and are far more likely to die — than people who are vaccinated, and they are especially more at risk than people who have received a booster shot.

Tracking the coronavirus vaccine

“It’s still absolutely more dangerous to be unvaccinated than vaccinated,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health professor at the University of California at Irvine who studies covid-19 mortality. “A pandemic of — and by — the unvaccinated is not correct. People still need to take care in terms of prevention and action if they became symptomatic.”

A key explanation for the rise in deaths among the vaccinated is that covid-19 fatalities are again concentrated among the elderly.

Nearly two-thirds of the people who died during the omicron surge were 75 and older, according to a Post analysis, compared with a third during the delta wave. Seniors are overwhelmingly immunized, but vaccines are less effective and their potency wanes over time in older age groups.

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Experts say they are not surprised that vaccinated seniors are making up a greater share of the dead, even as vaccine holdouts died far more often than the vaccinated during the omicron surge, according to the CDC. As more people are infected with the virus, the more people it will kill, including a greater number who are vaccinated but among the most vulnerable.

What to know about the omicron variant and subvariant BA.2

The bulk of vaccinated deaths are among people who did not get a booster shot, according to state data provided to The Post. In two of the states, California and Mississippi, three-quarters of the vaccinated senior citizens who died in January and February did not have booster doses. Regulators in recent weeks have authorized second booster doses for people over the age of 50, but administration of first booster doses has stagnated.


Even though the death rates for the vaccinated elderly and immunocompromised are low, their losses numbered in the thousands when cases exploded, leaving behind blindsided families. But experts say the rising number of vaccinated people dying should not cause panic in those who got shots, the vast majority of whom will survive infections. Instead, they say, these deaths serve as a reminder that vaccines are not foolproof and that those in high-risk groups should consider getting boosted and taking extra precautions during surges.

“Vaccines are one of the most important and longest-lasting tools we have to protect ourselves,” said California State Epidemiologist Erica Pan, citing state estimates showing vaccines have shown to be 85 percent effective in preventing death.

“Unfortunately, that does leave another 15,” she said.

‘He did not expect to be sick’
Arianne Bennett recalled her husband, Scott Bennett, saying, “But I’m vaxxed. But I’m vaxxed,” from the D.C. hospital bed where he struggled to fight off covid-19 this winter.

Friends had a hard time believing Bennett, co-founder of the D.C.-based chain Amsterdam Falafelshop, was 70. The adventurous longtime entrepreneur hoped to buy a bar and planned to resume scuba-diving trips and 40-mile bike rides to George Washington’s Mount Vernon estate.

Bennett went to get his booster in early December after returning to D.C. from a lodge he owned in the Poconos, where he and his wife hunkered down for fall. Just a few days after his shot, Bennett began experiencing covid-19 symptoms, meaning he was probably exposed before the extra dose of immunity could kick in. His wife suspects he was infected at a dinner where he and his server were unmasked at times.

0:00/0:35
Arianne Bennett recalls her husband's disbelief that he was hospitalized with covid-19.

An urn holding Scott Bennett's ashes in the D.C. apartment he shared with his wife. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
A fever-stricken Bennett limped into the hospital alongside his wife, who was also infected, a week before Christmas. He died Jan. 13, among the 125,000 Americans who succumbed to covid-19 in January and February.

“He was absolutely shocked. He did not expect to be sick. He really thought he was safe,’” Arianne Bennett recalled. “And I’m like, ‘But baby, you’ve got to wear the mask all the time. All the time. Up over your nose.’”

Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida College of Public Health, said the deaths of vaccinated people are among the consequences of a pandemic response that emphasizes individuals protecting themselves.

“When we are not taking this collective effort to curb community spread of the virus, the virus has proven time and time again it’s really good at finding that subset of vulnerable people,” Salemi said.

While experts say even the medically vulnerable should feel assured that a vaccine will probably save their lives, they should remain vigilant for signs of infection. As more therapeutics become available, early detection and treatment is key.

When Wayne Perkey, 84, first started sneezing and feeling other cold symptoms in early February, he resisted his physician daughter’s plea to get tested for the coronavirus.

The legendary former morning radio host in Louisville had been boosted in October. He diligently wore a mask and kept his social engagements to a minimum. It must have been the common cold or allergies, he believed. Even the physician who ordered a chest X-ray and had no coronavirus tests on hand thought so.

Perkey relented, and the test came back positive. He didn’t think he needed to go to the hospital, even as his oxygen levels declined.

0:00/0:24
Rebecca Booth describes her father’s struggle to accept the severity of his covid-19 case.
“In his last voice conversation with me, he said, ‘I thought I was doing everything right,’” recalled Lady Booth Olson, another daughter, who lives in Virginia. “I believe society is getting complacent, and clearly somebody he was around was carrying the virus. ... We’ll never know.”

From his hospital bed, Perkey resumed a familiar role as a high-profile proponent for vaccines and coronavirus precautions. He was familiar to many Kentuckians who grew up hearing his voice on the radio and watched him host the televised annual Crusade for Children fundraiser. He spent much of the pandemic as a caregiver to his ex-wife who struggled with chronic fatigue and other long-haul covid symptoms.

“It’s the 7th day of my Covid battle, the worst day so far, and my anger boils when I hear deniers talk about banning masks or social distancing,” Perkey wrote on Facebook on Feb. 16, almost exactly one year after he posted about getting his first shot. “I remember times we cared about our neighbors.”

In messages to a family group chat, he struck an optimistic note. “Thanks for all the love and positive energy,” he texted on Feb. 23. “Wear your mask.”

As is often the case for covid-19 patients, his condition rapidly turned for the worse. His daughter Rebecca Booth, the physician, suspects a previous bout with leukemia made it harder for his immune system to fight off the virus. He died March 6.

“Really and truly his final days were about, ‘This virus is bad news.’ He basically was saying: ‘Get vaccinated. Be careful. But there is no guarantee,’” Rebecca Booth said. “And, ‘If you think this isn’t a really bad virus, look at me.’ And it is.”

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Hospitals, particularly in highly vaccinated areas, have also seen a shift from covid wards filled predominantly with the unvaccinated. Many who end up in the hospital have other conditions that weakens the shield afforded by the vaccine.

Vaccinated people made up slightly less than half the patients in the intensive care units of Kaiser Permanente’s Northern California hospital system in December and January, according to a spokesman.

Gregory Marelich, chair of critical care for the 21 hospitals in that system, said most of the vaccinated and boosted people he saw in ICUs were immunosuppressed, usually after organ transplants or because of medications for diseases such as lupus or rheumatoid arthritis.

“I’ve cared for patients who are vaccinated and immunosuppressed and are in disbelief when they come down with covid,” Marelich said.

‘There’s life potential in those people’
Jessica Estep, 41, rang a bell celebrating her last treatment for follicular lymphoma in September. The single mother of two teenagers had settled into a new home in Michigan, near the Indiana border. After her first marriage ended, she found love again and got married in a zoo in November.

As an asthmatic cancer survivor, Estep knew she faced a heightened risk from covid-19, relatives said. She saw only a tight circle of friends and worked in her own office in her electronics repair job. She lived in an area where around 1 in 4 residents are fully vaccinated. She planned to get a booster shot in the winter.

“She was the most nonjudgmental person I know,” said her mother, Vickie Estep. “It was okay with her if people didn’t mask up or get vaccinated. It was okay with her that they exercised their right of choice, but she just wanted them to do that away from her so that she could be safe.”

With Michigan battling back-to-back surges of the delta and omicron variants, Jessica Estep wasn’t able to dodge the virus any longer — she fell ill in mid-December. After surviving a cancer doctors described as incurable, Estep died Jan. 27. Physicians said the coronavirus essentially turned her lungs into concrete, her mother said.

0:00/0:29
Vickie Estep on why the immunocompromised depend on covid precautions.
Estep’s 14-year-old daughter now lives with her grandparents. Her widower returned to Indianapolis just months after he moved to Michigan to be with his new wife.

Her family shared her story with a local television station in hopes of inspiring others to get vaccinated, to protect people such as Estep who could not rely on their own vaccination as a foolproof shield. In response to the station’s Facebook post about the story, several commenters shrugged off their pleas and insinuated it was the vaccines rather than covid causing deaths.

Immunocompromised people and those with other underlying conditions are worth protecting, Vickie Estep said. “There’s life potential in those people.”

0:00/0:40
Vickie Estep on why covid-19 with other health problems shouldn’t be dismissed.
A delayed shot
As Arianne Bennett navigates life without her husband, she hopes the lesson people heed from his death is to take advantage of all tools available to mitigate a virus that still finds and kills the vulnerable, including by getting boosters.

Bennett wore a music festival shirt her husband gave her as she walked into a grocery store to get her third shot in March. Her husband urged her to get one when they returned to D.C., but she became sick at the same time he did. She scheduled the appointment for the earliest she could get the shot: 90 days after receiving monoclonal antibodies to treat the disease.

“My booster! Yay!” Bennett exclaimed in her chair as the pharmacist presented an updated vaccine card.

“It’s been challenging, but we got through it,” the pharmacist said, unaware of Scott Bennett’s death.

Tears welled in Bennett’s eyes as the needle went in her left arm, just over a year after she and her husband received their first shots.

“Last time we got it, we took selfies: ‘Look, we had vaccines,’” Bennett said, beginning to sob. “This one leaves me crying, missing him so much.”

The pharmacist leaned over and gave Bennett a hug in her chair.

“He would want you to do this,” the pharmacist said. “You have to know.”

0:00/0:33
Arianne Bennett on the emphasis on the low death rates in vaccinated people.
Lenny Bernstein contributed to this report.

Methodology
Death rates compare the number of deaths in various groups with an adjustment for the number of people in each group. The death rates listed for the fully vaccinated, the unvaccinated and those vaccinated with boosters were calculated by the CDC using a sample of deaths from 23 health departments in the country that record vaccine status, including boosters, for deaths related to covid-19. The CDC study assigns deaths to the month when a patient contracted covid-19, not the month of death. The latest data published in April reflected deaths of people who contracted covid as of February. The CDC study of deaths among the vaccinated is online, and the data can be downloaded.

The death rates for fully vaccinated people, unvaccinated people and fully vaccinated people who received an additional booster are expressed as deaths per 100,000 people. The death rates are also called incidence rates. The CDC estimated the population sizes from census data and vaccination records. The study does not include partially vaccinated people in the deaths or population. CDC adjusted the population sizes for inaccuracies in the vaccination data. The death data is provisional and subject to change. The study sample includes the population eligible for boosters, which was originally 18 and older, and now is 12 and older.

To compare death rates between groups with different vaccination status, the CDC uses incidence rate ratios. For example, if one group has a rate of 10 deaths per 100,000 people, the death incidence rate would be 10. Another group may have a death incidence rate of 2.5. The ratio between the first group and the second group is the rate of 10 divided by the rate of 2.5, so the incidence rate ratio would be 4 (10÷2.5=4). That means the first group dies at a rate four times that of the second group.

The CDC calculates the death incidence rates and incidence rate ratios by age groups. It also calculates a value for the entire population adjusted for the size of the population in each age group. The Post used those age-adjusted total death incidence rates and incidence rate ratios.

The Post calculated the share of deaths by vaccine status from the sample of death records the CDC used to calculate death incidence rates by vaccine status. As of April, that data included 44,000 deaths of people who contracted covid in January and February.

The share of deaths for each vaccine status does not include deaths for partially vaccinated people because they are not included in the CDC data.

The Post calculated the share of deaths in each age group from provisional covid-19 death records that have age details from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. That data assigns deaths by the date of death, not the date on which the person contracted covid-19. That data does not include any information on vaccine status of the people who died.

 


washingtonpost.com © 1996-2022 The Washington Post
 

image.png.5fbeaba650f7bfe10178af0bb5192b06.pngimage.png.9dea2411c72c07cd450bc0c128c80df1.png

 

 

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Anecdotally there seems to be a surge going on in my world. I would put the number of friends and business relationships positive in the last two weeks pretty close to Delta.  Not as bad as end of year Omicron.  Last two people in my life that I can think of who had yet to test positive are down right now.  Cold like for him, flu like for her.

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I'm on the clock now I guess. My 2 boys were with the ex last week and all started feeling flu-like symptoms on Sunday so she took them that evening to get tested. Initially only my 10 yr old son came up positive but my ex came up positive yesterday and then today for my 6 yr old. She was too ill to keep them for quaratine so I've spent the last 2 days with my sons, including a 6 yr old that has no sense of personal space.

 

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