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Coronavirus Impact on Travel


idigTexas

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9 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

What’s the conspiracy theory being floated?

There have been all kinds of conspiracy theories since this thing started.  2 that have cropped up again, and again:

1. Chinese bio weapon escapes from Wuhan military lab.

1a.  A research scientist at Harvard or some other Ivy school arrested for selling secrets to Chinese who had ties to Wuhan.

2. Media over playing the coverage to hurt Trump.

These are the 2, I've seen the most. 

 

EDIT:  I'm sorry, you're neg repping a post because you asked a question, it was answered, and you neg rep it ?  What the hell is your problem ?  You didn't like the answer ?  Didn't fit your little slice of life ?  Feewings hurt ?

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At the airport they got fully suited staff and police screening every arriving passenger at the jet bridge. 

 

We got extended family with us, and already had a shift a bunch of their flights around.

 

We're thing to fly to our home first, and they fly to their homes tomorrow.

 

If any of this fails, we'd have to host people for quarantine period.  Do not want.

 

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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


I mean....if they have a car. Most of them don’t.

Hitchhiking?  What could possibly go wrong? I’m sure you could find a few folks on here willing to offer these young ladies shelter for the night on their voyage home.

 

j/k.  Hope it all works out well for you guys.

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Odds that domestic air travel gets shut down?

We have some friends who are supposed to fly in to visit from out of state in a couple of weeks. I’m not sure they are responsible enough to call it off, so if they can’t make the right decision and if the government doesn’t do it for them, I’ll get to be the asshole who says they can’t come. Just not worth it and I don’t want them to pick up the virus in the airport and bring it to my house.

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19 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

Odds that domestic air travel gets shut down?

We have some friends who are supposed to fly in to visit from out of state in a couple of weeks. I’m not sure they are responsible enough to call it off, so if they can’t make the right decision and if the government doesn’t do it for them, I’ll get to be the asshole who says they can’t come. Just not worth it and I don’t want them to pick up the virus in the airport and bring it to my house.

Odds very high you won’t have to be the asshole.  Well, at least not on this call.

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7 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

Odds that domestic air travel gets shut down?

We have some friends who are supposed to fly in to visit from out of state in a couple of weeks. I’m not sure they are responsible enough to call it off, so if they can’t make the right decision and if the government doesn’t do it for them, I’ll get to be the asshole who says they can’t come. Just not worth it and I don’t want them to pick up the virus in the airport and bring it to my house.

I think fairly high. United sent a memo out to employees with this language:

We are working night and day on support and ideas to keep as much pay as we possibly can flowing to you -- even if gets worse from here and demand temporarily plummets to zero.
 

So they clearly see it as a possibility. 

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So, what do we really think the timeline on this is? 2 months, 3 months?


In my opinion six to nine months. The social distancing will slow the spread for a few weeks, but then businesses and govt will have to reopen. At that point people will be back out again and the virus will re-ignite until everyone has been touched.

Or, hot weather slows it done, things seem to get back to normal in 3 months, but then goes haywire again in November.
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Some acquaintances took their kids out of school 2 weeks ago to travel the world. They are completely disconnected from reality and the wife is constantly “look at me, my life is golden”. They ended up stuck in Dubai a week ago after their second cruise was cancelled. She posted they are at the airport to board a flight to LA. Half of the airport is coughing. Reality may be starting to sledgehammer its way into her thick skull.

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28 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 


In my opinion six to nine months. The social distancing will slow the spread for a few weeks, but then businesses and govt will have to reopen. At that point people will be back out again and the virus will re-ignite until everyone has been touched.

Or, hot weather slows it done, things seem to get back to normal in 3 months, but then goes haywire again in November.

 

Aka, the Spanish flu. It was deadlier after the summer and into 1919

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In my opinion six to nine months. The social distancing will slow the spread for a few weeks, but then businesses and govt will have to reopen. At that point people will be back out again and the virus will re-ignite until everyone has been touched.

Or, hot weather slows it done, things seem to get back to normal in 3 months, but then goes haywire again in November.
We have to hope they fast track a vaccine to be ready to go ASAP. They would be dumb not to. Sounds like a few are already going into human trials. Even if the vaccine is 90% effective, that is better than we are now.
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2-3 months...till we start getting back to "normal".
We're still a month out from it really starting to peak here in the states and majority of people actually taking it seriously.
I think people here in the States are taking it seriously. Almost everything in NYC is shut, of course to be fair, its probably already widespread here. Just, as expected, most cases are not being caught as people stay the fuck home.
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15 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:
2-3 months...till we start getting back to "normal".
We're still a month out from it really starting to peak here in the states and majority of people actually taking it seriously.

Yes, what constitutes "normal."

People starting to "work" from work instead of home... kids going back to school (year round places or colleges). Restaurants and movie theaters opening back up.

People right now are treating the situation like a continuation of spring break and not a stay home and away from people situation that it demands. 

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27 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:
2-3 months...till we start getting back to "normal".
We're still a month out from it really starting to peak here in the states and majority of people actually taking it seriously.

I think people here in the States are taking it seriously. Almost everything in NYC is shut, of course to be fair, its probably already widespread here. Just, as expected, most cases are not being caught as people stay the fuck home.

Not enough are.  Look at the St. Patrick's day gatherings and the image from Disneyworld last night.  Too many people have the perspective that "I'm not in the at risk crowd so I DGAF" about it.

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People starting to "work" from work instead of home... kids going back to school (year round places or colleges). Restaurants and movie theaters opening back up.
People right now are treating the situation like a continuation of spring break and not a stay home and away from people situation that it demands. 


It is unfortunate that those people ruin it for all of us. At this point the only time I am leaving the house is to walk the dogs/take a walk to get some exercise. I am stocked up, though need to hit the Duane Reade for some Tylenol.
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1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

2-3 months...till we start getting back to "normal".

We're still a month out from it really starting to peak here in the states and majority of people actually taking it seriously.

Peak (cases) is late April if we’re Really lucky, probably more like mid-May IMO. The boredom I already see affecting some people; my parents for one and already made them stop going to church and cancelled their June cruise. But if you want “excitement”, the stock market might be more your game. 

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

 


In my opinion six to nine months. The social distancing will slow the spread for a few weeks, but then businesses and govt will have to reopen. At that point people will be back out again and the virus will re-ignite until everyone has been touched.

Or, hot weather slows it done, things seem to get back to normal in 3 months, but then goes haywire again in November.

 

That’s reasonable but I guess we’ll see what happens in China after they open and for that matter Europe/Italy/Spain. We have roadmaps so I think we’ll find out while we are in the middle of the shit if round two is only a season away. 

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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
2 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:
2-3 months...till we start getting back to "normal".
We're still a month out from it really starting to peak here in the states and majority of people actually taking it seriously.

I think people here in the States are taking it seriously. Almost everything in NYC is shut, of course to be fair, its probably already widespread here. Just, as expected, most cases are not being caught as people stay the fuck home.

People in the states are not taking it seriously. So much so it is now incumbent on local/state governments to close public businesses BECAUSE people aren’t avoiding them.

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Just now, GreenspointTexas said:

A vaccine is not coming before may of 2021... even if we have the whole world working together on it

 

if we quarantine for at least a month, shit will normalize in 3 months

 

if we only quarantine for a few weeks, expect this thing to go to july, maybe early august even

I call bullshit on #1.  I say that because the various approval organizations can fast track it and have one ready by October/November.  It may not be 100% effective, but 90 > 0, which is waht we have now.  You get something done via emergency, and then make improvements on that.  The world economy cannot take that long of uncertainty, and THAT is going to be the driver to have something sooner rather than later.

I think we are basically in stay the fuck at home mode for 8 weeks.  Schools are not coming back in the classroom.  

And let us be clear, quarantine is not what this is.  Quarantine means you do not leave your home period.  This is social distancing.  It is stay the fuck at home except for a trip to the grocery store or pharmacy, or to get outside for fresh air or to walk your dogs.  So for instance, in a day, I will most likely spend 20-22 hours in my house.  There will be an hour or two a day I go outside and walk my dogs, take a walk to get some exercise.  

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6 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I call bullshit on #1.  I say that because the various approval organizations can fast track it and have one ready by October/November.  It may not be 100% effective, but 90 > 0, which is waht we have now.  You get something done via emergency, and then make improvements on that.  The world economy cannot take that long of uncertainty, and THAT is going to be the driver to have something sooner rather than later.

I think we are basically in stay the fuck at home mode for 8 weeks.  Schools are not coming back in the classroom.  

And let us be clear, quarantine is not what this is.  Quarantine means you do not leave your home period.  This is social distancing.  It is stay the fuck at home except for a trip to the grocery store or pharmacy, or to get outside for fresh air or to walk your dogs.  So for instance, in a day, I will most likely spend 20-22 hours in my house.  There will be an hour or two a day I go outside and walk my dogs, take a walk to get some exercise.  

The president will come on tv sometime in the next 5 days and close all businesses except for doctors offices, grocery stores, pharmacies, and hospitals. He will also mandate that people stay home unless an essential worker to one of the places above (whether or not people obey that is another thing)

 

you can call it whatever you want, but the rest of the world calls it quarantine

 

also, its literally impossible to create and ramp up production (Especially for over 300 million americans) on a vaccine in less than 1.25 years. Its not going to happen. 

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48 minutes ago, achooloco said:

That’s reasonable but I guess we’ll see what happens in China after they open and for that matter Europe/Italy/Spain. We have roadmaps so I think we’ll find out while we are in the middle of the shit if round two is only a season away. 

When the son calls, and says the Air Force travel ban's lifted (May 11 currently) it'll be getting back to semi normal.

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12 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I call bullshit on #1.  I say that because the various approval organizations can fast track it and have one ready by October/November.  It may not be 100% effective, but 90 > 0, which is waht we have now.  You get something done via emergency, and then make improvements on that.  The world economy cannot take that long of uncertainty, and THAT is going to be the driver to have something sooner rather than later.

I think we are basically in stay the fuck at home mode for 8 weeks.  Schools are not coming back in the classroom.  

And let us be clear, quarantine is not what this is.  Quarantine means you do not leave your home period.  This is social distancing.  It is stay the fuck at home except for a trip to the grocery store or pharmacy, or to get outside for fresh air or to walk your dogs.  So for instance, in a day, I will most likely spend 20-22 hours in my house.  There will be an hour or two a day I go outside and walk my dogs, take a walk to get some exercise.  

Yep, and I think economies will rebound fairly quickly.  

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43 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I call bullshit on #1.  I say that because the various approval organizations can fast track it and have one ready by October/November.  It may not be 100% effective, but 90 > 0, which is waht we have now.  You get something done via emergency, and then make improvements on that.  The world economy cannot take that long of uncertainty, and THAT is going to be the driver to have something sooner rather than later.

There isn't much ability to fast track a vaccine. It's not about how effective the vaccine and the decision to roll out a vaccine that is only 90% effective and then improve upon that. It's about safety and clinical trials to make sure we don't inject everyone with a vaccine that actually has potential to harm them. Those trials can't be fast tracked.

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1 hour ago, VABuckeye said:

Not enough are.  Look at the St. Patrick's day gatherings and the image from Disneyworld last night.  Too many people have the perspective that "I'm not in the at risk crowd so I DGAF" about it.

I think a lot of people naively have the mentality that an event wouldn't occur if it wasn't safe. They just believe that society has safety measures 100% baked in and enforced for all aspects of life.

Therefore, if the government or the event organizers aren't cancelling the event, then it must be okay because surely some higher authority would intervene if it's a significant health risk. Disneyworld wouldn't be open if it wasn't safe. Since it was open, they went.

That's why it's so important for government and these other organizations to do the responsible thing and take the decision out of the individual.

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Most are worried about catching this virus, rather than what happens if/when you catch it. It’s extremely contagious, just like the common cold. However, it’s also just as bad as catching the cold, or flu, for all of the population that isn’t normally susceptible to mortality from either of these ailments.  It’s bad for the elderly, and those with compromised immune systems, just like the cold and flu.  When you hear of a person dying of natural causes, this is usually what it is.... they caught something their body couldn’t deal with, but something that is mostly minor for the rest of the population.

You have to ask yourself what you think is worse here.... an unprecedented impact on the world economy driven by fear rather than actual basis, or spreading what is effectively another version of the common cold or flu.  The panic is the real thing to be afraid of, and the lack of leadership, all over the world, only makes it worse.

Its quite possible, likely probable, that the hysteria created around this causes more death than the virus itself. Hospitals flooded with people with cold symptoms, who would normally self treat at home, versus the truly sick that need medical attention that’s no longer available as a result of this panic. 
There’s no good answer here but the bottom line is this showed us everything that’s wrong with the “system” and we have no reasonable plan for dealing with any of this.  Everyone across the world is taking a shoot from the hip approach and it seems a lot of the decisions are based on what someone else has done rather than a true, scientific, risk-based measure. This would literally be 28 Days Later if it was really a 50% or 90% mortality rate. That’s the scariest part about this whole thing. 
We’ve removed literally trillions of dollars from the worlds economy with even more on the way as restaurants are forced to be closed - who’s going to pay that waiters rent when they don’t work for 2 weeks, or the other bills that pile up?  This is absurd and anyone thinking there’s just going to be a government bailout is drinking Jim Jones koolaid. 

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4 minutes ago, b_p said:

You have to ask yourself what you think is worse here.... an unprecedented impact on the world economy driven by fear rather than actual basis, or spreading what is effectively another version of the common cold or flu.  The panic is the real thing to be afraid of, and the lack of leadership, all over the world, only makes it worse.

I completely disagree. This has been stated countless times here and elsewhere, but this is NOT the cold or the flu. This is potentially much much worse, but there's a 312+ page thread in DT for that.

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10 minutes ago, b_p said:

Most are worried about catching this virus, rather than what happens if/when you catch it. It’s extremely contagious, just like the common cold. However, it’s also just as bad as catching the cold, or flu, for all of the population that isn’t normally susceptible to mortality from either of these ailments.  It’s bad for the elderly, and those with compromised immune systems, just like the cold and flu.  When you hear of a person dying of natural causes, this is usually what it is.... they caught something their body couldn’t deal with, but something that is mostly minor for the rest of the population.

You have to ask yourself what you think is worse here.... an unprecedented impact on the world economy driven by fear rather than actual basis, or spreading what is effectively another version of the common cold or flu.  The panic is the real thing to be afraid of, and the lack of leadership, all over the world, only makes it worse.

Its quite possible, likely probable, that the hysteria created around this causes more death than the virus itself. Hospitals flooded with people with cold symptoms, who would normally self treat at home, versus the truly sick that need medical attention that’s no longer available as a result of this panic. 
There’s no good answer here but the bottom line is this showed us everything that’s wrong with the “system” and we have no reasonable plan for dealing with any of this.  Everyone across the world is taking a shoot from the hip approach and it seems a lot of the decisions are based on what someone else has done rather than a true, scientific, risk-based measure. This would literally be 28 Days Later if it was really a 50% or 90% mortality rate. That’s the scariest part about this whole thing. 
We’ve removed literally trillions of dollars from the worlds economy with even more on the way as restaurants are forced to be closed - who’s going to pay that waiters rent when they don’t work for 2 weeks, or the other bills that pile up?  This is absurd and anyone thinking there’s just going to be a government bailout is drinking Jim Jones koolaid. 

I mean, thank GOD we had the money to bailout the financial sector with $1.5 trillion instead of actual workers affected by this. 

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9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, thank GOD we had the money to bailout the financial sector with $1.5 trillion instead of actual workers affected by this. 

This is a tough decision to make. 

Of course, hourly wager earners need to be considered and paid.  I am prepared to do that with my hourly employees.  It will be costly but it is necessary.  (for the record I'm right of Attila the Hun)

Protecting 401K investments and the like is necessary because many workers (hourly and salaried) have most of their retirements held in investment accounts and need protection, as well.  In the case of valid retirement accounts such as 401Ks and similar vehicles,  the gubmint needs to protect these.  General investment accounts may need to be left to chance and what happens is what happens...the COVID 19 crisis should be treated like any other investment risk factor.

These are just a scatter shot of my thoughts and I could be very wrong.  I'm sure the Surly collective will chime in.

Flame away.

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