Jump to content

Surly #Stonks


Wally Fairway

Recommended Posts

Just now, gsoda3 said:

the $800 call is at $2 x $2.05 right now.  so whomever bought at $4.95 is down almost $3 per share.  also each contract is for 100 shares.  so if you're buying 1 contract it's not just $4.95, it's $4.95 * 100 shares.  

So you see where in my post you quoted where I said “you’d have to fork over $495.....etc, etc, etc”???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cam4mav said:

what does that mean. calls/puts still confuse me the money for contracts doesn't mean anything in my head.

 

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

It means that there were 15000 contracts sold (last time I looked) on people betting that GME either will or won't get to 800 by friday (someone has to sell them in order for another to buy them)...

...1 contract that entitles you to buy 100 shares of Gamestop at $800 by THIS FRIDAY.  

 

Just expanding a bit from the last post, it's better to think of a call/put contract just like a stock.  It is a freely traded instrument like a stock, but with tons of leverage built in.  (The big appeal of Robinhood is they turned this previously exotic derivative instrument into something regular people now trade.)

 

For practical understanding, ignore the legal obligation part of the contract.  Many (most?) traders don't see to the end state of a contract.  They buy or sell contracts based on their directional assumptions, and then flip the contract, thereby absolving them of any right or obligation.

 

For example, the Friday 800C contract has a leverage (Delta value) of ~15:1.  Every dollar the stock moves, the value of the contract changes by $15.  This is why when the stock was 90$, the contract cost $100, and when the stock rallied up to $140, the contract was worth 850$  (15*(140-90)). 

 

When the stock was $90 today, you didn't need to believe the stock would end up >$800 by the end of the week.  You just need it to move up by ANY amount, that you would profit.

 

There is a lot that could be assumed based on  trading volume and open interest of options contracts, and what it says  about what the market thinks the stock will do (in fact it implies the expected volatility).  So what Trey said is right.  But on a practical terms, lots of it is just short-term speculating.

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Solid call on this one.  I sold for a tidy 50 percent profit and bought uuuu and amyzf instead.  

A good move as, at this point, there’s more % upside on UUUU and AMYZF.  Still holding all three stocks and looking for a dip to add to the UUUU position.  Glad you made money.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

When the stock was $90 today, you didn't need to believe the stock would end up >$800 by the end of the week.  You just need it to move up by ANY amount, that you would profit.

 

yes and no.  time decay is real.  theta is the rate of decline in price as the deadline approaches.  the closer it gets, the faster theta decays.  

 

if you plan on covering your option very soon after you purchase it, theta will hurt you less than if you decide to cover it later.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, gsoda3 said:

yes and no.  time decay is real.  theta is the rate of decline in price as the deadline approaches.  the closer it gets, the faster theta decays.  

 

if you plan on covering your option very soon after you purchase it, theta will hurt you less than if you decide to cover it later.

its a bit of a deep dive to bring in the kitchen sink with theta, and even vega (my personal favorite and what i exploit).

in the context of trading GME and the wild swings that it has, theta is almost negligible -- nobody should be sitting on it overnight. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

its a bit of a deep dive to bring in the kitchen sink with theta, and even vega (my personal favorite and what i exploit).

in the context of trading GME and the wild swings that it has, theta is almost negligible -- nobody should be sitting on it overnight. 

 

 

2gcj6v.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

in the context of trading GME and the wild swings that it has, theta is almost negligible -- nobody should be sitting on it overnight. 

 

hah that's easier to say on a tuesday than a thursday.  i very much disagree that theta is negligible-  it certainly isn't as important if you cover the same day, but options are such a major factor in trading high delta moves like these especially in the context of overnight risk you just can't ignore it.  

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

hah that's easier to say on a tuesday than a thursday.  i very much disagree that theta is negligible-  it certainly isn't as important if you cover the same day, but options are such a major factor in trading high delta moves like these especially in the context of overnight risk you just can't ignore it.  

 

 

that's why i have multiple open far OTM short puts on it right, thiefing theta while it'll likely expire friday worthless :D.  #shortvol4life

for the robinhood crowd -- which is net buyer of options, and especially near-expiry ones as yolo gambles -- an ATM call is +100 delta, -240 theta.  if they're bullish on the stock, a 2 point movement in stock price pretty much offsets the theta decay. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

A good move as, at this point, there’s more % upside on UUUU and AMYZF.  Still holding all three stocks and looking for a dip to add to the UUUU position.  Glad you made money.

I would like to send a thank you, what’s the best way to do it?  I can do Best Buy coupons or a Venmo if you want to slum.  Just pm me.  You guys are awesome for the dumas “investors “ like me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

that's why i have multiple open far OTM short puts on it right, thiefing theta while it'll likely expire friday worthless :D.  #shortvol4life

haha if you're into that there's a trade idea involving 800 calls but for that one you'll have to subscribe to my newsletter.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

for the robinhood crowd -- which is net buyer of options, and especially near-expiry ones as yolo gambles -- an ATM call is +100 delta, -240 theta.  if they're bullish on the stock, a 2 point movement in stock price pretty much offsets the theta decay. 

isn't the RH crowd buying OTM calls?  at least that used to be the MO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

haha if you're into that there's a trade idea involving 800 calls but for that one you'll have to subscribe to my newsletter.  

whats your idea on the 800?  ratios? calendars?

i sold a bunch of 800C yesterday that was decently safe, covered by shares.  did some at 115C last week and that was playing with fire (got out okay).  by this point pretty drained from watching 1 symbol for days in a row!  (and completely ignoring my day job)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

whats your idea on the 800?  ratios? calendars?

i sold a bunch of 800C yesterday that was decently safe, covered by shares.  did some at 115C last week and that was playing with fire (got out okay).  by this point pretty drained from watching 1 symbol for days in a row!  (and completely ignoring my day job)

i said it as a joke about collecting the premiums for the naked 800 calls.  good to hear you did ok with the 115 calls though i know a few who got burned making that play.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

i said it as a joke about collecting the premiums for the naked 800 calls.  good to hear you did ok with the 115 calls though i know a few who got burned making that play.  

I sold some 115 calls. Made a small bit on the trade (~15%).  Got out before shit went nuts.  I would have been down like 300k on the trade at one point.  eek.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

If you can make that weekly, remember that the tax man will want his cut. So you'll have to put some aside, unless you have losses elsewhere.....like from a bar 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

If you can make that weekly, remember that the tax man will want his cut. So you'll have to put some aside, unless you have losses elsewhere.....like from a bar 

Not the person with a bar.  And yeah, I know.  Thankfully, I have significant expenses from my main consulting business, so that is always nice.  I am cool setting aside half so the guvmint gets theirs.  :D

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

I like buying in the money or at the money bull call strategies with 3-6 months time.  Got to be confident in the stock, obviously, but it’s a way to participate without having to lay as much on the table.  
 

For instance, I like some oil names right now as supply is finally starting to tighten and should get to 5 year average in the next few months.  
 

so here’s an example:

 

CVX is trading at 87.xx/share right now.   
 

I can buy the June $85 strike call for $7.65/sh right now.   I can then look and sell the June $100 call for $2.57/sh.    Net cost of $5.08, which means I need CVX to be at $90.08 by June to get all my money back.  If it runs to 95 by June, my contract will be worth $10, or double my money.   You make money all the way up to $100/share on the stock price.  $15 max contract value.   But it’s a relatively simple trade that I can see play out fairly convincingly and without having to risk to a of money to do it.   

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am getting to the point where if I can make 500-1k a week, I will start profit taking.  Not pure day trading, but I have sat and held for a while.  Anyone have some interesting option trading strategies?  I am still a newby when it comes to a lot of this.

this is has been my strategy since last summer.  semi-day trading. actively place a few trades each day, but not actively monitoring trades the entire day (GME episode exempted).  steep'ish learning curve, but super glad i learned it, and keeps me engaged with the market. 

 

if theres an interest, we should start an Options trading thread, id love to shoot the shit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

forced profit on daily trades is way more satisfying (and dopamine pumping) than getting lucky on a long stock and the excruciating decision of should-i-shouldnt-i sell, or sitting on a stale position and wanting to dump it or well-now-itll-finally-move.

 

your year end excel file for taxes will be hilarious though.  (i use filing service)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

forced profit on daily trades is way more satisfying (and dopamine pumping) than getting lucky on a long stock and the excruciating decision of should-i-shouldnt-i sell, or sitting on a stale position and wanting to dump it or well-now-itll-finally-move.

 

your year end excel file for taxes will be hilarious though.  (i use filing service)

schwab loads that shit right into turbo tax. Impossible to put a price on dopamine surges. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

If I was one of the richest people in the world like Bezos I would have thrown in the CEO towel and started doing I Am One of the Richest People in the World shit all day a long time ago.  

That is probably a statement that begs the question, in that, you are not one of the richest people in the world precisely because you think like that and it exempts you from operating in a way that is necessary to be one of the richest people in the world.

It's a compliment really, I'm saying you aren't mentally ill or sociopathic. 

Edited by DonkeyCigars
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

this is has been my strategy since last summer.  semi-day trading. actively place a few trades each day, but not actively monitoring trades the entire day (GME episode exempted).  steep'ish learning curve, but super glad i learned it, and keeps me engaged with the market. 

 

if theres an interest, we should start an Options trading thread, id love to shoot the shit.

I think this is a good idea.  Then the market threads are 4.  A general market thread, this STONK thread, the penny stock thread, and an option thread.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...