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College Football in 2020 in danger?


The_Great_Hornsby

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11 hours ago, LongestHorn said:

Is XII waiting for another P5 to postpone/cancel fall sports before they do?  

They're all waiting to see which one of them will blink first.  The rest will quickly follow suit citing safety, no true playoffs, etc.  The only thing stopping it right now is that sweet tv money.  That's hard to quit, but it's just a matter of time until they announce no college sports in 2020.

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58 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

They're all waiting to see which one of them will blink first.  The rest will quickly follow suit citing safety, no true playoffs, etc.  The only thing stopping it right now is that sweet tv money.  That's hard to quit, but it's just a matter of time until they announce no college sports in 2020.

You are most likely correct, expect B1G & PAC to attempt to look "uniformed" in any move:

 

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4 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

You are most likely correct, expect B1G & PAC to attempt to look "uniformed" in any move:

 

If I was a gambling man, I would put every dime you had that neither Rutgers, Maryland, Syracuse or Boston College will play this fall due to the lockdown status of the underlying states.  That matters, as shitty as they are.  Non-confs will be announced cancelled, and the loss of just one or two more (See UNC, etc.) will have a domino effect on either B1G or ACC.  And then we're off to the shutdown races.  I just think that's there's so many inter-connected moving parts, that once the cancellations start it's over.  Love to be wrong.  At the very least, I hold out hope that at least one (cough cough) conference may have enough underlying support to forge ahead, just for the sake of a conference Champion.  Easier to justify when you consider said conference title the de faction national title anyway.  We'll all be living in a Danielson and Nessler world.

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If I was a gambling man, I would put every dime you had that neither Rutgers, Maryland, Syracuse or Boston College will play this fall due to the lockdown status of the underlying states.  That matters, as shitty as they are.  Non-confs will be announced cancelled, and the loss of just one or two more (See UNC, etc.) will have a domino effect on either B1G or ACC.  And then we're off to the shutdown races.  I just think that's there's so many inter-connected moving parts, that once the cancellations start it's over.  Love to be wrong.  At the very least, I hold out hope that at least one (cough cough) conference may have enough underlying support to forge ahead, just for the sake of a conference Champion.  Easier to justify when you consider said conference title the de faction national title anyway.  We'll all be living in a Danielson and Nessler world.
SEC- only college football season is far worse than no college football season.
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43 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

If I was a gambling man, I would put every dime you had that neither Rutgers, Maryland, Syracuse or Boston College will play this fall due to the lockdown status of the underlying states.  That matters, as shitty as they are.  Non-confs will be announced cancelled, and the loss of just one or two more (See UNC, etc.) will have a domino effect on either B1G or ACC.  And then we're off to the shutdown races.  I just think that's there's so many inter-connected moving parts, that once the cancellations start it's over.  Love to be wrong.  At the very least, I hold out hope that at least one (cough cough) conference may have enough underlying support to forge ahead, just for the sake of a conference Champion.  Easier to justify when you consider said conference title the de faction national title anyway.  We'll all be living in a Danielson and Nessler world.

I haven't seen it mentioned, but canceling non con would create a mess with Notre Dame and the ACC 

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All the marginal schools that depend on the payouts for being body bag games for P5 schools are even more screwed. Without the big payouts of non-con are cancelled, their already screwed up budgets are eviscerated. When the dominoes start to fall, it’s going to be even more of a crap storm, stretching years.
 

I will not at all be surprised to see a number of economically marginal schools drop CFB. And those are the same schools that can least afford to have students stay away. So if they go to an online-only model for the fall or a year, and students decide to avoid the big price tag and instead take online classes from the local juco, boy, it’s going to change everything in higher ed. 
 

For example, why in the world would someone pay $60k for SMU online (I get that it’s overpriced anyway, but still)?

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44 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

This is all so unbelievably stupid

We all stayed home for 2 months so our “leaders” could do precisely jack shit to mitigate the crisis. 

We have mitigated it it somewhat. But if you're waiting for "leaders" or government to protect you or solve any of your problems, you're liable to be waiting a long time.

Edited by 927 E. 41st
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42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I assumed the PAC would cancel first. Between California and the 2 Arizona schools where cases are spiking, that’s half the conference schools right there 

You're right, California is top of the list as well.

33 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I haven't seen it mentioned, but canceling non con would create a mess with Notre Dame and the ACC 

Yep, everything's connected.  Notre Dame has no season at this point.

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9 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

We have mitigated it it somewhat. But if you're waiting for "leaders" or government to protect you or solve any of your problems, you're libel to be waiting a long time.

*liable

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Notre Dame, more or less plays it's 5 game ACC contracted schedule, like a conference slate, stuck between Stanford & USC:

Quote
DATE
OPPONENT
LOCATION
TIME / RESULT
TV
 
Sat, Sep 5
 navy.png
Annapolis, Md.
TBA
ESPN
 
Sat, Sep 12
 arkansas.png
Arkansas
Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
2:30pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Sep 19
 western_michigan.png
Western Michigan
Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
2:30pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Sep 26
 wake_forest.png
@ Wake Forest
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
TBA
TBA
 
Sat, Oct 3
 wisconsin.png
Wisconsin *
Green Bay, WI
7:00pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Oct 10
 stanford.png
Stanford
Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
7:30pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Oct 17
 pitt.png
@ Pittsburgh
Heinz Field
TBA
TBA
 
Sat, Oct 31
 duke.png
Duke
Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
3:30pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Nov 7
 clemson.png
Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
7:30pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Nov 14
 georgia_tech.png
@ Georgia Tech
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
TBA
TBA
 
Sat, Nov 21
 louisville.png
Louisville
Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
2:30pm (ET)
NBC
 
Sat, Nov 28
 usc_new.png
LA Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, CA)
TBA
TBA

The Irish would be stuck in a tough spot if ACC closes up shop for 2020 as that would be Oct.-10, to Nov.-28, without a game...

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9 minutes ago, kopp0e said:

Notre Dame, more or less plays it's 5 game ACC contracted schedule, like a conference slate, stuck between Stanford & USC:

The Irish would be stuck in a tough spot if ACC closes up shop for 2020 as that would be Oct.-10, to Nov.-28, without a game...

And if there are no non-con games that would be 2020 without a game.

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3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

 

I wouldn't be shocked about this.

The logistics of schooling at home but participating in athletics is.... puzzling.  And unfair.  Schools aren't going to have robust testing procedures or the money to procure that many tests on a weekly basis for kids to play.  College and pro, sure.  But not all the high schools in Texas. 

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9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

 

Sucks for the kids. If this sticks around for 4+ years would high schools still have sports programs? 

Hopefully the much hated "big pharma" can come up with a vaccine, of course the conspiracy/anti-vax crowd will have some negative spin on it.

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On 7/7/2020 at 12:53 PM, Ghost of LL said:

The State Fair of Texas was canceled this morning.  So if we're going to have football this fall, we probably need a different location for Texas-ou.

Why? Is there going to be a Texas State Fair at some other stadium?

As I said earlier, that's a door that should NEVER be opened.

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1 minute ago, wood said:

Why? Is there going to be a Texas State Fair at some other stadium?

As I said earlier, that's a door that should NEVER be opened.

You don't need the fair to have the game

And more importantly, the lack of fair + outdoor stadium is ideal for this environment. 

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On 7/7/2020 at 2:09 PM, orange dream said:

Concerned about HS football also.  My son will be a Senior, won't play in college, so this will be it.  I'm hoping for the best but bracing for the worst.  Getting more ragey by the day at people who refuse to wear masks, make any attempt to social distance, etc. because of the infringement on their rights.

Yep, the restrictions on our daily lives wouldn't have to be so bad if people would just wear masks, etc. Instead, they shout "My rights" and diminish our lives much more than if they'd just stfu & put the got damn mask on. The irony...

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1 hour ago, 927 E. 41st said:

We have mitigated it it somewhat. But if you're waiting for "leaders" or government to protect you or solve any of your problems, you're liable to be waiting a long time.

By “mitigate” you mean we’ve had cases steadily grow for months now?

Your second point is taken for sure. It’s sad though. And sucks

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47 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

Sucks for the kids. If this sticks around for 4+ years would high schools still have sports programs? 

Hopefully the much hated "big pharma" can come up with a vaccine, of course the conspiracy/anti-vax crowd will have some negative spin on it.

Westlake would play Lake Travis every weekend before they didn't play football.

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5 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

By “mitigate” you mean we’ve had cases steadily grow for months now?

Your second point is taken for sure. It’s sad though. And sucks

No, not spiking like NYC on a nationwide basis is pretty good mitigation. We have so few weapons to fight this foe, it's a small victory just to not overwhelm the soldiers on the front line. Or from our perspective, I'd say its best not to be needing bed 101 at a 100 bed hospital. Then it really is  "Game over man!"

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39 minutes ago, 927 E. 41st said:

No, not spiking like NYC on a nationwide basis is pretty good mitigation. We have so few weapons to fight this foe, it's a small victory just to not overwhelm the soldiers on the front line. Or from our perspective, I'd say its best not to be needing bed 101 at a 100 bed hospital. Then it really is  "BALL GAME man!"

FIFY

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Now idiots in Congress are weighing in. Awesome.

Meanwhile, Blumental and Senator Corey Booker (D-N.J.) have introduced legislation that would prevent schools from asking college athletes to sign COVID-19 waivers. Blumenthal calls the waiver requests “an implicit recognition of the dangers [of] having those students come back.”

 

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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and this is when the parents start to get involved.  Just about every prediction I've ever made on here was 100% and the exact opposite is usually the result.  When the NCAA tourney got called, I pretty much resigned to the fact that there would be no college football OR basketball (20-21 season).  Please let me be wrong again.

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3 hours ago, nnm said:

All the marginal schools that depend on the payouts for being body bag games for P5 schools are even more screwed. Without the big payouts of non-con are cancelled, their already screwed up budgets are eviscerated. When the dominoes start to fall, it’s going to be even more of a crap storm, stretching years.
 

I will not at all be surprised to see a number of economically marginal schools drop CFB. And those are the same schools that can least afford to have students stay away. So if they go to an online-only model for the fall or a year, and students decide to avoid the big price tag and instead take online classes from the local juco, boy, it’s going to change everything in higher ed. 
 

For example, why in the world would someone pay $60k for SMU online (I get that it’s overpriced anyway, but still)?

I agree that the marginal schools will get hurt without their three $1M non con payday games this year. However, they won't drop football. They'll drop other sports (like Stanford and 18 other schools did yesterday). No way they cut off the best funding source for them going forward.

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6 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I agree that the marginal schools will get hurt without their three $1M non con payday games this year. However, they won't drop football. They'll drop other sports (like Stanford and 18 other schools did yesterday). No way they cut off the best funding source for them going forward.

Baseball will be first on the chopping block, as we've seen a few schools already do. 

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3 hours ago, MotownHorn said:

This is all so unbelievably stupid

We all stayed home for 2 months so our “leaders” could do precisely jack shit to mitigate the crisis. 

This. Apple and Google worked overtime for a contract tracing bluetooth protocol and as far as I'm aware there is no national or Texas app that uses it.

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I wish they would aim at a much lower but way more reasonable goal. 2 games. Rivalry game (ex. UT/OU) mid season and a bowl game at the end. I think having the mindset that it's all or nothing is going to land you with nothing. 

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I said this elsewhere but the financial impacts on multiple d1 schools are potentially way too severe.

 

They won’t cancel until the very last minute, if at all. This is why you see season ticket reductions and distancing announcements at nfl stadiums starting to trickle out but as far as I am aware, nothing of this sort from P5 or Mid Majors.

 

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2 minutes ago, Pasken said:

I wish they would aim at a much lower but way more reasonable goal. 2 games. Rivalry game (ex. UT/OU) mid season and a bowl game at the end. I think having the mindset that it's all or nothing is going to land you with nothing. 

Losing the non-cons is a big step in that direction but I think the overall revenue for the season will take huge hit if 50% or 25% capacity is mandated. I would imagine the reason they wouldn't consider a 2 game season would be all of the expense/lawsuit risk without enough income to make it practical.

While I think there are multiple aspects that could be the deciding factor, I don't expect any responsible AD to approve of a huge money sink hole of a plan.

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