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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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Seriously, it's just time to have coded voting receipts with a website available for verification.  I've heard the arguments against (votes for cash, loss of secrecy, potential for receipt tampering, etc.), but between those and the risks of voting machine hacks, SOS / poll personnel chicanery, etc, it seems the least of all evils.

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

How do those risks compare to those for shopping, paying bills & taxes, etc. over the internet?

The risks are pretty much the same, it the consequences that are much more severe. 

I think a good start would be all mail-in voting with online tracking. Then we can transition to vote online + mail-in receipt, or something like that. 

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21 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Those things don't determine the transfer of power of the most powerful nation on earth. The incentive to hack those things, particularly at scale, is astronomically less than an election. And the damage that can be caused is less than the damage caused by hacking an election. Too much is at stake in a election to make it susceptible to being directly hacked.  Online shopping is generally secure enough for online shopping. But it isn't perfectly secure and is often compromised. But the benefits outweigh the risks. The risks associated with voting by internet are too great. 

yet every few months, i still hear of a huge breach/hack/leak in some online shopping/bill paying situation where everyone's personal information is exposed.  i can't imagine the attacks that'll be cooked up if we turned to online voting.

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2 hours ago, Red Five said:

In a bunch of those "Trump wins" scenarios that make up 30% of their model, Trump is winning Oregon, New Mexico, and Colorado. 

 

Let's be clear what language Silver uses: 31 of the 100 models show Trump winning.  I didn't read his thread, but unless he said all of those models are equally probable, he is not saying Trump has a 31% chance of winning.  He likely runs a model that has Trump getting x,y,z percentages of demographics X,Y,Z, and then that equates to state results.  While those x,y,z percentages may be reasonable, I assume he is testing the models at the book ends of likelihood - out to some standard deviation - for xyz. If he was only running models at what he expects to happen, at standard deviation equals zero, there would only be one model to run. 

 

- Correction: he runs 40,000 simulation which creates 100 maps.  Doesn't mean each simulation is equally probable, and sure as shit doesn't mean each unique result is equally probable.  

Edited by Tuco
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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

But they fail to take into account the opportunities living and working in the United States allow for people to earn wealth in the first place. To have a good education, to be able to make money in a free market, to be able to improve your station. They don't ever equate a fucking dollar amount to the things America has provided them (and take for granted) in regards to the ability to show up and make money in the first place

Exactly. Warren got raked over the coals for saying “You didn’t build it,” but she was 100% correct. Well maybe 99.9% correct. Every success story in this country was built on a foundation that was handed to us by our predecessors, and that was built with collective wealth and sweat equity. 

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17 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Exactly. Warren got raked over the coals for saying “You didn’t build it,” but she was 100% correct. Well maybe 99.9% correct. Every success story in this country was built on a foundation that was handed to us by our predecessors, and that was built with collective wealth and sweat equity. 

That the simple acknowledgment of this truth is viciously attacked as "anti-American" and "anti-freedom" and whatnot is exhibit eleventy billion in The Case of America Being the Stupidest Fucking Place Ever.  From the most direct (my stable and middle-class parents gave me a leg up on success) -- to the indirect (a well-maintained transportation system and a system that enforces commercial contracts fairly allowed me to pursue my business and make much more money than I would have been able to make without those things), the myth of "American Man Succeeds With no Help from Anyone or Anything!" isn't just a myth, it's a lie.

And the thing is, it's okay for for it to be true that we owe much of our success to the work and product of others.  That actually IS what makes America "great."  Seriously, drive on the roads in a shitload of other countries (Mexico, Armenia, Honduras, Mississippi) -- it's a bitch to engage in meaningful commerce in such places.  And in many other such places, you can enforce a contract.  You'll need a lawyer....and a gun.  And the lawyer is really optional (unless he's also your dude with a gun, in which case you should keep him around).

A big part of my prosperity is because I was born into a relatively functional system with a healthy economic infrastructure, to parents who were economically stable (not rich by any means, but stable). It's okay for me to admit that; it doesn't make me any less of a person or less of a success.

But maybe, the problem with acknowledging that truth....is that we also have to acknowledge some ugliness on the other side of that coin.  A good bit of that sweat equity our society acquired and built upon?  It was slave sweat.  The advantages I was born into (a stable family unit, that built upon previous stable family units -- relatively (grandparents and great grandparents definitely had their issues) are not advantages that poor folks -- who are disproportionately minority (and there's a connection between the two -- see slavery, the Black Codes, and Jim Crow, which held black people back at the very least until the Civil Rights era) have.  Not everyone gets the same unearned advantages, and some of the advantages we DO have came at the expense of others who are still trying to play catch-up.  Truth is truth.  It shouldn't hurt us to acknowledge it.

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1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

It's a good start to the Biden Presidency for many Texans and should not hurt the chances to turn Texas Blue, but only help.

Biden: "I am not banning Fracking". 

https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-fracking-not-banning-95ac7370-aa0e-47d9-98b2-fb9b3bc93bee.html

I'm an insurance broker for Oil & Gas companies and you'd be surprised at how many executives have convinced themselves (with a big assist from Fox News) that Biden will ban Frac'ing and have asked us if there is an insurance product that would protect them in this situation.  There is no such thing available, but I never thought I'd be getting Political Risk inquiries from companies operating in the US.

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Biden is said to have to have raised over $300m in August, including shared committees within the Dem party. Previous informal record for either party is thought to have been 190m by Obama in 2008.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/us/politics/biden-trump-fundraising-election.html

Quote

However far above $300 million the final figure is, it would greatly surpass previous monthly hauls by candidates of both parties. It is more, for instance, than what Mr. Trump ($90 million) and Mrs. Clinton ($143 million) raised in August 2016 — combined.

 

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4 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

"I wasn't going to support him, but Mitch called and told me that I am.  And I always was, of course.  But some of my voters don't like Trump and will appreciate that I pretended to stand up to to him for a minute.  There are a lot of good people on both sides, ya know?"

Edited by TexArcher
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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

yet every few months, i still hear of a huge breach/hack/leak in some online shopping/bill paying situation where everyone's personal information is exposed.  i can't imagine the attacks that'll be cooked up if we turned to online voting.

https://www.csoonline.com/article/2130877/the-biggest-data-breaches-of-the-21st-century.html

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11 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I'm an insurance broker for Oil & Gas companies and you'd be surprised at how many executives have convinced themselves (with a big assist from Fox News) that Biden will ban Frac'ing and have asked us if there is an insurance product that would protect them in this situation.  There is no such thing available, but I never thought I'd be getting Political Risk inquiries from companies operating in the US.

Hey send them my way!  For a billion dollar premium, I will protect them from when Communist Joe takes over and outlaws oil.  Tell them I also sell MS13 insurance too!

 

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15 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

And a big fuck you to Susan Collins. 

History is not going to be kind to her. She has helped do so much damage to this country in her refusal to completely condemn Dotard. If she loses that vote for Kavanaugh will likely be looked at as her death knell as a senator. The rest of her actions in regards to Dotard are just indefensible.

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4 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Hey send them my way!  For a billion dollar premium, I will protect them from when Communist Joe takes over and outlaws oil.  Tell them I also sell MS13 insurance too!

 

Ha!  We certainly tried to find an underwriter willing to discuss it, but no one had an appetite for it.  There's a market for protecting rigs going to Angola against contract frustration or a pipeline project in Mexico from nationalization, but nothing for regulatory risk in the US.   

I have just been shocked at how many people think this is a very real risk they are facing from a potential Biden presidency. 

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22 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

"I wasn't going to support him, but Mitch called and told me that I am.  And I always was, of course.  But some of my voters don't like Trump and will appreciate that I pretended to stand up to to him for a minute.  There are a lot of good people on both sides, ya know?"

I want to move to Maine just so I can vote against her.  The hate I have for her is strong to quite strong.

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31 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

I'm an insurance broker for Oil & Gas companies and you'd be surprised at how many executives have convinced themselves (with a big assist from Fox News) that Biden will ban Frac'ing and have asked us if there is an insurance product that would protect them in this situation.  There is no such thing available, but I never thought I'd be getting Political Risk inquiries from companies operating in the US.

Sounds like an opportunity for your firm to create one and make some fucking money. Stick MAGA on it and it’ll sell like hot cakes. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
Damnit this is what I get for not reading through the thread.
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will there ever be a point where self-preservation instincts kick in and repub senators abandon him? its pretty clear at this point that they are all on a plane that trump is flying straight into a mountain. there are parachutes onboard, does anyone use one? or do they all die in a fiery crash chanting TRUMP!?

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19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"Yes, I said that I wouldn't endorse him but that doesn't mean I don't fully support him." 

That may be the most Susan Collins thing ever said.

I mean if it wasn't from Susan Collins, I would think this one was fake it's so ridiculous.  She has outdone herself.

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4 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

will there ever be a point where self-preservation instincts kick in and repub senators abandon him? its pretty clear at this point that they are all on a plane that trump is flying straight into a mountain. there are parachutes onboard, does anyone use one? or do they all die in a fiery crash chanting TRUMP!?

Except you are presuming that Trump loses.  If Trump wins, they have cemented themselves as power brokers in a party that will never go out of power -- there will be no meaningful chance for an opposition to have national political power after this.  A handpicked SCOTUS, with justices like Jeanine Pirro, will simply rubber stamp whatever the executive branch does.

In order to take over the country and destroy the rule of law, all you have to do is control 2 of the 3 branches of gov't.  Right now, Trumpism controls the exec branch and the legislative branch (at least to the extent it matters to their power -- they control the Senate).  Once the control the SCOTUS, then the entire legislative branch is irrelevant.  No matter what they do, the SCOTUS will take Trump's side, and that's it -- it's over.  The whole fucking experiment ends.  We have an Achilles heel, he's figured out how to exploit it, and that's that.

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40 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Biden is said to have to have raised over $300m in August, including shared committees within the Dem party. Previous informal record for either party is thought to have been 190m by Obama in 2008.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/us/politics/biden-trump-fundraising-election.html

 

 

Edited by Aqua Buddha
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8 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

will there ever be a point where self-preservation instincts kick in and repub senators abandon him? its pretty clear at this point that they are all on a plane that trump is flying straight into a mountain. there are parachutes onboard, does anyone use one? or do they all die in a fiery crash chanting TRUMP!?

Every poll I've seen shows she's losing her race, so if not now when? She must either have different polls, or she doesn't believe them. Or, she truly supports him. 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Except you are presuming that Trump loses.  If Trump wins, they have cemented themselves as power brokers in a party that will never go out of power -- there will be no meaningful chance for an opposition to have national political power after this.  A handpicked SCOTUS, with justices like Jeanine Pirro, will simply rubber stamp whatever the executive branch does.

In order to take over the country and destroy the rule of law, all you have to do is control 2 of the 3 branches of gov't.  Right now, Trumpism controls the exec branch and the legislative branch (at least to the extent it matters to their power -- they control the Senate).  Once the control the SCOTUS, then the entire legislative branch is irrelevant.  No matter what they do, the SCOTUS will take Trump's side, and that's it -- it's over.  The whole fucking experiment ends.  We have an Achilles heel, he's figured out how to exploit it, and that's that.

well yeah, it doesnt matter in your example but it does in  mine, that was kind of the whole point of my question... lol 

the most likely outcome right now is he loses, will they just stick by him hoping he steals the election?

 

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Just now, Longhorn94 said:

well yeah, it doesnt matter in your example but it does in  mine, that was kind of the whole point of my question... lol 

the most likely outcome right now is he loses, will they just stick by him hoping he steals the election?

 

That's actually what makes the current situation so fucking dangerous.  You are a GOP congressman or senator.  You see two possible outcomes: 1) a Biden win, which is part of and results in a crippling of the GOP as a national party, leaving you frozen out of power for a long-ass time, and possibly facing criminal sanction for some of the bullshit you've engaged in with the regime, or 2) a Trump win, which sees you and your party cemented into a place of power for decades to come in what will be, functionally, a monarchy.

They have to do anything and everything possible to achieve option 2.  It's literally an existential question for them and their party.  And when you are fighting for your life.....you'll do fucking anything.  ANYTHING.  They will 100% support Trump dispatching federal paramilitary troops to seize ballot boxes.  They will support foreign interference and hacking, and will cover for it after the fact.  They will do whatever it takes to cement their hold on power for life.

This is our concern, dude.  It's not just Trump -- it's the entire GOP apparatus behind him, which quite some time ago decided to function like a criminal enterprise.

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35 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Except you are presuming that Trump loses.  If Trump wins, they have cemented themselves as power brokers in a party that will never go out of power -- there will be no meaningful chance for an opposition to have national political power after this.  A handpicked SCOTUS, with justices like Jeanine Pirro, will simply rubber stamp whatever the executive branch does.

In order to take over the country and destroy the rule of law, all you have to do is control 2 of the 3 branches of gov't.  Right now, Trumpism controls the exec branch and the legislative branch (at least to the extent it matters to their power -- they control the Senate).  Once the control the SCOTUS, then the entire legislative branch is irrelevant.  No matter what they do, the SCOTUS will take Trump's side, and that's it -- it's over.  The whole fucking experiment ends.  We have an Achilles heel, he's figured out how to exploit it, and that's that.

Why do you think Naomi Rao is writing increasingly unhinged opinions?  She’s basically screaming “PUT ME ON THE COURT AND I WILL DO ANYTHING YOU WANT.”

Edited by Bateshorn
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28 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Why do you think Naomi Rao is writing increasingly unhinged opinions?  She’s basically screaming “PUT ME ON THE COURT AND I WILL DO ANYTHING YOU WANT.”

Yep.  There are actually quite a few people who are functionally performing auditions for a Trump SCOTUS seat, and like most auditions in this place.....

theporncouch.jpg

.....the sole criterion for getting the part is how well you can slobber his mushroom knob.  That's it.  There are no other criteria.  You think I was joking about Pirro.  I'm not.

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59 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's actually what makes the current situation so fucking dangerous.  You are a GOP congressman or senator.  You see two possible outcomes: 1) a Biden win, which is part of and results in a crippling of the GOP as a national party, leaving you frozen out of power for a long-ass time, and possibly facing criminal sanction for some of the bullshit you've engaged in with the regime, or 2) a Trump win, which sees you and your party cemented into a place of power for decades to come in what will be, functionally, a monarchy.

They have to do anything and everything possible to achieve option 2.  It's literally an existential question for them and their party.  And when you are fighting for your life.....you'll do fucking anything.  ANYTHING.  They will 100% support Trump dispatching federal paramilitary troops to seize ballot boxes.  They will support foreign interference and hacking, and will cover for it after the fact.  They will do whatever it takes to cement their hold on power for life.

This is our concern, dude.  It's not just Trump -- it's the entire GOP apparatus behind him, which quite some time ago decided to function like a criminal enterprise.

i mean thats one way to look at it. the other is to say fuck this guy and separate yourself from him and then do everything you can to win re-election and then reinvent yourself as a fiscal conservative and lob mazel tov cocktails at Biden and the Democrats from the balcony. i mean thats what i would do, assuming i had not put myself on the "to be investigated and imprisoned" list for doing a bunch of criming while Trump was in office.

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1 hour ago, Longhorn94 said:

will there ever be a point where self-preservation instincts kick in and repub senators abandon him? its pretty clear at this point that they are all on a plane that trump is flying straight into a mountain. there are parachutes onboard, does anyone use one? or do they all die in a fiery crash chanting TRUMP!?

it might be happening right now.  there was a report about 6 weeks ago saying that if trump's numbers didn't look good by labor day, mitch was going to cut the senators loose to say whatever they feel they need to say to get elected.  don't know if they interpret trump's numbers as justifying that now or not. 

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1 minute ago, Longhorn94 said:

i mean thats one way to look at it. the other is to say fuck this guy and separate yourself from him and then do everything you can to win re-election and then reinvent yourself as a fiscal conservative and lob mazel tov cocktails at Biden and the Democrats from the balcony. i mean thats what i would do, assuming i had not put myself on the "to be investigated and imprisoned" list for doing a bunch of criming while Trump was in office.

Being a member of the minority party in Congress sucks.  They don't want to go back to that.  They won't.  They'll do whatever they can to avoid it, legal or illegal.

Why so many of us continue to believe that anything they do will be even slightly colored by the moral choice baffles me.  They want it all, unfettered, and forever.  Anything less is unacceptable.  If you presented to GOP Congressmen and Senators a proposal to 1) make the presidency for life, 2) to allow the president to appoint his successor without the need for an election, and 3) making congressional and senate seats for life, they would vote "aye," to a person, in a second (note....they'd add some sort of amendment that managed to exclude any currently sitting Democratic members).

They have decided that they will sacrifice this country -- all of it, the whole goddamned thing -- for power.  They would rather be gods of rubble than accountable rulers of a republic.

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Fun with partisan response error. Seeing some major bedwetting regarding this PPP Michigan poll that just came out Biden +4 (48-44), down from +6 a month ago (50-44).

Pretty much the entire shift can be chalked up to going from a DEM + 7 sample to DEM +4 sample. Also, slightly older pool of respondents.. Went from 63% aged 45+ to 66%. 

Field dates were the 2 days immediately following the RNC.

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1 hour ago, Longhorn94 said:

will there ever be a point where self-preservation instincts kick in and repub senators abandon him? its pretty clear at this point that they are all on a plane that trump is flying straight into a mountain. there are parachutes onboard, does anyone use one? or do they all die in a fiery crash chanting TRUMP!?

The calculus is you lose more than you gain by opting out of the clown show- otherwise they’d be out. They aren’t with him out of loyalty or bc they like him- I promise you that. 

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The calculus is you lose more than you gain by opting out of the clown show- otherwise they’d be out. They aren’t with him out of loyalty or bc they like him- I promise you that. 

Also....there is no future for "I'm GOP but I am not aligned with Trump" in the GOP.  The GOP is only Trump and Trumpism.  For fuck's sake, it's not my hyperbole -- the party literally no longer has a platform; their sole position is now just "whatever's Trumpy."  Any current GOP elected official has only one path forward, if they depend on GOP voters for their fate (so, functionally all of them) -- stick with Trump and Trumpism.  And by the way, that will be true even if Trump loses, because it's his party now.  He will control it from his Twitter account and his daily time block on OANN (soon to be "Trump TV").  Kiss the ring, or be gone.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Also....there is no future for "I'm GOP but I am not aligned with Trump" in the GOP.  The GOP is only Trump and Trumpism.  For fuck's sake, it's not my hyperbole -- the party literally no longer has a platform; their sole position is now just "whatever's Trumpy."  Any current GOP elected official has only one path forward, if they depend on GOP voters for their fate (so, functionally all of them) -- stick with Trump and Trumpism.  And by the way, that will be true even if Trump loses, because it's his party now.  He will control it from his Twitter account and his daily time block on OANN (soon to be "Trump TV").  Kiss the ring, or be gone.

That’s not necessarily the case. I’m pretty sure you are wrong about this. When he gets donkey stomped he will lose the platform. Literally and figuratively. It will become (I hope) Paul Ryan’s party (maybe not actually him but someone like him). 

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24 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it might be happening right now.  there was a report about 6 weeks ago saying that if trump's numbers didn't look good by labor day, mitch was going to cut the senators loose to say whatever they feel they need to say to get elected.  don't know if they interpret trump's numbers as justifying that now or not. 

He did that very thing already about a month ago. Told vulnerable senators if they needed to distance themselves to survive then do so.

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2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Collins fucking sucks. But FYI, that isn't a real quote and is nowhere in the article. Looks like that Twitter account took some poetic license and people just assumed it was authentic and retweeted it like crazy. 

it only got traction because it's so fucking believable.

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s not necessarily the case. I’m pretty sure you are wrong about this. When he gets donkey stomped he will lose the platform. Literally and figuratively. It will become (I hope) Paul Ryan’s party (maybe not actually him but someone like him). 

You really don't understand cults, do you?

Stop thinking about the GOP as a political party.  It's not.  Not even a little bit.  It is a nihilist death cult that believes in only grievance and power.  This conventional thinking of it as a political party, as if the GOP was the party of Eisenhower or something, just has to fucking go.  It's irrational and at odds with the current reality.

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4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Collins fucking sucks. But FYI, that isn't a real quote and is nowhere in the article. Looks like that Twitter account took some poetic license and people just assumed it was authentic and retweeted it like crazy. 

 

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

it only got traction because it's so fucking believable.

Well, I neg myself for responding to it, then.  But goddamn...it's literally the most Susan Collins thing I could ever imagine being said.

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