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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Don't forget about the odd votes in NE and ME, which was the point of my post.  NE2 and ME2 win in that scenario too, so it's not all up to NC.  Frankly, I imagine both NE2 and ME2 end up more likely than any of OH, GA, NC anyway.

Clarification:

ME-2 OR NE-2 win in that scenario.  You said it correctly in your first post, but just wanted to clarify for folks skimming. 

Biden will win NE-2.  

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35 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

One of the reasons for the long lines that's making this newsworthy is that this is the first year VA has allowed no-excuse early voting.  In the past, you had to have a reason so this is kind of a novelty for us up here.

I'm pretty stoked for it myself.

 

But Virginia is down here, not up here. Up here are the fucking Yankees in New England. Before anyone brings up Texas, Texas is over there.

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To recap, as things in the Midwest (MN, WI, and MI) continue to solidify in favor of Biden, things look increasingly bad for Trump.  With those three states, Biden has 258 EVs, so he'd need only 12 more to win, with the following options:

  • PA (20) (D+5)
  • FL (29) (D+2)
  • NC (15) (D+1)
  • GA (15) (D-2)
  • TX (38) (D-2)
  • OH (18) (D-2)
  • AZ (11) (D+5)  + ME-2 (D+2ish) or NE-2 (D+?)

Ideally he'd win two of the bigger states.  If the win involves just 1 state or the AZ route, all hell will probably break loose in the weeks after Nov. 3. 

raw

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4 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

"executing babies after birth"

 

I live by four simple rules:

Never get less than 12 hours of sleep.

Never play cards with a guy named after a city.

Never get involved with a woman who has a dagger tattoo. 

And never call somebody else "Crazy" and follow it up with the phrase, "executing babies after birth" 

 

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57 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The premise is that Trump wins all the gold (toss up) states.  So in that map he wins PA and OH.  

I’m aware. But the fact that this is listed as a toss up but PA is pink implies there is a world where PA goes for trump while Ohio goes for Biden. Such a thing will not happen. 

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1 hour ago, Bruh Man said:

I hate the media in this country.

 

This is a problem with dumb people who don't understand BFS industry and just generally don't understand the knowledge, skill and discipline needed to get, keep, and grow/succeed in any white shoes/collar job.

And add on top of that this is a woman not from a target school (though Lehigh is a good second tier) and working in banks. An industry who announced their first woman CEO in the history of all banking, last week (compared to other industries where minorities/women have seen comparable success).

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20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m aware. But the fact that this is listed as a toss up but PA is pink implies there is a world where PA goes for trump while Ohio goes for Biden. Such a thing will not happen. 

So you should just have stuck to the original, and per you obvious, premise that PA went pink and OH went red? This is a weird fucking thing for you to be pedantic about. The guy fucking played with the map to make it that way and you're pissed he didn't flip Ohio too?

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2 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

For any of you looking for ways to help in the voter protection area for the blue team, here's the link to see your options, including poll watching.

TxDem Voter Protection Team

They would really appreciate some more lawyers on the team.  

C'mon, @Brisketexan--what else are we going to do with our lives?

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5 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

The comment below:

 

As usual, Trump exaggerates and is hyperbolic, but I think it's an interesting debate. Here is kind of a both sides I saw from USA Today. To note, some of these babies who are born terminal are terminal upon birth due to botched (late-term) abortions, in a begging the question or begating the situation sort of affair.

“If abortionists do not supply medical care for premature babies that survive abortions, their intent is for the baby to die, even if he or she might be saved with a little medical assistance,” she wrote. “This is to actually kill the baby through a crime of omission.”

However, Heuser said doctors in such cases often determine that medical intervention is not only futile in the long run but would in fact prolong a newborn’s pain.

“The baby is not ignored – comfort care includes things like food, oxygen, pain medication and skin-to-skin contact,” she said. “Everyone’s goal is to make the newborn as comfortable as possible, respect the time the family has with their child, and avoid interventions that would cause additional suffering without changing the outcome.”

The legal situation in such cases varies from state to state. In some states, women whose own health is not in danger are barred from having abortions at late stages of their pregnancy even in cases of severe fetal anomalies.

“Those mothers would be forced to carry a baby to term that they know is going to die,” said Heuser, who cited cases where women with sufficient money have traveled to other states with less-stringent laws.

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4 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

As usual, Trump exaggerates and is hyperbolic, but I think it's an interesting debate. Here is kind of a both sides I saw from USA Today. To note, some of these babies who are born terminal are terminal upon birth due to botched (late-term) abortions, in a begging the question or begating the situation sort of affair.

 

 

Maybe we should leave that “debate” between the mother and the doctor instead? Is this really a political issue?

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5 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Maybe we should leave that “debate” between the mother and the doctor instead? Is this really a political issue?

Is euthanasia a political issue (while also being a moral/ethical/religious/values issue as well)?

I view abortion at 35 weeks for terminal/chronic issues identified in the womb or whatever no differently than mercy death/killing for terminal cancer/chronic pain people. 

It's necessarily a political issue, fundamentally, because there are laws that dictate what is possible and not possible (e.g. in that USA Today article the lady had to fly to Colorado from her hometown where it is illegal on the East Coast in order to abort at 35 weeks).

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32 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So you should just have stuck to the original, and per you obvious, premise that PA went pink and OH went red? This is a weird fucking thing for you to be pedantic about. The guy fucking played with the map to make it that way and you're pissed he didn't flip Ohio too?

Yes.  There is no world in which PA is a pink state and Ohio is a toss up. It's non sensical. It's a moo point.  Like what a cow says.  I like my maps to have some overall logical consistency with how the world works and not a bizarre mash up of random electoral vote totals to try to get to a point.  OH is a state with a red tilt of like 5. PA is a state with a blue tilt of 3.  They are located next to each other so there's not some weird thing where you could have a candidate appeal to some odd regionally diverse candidate.  

So, when you make a map that has PA being won by a republican there is NO FUCKING WAY you should have neighboring Ohio as a toss up, b/c such a universe doesn't exist.  

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Ugh the DE/TE coach from my high school team friended me on facebook and started posting pro-cop shit. I hope he's not MAGA since I respected this man. I always regret my weekly login to facebook to see some of my high school friends and classmates posting hoaxy MAGA shit. It's not so hard to believe that Trump won PA last time...

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m aware. But the fact that this is listed as a toss up but PA is pink implies there is a world where PA goes for trump while Ohio goes for Biden. Such a thing will not happen. 

Did you think he was saying Ohio would remain undecided in the final tally?

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4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Did you think he was saying Ohio would remain undecided in the final tally?

No of course not.  But coloring a map in in different colors is serious fucking business man, ok?  You don't just go off making half cocked decisions like- I'm going to color PA in for the GOP and leave Ohio as a toss up- that either side could plausibly win. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No of course not.  But coloring a map in in different colors is serious fucking business man, ok?  You don't just go off making half cocked decisions like- I'm going to color PA in for the GOP and leave Ohio as a toss up- that either side could plausibly win. 

 

Take pride in being the only person on the board that interpreted the map that way.  

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15 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden kinda killing it right now.  Finally hammering Trump on that tax cut scam. 

I think that's the best I've heard him sound the entire campaign.

Summed up: "Trump doesn't have a plan for anything because he doesn't know what he's doing and he doesn't care". 

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25 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I think that's the best I've heard him sound the entire campaign.

Summed up: "Trump doesn't have a plan for anything because he doesn't know what he's doing and he doesn't care". 

that is fantastic. perfect encapsulation. make yard signs! 😃

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4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Every study I've ever seen from economists who do this shit for a living says that you want to be the front runner and people are going to band wagon along with you in greater numbers than go out determined to vote for the other guy.  This is just bedwetting worries from people who aren't viewing this rationally. 

Yeah--you will see leads that the polls show to be comfortable turn suddenly into landslides (see, e.g., Reagan 1984, Abbott 2014).

And then there is the really weird thing where pollsters ask people in February for whom they voted for president the previous November.  Invariably, it shows that the winner would've won by 5-10 more points if everyone who says they voted for him in February actually voted for him back in November.

46 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

My mother's hometown.  Home of Paul Bunyon and Babe the Blue Ox.

Makin' me proud.

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Yeah--you will see leads that the polls show to be comfortable turn suddenly into landslides (see, e.g., Reagan 1984, Abbott 2014).

And then there is the really weird thing where pollsters ask people in February for whom they voted for president the previous November.  Invariably, it shows that the winner would've won by 5-10 more points if everyone who says they voted for him in February actually voted for him back in November.

My mother's hometown.  Home of Paul Bunyon and Babe the Blue Ox.

Makin' me proud.

Half brother grew up in Mahnomen.  Nothing like walking across the headwaters of the Mississippi and only getting your shins wet.

Still....lotta MAGA farmers up there.  I don't get it, but they are.

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1 hour ago, Red Five said:

I think that's the best I've heard him sound the entire campaign.

Summed up: "Trump doesn't have a plan for anything because he doesn't know what he's doing and he doesn't care". 

What makes it so great is its 100 percent true and even trump’s dipshit supporters know it, they just don’t care. 

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Does Trump know he cannot win this election after COVID-19?  He sold out the working class (just like Hillary). He sold out those who were unfairly lumped in as deplorables (Hillary ran as the working class hero in 2008; she turned her back on the working class in 2016 and it cost her (and the nation). Biden is picking them up in 2020. that’s a huge blow to Trump. 
 

What demographic has to switch for Trump to win?  I can’t think of any significant group switching to Trump at this point. 

aren’t we in the get out the vote phase? 

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1 hour ago, lemonlime said:

 

That is rock solid Republican-Trump land. They grew up on Michelle Bachman and Jesse Ventura. A raspberry soup with not a blueberry In sight.  I am not surprised the MyPillow Minnesotans are all-in for Trumptales. He is going to safe areas. He needs to expand the map.  
 

and those are some brave folks out there showing their blue colors. Some will call them the violent left. . 

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

I live by four simple rules:

Never get less than 12 hours of sleep.

Never play cards with a guy named after a city.

Never get involved with a woman who has a dagger tattoo. 

And never call somebody else "Crazy" and follow it up with the phrase, "executing babies after birth" 

 

what's up, Coach Finstock?

Coach-Finstock.png

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7 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Does Trump know he cannot win this election after COVID-19?  He sold out the working class (just like Hillary). He sold out those who were unfairly lumped in as deplorables (Hillary ran as the working class hero in 2008; she turned her back on the working class in 2016 and it cost her (and the nation). Biden is picking them up in 2020. that’s a huge blow to Trump. 
 

What demographic has to switch for Trump to win?  I can’t think of any significant group switching to Trump at this point. 

aren’t we in the get out the vote phase? 

Yes he knows he can’t win which is why he’s setting up the whole bullshit “the vote was rigged” narrative. It’s all his pea brain and clown show posse have left. 

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I mean everyone here thinks trump is an idiot and in a book learning and intellectual curiosity and overall competence and wisdom standard he’s beyond an idiot on any level.

But what he does possess is an animal like instinct of self preservation and so while he thinks he should win, I guarantee you  right now he realizes he is not and therefore his brain tells him to do anything and everything he can to win no matter what the consequences may be.

He’s not as dangerous as a Hitler type but he should not be underestimated either as some sort of bumpkin like the seal clapping idiots who support him. He knows how dumb they are and will seek to manipulate them in whatever way and method he can. 

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8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I mean everyone here thinks trump is an idiot and in a book learning and intellectual curiosity and overall competence and wisdom standard he’s beyond an idiot on any level.

But what he does possess is an animal like instinct of self preservation and so while he thinks he should win, I guarantee you  right now he realizes he is not and therefore his brain tells him to do anything and everything he can to win no matter what the consequences may be.

He’s not as dangerous as a Hitler type but he should not be underestimated either as some sort of bumpkin like the seal clapping idiots who support him. He knows how dumb they are and will seek to manipulate them in whatever way and method he can. 

This.  Make no mistake.  If he does some sort of calculation where he determines that flat-out killing 100,000 Americans in, say San Francisco, would win him the election, not only would he do it, he would do it as casually as the rest of us make a cup of coffee.

He'd kill half the world if he thought it would make the surviving half love him.  He not only doesn't care about you, he views your existence as worthwhile only to the extent that it gives him something.  You are disposable, something to be used and discarded.

That makes him the most dangerous man on the planet now, and there's not even a close second.  KJU is a more rational actor than he is.

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