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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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Shy Trump voters aren’t really a thing.

“There’s this theory that won’t die. It goes something like this: Some unknown segment of President Trump’s support is too “shy” to admit they back him. Usually offered as an explanation for why Trump’s poll numbers weren’t better in 2016 or why they’re not better now, the idea hinges on Trump being such a controversial candidate that it’s not socially desirable to say you support him, and as such, there is a lot of hidden Trump support not captured by the polls.

Only, there’s scant evidence of this. In fact, there’s some evidence against the “shy” Trump theory.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/amp/

Edited by formermav43
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the story isn't the polling numbers, it's the early voting numbers.  georgia opened today.  texas tomorrow.  a lot of "red" states are seeing lines and surges, and all the data has told us these surges are blue as fuck.  we're not going to see millions of votes, we're going to see tens of millions of votes - before election day.  more than ever before, and that's early voting, not mail-in voting.  mail-in voting will also be tens of millions cast, before election day.  trump is running a strategy that somehow worked in 2016 in the literal perfect storm.  his plan is straight out of the 1960's.

this war will be over before it is even fought.

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Just now, henrygandorf said:

the story isn't the polling numbers, it's the early voting numbers.  georgia opened today.  texas tomorrow.  a lot of "red" states are seeing lines and surges, and all the data has told us these surges are blue as fuck.  we're not going to see millions of votes, we're going to see tens of millions of votes - before election day.  more than ever before, and that's early voting, not mail-in voting.  mail-in voting will also be tens of millions cast, before election day.  trump is running a strategy that somehow worked in 2016 in the literal perfect storm.  his plan is straight out of the 1960's.

this war will be over before it is even fought.

Inshallah.

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9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

BTW, I fervently pray that you are both correct, and my worries are entirely misplaced.

But knowing that this regime and its minions are capable of anything, I discount no awful scenario.  All are reasonably possible.

Sure, I don't blame you for being pessimistic. We all have our theories. 

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3 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

Shy Trump voters aren’t really a thing.

It’s hilarious that anyone would look at all these loudmouths decked out in tacky red MAGA hats and obnoxious Trump tee shirts, waving giant TRUMP 2020 flags, and picking public fistfights with Democrat protesters and think “These Trump voters are so shy!”

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yeah, I don't give a single shit about polls. I won't believe he is defeated until the vote is taken and official. 

This.

I just don't get the basis for pretending that an abnormal movement built on the lies of a psychopath and the cult that declares lies to be truth is going to follow any norms or predictable path.

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12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yeah, I don't give a single shit about polls. I won't believe he is defeated until the vote is taken and official. 

On this, I agree completely.  I won’t believe it until Biden’s hand lifts off the Bible.  It’s why we all need to treat this race like Steve Spurrier in the 4th quarter: keep throwing deep and run up the score as much as possible. See if you can get to 100. If there’s a pink/purple state with even a GOP dog catcher up for election, vote that fucker out.

Edited by Bateshorn
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Look, polls of "likely voters" don't dramatically miss the # of people who are going to vote.  There aren't many "shy likely voters".

I'm not worried about the Democrats turning out to match the Republicans.  I'm not worried about "undecideds" breaking heavily towards Trump.  I'm worried about Trump, Barr & the boys meddling with the election.  THAT'S the scare here. 

It's not that a fair vote won't break hard for Biden, it's that the vote won't be fair.

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1 hour ago, heso said:

Trump WILL pull some crazy shit right before the election to try and make one last swing at the margins. 

Trump’s problem is that he’s already created so much noise that there is basically nothing he can do, short of Biden keeling over, to change the trajectory of this race. He can shout “socialism”, “court packing”, “Hunter”, etc etc all he wants, nothing will change.

He says so many crazy things every single day that people have just tuned it out. It’s white noise.  He can get crazier, for sure, but if anything that will have an even further negative impact (for him) on the election results.

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@Brisketexan is going to be a mess on election night if 10-15% of Biden’s votes are early/mail in in some of these states and won’t be tabulated until way late in the process, as could be the case in some states. Plus however long afterward as the trump campaign files everything it can everywhere to get those votes thrown out. 

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1 minute ago, Bookman said:

I think there’s a lot of truth to that. People are numb and we want the madness to stop.

The rule of 2016-2020: in any give situation, imagine the shitty outcome.  That is what will happen.

Optimism in this era is delusional behavior of the highest order.

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

@Brisketexan is going to be a mess on election night if 10-15% of Biden’s votes are early/mail in in some of these states and won’t be tabulated until way late in the process, as could be the case in some states. Plus however long afterward as the trump campaign files everything it can everywhere to get those votes thrown out. 

Bingo.

There's a good chance that this race is going to be contested past January 20, 2021.

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9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Look, polls of "likely voters" don't dramatically miss the # of people who are going to vote.  There aren't many "shy likely voters".

I'm not worried about the Democrats turning out to match the Republicans.  I'm not worried about "undecideds" breaking heavily towards Trump.  I'm worried about Trump, Barr & the boys meddling with the election.  THAT'S the scare here. 

It's not that a fair vote won't break hard for Biden, it's that the vote won't be fair.

A million times this.  Look at the lines of voters in the Atlanta suburbs, where they're waiting in line for over five hours on the first day of early voting in Georgia.  Or the voters who waited in line for hours in Milwaukee at the height of Covid to vote.   So good side-- people on the left are motivated to vote.  Bad side--both these examples and many more demonstrate just how far the GOP will go to make it difficult to vote.  And I have zero faith in how the trump SCOTUS will rule on any election cases.

Trump isn't winning.  The only question is whether he will be able to steal the election.

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10 minutes ago, Left Coast said:

Trump’s problem is that he’s already created so much noise that there is basically nothing he can do, short of Biden keeling over, to change the trajectory of this race. He can shout “socialism”, “court packing”, “Hunter”, etc etc all he wants, nothing will change.

He says so many crazy things every single day that people have just tuned it out. It’s white noise.  He can get crazier, for sure, but if anything that will have an even further negative impact (for him) on the election results.

Exactly. He just called for Biden to be arrested, and barely registered a blip on people's radars.

"What's that? Our president just called for the arrest of his lawful opponent? Sounds like another diatribe from our dictator. Pass the salsa."

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I hope you're right.  I know that the enthusiastic Biden voters are jumping at the chance to vote.  I just wonder how many of his total "support" are enthusiastic.  I know that the Trump supporters are a cult, and will jump off a cliff to show their love for their God.  So, the enthusiasm gap is still a thing, I fear.

god

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I do not think it’s a question of whether Trump will win the election outright; I don’t think there is any chance at all he legitimately gets to 270.  It’s a question of whether he can keep it close enough to contest it and either win it in the courts or otherwise destroy the country by inciting violence among his base.

Despite the encouraging polls, anecdotal evidence in voter lines that seem to be a good sign for Biden, and early returns on mail in ballots, I do not like the momentum of the last 4 days.  The stock market going up and Trump not dying of covid are bad for Biden.  Potential for more bad shit to happen (Biden getting sick, Biden committing gaffes in the debate, positive economic numbers, etc.) could make it close.  I think there are silent voters on both sides.  Folks who know Trump is a piece of shit, but will vote for him because of abortion or because they are closet racists.  And folks who have never been political before, likely hate even thinking about politics, but see what’s happening and know they need to vote Trump out.

I would totally believe a 400+ EV total for Biden where all the toss ups go +5 or more to him and he wins states like Texas and Georgia and S Carolina.  I would also totally believe a ~280 EV total where Trump disputes the results in every close state and chaos ensues.  I think the most likely outcome is Biden in a big enough margin to avoid catastrophe, but the momentum of the last few days and the fact that we can even map out a plausible nightmare scenario is scary as fuck because the stakes are so high.

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42 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I do not think it’s a question of whether Trump will win the election outright; I don’t think there is any chance at all he legitimately gets to 270.  It’s a question of whether he can keep it close enough to contest it and either win it in the courts or otherwise destroy the country by inciting violence among his base.

Despite the encouraging polls, anecdotal evidence in voter lines that seem to be a good sign for Biden, and early returns on mail in ballots, I do not like the momentum of the last 4 days.  The stock market going up and Trump not dying of covid are bad for Biden.  Potential for more bad shit to happen (Biden getting sick, Biden committing gaffes in the debate, positive economic numbers, etc.) could make it close.  I think there are silent voters on both sides.  Folks who know Trump is a piece of shit, but will vote for him because of abortion or because they are closet racists.  And folks who have never been political before, likely hate even thinking about politics, but see what’s happening and know they need to vote Trump out.

I would totally believe a 400+ EV total for Biden where all the toss ups go +5 or more to him and he wins states like Texas and Georgia and S Carolina.  I would also totally believe a ~280 EV total where Trump disputes the results in every close state and chaos ensues.  I think the most likely outcome is Biden in a big enough margin to avoid catastrophe, but the momentum of the last few days and the fact that we can even map out a plausible nightmare scenario is scary as fuck because the stakes are so high.

The stock market is going up because the polls are good for Biden. 

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41 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I do not think it’s a question of whether Trump will win the election outright; I don’t think there is any chance at all he legitimately gets to 270.  It’s a question of whether he can keep it close enough to contest it and either win it in the courts or otherwise destroy the country by inciting violence among his base.

Despite the encouraging polls, anecdotal evidence in voter lines that seem to be a good sign for Biden, and early returns on mail in ballots, I do not like the momentum of the last 4 days.  The stock market going up and Trump not dying of covid are bad for Biden.  Potential for more bad shit to happen (Biden getting sick, Biden committing gaffes in the debate, positive economic numbers, etc.) could make it close.  I think there are silent voters on both sides.  Folks who know Trump is a piece of shit, but will vote for him because of abortion or because they are closet racists.  And folks who have never been political before, likely hate even thinking about politics, but see what’s happening and know they need to vote Trump out.

I would totally believe a 400+ EV total for Biden where all the toss ups go +5 or more to him and he wins states like Texas and Georgia and S Carolina.  I would also totally believe a ~280 EV total where Trump disputes the results in every close state and chaos ensues.  I think the most likely outcome is Biden in a big enough margin to avoid catastrophe, but the momentum of the last few days and the fact that we can even map out a plausible nightmare scenario is scary as fuck because the stakes are so high.

the market is going up because a biden victory is basically baked in.  read the goldman article.  trump's idiocy crashed the market last week with one tweet.

this past weekend on snl weekend update, jost was like, "wait, this was supposed to be the one thing trump claims he's good at, the economy, and the economy is like 'oh, we're voting for biden'".

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You continue to be an absurd bed wetting

pussy, while essentially denigrating America. You should stop. You are unhinged and wrong. This isn’t a banana republic. It wasn’t in 2016 when Trump was rightfully and duly elected, and it won’t be in 2020 when he is rightfully and duly kicked out on his ass. FFS get hold of yourself- admit you totally and completely fucked the dog when talking about Alabama, 2018, primaries, pretty much everything you could be wrong about you have been for 4 years. The democrats nominated a uniquely loathed candidate and Trump managed to thread the needle in the industrial Midwest where said uniquely loathed candidate either didn’t show and ask for the votes or showed just long enough to shit all over people who should be in her coalition, and then every data point since points to buyers regret up there. 

Fuck man, watch the decency of America come out in this election and then fuck yourself in the face afterwards for being such a cry baby cunt. 
This isn’t close. You see the polls. Now you see everyone lining up. It’s over. O V E R. 

the tone of this reads really mean. It’s not meant that way. It’s more like a slap in the face saying damn it man, get yourself together. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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1 hour ago, Bookman said:

I think there’s a lot of truth to that. People are numb and we want the madness to stop.

Problem here is even if dotard loses and gets a ride on a ship with a cage to the North Atlantic, this madness is still not going to stop.  It may be quelled, but the R enablers and voters are still going to be there.  This fight may last generations.

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You continue to be an absurd bed wetting

pussy, while essentially denigrating America. You should stop. You are unhinged and wrong. This isn’t a banana republic. It wasn’t in 2016 when Trump was rightfully and duly elected, and it won’t be in 2020 when he is rightfully and duly kicked out on his ass. FFS get hold of yourself- admit your totally and completely fucked the dog when talking about Alabama, 2018, primaries, pretty much everything you could be wrong about you have.  The democrats nominated a uniquely loathed candidate and Trump managed to thread a needle on the industrial Midwest where saiD uniquely loathed candidate either didn’t show and ask for the votes or showed just long enough to shit all over people who should be in her coalition, and then every data point since points to buyers regret up there. 
Fuck man, watch the decency of America come out in this election and then fuck yourself in the face afterwards for me in such a cry baby cunt. 
This isn’t close. You see the polls. Now you see everyone lining up. It’s over. O V E R. 

I sense a friendly wager waiting to be made.

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9 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Problem here is even if dotard loses and gets a ride on a ship with a cage to the North Atlantic, this madness is still not going to stop.  It may be quelled, but the R enablers and voters are still going to be there.  This fight may last generations.

Seeing their god lose would hopefully smack the more reasonable ones back into reality. We know Trump voters are pretty much the bottom of the barrel. The racists, assholes, greedy fucks, and jerks are all but gone, but there’s a few good family type folks who can’t see the forest for the trees and they vote for Trump because of the generic “ tax cuts” And the GOP is the “ party of America”.

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12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You continue to be an absurd bed wetting

pussy, while essentially denigrating America. You should stop. You are unhinged and wrong. This isn’t a banana republic. It wasn’t in 2016 when Trump was rightfully and duly elected, and it won’t be in 2020 when he is rightfully and duly kicked out on his ass. FFS get hold of yourself- admit your totally and completely fucked the dog when talking about Alabama, 2018, primaries, pretty much everything you could be wrong about you have.  The democrats nominated a uniquely loathed candidate and Trump managed to thread a needle on the industrial Midwest where saiD uniquely loathed candidate either didn’t show and ask for the votes or showed just long enough to shit all over people who should be in her coalition, and then every data point since points to buyers regret up there. 
Fuck man, watch the decency of America come out in this election and then fuck yourself in the face afterwards for me in such a cry baby cunt. 
This isn’t close. You see the polls. Now you see everyone lining up. It’s over. O V E R. 

aa44ef25-8862-4def-a2b6-e148e24bdad9_tex

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

there’s a few good family type folks who can’t see the forest for the trees and they vote for Trump because of the generic “ tax cuts” And the GOP is the “ party of America”.

I have extended family members and friends with family members where this is exactly what's happening.  This is a not insignificant number.

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12 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I sense a friendly wager waiting to be made.

That happened in Alabama. I was right and he was wrong. He didn’t pay off (and it was $100 to food bank) nor admit I was right and he was wrong. 
I doubt anything can happen here to show him he’s wrong either. He’s emotionally invested in seeing the worst in everything. 
It’s the flip side of trumpism that’s almost as bad as Trump himself. It’s certainly as bad for the body politic. 

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That happened in Alabama. I was right and he was wrong. He didn’t pay off (and it was $100 to food bank) nor admit I was right and he was wrong. 
I doubt anything can happen here to show him he’s wrong either. He’s emotionally invested in seeing the worst in everything. 
It’s the flip side of trumpism that’s almost as bad as Trump himself. It’s certainly as bad for the body politic. 

Dude....I gave that and more to the food bank (that was an easy wager for me -- we support the food bank regularly).  And I missed my call by a hair.  Seriously, a handful of votes.  but in any case, I didn't post a receipt or something, guess I should have done that?

But the key problem here is that you don't see the massive cancer that 1) infests our body politic, and 2) (as noted above) isn't going away anytime soon, no matter what the outcome of this election.....which, yes, is still in doubt.

Underestimating the evil and stupidity inherent in the American people and in one of its two long-standing political parties got us here.  We didn't end up here just because of a few votes in 2016.  It was a long time coming.  And I will ABSOLUTELY admit that I was wrong about things.  Here's a list:

I thought that as a society, we had largely moved past racism and xenophobia; while they still existed, they were mostly confined to shitheels of little consequence.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that as a society, we had accepted the fact that our future was in a global economy, for good and bad, so we oughta focus on how to best take advantage of it.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that the GOP was a fiscally conservative party.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that the GOP was a center-right party that happened to have some racists in it, instead of being a racist party that used the label of being "center right" to grant it legitimacy.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that trickle down economics made sense, and would work.  I was wrong as hell (in fairness to me, I figured out that wrongness well before this admin).

I thought that the American people were, collectively, above median intelligence, when compared to our global rivals.  I was wrong as hell.

The vast majority of times that I have been wrong as hell have been when I have had faith in people, had believed that people would do the right thing, and believed that they had a modicum of intelligence.

I was wrong to not realize that Mencken was dead-on, balls accurate: "No one in this world, so far as I know ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people."  And “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”  

I had faith in people.  Mencken did not.  He was right.  I was wrong.

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19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I have extended family members and friends with family members where this is exactly what's happening.  This is a not insignificant number.

A family member just earlier today posted a cleverly cropped image of an article from the Atlanta paper showing the difference between Trump and Biden's tax plans (51 to 26% or whatever) and was lamenting how Biden was going to tax her out of existence. The problem was that the full text of the article makes clear that those numbers are for people who make $400,000/year or more. She is nowhere near that, unless social security plus subsidized (SOCIALIZED!) housing plus zero dollars of retirement or any other type of income equals $400,000/year (1%).

Edited by BradInATX
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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Dude....I gave that and more to the food bank (that was an easy wager for me -- we support the food bank regularly).  And I missed my call by a hair.  Seriously, a handful of votes.  but in any case, I didn't post a receipt or something, guess I should have done that?

But the key problem here is that you don't see the massive cancer that 1) infests our body politic, and 2) (as noted above) isn't going away anytime soon, no matter what the outcome of this election.....which, yes, is still in doubt.

Underestimating the evil and stupidity inherent in the American people and in one of its two long-standing political parties got us here.  We didn't end up here just because of a few votes in 2016.  It was a long time coming.  And I will ABSOLUTELY admit that I was wrong about things.  Here's a list:

I thought that as a society, we had largely moved past racism and xenophobia; while they still existed, they were mostly confined to shitheels of little consequence.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that as a society, we had accepted the fact that our future was in a global economy, for good and bad, so we oughta focus on how to best take advantage of it.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that the GOP was a fiscally conservative party.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that the GOP was a center-right party that happened to have some racists in it, instead of being a racist party that used the label of being "center right" to grant it legitimacy.  I was wrong as hell.

I thought that trickle down economics made sense, and would work.  I was wrong as hell (in fairness to me, I figured out that wrongness well before this admin).

I thought that the American people were, collectively, above median intelligence, when compared to our global rivals.  I was wrong as hell.

The vast majority of times that I have been wrong as hell have been when I have had faith in people, had believed that people would do the right thing, and believed that they had a modicum of intelligence.

I was wrong to not realize that Mencken was dead-on, balls accurate: "No one in this world, so far as I know ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people."  And “As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”  

I had faith in people.  Mencken did not.  He was right.  I was wrong.

You didn’t post the receipt

so it didn’t happen. You’ve since been wrong about everything. Yawn. And the awesome thing is literally nothing can happen which will convince you that you are anything but correct. 

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You didn’t post the receipt

so it didn’t happen. You’ve since been wrong about everything. Yawn. And the awesome thing is literally nothing can happen which will convince you that you are anything but correct. 

You're clearly right.  The American people are wonderful, kind, well-educated, not racist, and thoughtful, and the GOP is a bona-fide center-right party with our best interests at heart.  Man, can't believe I missed those things.

You believe that Mencken was wrong.  I don't.  

And if you really want me to get the wife to go back and dig up some receipts for donations to the food bank over the past couple of years....well, I'm not gonna fucking do that.  Ask GOLL if I donate to the food bank regularly -- he knows.

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