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Blastfurnace 2020: The Forcefield strikes back


Kavinsky

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While I do enjoy cool to cold weather too, it only sucks if you hate decent weather. Sunny, little rain, and highs that are warm to hot but only last for a few hours make for great weather if you like to get outside and do stuff don’t suck.  This isn’t blast furnace weather. This is “Texas Fall” and it is a pretty good time to be a Texan. 

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Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

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54 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

Very strange indeed.

I am ready for our first and maybe only freeze of the year.

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This September and October are the best I can remember for recent Sept/Octobers in Austin (say the last 5 years).  Normally I think of the blast furnace running strong till November.  

Don’t agree. High 80s with dew points in the 60s suck. Does it sick as much as 100 with the same set up? No. But it still feels like ass.

 

It’s like Miami but less covid and cocaine.

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You don’t hear a lot about Miami cocaine super-spreader events.  I mean, as far as covid...not AIDS. 
 

Texas Autumn.  I get it.  Little too hot for comfort.  We’ll endure.  Could just really use some rain.   Need to shut my sprinkler system off for the season but can’t until probably Halloween.  That ain’t right.  Fishing sucked yesterday too.  

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8 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

It's definitely been warmer than normal, but like you said not too bad all in all.

What I'm not thrilled about is the lack of rain.  October in Austin averages nearly 4" of rain, the third highest monthly total of the year. 

I can't seem to recall much if any so far this month.

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You don’t hear a lot about Miami cocaine super-spreader events.  I mean, as far as covid...not AIDS. 

 

Texas Autumn.  I get it.  Little too hot for comfort.  We’ll endure.  Could just really use some rain.   Need to shut my sprinkler system off for the season but can’t until probably Halloween.  That ain’t right.  Fishing sucked yesterday too.  

Dude. It’s 93 right now. On 10/18. It’s basically been in the 90s or above for 7 months.

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True.  And we've had some brief reprieve.  As a fisherman, we had some spots of good angling.  Mainly, just asking PhDhorn because my grass is charred again.  

 

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Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

Narrator: it didn’t make it to Georgetown.

And yes, need some damn rain. Last measured rain on my weather station was 9/23.
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Forget Florida, Alaska shouldn't be that categorically that far above average over the course of the whole state.  

Nevermind.  the planet is fine.   Massive Tsunami also happening there.  Totally normal for October.  Things are tremendous.  Things are fantastic.  Things are huge.  

Edited by Lobo
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16 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Forget Florida, Alaska shouldn't be that categorically that far above average over the course of the whole state.  

Nevermind.  the planet is fine.  

Dude- read the map again- it doesn’t say what you think it says. That’s the probability that the weather will be warmer than usual for the next 6-10 days- that’s not saying Alaska will be the same temperature as Florida. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

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14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

I think you're looking into that one 6-10 day graph too much. 

But, maybe we could discuss why it's been 90 fucking degrees every other day in October.

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Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  
That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  
You messed up. We all have moments. Own it.
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7 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Jim Spencer mentioned a few weeks ago when he first started in Austin we averaged 30 days year at at 100° or greater.  

The average this past decade has been more than double that number.  

Yeah but that’s sort of worthless with all the new concrete and the heat island effects. Well, not worthless as we feel it, but not as indicative of planet on fire as just us changing our surroundings. 

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Jim Spencer mentioned a few weeks ago when he first started in Austin we averaged 30 days year at at 100° or greater.  
The average this past decade has been more than double that number.  

Yeah. It was posted up thread that 100 is just a number. And I guess that’s true. But imho it is markedly more warm in centex than it was even 10 years ago. I don’t believe we got below freezing once last winter,

The fucking weather here is not for me but we are stuck here till my youngest graduates HS in 2025.
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47 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

No- the more red the part of the map the higher probability it will be a one normal- not the intensity of above normal. The map is goofy and doesn’t tell us what normal maps tell us with that kind of coloration. It’s why I did a double check bc I said to myself- self- how the hell is it as hot in Alaska as Florida when all points in between are cold. 
Hint- it’s not. 

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15 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

Perfect weather for people trying to recover from Rona.   Fucking perfect.   

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

Do you understand how chaotic systems work?  Perhaps notice the landmass that’s 4x the size of Alaska that’s below normal for the next 6-10 days.  Ebbs and flows man, ebbs and flows.  

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

the higher probability it will be a one normal- not the intensity of above normal.

I'm aware that he's reading the graph incorrectly but I would guess that the probability of the temperature being above normal and the expected temperature above normal are pretty perfectly correlated.

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Starting with October 9th this year, here is the delta for the observed high vs the record high (included forecast up to the 25th)

9th -8

10th -3

11th +1

12th -11

13th -8

14th -3

15th -5

16th -17

17th -16

18th -2

19th -3

20th -2

21st -2

22nd -4

23rd -6

24th -15

25th -1

 

Just a brutal fucking stretch. Only 4 days out of the 17 where it wasn't almost as hot as ever recorded for that date. Just one day where we broke the high, but EIGHT days where it was within 3 degrees of the record.

 

Has to be the warmest October on record so far or close to it I would think. 

 

 

Edited by ztejas
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Starting with October 9th this year, here is the delta for the observed high vs the record high (included forecast up to the 25th)
9th -8
10th -3
11th +1
12th -11
13th -8
14th -3
15th -5
16th -17
17th -16
18th -2
19th -3
20th -2
21st -2
22nd -4
23rd -6
24th -15
25th -1
 
Just a brutal fucking stretch. Only 4 days out of the 17 where it wasn't almost as hot as ever recorded for that date. Just one day where we broke the high, but EIGHT days where it was within 3 degrees of the record.
 
Has to be the warmest October on record so far or close to it I would think. 
 
 

Probably the driest also.
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(cross post in winter thread)

So this next front, after a few days of coin flipping and 8-ball consulting, looks indeed like it's gonna hold its weight.  Temps now are certainly looking like mid-50s for most.  Overruning by rain (very light, don't get your hopes up) for 2-3 days, this is gonna feel like a true November few days.  Rain will be light and spotty, not much over 1/2" for most of us for 2 days.  Monday will start mildly enough, maybe even getting to 80° (which ain't bad anyway) before the front moves in late afternoon.

Due to the cloud cover, the nights aren't going to get near freezing around us (they might in the western Hill Country) but it's gonna be chilly and fireplace type weather, most of us in mid or low 40's.  Clearing after Wed. into 2-3 really nice, sunny days with temps in the high 60's-mid 70's.

This is fall, beyotches.

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