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Texas basketball 2020-21: Not even Shaka can fuck this up...right?


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at the end of the regular season, this screen cap pretty succinctly summarizes who we are as a team:

 

A39471D2-BFD4-496E-9CD7-591138924F0D.jpeg

 

the general sentiment around here seems to have gone from "oh no we suck again!" to "hey we just had a pretty good season!" based on our "strong" 6-2 finish. the thing is, we didn't suddenly start playing much better than before, our schedule was just super soft down the stretch. so for me, everything you need to know about Texas is in this screen cap. to summarize:

•of our final six wins, four of them were layups, the other two were coin flips which we narrowly won.

•of our final 14 games, one was always a loss (Baylor), five were always a win (K State, ISU, TCU), and the other 8 games were coin flips against decent-good teams. we went 3-5 in those games.

•our best win and worst loss during gnat time are to teams within 18 places of each other on kenpom.

 

conclusion: we are a middle-of-the-pack Big XII team that neither punches too high above nor too low it's below own weight. any game against a clearly inferior team should be won; any game against a good team is a toss up; and don't hold your breath on beating any great teams. as far as Shaka's tenure goes, it's by far his best and most solid team (not counting his team with all Barnes players). as far as expectations for this season go, it's a fairly significant disappointment, even knowing that Shaka is such a handicap for our team. after we started 10-1 and found ourselves no.4 nationally, to find ourselves now no.26 in kenpom and an underdog in our first round B12 Tourney game can only be labeled a disappointment for me. 

that's a wrap in the regular season. it's all win-or-go-home from here on out. and every game we play from here on out seems to me to be a toss-up at best. here we go. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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Threes are wild.  We win 3 games in conference tourney, we get disrespected with a 3 seed, and we get revenge by winning 3 ncaa games and then game 4 is a coin flip.  

Keeping the three theme, we make a huge % of threes for the next five games.  It most likely all comes crashing down in game 4 of ncaa.  

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10 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

at the end of the regular season, this screen cap pretty succinctly summarizes who we are as a team:

 

A39471D2-BFD4-496E-9CD7-591138924F0D.jpeg

 

the general sentiment around here seems to have gone from "oh no we suck again!" to "hey we just had a pretty good season!" based on our "strong" 6-2 finish. the thing is, we didn't suddenly start playing much better than before, our schedule was just super soft down the stretch. so for me, everything you need to know about Texas is in this screen cap. to summarize:

•of our final six wins, four of them were layups, the other two were coin flips which we narrowly won.

•of our final 14 games, one was always a loss (Baylor), five were always a win (K State, ISU, TCU), and the other 8 games were coin flips against decent-good teams. we went 3-5 in those games.

•our best win and worst loss during gnat time are to teams within 18 places of each other on kenpom.

 

conclusion: we are a middle-of-the-pack Big XII team that neither punches too high above nor too low it's below own weight. any game against a clearly inferior team should be won; any game against a good team is a toss up; and don't hold your breath on beating any great teams. as far as Shaka's tenure goes, it's by far his best and most solid team (not counting his team with all Barnes players). as far as expectations for this season go, it's a fairly significant disappointment, even knowing that Shaka is such a handicap for our team. after we started 10-1 and found ourselves no.4 nationally, to find ourselves now no.26 in kenpom and an underdog in our first round B12 Tourney game can only be labeled a disappointment for me. 

that's a wrap in the regular season. it's all win-or-go-home from here on out. and every game we play from here on out seems to me to be a toss-up at best. here we go. 

The 3 games from Jan 26 -> Feb 6th when we were dealing with COVID and the Feb 20th WVU game just after the ice storm, maybe weren't the best opportunities for us to shine.

We toughed out a big win against Tech tonight, and regardless of the frustration this team exhibits for long stretches of games, we're going to be a very tough draw in the big dance. I hope Greg Brown finds a way to channel his angst and puts that energy into dominating on the court.

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1 hour ago, Hornlover said:

The 3 games from Jan 26 -> Feb 6th when we were dealing with COVID and the Feb 20th WVU game just after the ice storm, maybe weren't the best opportunities for us to shine.

We toughed out a big win against Tech tonight, and regardless of the frustration this team exhibits for long stretches of games, we're going to be a very tough draw in the big dance. I hope Greg Brown finds a way to channel his angst and puts that energy into dominating on the court.

i feel like tonight's game just reinforces my earlier point: most previous iterations of Shaka teams could lose to anyone and then beat anyone on any given night. this team is much more predictable- we very likely won't beat more the better teams in the country, we will very likely beat any team that's not very good, and we will be a coin flip to beat teams #10-40-ish in the country. feels like round of 32 is a floor, and S16 is a ceiling, barring upsets on the other side of the bracket. 

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12 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

i feel like tonight's game just reinforces my earlier point: most previous iterations of Shaka teams could lose to anyone and then beat anyone on any given night. this team is much more predictable- we very likely won't beat more the better teams in the country, we will very likely beat any team that's not very good, and we will be a coin flip to beat teams #10-40-ish in the country. feels like round of 32 is a floor, and S16 is a ceiling, barring upsets on the other side of the bracket. 

1104830636_ScreenShot2021-03-12at1_13_25AM.thumb.png.cc1e225e5a34970315910e79d4f30387.png

Outside of the top 4, I'm pretty confident Texas could beat any of those teams. 

Alabama - one win over a team currently ranked in the top 25 (Ark - they split the series). Lost to WKU at home.

Iowa - Probably favored against us, but I'd take my chances.

Houston - Garbage schedule. Not scared of them.

Arkansas - Possibly legit. They're certainly hot right now. Lost to Ok State, though.

Other Big XII Teams (except Baylor) - We can beat any of em. Have proved it already

Virginia - Tony Bennett's defense and pace probably keeps us at 45 points. Would be a beating to watch.

Purdue - Their lone win over a current top 25 team was 2 months ago against Ohio State. Ohio State is much better now

Fla State - They beat Virginia. And lost to Notre Dame and UNC. Not a great team. 

 

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2 hours ago, Hornlover said:

1104830636_ScreenShot2021-03-12at1_13_25AM.thumb.png.cc1e225e5a34970315910e79d4f30387.png

Outside of the top 4, I'm pretty confident Texas could beat any of those teams. 

Alabama - one win over a team currently ranked in the top 25 (Ark - they split the series). Lost to WKU at home.

Iowa - Probably favored against us, but I'd take my chances.

Houston - Garbage schedule. Not scared of them.

Arkansas - Possibly legit. They're certainly hot right now. Lost to Ok State, though.

Other Big XII Teams (except Baylor) - We can beat any of em. Have proved it already

Virginia - Tony Bennett's defense and pace probably keeps us at 45 points. Would be a beating to watch.

Purdue - Their lone win over a current top 25 team was 2 months ago against Ohio State. Ohio State is much better now

Fla State - They beat Virginia. And lost to Notre Dame and UNC. Not a great team. 

 

 

Bama- a very talented team that several people picked to win the SEC heading into the season. they're 21-6 on the year, they are third nationally in AdjD at 86.6. they are 17-3 in their last 20 games. they are ranked no.8 in Kenpom and would be prohibitive favorites against us.

 

Iowa- not "probably" favored against us, prohibitively favored against us. Iowa is one of the best offensive teams in the country (no.2 in AdjO), and Luka Graza would buttfuck our bigs into oblivion. Iowa is a nightmare matchup for us. they would beat us by double digits with no issues.

 

Arkansas- definitely legit. everyone here knows that i've been championing Eric Musselman for years. he's in a league beyond Shaka Smart's peak, and his team would rightfully be favored over us. they haven't just been winning every game for two months, they've been crushing people. they shit on us in the advanced metrics as well. 

 

Houston- you aren't scared of this team:

 

85D52C90-1350-41B7-9923-6E281231B600.jpeg

you should be. Kelvin Sampson shits all over Shaka Smart and beats him by 20.

 

UVA- Tony Bennett vs Shaka Smart. Are you kidding me?

 

Purdue- just finished the season by going 11-3 in their final 14 games in the toughest conference in America. but yeah, Shaka just smokes this team, right?

 

FSU- here's their recent history:

2017- 3 seed, went 1-1 in the tourney

2018- 9 seed, went to the Elite 8

2019- 4 seed, went to Sweet 16

2020- would have been a 2 seed according to bracket matrix 

 

but yeah, Shaka just farts in their general direction and walks to a victory, right? it's hilarious how you describe literally all of these clearly superior teams/programs/coaches as just a bunch of fucking plebs who the mighty Texas Longhorns will just walk all over. Spoiler alert: you aren't winning any of your tourney pools. 

 

Edited by shadow_operative
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name the last time i was wrong for being pessimistic about a Shaka Smart team. not that my last post even qualifies as "pessimistic". not even you can deny that Hornlover's description of all of the teams ahead of us as complete garbage who nobody should worry about is dumb. Shaka's entire coaching career screams "do not he optimistic!!!!" and yet you continue to find yourself bemused at my lack of sunshine pumping. 

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Stats are great indicators of performance until you get to March and a single elimination game tourney.
 

We aren’t changing now, there’s no hope Shaka magically becomes better than average as a head coach. Our guards are the limited players that they are.  I’ll just enjoy the tourney, not much use in analyzing this group any longer.

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Unrelated question but why in the fuck is the tournament's first weeked Friday through Monday instead of Thursday through Sunday?

Fucks my shit up because I scheduled Thursday and Friday off as usual and cannot take off Monday.

I promise you we will get the Saturday/Monday slot with our games during the day because of it.

FUCK ! 

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26 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Unrelated question but why in the fuck is the tournament's first weeked Friday through Monday instead of Thursday through Sunday?

Fucks my shit up because I scheduled Thursday and Friday off as usual and cannot take off Monday.

I promise you we will get the Saturday/Monday slot with our games during the day because of it.

FUCK ! 

Because the play-in game has to be in the bubble, and they can't start flying to Indy until after selection Sunday, and they have to check every single person going into the bubble for COVID. It's a bit of a logistical nightmare, and impressive that they'll be able to pull it off. 

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17 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Because the play-in game has to be in the bubble, and they can't start flying to Indy until after selection Sunday, and they have to check every single person going into the bubble for COVID. It's a bit of a logistical nightmare, and impressive that they'll be able to pull it off. 

I am a dope for not knowing any of that.

Fortunately those games Sunday and Monday will start mid to late afternoon (hopefully).

Just hope we are playing Friday/Sunday and if not, that we get a late time slot.

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1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

name the last time i was wrong for being pessimistic about a Shaka Smart team. not that my last post even qualifies as "pessimistic". not even you can deny that Hornlover's description of all of the teams ahead of us as complete garbage who nobody should worry about is dumb. Shaka's entire coaching career screams "do not he optimistic!!!!" and yet you continue to find yourself bemused at my lack of sunshine pumping. 

I never said any of them were garbage. I rightfully pointed out that not a single one of those teams has a better resume this season against teams currently in the top 25 than the Longhorns. 

Many of those teams collected quad 1 wins in front of empty arenas on the road vs. teams ranked 40-75. Big fucking deal. Find me a team outside of the top 6 that can match our 6 wins against the AP top 25 (KU, KU, OSU, TECH, WVU, OU). 

And our worst loss is a 1 pt loss to Oklahoma after the team contracted COVID and held practice with 2 fucking players the day before the game. 

You can cry about our KenPom rankings dropping from 4 to 25, but that's what happens when you have to slog it out against teams like WVU, Tech, KU, OSU, OU, & Baylor every night. TCU would probably be a bubble team if they were in any other conference. 

I'm sorry that Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Houston, and Purdue cause you to dribble pee down your leg like you're Mack Brown, cause they just scare you to death.

Sure, they're good teams, but not a single one is demonstrably better than other teams we've already beat this year or better than Texas. 

Edited by Hornlover
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Unrelated question but why in the fuck is the tournament's first weeked Friday through Monday instead of Thursday through Sunday?
Fucks my shit up because I scheduled Thursday and Friday off as usual and cannot take off Monday.
I promise you we will get the Saturday/Monday slot with our games during the day because of it.
FUCK ! 

Shit. You’re probably not the only guy who missed that. If it helps.
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Man, some of y'all have a lot more confidence in Shaka and this team than I do.

Based on nothing more than my eyeball test and watching them play, they seem overrated as a 3 seed.

Blowing leads, going ice cold yet continuing to shoot 3's, getting out-hustled are all on the table for this team.

 

Obviously, I hope they do well, but I think the last few years have taken their toll on my confidence in anything Shaka puts out there.

🤷‍♂️

 

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looking at bracketmatrix.  last updated 3/11 (though i'm not exactly sure when on 3/11, but we'll just assume it was after all the games yesterday):

they have as as the 2nd highest 4 seed right behind ok state.  that have kansas as the third 3 seed.  gotta think a win tonight would solidify a 3 seed.

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6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 

Bama- a very talented team that several people picked to win the SEC heading into the season. they're 21-6 on the year, they are third nationally in AdjD at 86.6. they are 17-3 in their last 20 games. they are ranked no.8 in Kenpom and would be prohibitive favorites against us.

 

Iowa- not "probably" favored against us, prohibitively favored against us. Iowa is one of the best offensive teams in the country (no.2 in AdjO), and Luka Graza would buttfuck our bigs into oblivion. Iowa is a nightmare matchup for us. they would beat us by double digits with no issues.

 

Arkansas- definitely legit. everyone here knows that i've been championing Eric Musselman for years. he's in a league beyond Shaka Smart's peak, and his team would rightfully be favored over us. they haven't just been winning every game for two months, they've been crushing people. they shit on us in the advanced metrics as well. 

 

Houston- you aren't scared of this team:

 

85D52C90-1350-41B7-9923-6E281231B600.jpeg

you should be. Kelvin Sampson shits all over Shaka Smart and beats him by 20.

 

UVA- Tony Bennett vs Shaka Smart. Are you kidding me?

 

Purdue- just finished the season by going 11-3 in their final 14 games in the toughest conference in America. but yeah, Shaka just smokes this team, right?

 

FSU- here's their recent history:

2017- 3 seed, went 1-1 in the tourney

2018- 9 seed, went to the Elite 8

2019- 4 seed, went to Sweet 16

2020- would have been a 2 seed according to bracket matrix 

 

but yeah, Shaka just farts in their general direction and walks to a victory, right? it's hilarious how you describe literally all of these clearly superior teams/programs/coaches as just a bunch of fucking plebs who the mighty Texas Longhorns will just walk all over. Spoiler alert: you aren't winning any of your tourney pools. 

 

if texas ends up playing houston i would love to put whatever amount you'd like on texas +20

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Yeah... Houston's defense is legit af, but I'll take some of that +20, B.

I really don't want any of Houston, but that doesn't mean we can't have a good game and do the thing.

But since we are not currently playing Houston, let's do the thing we're currently about to do. Let's do that.

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Only on surly would a team that finished 3rd in a 10 team league be characterized as "middle of the pack".

I get the pessimism going forward, but it's odd to dismiss on-court results.  The only counter I can imagine is the fact that we didn't suffer a 2nd loss to Baylor, but that's not the only oddity this year.

The real bummer is the likelihood that Shaka will be back next year, and we. are. going. to. SUCK.

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6 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

 

Bama- a very talented team that several people picked to win the SEC heading into the season. they're 21-6 on the year, they are third nationally in AdjD at 86.6. they are 17-3 in their last 20 games. they are ranked no.8 in Kenpom and would be prohibitive favorites against us.

 

Iowa- not "probably" favored against us, prohibitively favored against us. Iowa is one of the best offensive teams in the country (no.2 in AdjO), and Luka Graza would buttfuck our bigs into oblivion. Iowa is a nightmare matchup for us. they would beat us by double digits with no issues.

 

Arkansas- definitely legit. everyone here knows that i've been championing Eric Musselman for years. he's in a league beyond Shaka Smart's peak, and his team would rightfully be favored over us. they haven't just been winning every game for two months, they've been crushing people. they shit on us in the advanced metrics as well. 

 

Houston- you aren't scared of this team:

 

85D52C90-1350-41B7-9923-6E281231B600.jpeg

you should be. Kelvin Sampson shits all over Shaka Smart and beats him by 20.

 

UVA- Tony Bennett vs Shaka Smart. Are you kidding me?

 

Purdue- just finished the season by going 11-3 in their final 14 games in the toughest conference in America. but yeah, Shaka just smokes this team, right?

 

FSU- here's their recent history:

2017- 3 seed, went 1-1 in the tourney

2018- 9 seed, went to the Elite 8

2019- 4 seed, went to Sweet 16

2020- would have been a 2 seed according to bracket matrix 

 

but yeah, Shaka just farts in their general direction and walks to a victory, right? it's hilarious how you describe literally all of these clearly superior teams/programs/coaches as just a bunch of fucking plebs who the mighty Texas Longhorns will just walk all over. Spoiler alert: you aren't winning any of your tourney pools. 

 

Sorry man, but nobody is going to be a prohibitive favorite over Texas at this point in the season. How do i know that? Because we recently played Baylor who is better than all of those teams and the line was 4.5 points. The reality is that this Texas team is one of the few teams in the country with enough talent to beat anyone on a given day. The odds makers know that.

That's not an endorsement of Shaka or anything else. Would we beat all/any of those teams is a completely different question. I'm not a Shaka fan but every team listed above has its own warts. Zaga/Baylor/UM are probably a notch above,  everyone else is just another team with their own issues. You make the horns an underdog to UH and I'll take the moneyline all day every day.  

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46 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Only on surly would a team that finished 3rd in a 10 team league be characterized as "middle of the pack".

I get the pessimism going forward, but it's odd to dismiss on-court results.  The only counter I can imagine is the fact that we didn't suffer a 2nd loss to Baylor, but that's not the only oddity this year.

The real bummer is the likelihood that Shaka will be back next year, and we. are. going. to. SUCK.

Also that is 3rd in the best league.  7 teams are headed to the tournament (potentially three 3 seeds, a 1 and a 5 and a 6) and the #9 seed gave the 2nd-ranked team in the country a pretty good game yesterday.  

Derka can discount our finish, but after we dropped 3 in a row in the middle of the season, I did not think we'd close strong and then beat Tech in the conference quarterfinals.  All of those "gimme" games at the end of the season, like ISU and TCU, were games previous Shaka squads would likely lose. 

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7 hours ago, Hornlover said:

I never said any of them were garbage. I rightfully pointed out that not a single one of those teams has a better resume this season against teams currently in the top 25 than the Longhorns. 

Many of those teams collected quad 1 wins in front of empty arenas on the road vs. teams ranked 40-75. Big fucking deal. Find me a team outside of the top 6 that can match our 6 wins against the AP top 25 (KU, KU, OSU, TECH, WVU, OU). 

And our worst loss is a 1 pt loss to Oklahoma after the team contracted COVID and held practice with 2 fucking players the day before the game. 

You can cry about our KenPom rankings dropping from 4 to 25, but that's what happens when you have to slog it out against teams like WVU, Tech, KU, OSU, OU, & Baylor every night. TCU would probably be a bubble team if they were in any other conference. 

I'm sorry that Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Houston, and Purdue cause you to dribble pee down your leg like you're Mack Brown, cause they just scare you to death.

Sure, they're good teams, but not a single one is demonstrably better than other teams we've already beat this year or better than Texas. 

lmao, "not a single one of those teams is demonstrably better than Texas." okie dokie! 

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Only on surly would a team that finished 3rd in a 10 team league be characterized as "middle of the pack"

yeah, or in reality. we were just underdogs in Vegas and according to every computer i looked at against the #6 seeded team in the league in our opening round conference tourney game, so how do you figure we are somehow ahead of the middle of the Big XII pack? or are you going to make the case that we are "demonstrably better" than everyone in the league save Baylor? 

Edited by shadow_operative
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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I get the pessimism going forward, but it's odd to dismiss on-court results.  

 

is this some kind of joke that's going over my head? you're the one who has reduced "where does Texas stand among its Big XII peers?" to what seed we got in the conference tourney and nothing more, and during a pandemic year where teams didn't even play the same number of games no less. just yesterday i posted our on-court results and the conclusions drawn from them, and they pretty definitively showed Texas as a middle-of-the pack team in this league:

•of our final 14 games, one was always a loss (Baylor), five were always a win (K State, ISU, TCU), and the other 8 games were coin flips against decent-good teams. we went 3-5 in those games.

•our best win and worst loss during gnat time are to teams within 18 places of each other on kenpom.

yet you somehow insinuate that it's asinine to claim that Texas isn't clearly better than all of those teams we just went 3-5 against. okie dokie. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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too late edit the previous post, but just did five seconds of research, and if Texas had actually played BU a second time and lost (a virtual certainty) then we would have finished fifth in the league. so literally your entire case for Texas clearly being ahead of the pack in this league is the fact that we didn't have to play Baylor twice. that's great stuff. "only on shaggy" he says. lmao.

yeah, only on shaggy could someone make such a fucking lazy and disingenuous take ("we're the three seed so we can't be middle of the pack!!!") while simultaneously being dismissive of anyone who dives deeper than our conference tourney seed to assess where the team stands. 

Edited by shadow_operative
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Jesus, Derka.  Shut the fuck up.  You are literally arguing possibilities over reality. 

We finished 3rd out of 10.  That is not "middle of the pack".  Stop bowing up to any and everyone who would dare question you hysterical takes.  Nobody gives a fuck.

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8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Jesus, Derka.  Shut the fuck up.  You are literally arguing possibilities over reality. 

We finished 3rd out of 10.  That is not "middle of the pack".  Stop bowing up to any and everyone who would dare question you hysterical takes.  Nobody gives a fuck.

no seriously, if this is as far as your argument goes then just stop posting. it's so lazy, disingenuous, and lacking substance that it's not even worth posting or debating. 

also, i guess i'll need to post a trigger warning for you every time i use any actual stats, facts, or empirical evidence to support my arguments. maybe take an ativan and try again later. 

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10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Jesus, Derka.  Shut the fuck up.  You are literally arguing possibilities over reality. 

We finished 3rd out of 10.  That is not "middle of the pack".  Stop bowing up to any and everyone who would dare question you hysterical takes.  Nobody gives a fuck.

Thx for a great laugh... 😋  

giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Here's a stat for you, Nancy.  Baylor played 14 conference games.  

Here's another one:  they got beat by Kansas, a team Texas swept.

 

Maybe you should have listened more to your Dad, because you clearly don't understand sports.

Nancy? only one of us is in here throwing a tantrum because someone else doesn't agree with his lazy and disingenuous take. which one of us is supposed to be emotionally unstable again?

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11 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Actual stats":

3rd place Big XII:  University of Texas

we were the three seed in the conference tourney. we finished tied for third at 11-6 with WVU, half a game ahead of OK State, the 5th place finisher. had we played BU a second time, we would have been either the 5 or 6 seed in the conference tourney. but again, that's just conference tourney seeds, and is no way even approaching being a substantive, adult take on where Texas stands in the league. you should be embarrassed to be dying on this hill.

if you want to make the case that Texas is clearly better than WVU, TTU, OSU, and OU then by all means, make that case. i'll be here. but repeating yourself ad nauseam and bashing your head against the wall like a distraught child helps nobody. 

FTR, you have established that the middle of the pack in this league is in fact those four teams, and that Texas is clearly superior to these teams. Here's our combined record against the B12 middle of the pack:

4-5, with winning record against 0 of 4 teams. that's after beating TTU last night. yup, you're totally right, we're *clearly* a level above all of those teams. 🙄 

Edited by shadow_operative
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Got dammit, Derka.

If your argument is that Texas certainly would've lost to Baylor had that game not been cancelled on account of COVID, then you are obligated to extend that exercise to the games that the Longhorns were unfairly forced to play (and then got fucked over by one-sided officiating).

If Texas is allowed to play the first OU game with a full-strength squad and least been able to practice and prepare prior to the WVU rematch, then instead of two narrow losses, it sweeps both teams and finishes in sole possession of second place. That's my argument, and whether you agree or disagree, it's the same sort of extrapolation that you're applying to make yours.

You know I am no Shaka fanboi. I don't think anyone here is, but Texas has a good team and its OK to acknowledge that.

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