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Texas Re-Opening Announced


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Mixed bag.  Hospitalizations down is very encouraging.  Pop back up after declining positivity rate is not.  Obviously, deaths still extremely difficult to see.  Texas looks like it'll be in the top 5 or 6 by the end of the week in total cases, active cases (although data is jonky by state), and total deaths.

 

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7 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

 

Mixed bag.  Hospitalizations down is very encouraging.  Pop back up after declining positivity rate is not.  Obviously, deaths still extremely difficult to see.  Texas looks like it'll be in the top 5 or 6 by the end of the week in total cases, active cases (although data is jonky by state), and total deaths.

 

 

Austin now hitting a bit of a hard floor on our hospitalizations. That's probably not great news, especially if cases are ticking back up; that usually means hospitalizations and then deaths a few weeks later. If you're in the camp that believes we're just going to ping pong up and down until vaccine like I am, then this probably means we're about to head back up. And we never really went back down to our earlier low numbers, so we're starting from a much higher place. Could be bad. Definitely not promising as we head into decisions around school, football games, etc. Basically after starting slow, we have never actually gotten our numbers back under control after we started the initial climb.

austin-8-4.jpg

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Wife and I decided last night to keep our first grader home and see how the virtual option goes. It's going to be a huge burden on her since she's working from home also, but we both agree that it feels like our kids are being used as guinea pigs here. We'll reassess at whatever the deadline is to switch to in-person and go from there.

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23 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Austin now hitting a bit of a hard floor on our hospitalizations. That's probably not great news, especially if cases are ticking back up; that usually means hospitalizations and then deaths a few weeks later. If you're in the camp that believes we're just going to ping pong up and down until vaccine like I am, then this probably means we're about to head back up. And we never really went back down to our earlier low numbers, so we're starting from a much higher place. Could be bad. Definitely not promising as we head into decisions around school, football games, etc. Basically after starting slow, we have never actually gotten our numbers back under control after we started the initial climb.

austin-8-4.jpg

May cases/day was ~52 or so. Not sure we will get back to that without significant shelter in place activity. That means no sports, no in person school, shut down restaurants/bars etc. June was ~220 cases/day, July ~360/day or so (but heavily front loaded). By and large Austin the last couple of weeks had been moving in the 200-300/day band. Not great but at least on a downwards trend from July. If Austin can stay in the low 200s and even move <200 that would be pretty good momentum from the peak.

% positive rate to me doesn't really mean much as I think right now primarily people who believe they are sick are getting tested. Once you have a spike like we were in I think people start to say "if I absolutely don't need to go out I am not going to" and that includes for testing.

Hospitalizations are key. They are finally at end of June levels. The first two weeks of July were shit show. Looks like Austin relatively is getting shit together. How long that holds, who knows. People are stupid.

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1 hour ago, Okie State said:

Wife and I decided last night to keep our first grader home and see how the virtual option goes. It's going to be a huge burden on her since she's working from home also, but we both agree that it feels like our kids are being used as guinea pigs here. We'll reassess at whatever the deadline is to switch to in-person and go from there.

I'm keeping mine at home as well.  To be honest I didn't even give it a second thought after seeing how fucked up our supposed "leaders" have been about the whole thing.

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I'm keeping mine at home as well.  To be honest I didn't even give it a second thought after seeing how fucked up our supposed "leaders" have been about the whole thing.

The only reason we hesitated is because we don't really know how my wife will handle it while juggling a full-time job and keeping our three year old entertained. It's going to be a long semester.

 

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1 minute ago, Okie State said:
9 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:
I'm keeping mine at home as well.  To be honest I didn't even give it a second thought after seeing how fucked up our supposed "leaders" have been about the whole thing.

The only reason we did is because we don't really know how my wife will handle it while juggling a full-time job and keeping our three year old entertained. It's going to be a long semester.

Your three year old should start learning the joys of housework.

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12 hours ago, Okie State said:

It's going to be a huge burden on her since she's working from home also, but we both agree that it feels like our kids are being used as guinea pigs here.

They are, and Abbott who had to clarify that "local control" the GOP has preached for years actually meant state control when he overrode localities ability to enact stricter lock down measures, has now 180-ed again and left localities with the decision whether or not to open schools and possibly be defunded by his party on the federal level.

Leadership- All the power and none of the responsibility.

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The thing that is tough about making the call to send back the kids or not is you just don't know how civilized the families are of the kids who will share the classroom with your kids. Do they care about wearing masks? Do they wash their hands? Many other questions, etc.

We are going to try to send our kids back in two weeks. It's going to be nerve-wracking. We've (the parents) have proven we have no ability or interest in doing the needful and sacrificing our jobs and work, in order to make an at-home-zoom-schooling thing successful.

Further the school has pretty much communicated that last Spring was a mulligan where everyone got participation points and A's and B's just for showing some effort, but this Fall it's suit up or you can/will be failed.

This was communicated when the school said, "You can do the online option until September 30, but there will be an expectation that virtual students keep up the pace with in-person students and classroom and there will be no discount in tuition for choosing the virtual option."

Let's see, we have to balance and strike the right chord of being wise and doing due diligence to de-risk your schooling strategy with at the same time actually engaging in academics that are enriching and developmental.

In that sense, I don't think you can make a bad decision (unless you are just not caring or thinking about it) and every parent will make a personal decision that they think is best for their kids.

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Kids forget pencils all the time and bullying just got easier.  Hey kid, give me your mask.  If I'm a student now, I've got a 10 pack in my locker.  How they're going to monitor the lunchroom when kids are eating, I have no idea (face shields, social distancing, multiple rooms?).  Here's to hoping families survive.  I kind of feel sorry in advance for nurses and guidance counselors.

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9 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

I kind of feel sorry in advance for nurses and guidance counselors.

I guess counselors can meet with students outside. Nurses need to be packing full PPE, and it would be best to move the school clinic to an outside portable.

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32 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

The thing that is tough about making the call to send back the kids or not is you just don't know how civilized the families are of the kids who will share the classroom with your kids. Do they care about wearing masks? Do they wash their hands? Many other questions, etc.

We are going to try to send our kids back in two weeks. It's going to be nerve-wracking. We've (the parents) have proven we have no ability or interest in doing the needful and sacrificing our jobs and work, in order to make an at-home-zoom-schooling thing successful.

Further the school has pretty much communicated that last Spring was a mulligan where everyone got participation points and A's and B's just for showing some effort, but this Fall it's suit up or you can/will be failed.

This was communicated when the school said, "You can do the online option until September 30, but there will be an expectation that virtual students keep up the pace with in-person students and classroom and there will be no discount in tuition for choosing the virtual option."

Let's see, we have to balance and strike the right chord of being wise and doing due diligence to de-risk your schooling strategy with at the same time actually engaging in academics that are enriching and developmental.

In that sense, I don't think you can make a bad decision (unless you are just not caring or thinking about it) and every parent will make a personal decision that they think is best for their kids.

A solid percentage of the population, in Texas, still thinks this is much ado about nothing.  Good luck. 

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54 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

you just don't know how civilized the families are of the kids who will share the classroom with your kids

Yeah, I do. I've seen what they've done this summer, travelling, hanging out with people they don't know, fighting about wearing a mask.
I don't think all of a sudden they are gonna do a 180 and become responsible.

Ostrich Summer is coming back to haunt us.

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That was actually something we discussed when making our decision. There are a huge number of people, including most of my family, who still think this is all bullshit. I'd have to assume 100% of them will be sending their kids back on day 1.

 

That's not to say everyone sending their kids back are in that group. I think there are plenty of responsible parents who are making tough decisions right now. As usual though, the selfish morons ruin it for everyone else.

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A huge percentage of kids at schools will come from families that just don't give a shit. If you send your kids to a school this fall they will get it and they will give it to you. It's inevitable and a certainty and you're just willing to roll the dice and hope no one in your family is genetically or physiologically predisposed to be hospitalized or permanently damaged from it.  If you think you can send them and avoid it you're delusional. 

We have ours ready for an established online school but if that wasn't an option I'd just keep her out for a year. The US is a failing society and we have to get used to things getting worse year over year and not having any confidence in either the government or our fellow citizens. Safety will become a far bigger variable than it has ever been in our lives. 

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That should be criminal. Like the NTSB, I guess everything that comes out of CDC is just recommended, but nothing regulatory in nature. Positivity rate of five percent or below was initially the guidance to open schools not the calendar. The CDC needs to be given some teeth because this was just the practice pandemic and we still fucked it up. The super bug that will attempt to wipe us out is still on the horizon (fingers crossed/Brisket).

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Let me tell you all a story about why Texas is just so fucked.

I know a guy who tested positive 2 or 3 weeks ago.  He became very sick, along with his wife (a RN), his son, his 8 month pregnant daughter in law and his grandson.  All were varying levels of sick, with the husband the worst of the lot.  

He was told before he became ill that he had been exposed by his cousin, who had tested positive.  Cousin and wife had came to their home for a brief visit.

Now, that should be the end of the story, but today found out the rest.  Turns out the cousin and his wife are from the Houston area.  Couple was traveling and just dropped by for a visit.  Ended up staying a night or two.  

After the guy became ill, cousin confessed.  He KNEW he was positive, but asymptomatic and traveled anyway.  Wife was positive as well.  Neither told anyone they were ill, wore masks, you get the idea.

So cousin and wife traveled to another state, infecting God knows how many other people on their travels beside guy I know and his family (some who became very ill) and to top it off.....

....own 3 sub sandwich franchise locations in the Houston metro area.  Worked at all three locations....while positive.  I have no idea on locations, nor name of the individuals.  But they need their asses whipped. 

 

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

As a country, we suffer from such malignant selfishness and self-absorption as to border on solipsism.  And it's killing us.

Our society is failing, and this is a big piece of it.

100%.  People have forgotten, or never learned, what it means to be a citizen.  It carries certain responsibilities.  One of those to be not a completely selfish piece of shit at least some of the time.

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41 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Let me tell you all a story about why Texas is just so fucked.

I know a guy who tested positive 2 or 3 weeks ago.  He became very sick, along with his wife (a RN), his son, his 8 month pregnant daughter in law and his grandson.  All were varying levels of sick, with the husband the worst of the lot.  

He was told before he became ill that he had been exposed by his cousin, who had tested positive.  Cousin and wife had came to their home for a brief visit.

Now, that should be the end of the story, but today found out the rest.  Turns out the cousin and his wife are from the Houston area.  Couple was traveling and just dropped by for a visit.  Ended up staying a night or two.  

After the guy became ill, cousin confessed.  He KNEW he was positive, but asymptomatic and traveled anyway.  Wife was positive as well.  Neither told anyone they were ill, wore masks, you get the idea.

So cousin and wife traveled to another state, infecting God knows how many other people on their travels beside guy I know and his family (some who became very ill) and to top it off.....

....own 3 sub sandwich franchise locations in the Houston metro area.  Worked at all three locations....while positive.  I have no idea on locations, nor name of the individuals.  But they need their asses whipped. 

 

Should be in jail for attempted murder. 

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1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Let me tell you all a story about why Texas is just so fucked.

I know a guy who tested positive 2 or 3 weeks ago.  He became very sick, along with his wife (a RN), his son, his 8 month pregnant daughter in law and his grandson.  All were varying levels of sick, with the husband the worst of the lot.  

He was told before he became ill that he had been exposed by his cousin, who had tested positive.  Cousin and wife had came to their home for a brief visit.

Now, that should be the end of the story, but today found out the rest.  Turns out the cousin and his wife are from the Houston area.  Couple was traveling and just dropped by for a visit.  Ended up staying a night or two.  

After the guy became ill, cousin confessed.  He KNEW he was positive, but asymptomatic and traveled anyway.  Wife was positive as well.  Neither told anyone they were ill, wore masks, you get the idea.

So cousin and wife traveled to another state, infecting God knows how many other people on their travels beside guy I know and his family (some who became very ill) and to top it off.....

....own 3 sub sandwich franchise locations in the Houston metro area.  Worked at all three locations....while positive.  I have no idea on locations, nor name of the individuals.  But they need their asses whipped. 

 

Cousin and wife should be in jail.

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45 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

100%.  People have forgotten, or never learned, what it means to be a citizen.  It carries certain responsibilities.  One of those to be not a completely selfish piece of shit at least some of the time.

I'm getting to the point where I just hope people will put their shopping cart in the parking lot rack. There was one next to me at the store recently and I absent-mindedly returned it before remembering 'Oh! Virus" and sanitizing my hands.

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1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Let me tell you all a story about why Texas is just so fucked.

I know a guy who tested positive 2 or 3 weeks ago.  He became very sick, along with his wife (a RN), his son, his 8 month pregnant daughter in law and his grandson.  All were varying levels of sick, with the husband the worst of the lot.  

He was told before he became ill that he had been exposed by his cousin, who had tested positive.  Cousin and wife had came to their home for a brief visit.

Now, that should be the end of the story, but today found out the rest.  Turns out the cousin and his wife are from the Houston area.  Couple was traveling and just dropped by for a visit.  Ended up staying a night or two.  

After the guy became ill, cousin confessed.  He KNEW he was positive, but asymptomatic and traveled anyway.  Wife was positive as well.  Neither told anyone they were ill, wore masks, you get the idea.

So cousin and wife traveled to another state, infecting God knows how many other people on their travels beside guy I know and his family (some who became very ill) and to top it off.....

....own 3 sub sandwich franchise locations in the Houston metro area.  Worked at all three locations....while positive.  I have no idea on locations, nor name of the individuals.  But they need their asses whipped. 

 

Tis bad. This story could be told by many many times over. Over and over again. Because according to our president it was only a democratic hoax, and now it’s completely under control. It will eventually disappear. Sad.

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I got an email from ny son's high school.  Parents wanting their kids to attend virtual/remote this coming semester have to register online.  It's super easy.  Email said the deadline is approaching and to date only 19% of studemts were opting for virtual/remote.  I was surprised the number is so low.

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“CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas (KWTX) – Dr. David Freeman, the superintendent of the Flour Bluff ISD in the Corpus Christi area, died Wednesday morning after testing positive for COVID-19.

We are heartbroken and grief stricken over the sudden loss of our fearless leader,” the district said in a Facebook post.

Freeman had battled health issues over the past several months, the district said.”


https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/05/texas-school-superintendent-diagnosed-with-covid-19-dies/

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Better believe China is watching this and putting R&D and serious $$$ into a much more sinister version of a virus to unleash in the US next time. This is so blatantly obvious the Achilles heel of the US and if the US gets uppity about anything can be set off to destroy Americans while the rest of the world successfully suppresses it like they have this one. 

No bombs or nukes required. American's blatant undisciplined selfishness will be their undoing. 

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“CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas (KWTX) – Dr. David Freeman, the superintendent of the Flour Bluff ISD in the Corpus Christi area, died Wednesday morning after testing positive for COVID-19.

We are heartbroken and grief stricken over the sudden loss of our fearless leader,” the district said in a Facebook post.

Freeman had battled health issues over the past several months, the district said.”


https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/05/texas-school-superintendent-diagnosed-with-covid-19-dies/

He was 46, btw.
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19 hours ago, DaysOff said:

That should be criminal. Like the NTSB, I guess everything that comes out of CDC is just recommended, but nothing regulatory in nature.

Given this thread and your avatar, is there a thread where I can read some of your stories on this? (I know this thread is not the proper place)

Quote

Positivity rate of five percent or below was initially the guidance to open schools not the calendar.

I saw that Galveston county had 5% yesterday. Does anyone remember how many days in a row this threshold should be met?

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14 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

As a country, we suffer from such malignant selfishness and self-absorption as to border on solipsism.  And it's killing us.

Our society is failing, and this is a big piece of it.

It’s not “society” that should be protecting the vulnerable during a pandemic, but the job of our government. Trump and Abbott are choosing this path and failing the people that elected them. 
 

Oh there’s this too:

Get ready to see these headlines everywhere 

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8 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s not “society” that should be protecting the vulnerable during a pandemic, but the job of our government. Trump and Abbott are choosing this path and failing the people that elected them. 
 

Oh there’s this too:

Get ready to see these headlines everywhere 

At this point the well has been poisoned to the point even if they did reverse course and started doing the right things a massive part of the population would scoff and refuse. The country is broken and Texas is leading the charge 

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54 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

“CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas (KWTX) – Dr. David Freeman, the superintendent of the Flour Bluff ISD in the Corpus Christi area, died Wednesday morning after testing positive for COVID-19.

We are heartbroken and grief stricken over the sudden loss of our fearless leader,” the district said in a Facebook post.

Freeman had battled health issues over the past several months, the district said.”


https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/05/texas-school-superintendent-diagnosed-with-covid-19-dies/

really unfortunate picture they decided to use for the article, jeeze

4U5ZZQF5B5E6PMXNILNCEKZZLU.jpg

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As a country, we suffer from such malignant selfishness and self-absorption as to border on solipsism.  And it's killing us.

Our society is failing, and this is a big piece of it.

So true. There are so many interesting theories one could run with on why it has come to this, but regardless, here we are.

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1 minute ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Hospitalizations continue to move down which, in turn, generally means death should decline.  But this week, our positivity rate is back on the move up...

 

 

I am not sure how twisted up we should get about the positivity rate.  Given the delays in reporting results and people generally tiring of this whole thing, there very well could be some channeling of individuals with greater symptom presentation/higher likelihood of being positive. Indeed total daily tests performed has been in decline since mid July, corresponding to the timeframe highlighted in that tweet. Lower number of tests being performed with equal or even decreasing number of cases results can result in higher positivity. Positivity feels like a soft measure, with lots of various factors influencing.  All data points are valuable, but hospitalizations and deaths have always been better imo.

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6 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I'm really wondering where they're going to find all the teachers to do all this in-class instruction they think they're going to fire up in a few weeks.

At my kids' elementary school, they've had two of the five kindergarten teachers retire.  There are a bunch of others, too.  There's going to be a real teacher shortage this Fall.

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24 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

I am not sure how twisted up we should get about the positivity rate.  Given the delays in reporting results and people generally tiring of this whole thing, there very well could be some channeling of individuals with greater symptom presentation/higher likelihood of being positive. Indeed total daily tests performed has been in decline since mid July, corresponding to the timeframe highlighted in that tweet. Lower number of tests being performed with equal or even decreasing number of cases results can result in higher positivity. Positivity feels like a soft measure, with lots of various factors influencing.  All data points are valuable, but hospitalizations and deaths have always been better imo.

Agree - positivity rate IMO is not the metric to track. Track hospitalizations or track cases in 60 yo+ (that's the group that dies (82% of Travis County Deaths)). Challenge with positivity rate (especially on heels of peak in early July) is that people without symptoms or with minor are like "fuck it" in terms of getting tested due to fears of getting sick. Only people who have symptoms are getting tested thus positive rate increases. Just not a real good measure in my mind.

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14 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:


Any more specific report on cause of death? Headline implies it was COVID related but the body reports only that he tested positive.

Unless I misread it.

From the article Beau Vine just posted:

"On Wednesday, Flour Bluff ISD, a school district in Corpus Christi, announced the death of its superintendent. David Freeman's sister had said on social media that he was in intensive care with COVID-19." 

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm really wondering where they're going to find all the teachers to do all this in-class instruction they think they're going to fire up in a few weeks.

At my kids' elementary school, they've had two of the five kindergarten teachers retire.  There are a bunch of others, too.  There's going to be a real teacher shortage this Fall.

Which is why if I'm a teacher I've been looking at alternative income sources for the next year. You can quit your current job now and wait until next year when hopefully things are a lot better on this front and enter a job market with a major shortage in your profession from all the retirements and hospitalizations/deaths. 

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From the article Beau Vine just posted:
"On Wednesday, Flour Bluff ISD, a school district in Corpus Christi, announced the death of its superintendent. David Freeman's sister had said on social media that he was in intensive care with COVID-19." 

Thank you. That first article was a little thin on details.
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28 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Which is why if I'm a teacher I've been looking at alternative income sources for the next year. You can quit your current job now and wait until next year when hopefully things are a lot better on this front and enter a job market with a major shortage in your profession from all the retirements and hospitalizations/deaths. 

There are potential ramifications with your teacher certification if you quit this close to the school year.

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33 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm really wondering where they're going to find all the teachers to do all this in-class instruction they think they're going to fire up in a few weeks.

At my kids' elementary school, they've had two of the five kindergarten teachers retire.  There are a bunch of others, too.  There's going to be a real teacher shortage this Fall.

They have plenty of substitutes that *checks notes* don't have health coverage unless they work 10 or more hours a week.  

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