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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


justhookit

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Age based view (hospitalizations for w/e 6/28) and Cases and Deaths Measurement start to date. (not sure why TCAD doesn't track all the same). End of day this is still killing old people (85% of deaths vs 11.57% of cases). Cases are growing in younger groups at faster clip then older as >60 used to be 12.5% or so of cases a couple of weeks ago. Bear in mind these are % not whole numbers. So you would read as 80+ makes up 2.39% of cases, 10.89% hosp. & 36.75% of deaths.
 

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I laugh because I lead a Data and Analytics team. Listening to my Data Scientist and engineers discuss/argue methods, procedures and data is entertaining. Never thought I'd see the same type of discussion/arguments here but I am often proven wrong by this site.

I was once in a meeting with a team from a Big 4 shop. They were white labeling a product of mine and flew us up there to brainstorm how to integrate their formulas into our product.

Their analysts argued for 6 hours about the formula they wanted us to build them. The final decision was "let's just use the vendor's default calc".

 

 

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29 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Updated demographic counts. Hispanics make highest % of cases w/e 6/30 at 64% as well as the highest total # (238).

 
  Asian Black White Hispanic Other
3/15/20 0 0 1 1 0
3/22/20 1 2 8 6 1
3/29/20 0 1 7 12 0
4/5/20 0 3 6 13 1
4/12/20 1 2 13 13 2
4/19/20 0 2 6 7 1
4/26/20 0 2 3 9 0
5/3/20 1 3 11 27 0
5/19/20 1 7 12 36 3
5/26/20 0 4 11 35 1
6/1/20 0 10 15 62 1
6/9/20 2 18 40 95 6
6/16/20 1 10 24 70 3
6/23/2020 3 22 70 153 7
6/30/2020 4 30 89 238 8
       
           

I assume those are the numbers for Travis County ... if not I apologize.  They line up pretty close with the Travis County data.

Look at the numbers for the Asian population.  They represent 7.2% of the Travis County population yet in your table they represent about 1.1% of all cases.  Travis County's website shows the Asian population at around 2% of all cases so far.

Mask wearing in the Asian population is more acceptable and a normal way of dealing with outbreaks.  I would expect that this population has been wearing masks here in Travis County more than the general public.  And their numbers are lower.  I am sure there are other factors at play.

That is good news.  It is some evidence that if we all wear masks, we can dramatically reduce our case counts.

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3 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

I assume those are the numbers for Travis County ... if not I apologize.  They line up pretty close with the Travis County data.

Look at the numbers for the Asian population.  They represent 7.2% of the Travis County population yet in your table they represent about 1.1% of all cases.  Travis County's website shows the Asian population at around 2% of all cases so far.

Mask wearing in the Asian population is more acceptable and a normal way of dealing with outbreaks.  I would expect that this population has been wearing masks here in Travis County more than the general public.  And their numbers are lower.  I am sure there are other factors at play.

That is good news.  It is some evidence that if we all wear masks, we can dramatically reduce our case counts.

Yes this is from Travis county. Pulled data directly from TCAD website. Yep, I would say ultimately if people just wore a mask, regularly washed hands and maintain social distancing (no packed bars) then we will be able to re-flatten this curve.

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https://www.kxan.com/news/local/travis-county/austin-travis-county-ban-gatherings-of-10-people-and-require-masks-in-latest-order/

Quote

Gatherings of 10 or more people are banned and face masks are required in public, the City of Austin has stated in its latest order, which takes effect Friday.

Mayor Adler said the new order “takes full advantage of new tools in the Governor’s latest orders making masks mandatory and enforceable while also prohibiting groups over 10.”

“It is now on each of us to do our part – for our communities and for our loved ones – especially this holiday weekend,” he added.

Quote

People should not leave their homes unless conducting essential activities and must stay home if they are sick, it adds.

The City order includes a number of exceptions to the ban on large gatherings.

Exceptions to the order include essential workforce businesses, religious services, local government operations, child care services, youth camps and recreational sports programs.

 

Quote

Meanwhile, the order states that outdoor areas – professional, collegiate or similar sporting events, swimming pools, water parks, zoos and aquariums, rodeos and amusement parks – should operate at no more than 50% capacity.

The City’s new mask policy also includes exceptions.

Children under 10, those with a medical condition or disability that prevents safe mask use, anyone eating, drinking or seated at a restaurant, those exercising outdoors solo or with people from their household, drivers who are solo or with people from their household, swimmers, voters, poll workers, people providing religious worship, broadcasters and people communicating with the hearing impaired are not required to wear masks.

So it's not a shutdown, but it feels like we are no longer creeping there, but walking instead.

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Branch of the family from Cape Girardeau.  Lot of folks came through Missouri on the way to Texas.

Mom’s family was from Flat River (now Park Cities) & St. Genevieve. My grandparents are buried in Farmington. 

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2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I appreciate that he's taking a shine to analytics. I'm guessing he's either a student who is dabbling in analytics, or his job a small on-the-side responsibility for some spreadsheets and/or dashboards. Some of my best client contacts are guys who started out like that and grew into full-time professional analytics roles. I was probably a little hard on him yesterday and @JBJ  I apologize for that. I don't have a problem with people doing simple, small-dataset studies for very complex problems. It's how you learn. But it's a little irresponsible to then present that on a public message board as if you've done something that discovers any sort of truth (and then handcuff an opinion that you admittedly just made up "it's about 50-60% protests" to your data work). It's the same reason that ChiTownDoc gets pissy when people promote bad medical advice. It makes the science of it look bad and it's just not responsible to do with something like a pandemic. 

But anyway, JBJ, I appreciate your intellectual curiosity. I think what you're attempting to do with the protest thing is a bit agenda-driven and you'll need to learn to keep that out of your work if you're trying to do analytics professionally. But keep doing what you're doing. 

The one thing you got correct was that spreadsheets are for fun.  I don't really think you are in a position to patronize me, though.

One of us is likely agenda-driven.  I mean ignore the stats for a second and just think about what your position is.  We saw increased social distancing during this time from everyone but the protesters (per the paper you posted).  Large social gatherings are known to be superspreading events.  We have a surge of cases that just so happens to coincide with large social gatherings.  What's the reasonable interpretation?  You're missing the forest among the trees.

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

"The June Cleaver version"???  Are you fucking new here?  You sure you're on the right website?  This is surlyhorns.com  One of the most deranged and demented corners of the interwebs.  Sorry to offend you and sorry you're having your period during a fun holiday weekend.  

1. I’m not close to new here. 

2. I’m not the one with a history of prison rape fantasy postings.

3. This isn’t anything close to a dark corner of the www  

4. It was just a suggestion. 

5. Calendars are for the simple minded.  I can shoot fireworks with the kids and grill just as well on days that aren’t the 4th of this month.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/travis-county/austin-travis-county-ban-gatherings-of-10-people-and-require-masks-in-latest-order/

 

So it's not a shutdown, but it feels like we are no longer creeping there, but walking instead.

But a business can have more than 10 people if properly social distanced? Kind of vague. 
 

Wedding business just got fucked again 

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49 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Seems like a good place to ask this question. Due to reasons, my parents decided to get my 91 year grandpa who is currently in a rehab (physical) facility after suffering dehydration. Anyway, my parents decided against putting him in a nursing home. They were planning on driving to New Mexico, spend a couple of days, then drive my grandpa back to San Antonio to live out his final days with them. Well this travel restriction is now stressing my parents out. 

How enforceable is this? How will they know how long my parents were there? They're just trying to get in, get him and some of his things, then head home. Shitty situation all around.

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27 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The one thing you got correct was that spreadsheets are for fun.  I don't really think you are in a position to patronize me, though.

One of us is likely agenda-driven.  I mean ignore the stats for a second and just think about what your position is.  We saw increased social distancing during this time from everyone but the protesters (per the paper you posted).  Large social gatherings are known to be superspreading events.  We have a surge of cases that just so happens to coincide with large social gatherings.  What's the reasonable interpretation?  You're missing the forest among the trees.

"Everyone but the protesters?"

One of you is agenda-driven?

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2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

"Everyone but the protesters?"

One of you is agenda-driven?

Yeah.....that was pretty jaw-dropping.  I mean, there are literally widely-reported news stories and pictures posted in this thread showing packed bars and such around the same time that the protests were going on.  So, when you start from a false premise (everyone but protesters was socially distancing), there is no possible way that you can reach a valid conclusion.  Garbage in, garbage out.

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21 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The one thing you got correct was that spreadsheets are for fun.  I don't really think you are in a position to patronize me, though.

One of us is likely agenda-driven.  I mean ignore the stats for a second and just think about what your position is.  We saw increased social distancing during this time from everyone but the protesters (per the paper you posted).  Large INDOOR social gatherings are known to be superspreading events.  We have a surge of cases that just so happens to coincide with large social gatherings.  What's the reasonable interpretation?  You're missing the forest among the trees.

You're evidently a data guy, so let's go with what we've got and not go by conjecture.

Below are two links that show where "hot spots" over the last seven days have been so that you can see where those exist and then compare them to where we know the largest protests occurred.

Nominal increase over the last seven days

7-day rolling average per 100,000 population

I'm sorry, but there just doesn't look like there's much of a correlation between the protests and the current "hot spots" which, quite frankly, has been illuminating and reassuring that wearing masks outdoors in fresh air, which by most accounts the majority of protesters (not the looters) wore, greatly minimizes the spread.

Let's take an honest look at where known super-spreader events have occurred:

  • Meatpacking Plants
  • Prisons
  • Nursing Homes
  • Ocean-going vessels

Here's a list of the largest outbreaks that can be attributed to a single location (from NYTimes, see link above and scroll down for source):

CASES CONNECTED TO     CASES
Marion Correctional Institution — Marion, Ohio    2,439
Pickaway Correctional Institution — Scioto Township, Ohio    1,791
San Quentin State Prison — San Quentin, Calif.    1,483
Harris County jail — Houston, Texas    1,390
Trousdale Turner Correctional Center — Hartsville, Tenn.    1,379
North County jail — Castaic, Calif.    1,366
Smithfield Foods pork processing facility — Sioux Falls, S.D.    1,098
Lompoc Prison Complex — Lompoc, Calif.    1,087
Cook County jail — Chicago, Ill.    1,078
Chuckawalla Valley State Prison — Blythe, Calif.    1,065
Cummins Unit prison — Grady, Ark.    1,060
Tyson Foods meatpacking plant — Waterloo, Iowa    1,031
Avenal State Prison — Avenal, Calif.    1,015
California Institution for Men — Chino, Calif.    1,000
Butner Prison Complex — Butner, N.C.    981
U.S.S. Theodore Roosevelt — Guam    969
Lansing Correctional Facility — Lansing, Kan.    946
Tyson Foods meatpacking plant — Logansport, Ind.    900
Elkton Prison Complex — Lisbon, Ohio    877
Northwest Correctional Complex — Tiptonville, Tenn.    834
Lakeland Correctional Facility — Coldwater, Mich.    832
Tyson Foods beef processing plant — Dakota City, Neb.    786
G. Robert Cotton Correctional Facility — Jackson, Mich.    775
Gus Harrison Correctional Facility — Adrian, Mich.    762
JBS USA pork production facility — Worthington, Minn.    749
Tyson Foods meat processing plant — Perry, Iowa    730
East Arkansas Regional Unit prison — Marianna, Ark.    706
Forrest City Prison Complex — Forrest City, Ark.    699
South Woods State Prison — Cumberland County, N.J.    693
Seaboard Foods pork processing plant — Guymon, Okla.    654
Miami-Dade County jail — Miami, Fla.    623
Bledsoe County Correctional Complex — Pikeville, Tenn.    617
Sterling Correctional Facility — Sterling, Colo.    596
Tyson Foods pork processing plant — Storm Lake, Iowa    591
Parnall Correctional Facility — Jackson, Mich.    582
Tyson Foods meat processing facility — Wilkesboro, N.C.    570
Men's Central Jail — Los Angeles, Calif.    568
Dallas County jail — Dallas, Texas    565
Pitchess Detention Center — Castaic, Calif.    548
Michael Unit prison — Tennessee Colony, Texas    495
Triumph Foods meat processing facility — St. Joseph, Mo.    490
Estelle Unit prison — Huntsville, Texas    484
Neuse Correctional Institution — Goldsboro, N.C.    480
Beauford H. Jester III Unit prison — Richmond, Texas    470
William Clements Unit prison — Amarillo, Texas    464
Bexar County jail — San Antonio, Texas    459
Adult Diagnostic and Treatment Center — Avenel, N.J.    455
Wallace Pack Unit prison — Navasota, Texas    453
Louisiana Correctional Institute for Women — St. Gabriel, La.    446
Otero County Prison Facility — Chaparral, N.M.    445
Brighton Rehabilitation & Wellness Center — Beaver, Pa.    441
Garden State Youth Correctional Facility — Burlington County, N.J.    423
Green River Correctional Complex — Central City, Ky.    417
John Middleton Transfer Facility prison — Abilene, Texas    406
Ouachita River Unit prison — Malvern, Ark.    406

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It was actually one of the key findings of the paper that Brad posted.

Social distancing and avoidance behaviors among non-protesters as a group increased significantly in counties with protests compared to social distancing practices in counties without protests. 

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8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Let's take an honest look at where known super-spreader events have occurred:

  • Meatpacking Plants
  • Prisons
  • Nursing Homes
  • Ocean-going vessels

 

I think that everyone will concede that mass gatherings in outdoor areas with mask wearing is less problematic than prison or a nursing home. 

 

Mr. Adler, open that park!

 

EvergreenWelldocumentedLarva-size_restri

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I get such tired head over people having to take one side or the other on the protest/social distancing thing when the reality is that it's probably a little but of this and a little bit of that and I would think logically when you put mass protests together in places where reopening had happened faster or social distancing had relaxed it was/is likely a toxic mix.  Neither is solely to blame, neither is solely blameless.....nuance and reason always escaping us.  

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

 

I think that everyone will concede that mass gatherings in outdoor areas with mask wearing is less problematic than prison or a nursing home. 

depends how you feel about rape...

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

It was actually one of the key findings of the paper that Brad posted.

Social distancing and avoidance behaviors among non-protesters as a group increased significantly in counties with protests compared to social distancing practices in counties without protests. 

That makes intuitive sense. It didn't personally change my behaviors, but I can certainly see how someone wouldn't want to get caught out in them. Again, all the evidence that we have before us right now, one month later, seems to indicate that the protests did not directly cause widespread outbreaks.

They may, on the other hand, have caused those watching the protests on teevee feel like it was safe to go out in their towns though. "See Mildred. If all those people are protesting, then why can't we go eat at Chili's? I dunno, but I can see how there might have been some influence on lowering our collective guards after them.

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3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

They may, on the other hand, have caused those watching the protests on teevee feel like it was safe to go out in their towns though. "See Mildred. If all those people are protesting, then why can't we go eat at Chili's? I dunno, but I can see how there might have been some influence on lowering our collective guards after them.

I agree with this.  I think that public health officials undermined their own credibility with the inconsistent posture and messaging. 

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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

I think that everyone will concede that mass gatherings in outdoor areas with mask wearing is less problematic than prison or a nursing home. 

 

Mr. Adler, open that park!

 

EvergreenWelldocumentedLarva-size_restri

I agree. Being outside and in our local parks is probably the physically and mentally healthiest thing we could do. Cities are probably calling for their closures because they're one of the few places they actually can have some control and demonstrate that they're doing something since municipalities can't shut down bars/restos. Big destinations like beaches, on the other hand, I can see shutting down because they attract large numbers of people from elsewhere who would likely congregate in bars/restos after spending the day outdoors.

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I agree with this.  I think that public health officials undermined their own credibility with the inconsistent posture and messaging. 

Inconsistent message from public health officials is a huge deal. I figured a while ago I can’t trust what those guys say, because either they don’t really know but are trying to sound definitive, or they are spinning a narrative deemed for the public good. Politicians, any truth they tell is purely coincidental to the message they are delivering. 
 

In my own county, the PHO has been sounding the alarm about the 168% increase in cases this week. When I asked for the testing data he did provide a link and it showed a flat positive % rate for all of June. Also there’s zero hospitalizations at this time. So maybe include those details in your update instead of WE WENT FROM 20 TO 45 CASES THIS WEEK OMG PEOPLE WEAR YOUR MASKS! 
“Hey, if we all wear masks while indoors around strangers and wash our hands often, we should be able to keep this under control” apparently doesn’t work for him. 

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3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Inconsistent message from public health officials is a huge deal. I figured a while ago I can’t trust what those guys say, because either they don’t really know but are trying to sound definitive, or they are spinning a narrative deemed for the public good. Politicians, any truth they tell is purely coincidental to the message they are delivering. 
 

In my own county, the PHO has been sounding the alarm about the 168% increase in cases this week. When I asked for the testing data he did provide a link and it showed a flat positive % rate for all of June. Also there’s zero hospitalizations at this time. So maybe include those details in your update instead of WE WENT FROM 20 TO 45 CASES THIS WEEK OMG PEOPLE WEAR YOUR MASKS! 
“Hey, if we all wear masks while indoors around strangers and wash our hands often, we should be able to keep this under control” apparently doesn’t work for him. 

Every level of government from the feds, states, counties, on down to cities need to be have a consistent message and standardized approach with clear metrics for how we tackle this thing so that we can get on with our lives. The conflicting approaches and confusing messaging has fucked us over in this country compared to our peers.

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18 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Again, all the evidence that we have before us right now, one month later, seems to indicate that the protests did not directly cause widespread outbreaks.

To me this is by far the most notable development we've had up up until the recent flare-ups. I don't see a lot of media reporting on this or even asking questions about it, but there almost has to be greater immunity in the northeast than we would expect. The NJ beaches have been open for six weeks and yet numbers in those counties, along with big cities that flock there, have not jumped up.

I hope this is pertinent to Texas, because regardless of the cause(s), it may give some hope that if you ride this out for a few weeks, but follow up with continued mask-wearing and distancing, you can start to see the other side of this shit.

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2 minutes ago, Bartles said:

To me this is by far the most notable development we've had up up until the recent flare-ups. I don't see a lot of media reporting on this or even asking questions about it, but there almost has to be greater immunity in the northeast than we would expect. The NJ beaches have been open for six weeks and yet numbers in those counties, along with big cities that flock there, have not jumped up.

I hope this is pertinent to Texas, because regardless of the cause(s), it may give some hope that if you ride this out for a few weeks, but follow up with continued mask-wearing and distancing, you can start to see the other side of this shit.

Let's keep our fingers crossed. As we gain more evidence, we'll hopefully get smarter on how to going forward. If we continue to not see flare ups in the Bos-Wash corridor, as well as across Europe, we can gain more confidence. Of course, we're also seeing that those countries in the Far East with social norms promoting mask wearing have likely helped them avoid the brunt of this plague without having to shut all the shit down.

It looks increasingly likely we have a relatively straightforward path, so let's follow it and not go wandering off in the tall grass like doofuses and get snake bit (again).

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10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Every level of government from the feds, states, counties, on down to cities need to be have a consistent message and standardized approach with clear metrics for how we tackle this thing so that we can get on with our lives. The conflicting approaches and confusing messaging has fucked us over in this country compared to our peers.

100% agree with this.  We've had pretty poor messaging from the the start, which causes a ton of confusion about what's what.

Mandates aren't going to get people to wear masks.  We have to be convinced why it's important to wear masks.  Los Angeles mandated masks way back in April and they're still in a shitty situation.

I'm only just now starting to see some good, easy-to-follow ads about why we should wear a mask.  Can't remember which of the threads it was on, but the one with the four sets of a couple talking to each other with percent chance of spread per masking situation is great.  Should've been produced months ago even if the percentages are bullshit.

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41 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

I get such tired head over people having to take one side or the other on the protest/social distancing thing when the reality is that it's probably a little but of this and a little bit of that and I would think logically when you put mass protests together in places where reopening had happened faster or social distancing had relaxed it was/is likely a toxic mix.  Neither is solely to blame, neither is solely blameless.....nuance and reason always escaping us.  

Careful with that kind of talk around here.  Entirely too reasonable for surly.   

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18 minutes ago, Bartles said:

To me this is by far the most notable development we've had up up until the recent flare-ups. I don't see a lot of media reporting on this or even asking questions about it, but there almost has to be greater immunity in the northeast than we would expect. The NJ beaches have been open for six weeks and yet numbers in those counties, along with big cities that flock there, have not jumped up.

I hope this is pertinent to Texas, because regardless of the cause(s), it may give some hope that if you ride this out for a few weeks, but follow up with continued mask-wearing and distancing, you can start to see the other side of this shit.

Correct.   Just hasn’t burned through Texas and much of the south quite yet.   

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9 minutes ago, smoky said:

100% agree with this.  We've had pretty poor messaging from the the start, which causes a ton of confusion about what's what.

Mandates aren't going to get people to wear masks.  We have to be convinced why it's important to wear masks.  Los Angeles mandated masks way back in April and they're still in a shitty situation.

I'm only just now starting to see some good, easy-to-follow ads about why we should wear a mask.  Can't remember which of the threads it was on, but the one with the four sets of a couple talking to each other with percent chance of spread per masking situation is great.  Should've been produced months ago even if the percentages are bullshit.

This the best demonstration I've seen that most of aggy could understand.

rawImage.png

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Just now, Iceman said:

whoever made that chart has never worked a shift in a convenience store or retail in general.

Piss is still going in the floor.   Guaranteed.

That's one of the reasons why we've had the "no shirt, no shoes, no service" rule going back as far as I can remember. As a kid in elementary school, that pissed me off a lot when I ran around shirtless and shoeless most of the summer. As a grown man with a smidgen of learned wisdom, I understand it better now. 

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  • immamac changed the title to COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

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