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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:
18 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:
Well that’d be fine if schools weren’t starting in person instruction and with Labor Day around the corner.  I’m going to wager the hospitalization curve across TX won’t be a steady decline 

Kids don't get Covid

Ask my wife's friends - only "other people" get COVID.

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I have a really good memory and a character flaw that when I watch someone saying stupid things for a long time, I like to remind them.  You’re welcome to ignore me.  I will never get tired of saying Kung Flu, hoax, or it’s the flu for the rest of my time here.

And I am legitimately pissed we’re not going to have football this fall.

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6 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Outstanding this is stuck in your head after a month and a half. Love to hear your explanation for why it triggers you so and you can’t seem to let it go. 

Because you thought that the data was fascinating and merited detailed commentary when it suited your single-minded agenda, and you went radio silent as soon as the data changed and no longer supported your agenda.  It was actually pretty amusing to watch.

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4 hours ago, B00M said:

AUSTIN (KXAN) — With active cases of COVID-19 in slight decline around Texas, a projection by modelers at the University of Texas at Austin raises new concerns. It suggests there will be 15,000 more deaths in Texas over the next three weeks.

The model by UT’s College of Natural Sciences predicts that more than 23,000 Texans will die as a result of COVID-19 by Aug. 31. Currently 8,459 Texans have died since the pandemic began. The predicted escalation would represent a 177% increase by Aug. 31.

You didn't link the story, but it's pretty clear the modelers think the model could be wrong.

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/ut-model-predicts-sharp-climb-in-texas-covid-19-deaths-by-end-of-august/

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UT modelers base their projection on current social distancing data they glean from geolocation cell phone data. An anomaly in the data may account for the high prediction. On July 27th, the state reported 1,202 deaths. The modelers believe this may be causing something unusual happening in their model.

 

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16 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Outstanding this is stuck in your head after a month and a half. Love to hear your explanation for why it triggers you so and you can’t seem to let it go. 

You magically got bored of it the moment the numbers started dramatically going up. Even if it wasn't in bad faith, you have to admit the optics of that are horrible.

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Because you thought that the data was fascinating and merited detailed commentary when it suited your single-minded agenda, and you went radio silent as soon as the data changed and no longer supported your agenda.  It was actually pretty amusing to watch.

Eh, I thought he did the daily update because the Travis county dashboard was limited, so it only showed the hospitalized number for that day. And he stopped doing it when the Travis county dashboard got updated so it showed hospitalizations vs time. Maybe I'm misremembering but I try to give folks the benefit of the doubt.

 

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1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

The real ballgame is what happens from mid-August through early October.  How does behavior change when college kids are back on campus, some kids are back in school, and some colleges are trying to host tens of thousands of people at football games?   I think we have learned to gradually beat back the virus the way we are living this summer, but life is about to change because the calendar says it is time to change.  Our reaction to that will drive the numbers in October and November, which could either dwarf August numbers or decay to not much, based on behavior.

Not just schools, but Labor Day weekend.   We've had really hot weather, as usual these days, and things are loosening up/people are getting tired, so a three day weekend will come at the perfect time.  

I wonder if that's partly why AISD pushed back the start of school then, with 4 weeks of virtual so they can get a grasp on Labor Day will play out.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not just schools, but Labor Day weekend.   We've had really hot weather, as usual these days, and things are loosening up/people are getting tired, so a three day weekend will come at the perfect time.  

I wonder if that's partly why AISD pushed back the start of school then, with 4 weeks of virtual so they can get a grasp on Labor Day will play out.

Yes, I think it's likely that played a part in the decision.

 

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1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Kids don't get Covid

You joke, but plenty are still beating that drum.   It's the summer when many are home.  We can check in on a small sample size.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html

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Just as thousands more students return to classrooms this week, another study shows how easily children can get coronavirus.  More than 97,000 children in the US tested positive for coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, according to a new report published by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children's Hospital Association.

The researchers found a 40% increase in child coronavirus cases in the states and cities that were studied during those two weeks, with a 16% increase in covid-related posts on a University of Texas Longhorns fan site, SurlyHorns.com.

The age range for children differed by state, with some defining children as only those up to age 14 and one state -- Alabama -- pushing the limit to 24.  Researchers note that Alabama is also known for pushing the limit on what constitutes incest.

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The new study, along with previous research, directly contradicts some Surlyhorns.com posters' claims that children are "almost immune" to Covid-19.

While more classrooms are scheduled to reopen this week, some students who just started the school year must go back to virtual learning because of new infections among students and teachers, even as some who don't understand things like science, claim that all of this is impossible.

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Yet many Americans still aren't heeding the basic advice that would significantly reduce the spread -- and would help get more students back into classrooms safely, doctors say.

"We're still generating 50,000 to 70,000 new cases a day, 1,000 Americans are dying every day," said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. "This is all wholly preventable.  And we are less than two months away from Texas A&M University's plans to fill a football stadium with over 50,000 fans, in an effort to win an entry in the Guinness Book of World Records for most covid cases to be traced to a single event. "

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And many Americans are now moving around as much as they did before the pandemic, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. 

"If you look at the mobility data collected from cell phones in many parts of the country, we're almost back to pre-Covid levels of mobility," Murray said. "So we're just not being as cautious as other people are in other countries.  In fact, in July alone, we found that almost 70% of Texans visited Colorado for a vacation."

 

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12 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It lets them miss out on the spike that is coming and then they can announce remote school for the first half of the year with minimal pushback.

I feel like there's a lot of this going on.  We want to do this but lack the courage to face the blowback - hopefully someone else will do it first.  Let's wait and see.

But we get the leaders we deserve, I guess.

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A friend who teaches middle school said they are going to shutdown all of their campuses after their first positive case and then go in to remote school for a quarantine period and then try to reopen again.  They are going to be open for a couple of days before the open and closing cycle begins.  It seems incredibly silly to go through the motions like that.  It's better than a damn the torpedoes approach though.

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's very convenient.   Obviously they needed time to finish training teachers and getting the technology in place for kids who can't afford it.  But it's a nice little buffer for that holiday.

In LISD they've already got the technology and plan covered, so they're not delaying the official start.  It's still 8/13.  The plan is first 3 weeks online-only, until 9/8, and then reevaluate.  I'll be surprised if, at that point, they don't kick the can further down the road and say the next evaluation will be 10/15 or something. And then 11/20.  And then the entire Fall will be online-only.  It's just their way of softening up the resistance to an entire semester/year of online-only.

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Divorce filings down this summer in Travis and Williamson Counties versus a year ago (50%+ in Travis, 40%+ in Wilco).

https://www.kxan.com/news/divorce-during-the-pandemic-which-way-are-the-numbers-trending/

Did not see a corresponding spike in homicide or murder-suicides, but apparently call to divorce attorneys have been way up.

Quote

Calls to divorce law firms have increased so much that Davis has been forced to hire three new attorneys.

“We’ve got a lot of people who are looking for information,” she said. “Whether or not they’re choosing to move forward with ending their relationship, proceeding with the divorce, isn’t clear yet, but they’re certainly reaching out and trying to get more data, information about the process.”

Davis also emphasized that while the courts are taking longer to process divorce cases, they’re making exceptions and expediting emergency cases.

 

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Speaking of kids, and keep in mind that these are numbers at a time when many childcare centers were closed

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/thousands-of-child-care-centers-still-closed-due-to-covid-19/

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According to the Texas Health and Human Services Commission, since March there’s been 3,098 reported positive cases of COVID-19 across 1,801 child care operations. The vast majority are staff which make up 2,055 of the cases, but 1,043 children have also tested positive.  

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The state’s data shows that nearly 4,800 child care centers have closed between February and now. The number represents about 28% of all operations in Texas that haven’t reopened yet. 

Quote

“The cost of providing care safely under COVID conditions is adding costs of about $300 to $900 per month — per child – and that’s not sustainable for the child care operation to cover those costs, and it’s not sustainable to pass the costs on to families with young children,” said McHorse. 

 

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36 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Divorce filings down this summer in Travis and Williamson Counties versus a year ago (50%+ in Travis, 40%+ in Wilco).

Divorce sucks no matter the circumstances, but I'm grateful that I got mine wrapped up before the end of 2019.  I have two attorney friends going through divorce right now.  Awful situation for them and their kids.

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Austin ARC is looking for volunteers for covid-19 vaccine trial:

https://www.austinregionalclinic.com/news-and-events/article/news/arc-clinical-research-contributes-to-covid-19-vaccine-trial-news

ARC News & Events Archive

ARC Clinical Research contributes to COVID-19 Vaccine Trial

 
August 07, 2020

 

 

 

ARC will recruit 250 ARC patients from across Central Texas to enroll in this late phase clinical trial, intended to prove the safety and efficacy of the sponsor’s vaccine compound and potentially enable this sponsor to be the first to bring a vaccine to market. 

Dr. Gretchen Crook, Principal Investigator for ARC Clinical Research, noted “It is the top priority of the United States and the world to find a successful vaccine to prevent the infection and spread of COVID-19.  This vaccine candidate has the potential to save lives and allow us to return to a way of life that will restore our economy, re-connect our friendships, and continue activities we all enjoy.  ARC Clinical Research was selected as a partner in this study based on our long track record of conducting high quality trials and our speed in enrolling study participants.”

Be a part of history

“This study offers an opportunity to be a part of history and benefit humankind.  There are 7 billion people in our world who will need access to a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 infection, and ARC Clinical Research is thrilled to have a role in bringing a vaccine to Americans”, says Jeff Repper, Director of ARC Clinical Research.

Participants will be compensated for their time and contributions to the clinical study. All COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial services will be delivered at ARC Clinical Research Wilson Parke, located at 11714 Wilson Parke Ave., Suite 150 in Austin’s Four Points neighborhood. 

ARC Clinical Research is a division of Austin Regional Clinic, a physician-owned multispecialty medical group with 350 physicians and clinicians committed to providing comprehensive healthcare services throughout the greater Austin area. 

To start the enrollment process for the COVID-19 vaccine study, please go to ARCclinicalresearch.com and click the orange [Request to Participate] button or call 512-225-5931.

Strict Coronavirus safety measures for care and research trials

In response to COVID-19, ARC has implemented strict safety measures at all clinics and research facilities to ensure that our patients, staff, and physicians remain safe. 

Everyone is screened before entering our clinics, sick and well patients wait in separate spaces with symptomatic patients most often waiting in cars, exam rooms are cleaned and disinfected after each visit, and ARC remains fully stocked with personal protective equipment (PPE). ARC ensures a safe environment to care for all patients and conduct clinical trials. ARC currently participates in seven other research studies at four ARC Clinical Research facilities.

To date, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported almost 5 million COVID-19 cases and over 157,000 deaths in the US while the World Health Organization (WHO) reports more than 700,000 deaths worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dr. Gretchen L. Crook, Principal Investigator - Background

Gretchen L. Crook, MD, joined Austin Regional Clinic in 2002. She joined ARC Clinical Research at the inception in 2017 and stepped into the Lead Physician role in 2019. Under Dr. Crook’s leadership, ARC has participated in over 35 clinical trials and is currently working on 23 studies for such health conditions as lipid management, inflammatory diseases, infectious disease prevention, uterine fibroids, and others. ARC also participates in pediatric studies, including studies in migraines, infant formula, and two meningococcal vaccine studies.

“This is one of many clinical trials currently being conducted by ARC to look at new ways to prevent, detect, or treat diseases that may benefit patients in Central Texas. We are particularly excited to be part of a vaccine trial can literally change the world.”

Dr. Crook, a Family Doctor for almost 20 years, earned her medical degree at the University of Florida College of Medicine before her residency at University of Florida Family Practice Residency Program.  In addition to Principal Investigator, Dr. Crook serves as a Same-Day Care doctor for ARC.  Dr. Crook is a member of the American Academy of Family Physicians and the Travis County Medical Society. She lives in Austin, TX with her family.

ARC Clinical Research Overview

ARC Clinical Research is a network of research clinics that works in partnership with sponsors, typically pharmaceutical, immunotherapy, or medical device companies, to execute clinical studies. In determining which studies to participate in, ARC focuses on those that will most benefit the Central Texas community and looks to participate in clinical research programs that look at new ways to prevent, detect, and treat diseases. The focus is on adult and pediatric clinical studies for preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic purposes.  With four research offices in and around Austin, ARC Clinical Research offers clinical research opportunities to the Central Texas area.

For more information, visit ARCclinicalresearch.com.

Austin Regional Clinic Overview

Austin Regional Clinic is a multispecialty medical group committed to providing comprehensive healthcare services throughout the greater Austin area.  Founded by three physicians in 1980, it now provides health care to over 530,000 area residents in 28 locations in 12 Central Texas cities, with 19 specialties in primary and specialty care. ARC is unique to the Austin area because of its widespread locations, convenient services and quality assurance programs.

ARC patients enjoy access to such conveniences as:

  • Same-Day and After Hours Appointments
  • 24/7 Phone Nurse and Phone & Online Scheduling
  • ARC MyChart: Online Access to Test Results and Care Team
  • On-site Lab Services
  • On-site or Nearby Radiology Services
  • Clinical Research Trials

For more information, visit AustinRegionalClinic.com.

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8 hours ago, kevwun said:

A friend who teaches middle school said they are going to shutdown all of their campuses after their first positive case and then go in to remote school for a quarantine period and then try to reopen again.  They are going to be open for a couple of days before the open and closing cycle begins.  It seems incredibly silly to go through the motions like that.  It's better than a damn the torpedoes approach though.

Yeah. I’ve always assumed this will be what happens which is why we are home schooling.  Don’t want to jerk the kids around like a yo yo. 

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3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Let's see a drop in 7 day average before we get too excited. Nevermind that historically we see a small drop on Monday followed by a jump on Tuesday due to how data is processed and aggregated for those stats

Just wait until a few weeks after Labor Day. 

Shit will ramp right back up. 

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Just finished my kids fall schedule - all online - mostly out school and we are pretty damn excited. The range of options was great, all live instruction. We have 5th grade, 7th and 10th and the elective options were superb, and I was able to add extra classes in history and including civil rights/African American history as well as cool classes on WWII for even my 5th grader, an amazing 7th grade literature class, sociology for my 10th grader, psychology for my 7th grader, lego challenge class for 5th, coding and hacking for 10th and some photography classes and ukulele course too. Core classes as well but those aren’t a cool - algebra I, II, chemistry, biology, world history, etc. but fun science electives for my 5th grader including the central nervous system and dinosaurs of the sea and air. A lot of the cool courses are short modules like 8 classes over 2 months. I need to fill in some spanish for two of them and I think we are good. For PE we have sailing lessons possibly as well as tennis and fall baseball. We will pick up golf too next spring. We have a bunch of saved courses for next semester too and a lot of the ones we have signed up roll right into the 2nd and 3rd part of the same course. This could be really good.

 

We’ve got a civil rights road trip planned and we may do some Texas history via audible and a road trip as well this fall.

 

The amount of time wasted in traditional school is apparent. We won’t be jerked around, we bounced out and are going our own way.

 

We are seeing the Democratization of education and private control in a way that’s pretty amazing. I think we may be nearing a private school quality education for a fraction of the cost for three kids. We did invest in well equipped dedicated work stations too but I think it’s going to be worth it. Time will tell but I’ve never been this excited about my children’s school.

 

If you have thought about pressing the eject button on public school it’s not too late. There are tons of ridiculously good options out there, even the major universities have self paced high school programs. UT costs a fraction of what traditional private school costs and if you want live instruction Outschool is rapidly expanding. Just do it.

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4 hours ago, Captainant said:

Let's see a drop in 7 day average before we get too excited. Nevermind that historically we see a small drop on Monday followed by a jump on Tuesday due to how data is processed and aggregated for those stats

What are you looking at exactly? It’s been dropping for weeks now and the linked graphs in the tweet show that.

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12 hours ago, MillerEP said:

Austin ARC is looking for volunteers for covid-19 vaccine trial:

https://www.austinregionalclinic.com/news-and-events/article/news/arc-clinical-research-contributes-to-covid-19-vaccine-trial-news

ARC News & Events Archive

ARC Clinical Research contributes to COVID-19 Vaccine Trial

 
August 07, 2020

 

 

 

ARC will recruit 250 ARC patients from across Central Texas to enroll in this late phase clinical trial, intended to prove the safety and efficacy of the sponsor’s vaccine compound and potentially enable this sponsor to be the first to bring a vaccine to market. 

Dr. Gretchen Crook, Principal Investigator for ARC Clinical Research, noted “It is the top priority of the United States and the world to find a successful vaccine to prevent the infection and spread of COVID-19.  This vaccine candidate has the potential to save lives and allow us to return to a way of life that will restore our economy, re-connect our friendships, and continue activities we all enjoy.  ARC Clinical Research was selected as a partner in this study based on our long track record of conducting high quality trials and our speed in enrolling study participants.”

Be a part of history

“This study offers an opportunity to be a part of history and benefit humankind.  There are 7 billion people in our world who will need access to a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 infection, and ARC Clinical Research is thrilled to have a role in bringing a vaccine to Americans”, says Jeff Repper, Director of ARC Clinical Research.

Participants will be compensated for their time and contributions to the clinical study. All COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial services will be delivered at ARC Clinical Research Wilson Parke, located at 11714 Wilson Parke Ave., Suite 150 in Austin’s Four Points neighborhood. 

ARC Clinical Research is a division of Austin Regional Clinic, a physician-owned multispecialty medical group with 350 physicians and clinicians committed to providing comprehensive healthcare services throughout the greater Austin area. 

To start the enrollment process for the COVID-19 vaccine study, please go to ARCclinicalresearch.com and click the orange [Request to Participate] button or call 512-225-5931.

Strict Coronavirus safety measures for care and research trials

In response to COVID-19, ARC has implemented strict safety measures at all clinics and research facilities to ensure that our patients, staff, and physicians remain safe. 

Everyone is screened before entering our clinics, sick and well patients wait in separate spaces with symptomatic patients most often waiting in cars, exam rooms are cleaned and disinfected after each visit, and ARC remains fully stocked with personal protective equipment (PPE). ARC ensures a safe environment to care for all patients and conduct clinical trials. ARC currently participates in seven other research studies at four ARC Clinical Research facilities.

To date, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported almost 5 million COVID-19 cases and over 157,000 deaths in the US while the World Health Organization (WHO) reports more than 700,000 deaths worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dr. Gretchen L. Crook, Principal Investigator - Background

Gretchen L. Crook, MD, joined Austin Regional Clinic in 2002. She joined ARC Clinical Research at the inception in 2017 and stepped into the Lead Physician role in 2019. Under Dr. Crook’s leadership, ARC has participated in over 35 clinical trials and is currently working on 23 studies for such health conditions as lipid management, inflammatory diseases, infectious disease prevention, uterine fibroids, and others. ARC also participates in pediatric studies, including studies in migraines, infant formula, and two meningococcal vaccine studies.

“This is one of many clinical trials currently being conducted by ARC to look at new ways to prevent, detect, or treat diseases that may benefit patients in Central Texas. We are particularly excited to be part of a vaccine trial can literally change the world.”

Dr. Crook, a Family Doctor for almost 20 years, earned her medical degree at the University of Florida College of Medicine before her residency at University of Florida Family Practice Residency Program.  In addition to Principal Investigator, Dr. Crook serves as a Same-Day Care doctor for ARC.  Dr. Crook is a member of the American Academy of Family Physicians and the Travis County Medical Society. She lives in Austin, TX with her family.

ARC Clinical Research Overview

ARC Clinical Research is a network of research clinics that works in partnership with sponsors, typically pharmaceutical, immunotherapy, or medical device companies, to execute clinical studies. In determining which studies to participate in, ARC focuses on those that will most benefit the Central Texas community and looks to participate in clinical research programs that look at new ways to prevent, detect, and treat diseases. The focus is on adult and pediatric clinical studies for preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic purposes.  With four research offices in and around Austin, ARC Clinical Research offers clinical research opportunities to the Central Texas area.

For more information, visit ARCclinicalresearch.com.

Austin Regional Clinic Overview

Austin Regional Clinic is a multispecialty medical group committed to providing comprehensive healthcare services throughout the greater Austin area.  Founded by three physicians in 1980, it now provides health care to over 530,000 area residents in 28 locations in 12 Central Texas cities, with 19 specialties in primary and specialty care. ARC is unique to the Austin area because of its widespread locations, convenient services and quality assurance programs.

ARC patients enjoy access to such conveniences as:

  • Same-Day and After Hours Appointments
  • 24/7 Phone Nurse and Phone & Online Scheduling
  • ARC MyChart: Online Access to Test Results and Care Team
  • On-site Lab Services
  • On-site or Nearby Radiology Services
  • Clinical Research Trials

For more information, visit AustinRegionalClinic.com.

If they said which vaccine it was, I'd consider it more seriously. 

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Jump back up to above 200 again (has been Travis county range last couple of weeks (200-300)). Of concern is the higher daily total of 60 yo+ in yesterday's grouping.

Using average mortality for the three age cohorts in the 60+ grouping I expect to see ~4 deaths from the 52 people 60+ that tested positive yesterday.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/10 vs 8/9 1 7 23 36 42 39 29 29 16 7 229
% of Daily Change 0.44% 3.06% 10.04% 15.72% 18.34% 17.03% 12.66% 12.66% 6.99% 3.06%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.80% 8.03% 26.68% 21.50% 16.36% 11.70% 6.59% 3.32% 2.50%   22,953
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  • immamac changed the title to COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

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