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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


justhookit

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23 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Could be, that'll be interesting to see if it runs into weekend. I am not going to get too hung up on the slight bump as admits are still trending well as are hospitalizations.

If APH can ever get their shit together and get vaccines out things might be ok. I hope the majore pharmacies (HEB, CVS, Randalls) can just bypass our dipshit COA folks and get needles in arms quickly.

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Now we may see a huge spike in cases as weather warms but for the time frame of 2/12 to 2/21 Travis County only saw 271 cases. Let's see what being stuck indoors for a week does but I am hopeful it continues to level out.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/12 vs 2/11 0 24 35 55 45 46 28 20 11 7 271
% of Daily Change 0.00% 8.86% 12.92% 20.30% 16.61% 16.97% 10.33% 7.38% 4.06% 2.58%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.04% 10.21% 25.76% 20.72% 15.06% 11.39% 6.71% 3.31% 2.19%  
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397 cases today in Travis County with 34 admits. Only 338 people in the hospital. Current course/speed we should drop <300 by Friday.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/22 vs 2/21 3 17 59 85 76 58 53 28 13 5 397
% of Daily Change 0.76% 4.28% 14.86% 21.41% 19.14% 14.61% 13.35% 7.05% 3.27% 1.26%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.04% 10.23% 25.74% 20.71% 15.06% 11.40% 6.71% 3.31% 2.18%  
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On 2/20/2021 at 7:11 PM, CleverNickname said:

I know several families who have isolated hard-core for 11 month who shacked up with family or friends for heat during the winter snap. Could lead to transmission. 

I doubt this is going to lead to much spreading. I think the storm will keep people from going out and going to work and school, which have been the major drivers of transmission. As such, I think we will see a pretty decent drop. Of course the drop will be reversed somewhat as soon as people start going out again. But due to the vaccine, we will continue to see an overall decline in the number of cases.

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392 cases in Travis County today which is not bad for a true up day. 36 admits which is good to see (compared to where we were blasting through). 319 people hospitalized. I wouldn't be shocked to see us drop <300 tomorrow (I had said by EOW).

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/23 vs 2/22 1 34 62 89 58 58 42 24 10 14 392
% of Daily Change 0.26% 8.67% 15.82% 22.70% 14.80% 14.80% 10.71% 6.12% 2.55% 3.57%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.07% 10.26% 25.72% 20.68% 15.06% 11.40% 6.71% 3.30% 2.19%  
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Good day for Travis County with only 237 cases today. Very low in the 60+ groups which is also encouraging.

304 people in the hospital and 35 admits.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/24 vs 2/23 2 11 18 56 63 36 31 5 11 4 237
% of Daily Change 0.84% 4.64% 7.59% 23.63% 26.58% 15.19% 13.08% 2.11% 4.64% 1.69%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.07% 10.25% 25.72% 20.70% 15.06% 11.40% 6.70% 3.31% 2.19%  
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Another good day for Travis County. 212 cases today, 35 admits and we finally broke below 300 hospitalized with 285 folks in the hospital. Hospitalizations lowest since 12/12.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/25 vs 2/24 1 11 21 60 42 28 33 10 6 0 212
% of Daily Change 0.47% 5.19% 9.91% 28.30% 19.81% 13.21% 15.57% 4.72% 2.83% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.07% 10.25% 25.72% 20.70% 15.05% 11.41% 6.69% 3.31% 2.18%  
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315 cases in Travis County today. 41 new admits, which I am not thrilled about as we had been below 40 each day this week. Cases skewing in the younger, non lethal age ranges so that is good for deaths forward looking.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/26 vs 2/25 2 11 36 91 76 48 25 14 9 3 315
% of Daily Change 0.63% 3.49% 11.43% 28.89% 24.13% 15.24% 7.94% 4.44% 2.86% 0.95%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.07% 10.26% 25.74% 20.71% 15.06% 11.40% 6.68% 3.31% 2.17%  
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45 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

315 cases in Travis County today. 41 new admits, which I am not thrilled about as we had been below 40 each day this week. Cases skewing in the younger, non lethal age ranges so that is good for deaths forward looking.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/26 vs 2/25 2 11 36 91 76 48 25 14 9 3 315
% of Daily Change 0.63% 3.49% 11.43% 28.89% 24.13% 15.24% 7.94% 4.44% 2.86% 0.95%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.07% 10.26% 25.74% 20.71% 15.06% 11.40% 6.68% 3.31% 2.17%  

Just a random blip - not going to be a trend. I bet numbers improve again tomorrow.

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Yesterday's numbers for Travis County are still moving in positive direction. 25 admits, 276 hospitalized and 255 new cases. Higher share than typical in the 60-69 bracket but it is off a low base so I am not overly concerned.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 2/27 vs 2/26 2 27 40 53 33 45 26 22 4 3 255
% of Daily Change 0.78% 10.59% 15.69% 20.78% 12.94% 17.65% 10.20% 8.63% 1.57% 1.18%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.09% 10.28% 25.72% 20.68% 15.06% 11.40% 6.69% 3.30% 2.17%  
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33 deaths for w/e 2/27 in Travis County reversing a two week run of <30 deaths.

They break out along following age groups:

30 to 39: 2

40 to 49: 1

50 to 59: 5

60 to 69: 7

70 to 79: 10

80 to 80: 8

75% of deaths 60+. This is below the normal share of 80-82%. One week doesn't make a trend but this is something i will keep an eye on moving forward.

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Cases still not fully updated for Travis County. All of the age demo unchanged since 2/27. I am showing 19 new cases for 2/28 (which are under reported) and 265 cases for 3/1. Hospital admits today only show as 15 which is crazy low which makes me think there are admit data issues as well.

 

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Cases still not fully updated for Travis County. All of the age demo unchanged since 2/27. I am showing 19 new cases for 2/28 (which are under reported) and 265 cases for 3/1. Hospital admits today only show as 15 which is crazy low which makes me think there are admit data issues as well.
 

Well, around now-ish is where I'd expect to see hospitalizations and death decrease due to the most vulnerable hitting decent vax numbers. We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread, and will have to start looking at cases and positivity rates, which we all know are flawed. Statistically that sucks, but it's great that it's happening.
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57 minutes ago, BradInATX said:


Well, around now-ish is where I'd expect to see hospitalizations and death decrease due to the most vulnerable hitting decent vax numbers. We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread, and will have to start looking at cases and positivity rates, which we all know are flawed. Statistically that sucks, but it's great that it's happening.

Yeah, back in one of these threads 6 weeks or so ago I had pegged 3/1 as the date we would start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel which feels pretty accurate.   Now by 4/1 I'm hoping numbers still low and vax supply increased to a point that we've identified (if not already started) vaccinating "1C" or whatever the next category will be.

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24 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yeah, back in one of these threads 6 weeks or so ago I had pegged 3/1 as the date we would start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel which feels pretty accurate.   Now by 4/1 I'm hoping numbers still low and vax supply increased to a point that we've identified (if not already started) vaccinating "1C" or whatever the next category will be.

I think we'll be well beyond 1C by the end of March. The three pharmas will be shipping shots to fully vaccinate 70 million people in March. Even if we only get 80% of those into arms that puts us at 80 million or so fully vaccinated (cumulative) by end of month. That's over a third of the US population done with by EOM, and more than a third of those who will actually get the shot.

I think we'll see general public availability in most states before end of month. I think the states are sandbagging it and we're going to see 1C in a couple of weeks.

Edited by BradInATX
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Well, around now-ish is where I'd expect to see hospitalizations and death decrease due to the most vulnerable hitting decent vax numbers. We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread, and will have to start looking at cases and positivity rates, which we all know are flawed. Statistically that sucks, but it's great that it's happening.


Is it really that bad of an illness if we get to the point where no one locally is going to a hospital or dying?
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1 minute ago, smoky said:


 

 


Is it really that bad of an illness if we get to the point where no one locally is going to a hospital or dying?

 

 

Nope. It's a "who cares". Maybe we have to get boosters every year or whatever, but if/when we get to that point, Covid isn't a thing anymore.

Edited by BradInATX
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18 hours ago, BradInATX said:

We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread

This will be a very good thing. And at that point I hope we are only tracking to make sure a variant doesn’t rare its ugly head. There will still be one offs where the non immunized 40 yo without a comorbidity gets hospitalized. But this happens with other viral illnesses. It just doesn’t make the news like it will with COVID.  Hoping people keep or develop the will to stay immunized. There will be complacency. Like we do with lots of things.

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i can't find a Dallas county dash board for hospitalizations, but just from reading Jenkins' tweets every day the deaths have seemed high lately ~45 per day-ish.  Are hospitalizations going down due to deaths?  I am guessing that most Covid deaths occur in a hospital, right?

- I would think at some point the deaths would come down as the population that is most likely to die is also getting the vax at the highest rate.   Are there a ton of olds out there with other health issues that prohibit them from getting the vax? 

googled and this article (from Jan 19th) came up that claims most of the shots are not going to the olds 

image.png.366a8d1f72824774c6daa6f466b1b9ed.png

so i hope we have been making strides and maybe there are a lot of first responders or something that have skewed the initial response, but for only 25% of the first ~850K to go to seniors seems off.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

i can't find a Dallas county dash board for hospitalizations, but just from reading Jenkins' tweets every day the deaths have seemed high lately ~45 per day-ish.  Are hospitalizations going down due to deaths?  I am guessing that most Covid deaths occur in a hospital, right?

- I would think at some point the deaths would come down as the population that is most likely to die is also getting the vax at the highest rate.   Are there a ton of olds out there with other health issues that prohibit them from getting the vax? 

googled and this article (from Jan 19th) came up that claims most of the shots are not going to the olds 

image.png.366a8d1f72824774c6daa6f466b1b9ed.png

so i hope we have been making strides and maybe there are a lot of first responders or something that have skewed the initial response, but for only 25% of the first ~850K to go to seniors seems off.

 

 

 

If 25% of shots are going to seniors who only make up 10% of the population of the state then seniors are getting shots at 2.5x the rate that anyone else is. I think it's going fine.

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Welp good news is there is no more Covid in Texas any more according to the Gov! Some definite database weirdness transpired with Travis County so I expect these numbers to bounce up in coming days. Two different groups over last three days dropped from what their overall case numbers were before. 30 new admits today, down to 241 people hospitalized. Good trend on that front.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/2 vs 2/27 -25 40 -75 -8 224 84 96 78 27 30 471
% of Daily Change -5.31% 8.49% -15.92% -1.70% 47.56% 17.83% 20.38% 16.56% 5.73% 6.37%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.12% 10.11% 25.55% 20.85% 15.08% 11.45% 6.75% 3.31% 2.20%  
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39 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Welp good news is there is no more Covid in Texas any more according to the Gov! Some definite database weirdness transpired with Travis County so I expect these numbers to bounce up in coming days. Two different groups over last three days dropped from what their overall case numbers were before. 30 new admits today, down to 241 people hospitalized. Good trend on that front.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 3/2 vs 2/27 -25 40 -75 -8 224 84 96 78 27 30 471
% of Daily Change -5.31% 8.49% -15.92% -1.70% 47.56% 17.83% 20.38% 16.56% 5.73% 6.37%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 4.12% 10.11% 25.55% 20.85% 15.08% 11.45% 6.75% 3.31% 2.20%  

WE WON!!!!!

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2 minutes ago, ABSR said:

WE WON!!!!!

Good thing we don't have something like Spring Break next week.  Hopefully it's not the following week either, and was just canceled everywhere!

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It's an amazingly fucking stupid move to rescind the mask mandate, and to only allow cities/counties to put covid measures in place "If COVID-19 hospitalizations in any of Texas' 22 hospital regions rise above 15% of the capacity in that region for seven straight days"

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Also, TEA is going to decide this week if it's going to force school districts to drop their mask/covid mandates.

AISD and many of the other big ones are going to try and keep their masks, but TEA can force them to drop it.

And then a shit-ton of teachers and staff who still aren't vaccinated are going to tell them to fuck off, and a shitload of parents will bring their kids back home.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Also, TEA is going to decide this week if it's going to force school districts to drop their mask/covid mandates.

AISD and many of the other big ones are going to try and keep their masks, but TEA can force them to drop it.

And then a shit-ton of teachers and staff who still aren't vaccinated are going to tell them to fuck off, and a shitload of parents will bring their kids back home.

And this is all the logical and completely foreseeable consequence, because of course shaking up the safety protocols in the last couple months of in person schooling is exactly what we should be doing.   

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