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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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111 cases for Travis County today with 16 admits and 129 hospitalized.

Younger groups outperforming the olds which is what you want to see (unless your South Austin's ex who chooses to defy science/data and forge her own path)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/15 vs 4/14 1 9 15 28 18 16 14 5 3 2 111
% of Daily Change 0.90% 8.11% 13.51% 25.23% 16.22% 14.41% 12.61% 4.50% 2.70% 1.80%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.93% 20.64% 14.92% 11.30% 6.59% 3.24% 2.11%  
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1 minute ago, Johnny Sack said:

Does he have some sort of condition that makes him at risk?  Because otherwise risk of death to a 10 year old from Covid is equivalent to getting eaten by a shark.

No risk conditions and he's perfectly healthy.  And I'm not going to mention to her the risk of getting eaten by a shark before our Rosemary Beach trip.

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17 hours ago, South Austin said:

I'm pushing sending my fourth grader back to school.  He's now one of 5 kids in his class still remote while the other 13 are in person.  I'd say easily 60-70% of the school has gone back in person.  My ex still claims she's nervous about it, even though she and I are both fully vaccinated.

I'm okay with my daughter finishing out the year remotely.  It's the opposite at her school -- relatively few kids are going back in person.  Her grades are good and she's had social interaction with a small group of girls as her pod and while paying on the varsity basketball team.

 

My youngest grandson just went back to his 5th grade Zilker classroom for the first time today to join his friends. He has been ready for quite some time.

Parents are not allowed in the building and a teacher takes temperatures before the kids go in.

 

6367E6FA-583A-4096-9682-05381905DE54.jpeg

Edited by Armybrat
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There seem to be a lot more positive cases in high school and middle schools in Austin than I ever recall seeing before. Some in the elementary schools too.

Not cool, at a time when the district is urging everyone to send their kids back but not telling them the reason is because the TEA will yank millions of our funds if we don't hit a certain percentage of in-person students. 

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3 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

There seem to be a lot more positive cases in high school and middle schools in Austin than I ever recall seeing before. Some in the elementary schools too.

Not cool, at a time when the district is urging everyone to send their kids back but not telling them the reason is because the TEA will yank millions of our funds if we don't hit a certain percentage of in-person students. 

This is 100% the reason. AISD fucked up by going it alone in Central Texas and among the major metros with really discouraging people coming to class even after data suggested no spread in classroom & CDC urged them back. 
AISD and many teachers kept urging people to stay home. Now droves are bailing for private school/transferring out of AISD and they are begging kids to come back to secure funding and so kids can take STARR test. Just a mess. 

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5 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

They're begging remote learners to come in person to meet the whatever % metric of in-person learners TEA wants so the agency will allow us to have our captured money, it's not to do with people who have unenrolled. 

I know that is just an added by product that creates issues for next year.Fewer kids = fewer teachers needed.

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Nice low case day for Travis County with 93 today but holy shit a lot of admits (37 - the most since 2/26) & 138 people hospitalized.

First day of the week that the <20 school age groups haven't out performed their overall pandemic to date share.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/16 vs 4/15 0 3 9 30 22 16 4 6 3 0 93
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.23% 9.68% 32.26% 23.66% 17.20% 4.30% 6.45% 3.23% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.93% 20.64% 14.92% 11.29% 6.59% 3.24% 2.11%  
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5 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

There seem to be a lot more positive cases in high school and middle schools in Austin than I ever recall seeing before. Some in the elementary schools too.

Not cool, at a time when the district is urging everyone to send their kids back but not telling them the reason is because the TEA will yank millions of our funds if we don't hit a certain percentage of in-person students. 

My kids have been back the full time they were allowed, as have many of their peers, but we have seen the mass emails from the principal, and the TEA stuff has been mentioned.  Plus it's been all over the news, PTA has been sending out emails mentioning it, etc.

There are a lot more kids showing up the past few weeks at my kids' schools.

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2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Nice low case day for Travis County with 93 today but holy shit a lot of admits (37 - the most since 2/26) & 138 people hospitalized.

First day of the week that the <20 school age groups haven't out performed their overall pandemic to date share.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/16 vs 4/15 0 3 9 30 22 16 4 6 3 0 93
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.23% 9.68% 32.26% 23.66% 17.20% 4.30% 6.45% 3.23% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.93% 20.64% 14.92% 11.29% 6.59% 3.24% 2.11%  

Is that admit number some kind of correction?  Holy shit.

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4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Is that admit number some kind of correction?  Holy shit.

Don't know. I have seen that Tuesdays are true up days for cases, I haven't seen such for admits. I hope this is a one off as it is a big jump from what we have seen the past couple of months.

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Not a great day for admits (30) or hospitalizations (145). This time a week ago we were at 127 in Travis County.

136 cases today, big jump in the 20 to 29 group vs normal compare.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/17 vs 4/16 0 3 13 53 26 16 15 7 2 1 136
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.21% 9.56% 38.97% 19.12% 11.76% 11.03% 5.15% 1.47% 0.74%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.96% 20.64% 14.92% 11.29% 6.59% 3.24% 2.11%  
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14 deaths last week in Travis County. Highest since W/E 3/20. We had been on a nice steady 3 week decline until this week. Here is breakdown by age group

40 to 49 (4)

50 to 59 (2)

60 to 69 (1)

70 to 79 (5) Had gone 4 straight weeks with zero deaths in this age group

80+ (2)

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Not a great day for admits (30) or hospitalizations (145). This time a week ago we were at 127 in Travis County.

136 cases today, big jump in the 20 to 29 group vs normal compare.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/17 vs 4/16 0 3 13 53 26 16 15 7 2 1 136
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.21% 9.56% 38.97% 19.12% 11.76% 11.03% 5.15% 1.47% 0.74%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.96% 20.64% 14.92% 11.29% 6.59% 3.24% 2.11%  

Admits becoming worrisome.  I did not expect to see any more 25+ days.  The % of admits against the 2 week lag of daily cases is exorbitant.  And odd considering the positivity rate hasn’t skyrocketed.  Hate that we don’t get direct insight into the admit ages.  If most of these admits are people <50 then that spells trouble. 

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5 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

One thing that's interesting is that the recent uptick in the overall hospital census has not been mirrored in the ICU census - it continues to go down (at least for now).  Thus, these new admits appear less serious, which is a good sign.

Which I think is to be expected. The virus tends to mutate into more contagious and less deadly varieties.

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20 admits, 61 cases and 146 hospitalized today.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/18 vs 4/17 2 2 7 15 13 15 5 2 0 0 61
% of Daily Change 3.28% 3.28% 11.48% 24.59% 21.31% 24.59% 8.20% 3.28% 0.00% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.95% 20.64% 14.93% 11.29% 6.59% 3.24% 2.10%  
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I went to a friend's surprise birthday party this weekend in Austin.   There were no masks to be found anywhere and there were probably about 50 people there.  It was awesome to feel normal again.  They had "casino night" so we were playing craps and I never even thought about Covid (vaccinated).  Things are beginning to return to normal again and I like it...a lot.

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31 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

I went to Walmart yesterday, showed up as the doors were opening. Still felt like I was playing craps. 

We (both vaccinated by early March) have made 3 trips to Costco in the past six months. The first two were early in the morning, so very few customers were there. Last week we made the mistake of going Thursday afternoon, as there were a lot of them in the store. But we still managed to avoid any close contact. 

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19 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Spouse got the shot at the super Walmart in Round Rock, and said everyone in the store shopping was either limping or hunchbacked.

Is it the gateway to gimpsville or something?

The lesson is, as always, avoid Walmart like the plague.  

Especially in the afternoons and weekends.

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153 cases today in Travis County with 12 admits and 144 hospitalized. Higher share in younger ages as we have seen. Latest age breakout on hospitalizations still skews in the 50+ groups so while cases are running high in younger it's still the olds going to the hospital.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/19 vs 4/18 1 10 23 47 25 16 18 8 4 1 153
% of Daily Change 0.65% 6.54% 15.03% 30.72% 16.34% 10.46% 11.76% 5.23% 2.61% 0.65%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.45% 25.96% 20.63% 14.92% 11.29% 6.59% 3.23% 2.10%  
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15 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you have all this info saved anywhere that you could quickly produce a graph of age group % over time in the past 3 months to see any shift youthward after vaccines started?

Not sure if this gets to what you are looking for but here is compare in % increase in case counts from Oct 1st, 2020 to Dec 31st, 2020 vs Jan 2nd, 2021 to April 19th, 2021. Cases have always skewed younger in terms of total count.

As of 4/19 76% of all cases to date are <50 years old. It was the same share on Jan 2nd.

  <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 80+
% Increase from Jan 2 to Apr 19 79% 94% 69% 50% 55% 55% 56% 58% 62% 52%
% Increase from Oct 1st to Dec 31st 75% 105% 78% 73% 70% 62% 71% 73% 69% 58%
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I go to Wal-Mart for two reasons nowadays---------their mulch is the cheapest anywhere.  Beats Home Depot by a $1/bag and when you're buying 50+ bags and they're next door to one another, fuck it---I'm a WalMart guy. I love my local nursery for plants and flowers and soil but I'm not paying $5 bag versus $2 bag for 50 bags of mulch.  And the second reason is for political news.  I watch the cars and shirts and hats of the people at WalMart to see which way the political tides are shifting in a particular community. 

Speaking of Covid stats though, drove by the Burger Center after my mulch pickup.  It was completely staffed, dozens of workers at the ready and cops to guide traffic flow.  And I saw one car in that whole parking lot for vaccines.  thought that was weird.  The place has been jam packed for months.  

Edited by Lobo
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18 admits, 137 hospitalized and 118 cases today (not bad for a Tuesday case true-up day)

Cases higher than normal amongst younger folks

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/20 vs 4/19 0 7 22 27 26 19 9 7 0 1 118
% of Daily Change 0.00% 5.93% 18.64% 22.88% 22.03% 16.10% 7.63% 5.93% 0.00% 0.85%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.47% 25.96% 20.63% 14.92% 11.28% 6.59% 3.23% 2.10%  
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7 hours ago, Lobo said:

I go to Wal-Mart for two reasons nowadays---------their mulch is the cheapest anywhere.  Beats Home Depot by a $1/bag and when you're buying 50+ bags and they're next door to one another, fuck it---I'm a WalMart guy. I love my local nursery for plants and flowers and soil but I'm not paying $5 bag versus $2 bag for 50 bags of mulch.  And the second reason is for political news.  I watch the cars and shirts and hats of the people at WalMart to see which way the political tides are shifting in a particular community. 

 

we all have our price...

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19 hours ago, Lobo said:

I go to Wal-Mart for two reasons nowadays---------their mulch is the cheapest anywhere.  Beats Home Depot by a $1/bag and when you're buying 50+ bags and they're next door to one another, fuck it---I'm a WalMart guy. I love my local nursery for plants and flowers and soil but I'm not paying $5 bag versus $2 bag for 50 bags of mulch.  And the second reason is for political news.  I watch the cars and shirts and hats of the people at WalMart to see which way the political tides are shifting in a particular community. 

Speaking of Covid stats though, drove by the Burger Center after my mulch pickup.  It was completely staffed, dozens of workers at the ready and cops to guide traffic flow.  And I saw one car in that whole parking lot for vaccines.  thought that was weird.  The place has been jam packed for months.  

Dude, buy mulch in bulk.

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i priced it but the delivery fee outweighed the savings on the mulch itself.  Unless you're going really crazy, but I only need 100-150 cubic feet each year.  It's fine to break up into a couple trips with at truck.  2021 mulch talk not going away.  

UT expanding their vaccination program today.  Anybody over 16, no appointment necessary.  Come one, come all.  Not sure which shot they're using though.  

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25 minutes ago, 4th_and_18 said:

Buy mulch? I already pay for that in taxes. I just pick it up at Austin recycling. Takes a bit of work to load and unload but I get a truck bed full of mulch.

I used that stuff for a few years but I don't like the consistency of it.  We have a dramatic North to South slope to our lot of almost 15 degrees (thankfully it's very gradual over the course of 60 yards), and the free mulch just runs off like a mo-fo after heavy rains down to the creekbed.  I found two brands I like that are more coarse (I guess, is that a word for mulch?).  Plus I had to get rid of my wheelbarrow to make room in the garage for multiple kiddie vehicles and bikes.  I think my smoker box is up next.  

Back to Covid in Texas.  Only 4 Covid-19 deaths in Austin since Monday morning.  250 new cases since then as well.  60 more days and I think we can take a breath.  A mother of a girl in our kinder class invited herself, her other child, and her father over to the girls' playdate in our backyard this weekend.  Which I thought was very presumptive of her, especially since she added that neither her nor her father have had the vaccine but did test positive awhile back for anitbodies.  Dah Fuh?  Who brings 3 extra people to a playdate during a pandemic?  Especially if you don't know how long ago the antibodies formed, could be well over a year.  How is this a thing? 

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I went to my first "party" in over a year last weekend.  Until I got there I thought it was going to be <15 people from 3 households with all adults vaxxed and everyone staying outside.  It turned out it was ~25 people from 5 different households mingling indoors.  Of the 10 adults, 6 were fully vaxxed.  I was introduced to one of the unvaxxed guys and he brings it up, saying "I'm just too stubborn and just don't want to be told what to do.  Besides, I am pretty sure I had it in FEBRUARY 2020, so what could be better than the immunity I got from that?"  This is a college educated professional.  Fuck me.

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^

This shit is happening everywhere, every single day.  Makes you miss the guy who opened up the party conversation with, "As a vegan...I just want to say..." or "So this woman from my cross-fit class.  Well I can't remember if she's from my MWF class or my weekend advanced class" or "Let me just add, as someone who has lived in New York..."

The "reason why I haven't gotten the vaccine yet is because..." stories are somehow considered interesting by the speaker.  Da fuh? 

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