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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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1 hour ago, wild_turkey said:

Someone remind me why vaccinated people should be concerned about Delta? Even with breakthrough cases, it's very rare for an otherwise healthy vaccinated person to become seriously ill from Delta. 

Is the whole point that we should start masking up and distancing again out of concern for the unvaccinated people? The expectation is that those of us who have done the right thing should now take extra precautions to help people who are too selfish or lazy to help themselves?

This pandemic should be effectively over in the U.S. but we all still endure it because 40% of American adults won't get their vaccines. Meanwhile there are poor countries around the world where people desperately need vaccines but can't get them because they are sitting unused on a shelf in our country. There should be a cutoff date of September 15 where any vaccines that haven't been administered will be shipped to 3rd world countries and Americans just have to live with their decisions beyond that.

You should be concerned as due to all of the "Muh rights" crowd not getting vaccinated we are collectively poised to have back to school fucked up, large outdoor events fucked up and just life in general. This thing was pretty much whipped a couple of months ago and now we are trending back to the peaks of Covid-time due to a bunch of selfish motherfuckers.

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In my opinion, the latest CDC course change Re: masks in vaccinated folks is more about saying they are “doing something” about the current wave and not based in available data.  I find it highly unlikely that a large number of current COVID infections are coming from vaccinated people passing it to unvaccinated people.  If the CDC has that data, then let’s see it!  But I doubt they do.  

Can vaccinated people still get COVID?  Sure.  But it’s pretty rare despite hearing all the panic about the breakthroughs.  Can those people generate enough virus particles to transmit it to someone else?  Sure, but I’m sure that’s quite rare.  Will mandating masks for even vaccinated individuals have a significant positive impact on our current wave?  I’m highly dubious.  Plus it may have negative impacts by causing people on the fence about getting vaccinated choose not to because they’d still have to wear a mask.  

Prediction:  Delta wave will start declining rapidly in next 1-2 weeks and everyone will tout this change in mask guidance as the reason, but it had nothing to do with it.  It’s just the nature of waves caused by the Delta variant all around the world.

Also, over 60 COVID patients currently in my hospital.  We had about ten 1 month ago.  ZERO are vaccinated.  

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2 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

In my opinion, the latest CDC course change Re: masks in vaccinated folks is more about saying they are “doing something” about the current wave and not based in available data.  I find it highly unlikely that a large number of current COVID infections are coming from vaccinated people passing it to unvaccinated people.  If the CDC has that data, then let’s see it!  But I doubt they do.  

Can vaccinated people still get COVID?  Sure.  But it’s pretty rare despite hearing all the panic about the breakthroughs.  Can those people generate enough virus particles to transmit it to someone else?  Sure, but I’m sure that’s quite rare.  Will mandating masks for even vaccinated individuals have a significant positive impact on our current wave?  I’m highly dubious.  Plus it may have negative impacts by causing people on the fence about getting vaccinated choose not to because they’d still have to wear a mask.  

Prediction:  Delta wave will start declining rapidly in next 1-2 weeks and everyone will tout this change in mask guidance as the reason, but it had nothing to do with it.  It’s just the nature of waves caused by the Delta variant all around the world.

Also, over 60 COVID patients currently in my hospital.  We had about ten 1 month ago.  ZERO are vaccinated.  

Agreed on data. Haven’t seen anything other than vague references like this. 

 

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1 minute ago, Muy Frio said:

Agreed on data. Haven’t seen anything other than vague references like this. 

 

Same.  I’ve not seen any data.  And I’m not saying it can’t or doesn’t happen (vaccinated people spreading COVID).  Im just saying that it happens at such a low rate that mandating masks for vaccinated people isn’t worth the trade off of potentially fewer people getting vaxxed.  

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3 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

Same.  I’ve not seen any data.  And I’m not saying it can’t or doesn’t happen (vaccinated people spreading COVID).  Im just saying that it happens at such a low rate that mandating masks for vaccinated people isn’t worth the trade off of potentially fewer people getting vaxxed.  

There’s two options really. There’s no real data and it’s just throwing something at the problem or the data is that bad that they would rather not release it. I agree it’s probably the former. 

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20 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

 

Here are the side effects of the most common prescribed drug in America....Atorvastatin, which we take in this country like fucking candy

 

Maybe YOU take it like candy. Some of us are not at death’s door. 
 

Eat a salet once in a while…sheesh!

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26 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

In my opinion, the latest CDC course change Re: masks in vaccinated folks is more about saying they are “doing something” about the current wave and not based in available data.  I find it highly unlikely that a large number of current COVID infections are coming from vaccinated people passing it to unvaccinated people.  If the CDC has that data, then let’s see it!  But I doubt they do.  

Can vaccinated people still get COVID?  Sure.  But it’s pretty rare despite hearing all the panic about the breakthroughs.  Can those people generate enough virus particles to transmit it to someone else?  Sure, but I’m sure that’s quite rare.  Will mandating masks for even vaccinated individuals have a significant positive impact on our current wave?  I’m highly dubious.  Plus it may have negative impacts by causing people on the fence about getting vaccinated choose not to because they’d still have to wear a mask.  

Prediction:  Delta wave will start declining rapidly in next 1-2 weeks and everyone will tout this change in mask guidance as the reason, but it had nothing to do with it.  It’s just the nature of waves caused by the Delta variant all around the world.

Also, over 60 COVID patients currently in my hospital.  We had about ten 1 month ago.  ZERO are vaccinated.  

TBH, I think a big aspect of it is that practically speaking - asshats who won't get vaccinated are also the same people looking for ANY reason to not wear a mask. If we require everyone to wear a mask, it will absolutely improve mask usage among the unvaxxed. 

I do think you're right in that the mask policy won't be THE SOLE reason for delta going down, but that's not really how pandemic response works. It's all a game of percentage points of odds and allocation of effort to efforts to improve those odds. In the grand scheme of things, mask usage costs NOTHING and applies considerable downward pressure against the spread of respiratory illness. Just wear a fucking mask. It's a pandemic.

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If any unvaccinated person references breakthrough cases, be sure to remind them that their selfish attitude is the reason that breakthrough cases exist. If we were at herd immunity #s, I'm sure cases would be >0 but we wouldn't be seeing anywhere near these numbers with vaccinated people.

 

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8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If any unvaccinated person references breakthrough cases, be sure to remind them that their selfish attitude is the reason that breakthrough cases exist. If we were at herd immunity #s, I'm sure cases would be >0 but we wouldn't be seeing anywhere near these numbers with vaccinated people.

 

there is no data saying breakthrough cases exist because of unvaccinated.

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2 hours ago, Heme Doc said:

Same.  I’ve not seen any data.  And I’m not saying it can’t or doesn’t happen (vaccinated people spreading COVID).  Im just saying that it happens at such a low rate that mandating masks for vaccinated people isn’t worth the trade off of potentially fewer people getting vaxxed.  

As far as cdc, who, or any other guidance goes- it feels to me that few people pay attention to that and have been using their own info, misinfo, and disinfo to inform their choices.  Some of us have been going back to masking indoors a week or more prior to cdc changes, some won’t go back to masking despite cdc changes. 
 

interestingly to me, our HEB still has a policy of vaccinated can be maskless posted. So that company still believes that vaccination is sufficient. 

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13 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 

interestingly to me, our HEB still has a policy of vaccinated can be maskless posted. So that company still believes that vaccination is sufficient. 

HEB has been correctly ahead of the curve on a LOT of things the past year lol

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9 minutes ago, mchookem said:

HEB has been correctly ahead of the curve on a LOT of things the past year lol

Oh yeah?  Well they sure as heck missed out on preparing the supply chain and stocking up for the toilet paper hoarding.  So maybe they're not quite as smart as you THINK they are...

 

 

:)

 

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22 hours ago, South Austin said:

One of my law partners, who is one of the more intelligent and rock solid people I know, gives this reason for not getting the vaccine.  She hasn't gotten the shot because she may have genetic predisposition to MS (her mother died of it a few years ago) and is worried about how a drug without full FDA approval might affect her.  And her daughter who's starting college this fall hasn't gotten the shots because she's worried about a potential link between the vaccines and infertility (which I believe has been debunked in scientific literature). I'm not sure I agree with her reasoning, but she's not a full anti-vaxxer, as her husband and son have gotten their shots.

I'm sure that I don't agree with her reasoning. 

She sounds like she's so smart that she's stupid. Which to be fair, describes about 80% of lawyers. Law school fucks up their thinking process.

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45 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

As far as cdc, who, or any other guidance goes- it feels to me that few people pay attention to that and have been using their own info, misinfo, and disinfo to inform their choices.  Some of us have been going back to masking indoors a week or more prior to cdc changes, some won’t go back to masking despite cdc changes. 
 

interestingly to me, our HEB still has a policy of vaccinated can be maskless posted. So that company still believes that vaccination is sufficient. 

when it's open.

 

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Seems like there are a few ways to more strongly encourage vaccination:

1. Restrict freedoms for unvaccinated people. No more flying on a plane without a vaccine. Travel is a privilege and air travel currently has a mask mandate from the federal government, so replace the mask requirement with a vaccine requirement.
Maybe restrict in person learning at public universities to vaccinated people only. I suppose that would be a state level decision which means a lot of states with low vaccination rates wouldn’t do it because politics.

2. Provide more freedoms to vaccinated people. If unvaccinated people can’t fly, then everyone in the airports should be vaccinated and should be allowed to fly without a mask because we believe the vaccines are working. Get rid of the COVID test requirement for vaccinated people entering the U.S. from foreign travel. On that note, almost every situation that currently calls for a COVID screening test should be supplanted by proof of vaccine.

3. Pay people. At a certain point, it’s simple economics. Estimate the healthcare cost of the projected Delta wave, take half that money, and divide it up as a tax incentive to everyone who was vaccinated this year. They probably should have made the last round of stimulus money contingent on having a vaccine. If people are really hurting financially and need money, then they need to at least do their part to help end the pandemic that triggered their hardship.

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On 7/27/2021 at 9:38 AM, Muy Frio said:

 

Well shit, after 15 months of wearing masks everywhere and avoiding crowds at indoor venues, we went maskless for the first time at a memorial service for one of the Mueller BBQ family in the Taylor SPJST Hall this past Sunday. LA BBQ catered. Only saw one server wearing a mask. Some aggy sitting at a table near us.

Are we ded yet?

 

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796318DA-9D70-4421-85A2-396A524F550D.jpeg

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14 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

 


Well sure, but even if the U.S. was 100% vaccinated with very low new transmission, variants can easily emerge in other parts of the world and make their way here.

 

So you are okay with unnecessarily adding to the mutation opportunities?  Yes, there will be ample chances for new mutations elsewhere in the world, but that doesn't mean we should add to those.  I get it, you've done everything you are supposed to do, and it is the anti-vaxxers screwing it up for everyone.  Why should you have to go back to wearing a mask when you did the right thing?  Because it is the right thing to do.  Justifying not wearing a mask in risky situations is no different than those who don't have good reasons for not getting jabbed.

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Lady who cuts my hair told me this morning how 2 of the 8 women who went to Mexico for a bachelorette came back positive…the two that weren’t vaccinated, naturally.  She went onto say that she was lucky they tested 72 hours (the limit) before leaving, as she started with symptoms 24 hours before leaving and was feeling so bad on the drive home from the airport that she went to the doc the very next morning.  
 

I sure do hope masks attenuate spread, and I’m glad they’re still required to fly…because those two ladies were in contact with dozens during their journey home as well as being in a tube of compressed air for 3 hours while starting to show symptoms at their most contagious.  

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11 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

So you are okay with unnecessarily adding to the mutation opportunities?  Yes, there will be ample chances for new mutations elsewhere in the world, but that doesn't mean we should add to those.  I get it, you've done everything you are supposed to do, and it is the anti-vaxxers screwing it up for everyone.  Why should you have to go back to wearing a mask when you did the right thing?  Because it is the right thing to do.  Justifying not wearing a mask in risky situations is no different than those who don't have good reasons for not getting jabbed.

First of all, I work in healthcare and wear a mask every day all day at work. So I'm not shedding the mask anytime soon as much as I would like to. I don't wear a mask to go into stores lately, but I also don't go into a lot of stores and I generally don't get too close to other people. I travel a decent amount and wear masks in airports and on planes. I'm not sure where else I should be wearing a mask that I'm not already.

Second of all, I'm highly skeptical of the idea that vaccinated people who don't wear masks will significantly increase the likelihood of a new deadlier variant emerging. I still feel like the rate of transmission from vaccinated people to each other or even to unvaccinated people is exceptionally low. Do I think it happens somewhere? Absolutely, but that's a tiny fraction of the total new cases of COVID in our country and worldwide, and therefore, a tiny possibility of a deadlier variant emerging.

If people are truly concerned about variants to that exceptionally small fraction of cases, then we should've never stopped masking to begin with, and we should continue all distancing precautions until the disease is completely eradicated from the earth. Close the bars, close the schools, stop allowing spectators at sports. Any new COVID case could be the deadly super variant that overpowers the vaccines and humanity will end.

But that would be ridiculous and we all know it, and anything to that effect, including asking vaccinated people to wear masks in public again, undermines the integrity of the vaccines and further supports unvaccinated people foolishly deciding not to ever get vaccinated.

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3 hours ago, Captainant said:

TBH, I think a big aspect of it is that practically speaking - asshats who won't get vaccinated are also the same people looking for ANY reason to not wear a mask. If we require everyone to wear a mask, it will absolutely improve mask usage among the unvaxxed. 

I do think you're right in that the mask policy won't be THE SOLE reason for delta going down, but that's not really how pandemic response works. It's all a game of percentage points of odds and allocation of effort to efforts to improve those odds. In the grand scheme of things, mask usage costs NOTHING and applies considerable downward pressure against the spread of respiratory illness. Just wear a fucking mask. It's a pandemic.

Agreed.

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1 hour ago, wild_turkey said:

Seems like there are a few ways to more strongly encourage vaccination:

1. Restrict freedoms for unvaccinated people. No more flying on a plane without a vaccine. Travel is a privilege and air travel currently has a mask mandate from the federal government, so replace the mask requirement with a vaccine requirement.
Maybe restrict in person learning at public universities to vaccinated people only. I suppose that would be a state level decision which means a lot of states with low vaccination rates wouldn’t do it because politics.

2. Provide more freedoms to vaccinated people. If unvaccinated people can’t fly, then everyone in the airports should be vaccinated and should be allowed to fly without a mask because we believe the vaccines are working. Get rid of the COVID test requirement for vaccinated people entering the U.S. from foreign travel. On that note, almost every situation that currently calls for a COVID screening test should be supplanted by proof of vaccine.

We absolutely should be doing these, and requiring vaccines for gatherings as well - sporting events, concerts, movie theaters, restaurants, bars, etc.  Unfortunately the political will isn't there.

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1 hour ago, wild_turkey said:

and anything to that effect, including asking vaccinated people to wear masks in public again, undermines the integrity of the vaccines and further supports unvaccinated people foolishly deciding not to ever get vaccinated.

They're not going to get vaccinated so we need to stop with worrying that we're going to scare them from getting vaccinated in the future. Besides the information is out there if they want to learn.

 

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2 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

First of all, I work in healthcare and wear a mask every day all day at work. So I'm not shedding the mask anytime soon as much as I would like to. I don't wear a mask to go into stores lately, but I also don't go into a lot of stores and I generally don't get too close to other people. I travel a decent amount and wear masks in airports and on planes. I'm not sure where else I should be wearing a mask that I'm not already.

Second of all, I'm highly skeptical of the idea that vaccinated people who don't wear masks will significantly increase the likelihood of a new deadlier variant emerging. I still feel like the rate of transmission from vaccinated people to each other or even to unvaccinated people is exceptionally low. Do I think it happens somewhere? Absolutely, but that's a tiny fraction of the total new cases of COVID in our country and worldwide, and therefore, a tiny possibility of a deadlier variant emerging.

If people are truly concerned about variants to that exceptionally small fraction of cases, then we should've never stopped masking to begin with, and we should continue all distancing precautions until the disease is completely eradicated from the earth. Close the bars, close the schools, stop allowing spectators at sports. Any new COVID case could be the deadly super variant that overpowers the vaccines and humanity will end.

But that would be ridiculous and we all know it, and anything to that effect, including asking vaccinated people to wear masks in public again, undermines the integrity of the vaccines and further supports unvaccinated people foolishly deciding not to ever get vaccinated.

That mostly sounds reasonable.  I will continue to defer to sources I trust for guidance on the appropriate actions that vaccinated people should be taking...if I can every figure out who they are.  When in doubt, I will wear a mask.  Unfortunately, I am in doubt far too often.   

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4 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

Seems like there are a few ways to more strongly encourage vaccination:

1. Restrict freedoms for unvaccinated people. No more flying on a plane without a vaccine. Travel is a privilege and air travel currently has a mask mandate from the federal government, so replace the mask requirement with a vaccine requirement.
Maybe restrict in person learning at public universities to vaccinated people only. I suppose that would be a state level decision which means a lot of states with low vaccination rates wouldn’t do it because politics.

2. Provide more freedoms to vaccinated people. If unvaccinated people can’t fly, then everyone in the airports should be vaccinated and should be allowed to fly without a mask because we believe the vaccines are working. Get rid of the COVID test requirement for vaccinated people entering the U.S. from foreign travel. On that note, almost every situation that currently calls for a COVID screening test should be supplanted by proof of vaccine.

3. Pay people. At a certain point, it’s simple economics. Estimate the healthcare cost of the projected Delta wave, take half that money, and divide it up as a tax incentive to everyone who was vaccinated this year. They probably should have made the last round of stimulus money contingent on having a vaccine. If people are really hurting financially and need money, then they need to at least do their part to help end the pandemic that triggered their hardship.

Actually if these sources within the administration are correct and the vaccinated population are transmitting at a high rate, shouldn’t their movements be restricted for the health and safety of everyone? Are masks really enough?

 

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2 hours ago, WBT said:

We absolutely should be doing these, and requiring vaccines for gatherings as well - sporting events, concerts, movie theaters, restaurants, bars, etc.  Unfortunately the political will isn't there.

Fuck yea... no moar speeding tickets or PIs to the Vaccinated!

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12 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

Actually if these sources within the administration are correct and the vaccinated population are transmitting at a high rate, shouldn’t their movements be restricted for the health and safety of everyone? Are masks really enough?

 

Have you been vaccinated?

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3 hours ago, Homercles said:

Lady who cuts my hair told me this morning how 2 of the 8 women who went to Mexico for a bachelorette came back positive…the two that weren’t vaccinated, naturally.  She went onto say that she was lucky they tested 72 hours (the limit) before leaving, as she started with symptoms 24 hours before leaving and was feeling so bad on the drive home from the airport that she went to the doc the very next morning.  
 

I sure do hope masks attenuate spread, and I’m glad they’re still required to fly…because those two ladies were in contact with dozens during their journey home as well as being in a tube of compressed air for 3 hours while starting to show symptoms at their most contagious.  

To

be fair, it’s not the same air the whole flight. It’s exchanged and filtered. The airlines claim its entirely exchanged every few minutes but we all know how trustworthy airlines and airplane manufacturers are when their bottom line gets affected. 

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5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

interestingly to me, our HEB still has a policy of vaccinated can be maskless posted. So that company still believes that vaccination is sufficient. 

My unvaccinated in-law, the qanon idiot, has let us know plenty of times that she thinks those signs about the vaccinated can go maskless are hilarious, because she can just tell any employees that look at her that she's vaccinated.

A part of me really wants Delta to thoroughly kick her ass so that she'd finally shut the fuck up about it being a hoax.

The problem is that she's currently not insured, and so if she ends up in the hospital, her dad and step-mom will pay for it (and it will be expensive as shit), which eats into my kids' inheritance.

Here's hoping Delta burns through so fast that infections go down rapidly in Texas.

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

Shit like this is why COVID is going to stick around a long time. Empowered stupidity and people using the excuse of "I just want more facts" to stubbornly refuse to take the smallest fucking action to help society as a whole.

No fucking shit.  The person who invented the Moderna vaccine is right there and you can ask her anything you want.  Who else do you want facts from?  Your dumb uncle on Facebook?

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7 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

No fucking shit.  The person who invented the Moderna vaccine is right there and you can ask her anything you want.  Who else do you want facts from?  Your dumb uncle on Facebook?

My dumbshit qanon in-law - her dad is a doctor, her mom and step-mom are also medical professionals.  One of her relatives is a medical professional who dealt with a bunch of covid patients over the past year or so.

She refuses to ask them any questions or have conversations abou tit.  Her dad, who gives her money when she needs it (which is basically monthly) has brought up the subject and explained to her that nobody in the family wants to be around her in-person as a result, and she changes the subject or leaves like a fucking forty-something teenager.

It's fucking insane.  And she has thrown temper tantrums over being asked to wear a mask.  Fucking mentally ill.

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

now its 90+%?  I'm saying no one knows.

Sure we know.  I live in CO, so I follow our data more closely than others.  But since January 1, 95% of all hospitalizations in CO are unvaccinated.  I have seen similar data from other states.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/colorado-data-shows-95-of-people-hospitalized-with-covid-in-colorado-since-january-were-unvaccinated

"At least 95% of the nearly 10,000 people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Colorado since mid-January were not vaccinated, according to data released by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment."

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I've been trying to find similar data for Austin/Travis County hospitalizations but didn't turn anything up.

I did see this on Texas deaths:

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/

"

Texas has seen nearly 9,000 COVID-19 deaths since February. All but 43 were unvaccinated people.

Preliminary data shows 99.5% of COVID-related deaths in Texas were among unvaccinated people, according to the Department of State Health Services."

 

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It looks like Texas doesn't track hospitalizations between vaccinated and unvaccinated, but here's an article that says 99.5% of deaths in TX since early Feb are unvaccinated.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/

 

EDIT:  @utee94beat me by a minute.

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1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

It looks like Texas doesn't track hospitalizations between vaccinated and unvaccinated, but here's an article that says 99.5% of deaths in TX since early Feb are unvaccinated.

 

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/21/coronavirus-texas-vaccinated-deaths/

Yeah it's really frustrating.  We can't keep a running tally on it, we have to rely on news releases like this.

Here's another one I found for Austin specifically, back on 7/10:

https://austonia.com/patients-90-percent-unvaccinated

Nearly all patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Austin are unvaccinated, report says

In a report from KXAN, Austin-Travis County Health Authority Dr. Desmar Walkes revealed that more than 90% of patients admitted to the hospital for COVID-19 were unvaccinated.

As of Friday evening, 89 people are hospitalized for the virus in the county. At least 80 of them are unvaccinated, and more than 40% of the patients are under the age of 50, according to the City of Austin.

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5 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Well shit, after 15 months of wearing masks everywhere and avoiding crowds at indoor venues, we went maskless for the first time at a memorial service for one of the Mueller BBQ family in the Taylor SPJST Hall this past Sunday. LA BBQ catered. Only saw one server wearing a mask. Some aggy sitting at a table near us.

Are we ded yet?

 

give it 2 weeks..maybe 3 if its long

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55 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

No fucking shit.  The person who invented the Moderna vaccine is right there and you can ask her anything you want.  Who else do you want facts from?  Your dumb uncle on Facebook?

He doesn't want more facts, he wants different "facts" that support not getting vaccinated.

ETA I would get vaccinated again just to get Dr. Corbett to smile at me like that.  Wow!

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