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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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18 hours ago, Bash Riprock said:

I tested positive yesterday.

 

I have nothing but a tickle in my throat. Nothing but Door Dash and seeing what is in the deep-freeze for me.

Best of luck. My only non medical professional advice is if it feels wrong is go get checked out. My health insurance is good but either way get checked out. Don’t fuck with the side shit. 

Edited by Fudbelty
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2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Glad ur fine but anywhere indoors with kids or indoors without masks is suicide. Hope things continue to improve

It was about a week before things started, or so I thought I read.  Early 2020.  For some of us, ignorance, i.e, before we stumbled onto the Surly Thread in March, was bliss.

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Little late in posting. Been at baseball tourneys all weekend.

48 cases day over day but still running up admits with 19 yesterday.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/18 vs 10/17 0 4 7 13 10 5 3 3 3 0 48
% of Daily Change 0.00% 8.33% 14.58% 27.08% 20.83% 10.42% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.90% 9.50% 26.98% 20.87% 15.86% 11.36% 6.45% 3.23% 2.32%   30,956
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Just got news on a patient from a few weeks ago. 32 yrs old, completely healthy, ASA 1. Had covid back in July. Tested negative 2 times since then. Totally asymptomatic, came in for a cyst removal. Left surgery center fine, no problems.

 

2 days later, went into complete cardio-pulmonary failure. Admitted to Methodist. Tested positive for COVID, died 24 hours after admission

 

 

I dont even know anymore

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I mean, did you not just read the above?

Yeah - has nothing to do with how I personally handled COVID. The one time I got the flu it was awful and I had to go to ER. Nearly had to do the same with Mono in college, got a terrible case of it. For whatever reason I didn’t handle those well but COVID was super minor for me, outside of the weird smell/taste thing
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Just got news on a patient from a few weeks ago. 32 yrs old, completely healthy, ASA 1. Had covid back in July. Tested negative 2 times since then. Totally asymptomatic, came in for a cyst removal. Left surgery center fine, no problems.
 
2 days later, went into complete cardio-pulmonary failure. Admitted to Methodist. Tested positive for COVID, died 24 hours after admission
 
 
I dont even know anymore

Well that’s terrifying. Especially for me.
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On 10/18/2020 at 7:44 AM, Fudbelty said:


Thank you. Other than just over all feeling like shit I did ok with the Covid. Like I said my body just went full inflame mode. It was odd for sure. Other than being a newborn I’ve never spent a full night in the hospital. I actually don’t think I was ever admitted in to one. Always ER and in and out.

My doc did mention they’re they’re thinking that the virus load you actually take On is how bad you get Covid itself.

I haven't checked in on this thread in awhile -- wow, you had a hell of a time. Glad you're on the mend. Confused by the "ok with the COVID" part of your comment, though. Wasn't the resulting storm all a result of having COVID-19? That's that they've been saying since the summer, I think. In autopsies they're finding a shocking number of clots. It's not so much the disease that kills you but the body's defense system turning things up to 11 (or more) causing the cytokine storm.

Be well. (BTW, kids' birthday parties at indoor locations, much less tramp parks, seem really, really ill-advised.)

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5 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:


Yeah - has nothing to do with how I personally handled COVID. The one time I got the flu it was awful and I had to go to ER. Nearly had to do the same with Mono in college, got a terrible case of it. For whatever reason I didn’t handle those well but COVID was super minor for me, outside of the weird smell/taste thing

But here's the thing; getting covid doesn't make you forever immune. Who's to say you are as fortunate a second time?

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But here's the thing; getting covid doesn't make you forever immune. Who's to say you are as fortunate a second time?

That’s what I’m struggling w now especially after reading the post about the guy who got it again. I know new virus that we still don’t know a ton about but I’ve basically been told I wouldn’t get it again. Really fucking weird and confusing. Are there medical experts here that can speak to that? Here or pm are fine.
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But here's the thing; getting covid doesn't make you forever immune. Who's to say you are as fortunate a second time?

And probably an equal chance I get a flu that puts me in hospital. Or some other weird sickness/disease.

For me (30, active, not overweight, no medical conditions) the stats just don’t support getting a case of COVID that is severe. I believe the fatality rate in my group is similar to the flu.

This fucking virus is a disaster in how it impacts the elderly at a devastating rate and the other somewhat random people it affects severely. I don’t really know how the world handles it, it’s not going anywhere. There is no time horizon where it disappears

I’d hate to be in government and places like CDC right now. I can’t see an answer.
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That’s what I’m struggling w now especially after reading the post about the guy who got it again. I know new virus that we still don’t know a ton about but I’ve basically been told I wouldn’t get it again. Really fucking weird and confusing. Are there medical experts here that can speak to that? Here or pm are fine.

I’ve blocked everything else out but CDC guidance. It’s made life easier.

They have a giant box on their website that says they don’t know much of anything about reinfection. All they know is that you almost certainly have a three month window after having it where you are clear.

With 40MM worldwide cases you would think there would be more reports of people getting it again (outside of 3 month window). That gives me some hope that most people carry some type of immunity for much longer than 3 months.
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Immunity to other corona viruses lasts from 8-15 months is what I’ve seen commonly reported. That’s from antibodies iirc. There’s been some discussion of this in the medical thread, but the honest answer is the cdc line. New virus, and there is a ton we don’t know. In particular the inflammatory response to these infections and subsequent ones.  

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7 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

This disease is fucking psycho. 

Yeah, just found out a cousin's FIL got it from his church up in Oklahoma, something like three dozen people, and it's fucking him up.  We can guess whether they were doing the mask thing (narrator: It's Oklahoma, so probably not).  This is the third person I've actually known who has caught it in the past 5 weeks, where it's put them in the hospital, and have known another half-dozen who have caught it within that period, who were able to stay home and/or had very minor effects.

Wife and I were were talking with my sister, and kind of doing a tally of friends/relatives that have had it, and we know more people who have caught it within the last two months, than the previous period back to March.

I'm guessing it's got to be people letting their guard down.  Which I get.

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Yeah we had to run through the calendar/counting days thing today as some friends told us they just tested positive. The entire family tested positive which is kind of crazy because the kids are 3 and 6mos. First kids that young I’ve personally known to get it... my kids of exact same age didn’t get it when I had it.

This is probably the 4th time we’ve had to do the counting days and contact tracing thing since March and it’s wearing on us. Completely shutting our lives down is virtually impossible with two little kids.

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58 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

This is probably the 4th time we’ve had to do the counting days and contact tracing thing since March and it’s wearing on us. Completely shutting our lives down is virtually impossible with two little kids.

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.

Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

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This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.
Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

Best of luck to you. It’s hard and we don’t have it as difficult as you. We’ve had some brief respites with some family close. But nothing like before... basically 7 straight months of constant kid care without 75% of our usual distractions available. You said it perfectly about when a funk goes through the house it’s basically a week of hell with limited options.

I’d definitely say my wife is borderline depressed for first time I’ve seen. I’m probably not far behind. Can’t go into office, just at home all day every day
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97 cases yesterday for Travis County. No real "gotchas" in the mix (beyond what we have been seeing lately)

20 hospital admits yesterday. (not good). Especially given the fact that we have been seeing consistently <100 cases/day for past couple of weeks.

Throughout the pandemic the % of cases ending up in hospitalizations have been ~15%. Last couple of weeks have been ~21% of cases ending up in hospital.

Not sure what happened on ICU front yesterday either as # jumped from 30 on 10/18 to 43 on 10/19. That's the highest ICU # since 9/5.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/19 vs 10/18 0 3 16 27 13 12 16 5 4 1 97
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.09% 16.49% 27.84% 13.40% 12.37% 16.49% 5.15% 4.12% 1.03%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.90% 9.52% 26.99% 20.85% 15.85% 11.37% 6.45% 3.24% 2.31%   31,053
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18 hours ago, Eastwood said:

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.

Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

 

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35 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Dont worry, im sure people wont gather for Halloween

I am getting one of the long PVC pipes and a elbow joint to make a candy delivery system. Can just drop it on from front porch directly into kids bucket/pillow case.

I think Halloween being on a Saturday will make it crazier than normal, but I won't be surprised to see Austin code enforcement and/or APD buzzing around the neighborhoods to keep traffic down etc

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13 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

 

I definitely relate to the travel thing. A couple of times over the lockdown period, we have traveled to visit family that is also locking down. The days that we are there, everyone is in a good mood, the kids are behaving like they used to, they're perfectly potty trained, and they respect bedtime like they used to. We got an Airbnb with a big back yard in Galveston at the end of summer and everything was running like it used to while we were there. Hell, even when we are just at a city park for hours, the kids are in a perfect mood. The moment we walk back through the door of the house, things immediately start to sour despite mentally preparing for it and trying to stay positive and actively trying to create a positive atmosphere. It's gotten to the point where I think we might have to sell the house when this is all over with. It's accumulated too much of a bad vibe with the family and has started to feel less like a home and more like a prison. If we can't shake that after this is all done, we will have to move.

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We recently went on a scenic vacation away from everything. Kids had a great time, always happy although they slept poorly which was painful for us. Definitely feel like we are running out of things to do at home.

On a positive side for the kids - we’ve bought so many more toys than I would have ever considered just to try and mix it up. But I’m sure as most parents have found out, if you give a kid a toy they’re going to ask for another in 73 seconds

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19 hours ago, Eastwood said:

This thing has exacted a heavy psychological and emotional toll on my household with small children and we haven't contracted COVID. I couldn't imagine what it would devolve into without it. Compound that with no family that can watch the kids within 180 miles, and we have had our kids (aged 5 and 3) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 7 months and 5 days, as of today. I can't think of a single time in my conscious life where my mom ever had me non-stop for that long of a period. Wife has asthma and I have two very elderly grandparents that I need to be able to help at a moment's notice, if the situation arises, so school and pre-k isn't an option and we are pretty much locked down. When a funk takes over the house, it is hell on Earth for about a week.

Good luck to anyone else out there in a similar situation and know that you aren't alone and it does indeed suck.

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

Our kids spent way too much time watching Netflix, Disney+, etc. at times since March, but they were in a funk not being able to directly play with their classmates/friends, etc. and not being able to be dumped off at relatives.  I swear, having them 24/7 for 6 months or so aged me several years.

They seem to have come through it just fine, and are back in class, but because we do have a couple of elderly relatives in town, that we need to help out, we are still strict outside of school (which sucks, because we know and see many parents who aren't), and we are ready to yank them from school for a few weeks if need be.

It's tacky to say, but we are fortunate enough to have had a couple of relatives who went into the hospital, and we saw that play out in all its glory on FB, so the kids understand why we are careful - we had kids later in life, so our parents are all over 70.  On the one hand, we haven't drummed it into their heads to be ultra, ultra paranoid, on the other hand, they know what could happen to their grandparents if we weren't careful, so they understand.

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41 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

On a positive side for the kids - we’ve bought so many more toys than I would have ever considered just to try and mix it up. But I’m sure as most parents have found out, if you give a kid a toy they’re going to ask for another in 73 seconds

I kind of think the kids will bounce back from all of this easier than the adults, not because of the toys, but that helps, lol.  Because our kids are the youngest grandkids in the family, and because we couldn't see them over spring break and the summer like normal, the grandparents have spoiled the hell out of them.   And we do regular FaceTime/Zoom calls with a lot of the extended family, and nearly daily with the grandparents, so in some ways we are all much more connected.  Yeah, it's better to see a aunt or uncle or cousin in person, but going from occasional phone calls and seeing them twice a year at the most, to monthly video chats has been one benefit.

But yeah, my oldest's LEGO's collection.....by the time he finishes high school, that thing could probably pay off his first year or two of college.

And for better or for worse, our kids are much more technically adept at their ages than we were ready for.

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4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

97 cases yesterday for Travis County. No real "gotchas" in the mix (beyond what we have been seeing lately)

20 hospital admits yesterday. (not good). Especially given the fact that we have been seeing consistently <100 cases/day for past couple of weeks.

Throughout the pandemic the % of cases ending up in hospitalizations have been ~15%. Last couple of weeks have been ~21% of cases ending up in hospital.

Not sure what happened on ICU front yesterday either as # jumped from 30 on 10/18 to 43 on 10/19. That's the highest ICU # since 9/5.

Any chance it's folks from surrounding counties?  Some are running things much more open than TC, and some are really squeezed on hospital capacity.

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5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

What has been the trend in Austin, Houston, and Dallas over the past month? My relatives have told me that the case numbers in Houston have been climbing. 

Austin has been on a steady decline overall.

You saw a trend end of June/Mid July where Travis County was at ~470 cases a day average for about three weeks

Then from Mid July to Mid August numbers dropped to ~230 cases a day

Mid Aug to Mid Sept droppe dto ~127 cases a day

Mid Sept to Mid Oct ~90 cases a day

So pretty consistently trending down on overall cases/day.

 

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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

What has been the trend in Austin, Houston, and Dallas over the past month? My relatives have told me that the case numbers in Houston have been climbing. 

Dallas is trending up.   The county is always late with the more detailed data lately (should have been a report released today - not out yet) but last Friday's report showed the week ending 10/10 resulted in the first significant increase in positivity rate in 6 weeks (highest level since early August).  Cases have been trending up slightly since late September and it appears almost certain based on the typical reporting lag time that the next few reports will show that hospitalizations were at the lowest point late September/early October then started trending up again.  It's completely different than the skyrocketing rates we saw in June.  Much more of a slow burn this time.  But things aren't looking good heading into actual fall.  We've been better than most but not great either - probably time to button things up a bit (outside of kids in pre-k which we're just accepting that risk at this point). Anecdotally definitely see a lot of COVID fatigue (even shit like half the people masked at Costco aren't wearing them right).

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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Curious what made you decide to get tested if mild symptoms?  

My parents have/had it. And they felt horrible a couple of weeks ago and I hugged my Mom's neck on her birthday (before i knew she had it on the 8th). My niece works at a clinic and got me in quick just to be safe. I didn't think I had it, but I did. 

Edited by Bash Riprock
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8 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

checking in. 3 kids under the age of 7 and no family help...we live in the mountains and are fortunate we can get outside and do things, but the world gets real small in the winter. we're going down to Mexico for 4 months, leaving in 2 weeks. obviously covid is bad down there, but it's basically a hail mary to keep the family semi-functioning...our kids just do better when they're able to be outside, so they'll have the pool and beach and we'll be able to socially distance but be outside. i honestly don't think we'd make it stuck in the house together this winter after the last 7 months or whatever.

 

Mine are 11, but the weather is the same. This year we bought season passes to a place that’s open all week, so we can go whenever we feel like we need to get out. Doubt we will be going into the lodge though. 

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12 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

Travis County 7-day hospitalization average increased 37% from 10/14 - 10/21.

Nothing to see here.

 

Number moving in the wrong direction.  We need to turn that around quick.  But we should also note that that 37% is based on an increase of n=5 or so in the daily hospitalization rates. We need to get going in the other direction again, and it should not take a whole lot of effort to do it, unless we are indeed on the verge of a second wave spike. I don't think that we are, but we should know in another 10-14 days. 

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106 cases for Travis county yesterday with a fairly normal distribution. 25 hospital admits which is highest day since Sept 3rd. 118 total hospitalizations currently which is highest since Sept 7th. Of equal if not greater concern is the % of patients that are in the ICU. We currently see 45 patients in the ICU which as a percentage of hospitalizations is 38.14%. The 45 ICU patients is the highest since Sept 4th. What is concerning is that of the cases Travis County is having a much higher % of them are ending up in the hospital. The average since March of admits/cases is 15.47%. The rolling 7 day average is is 20.7%. The average for October is 19.42% so although it is also higher than the total avg admits/cases the past 7 days are accelerating even past that.

It has been four straight days of increasing admit numbers. People need to be more watchful than ever. Worry I have is that with all the early voting lines and people jamming up on themselves (at least in videos I have seen) that this is poised to contribute heavily as well (fingers crossed not)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 10/20 vs 10/19 0 8 11 26 16 19 14 6 5 1 106
% of Daily Change 0.00% 7.55% 10.38% 24.53% 15.09% 17.92% 13.21% 5.66% 4.72% 0.94%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.91% 9.53% 26.98% 20.83% 15.86% 11.38% 6.44% 3.24% 2.31%   31,159
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5 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Travis County 7-day hospitalization average increased 37% from 10/14 - 10/21.

Nothing to see here.

Travis County came out today asking people not to trick-or-treat, or do parties over Halloween.

And I imagine that if a lot of people are paying attention, they may see a slight rise, rush to the stores, thereby putting more people in the stores, and stock up on 6 months worth of supplies.  Or they maybe worried there's another stay-at-home order coming, so they go hit the bars/have parties/etc. one last time before things shut down again.

Because that's what we do.

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