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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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3 hours ago, sidis said:

well, if you look at the trends, we are heading up fast.  very fast.  and that's with the benefit of vaccinations.  too many fucking idiot antivax fucking fucks fucking everything up.

Was in two different Buc-ee’s today, in the Houston area.  I would be surprised if 5% were masked, and holy shit their clientele have underlying conditions.   Been a while since I’ve been in one, and they should be selling insulin.  

Got some weird looks for being masked up.

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20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Was in two different Buc-ee’s today, in the Houston area.  I would be surprised if 5% were masked, and holy shit their clientele have underlying conditions.   Been a while since I’ve been in one, and they should be selling insulin.  

Got some weird looks for being masked up.

First stall tap didn't work out for you, eh?  It's okay.  You're young, you'll bounce back.  

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11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

First stall tap didn't work out for you, eh?  It's okay.  You're young, you'll bounce back.  

Yeah, I had the same fucking question - What the hell would someone be doing to need to go to 2 Buc-ee's in the same day? Maybe looking for a coonskin cap or a Dukes of Hazzard "General Lee" t-shirt?

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9 hours ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, I had the same fucking question - What the hell would someone be doing to need to go to 2 Buc-ee's in the same day? Maybe looking for a coonskin cap or a Dukes of Hazzard "General Lee" t-shirt?

Clean bathrooms, because I’ve got two small kids.   We plan road trip routes around clean bathrooms.  We don’t do bush wees as much Bluey’s parents.  

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15 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

Our hospitals are not getting turbofucked. It's nothing like the two previous big waves, see the two posts above me for the hospitalization numbers. For deaths it's the same story. If you worked in hospital setting you would know that.

This wave is getting a lot of attention because people are frustrated and scared. They're frustrated because they thought we were past restrictions and they're scared because they thought after they were vaccinated they weren't going to get sick. Now they know people or see on TV that vaccinated people are catching it. The key is to focus on the lower rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Don't let the fear get to you. In a few weeks, Delta variant will be largely done.

 

1 minute ago, whithou said:

My hospital system in Houston is drowning right now with this recent wave. It seemed like overnight last week that my ICU unit got overwhelmed with COVID. So far all of our patients in the ICU have been unvaccinated. Our CEO sent out an email yesterday saying that since the beginning of the year our hospital system has had around 220 COVID deaths and all of those were unvaccinated individuals. My patient that I had the other day got it at their own birthday party and we intubated them yesterday after I noticed them starting to act a little odd (a change in mental status is a quick ticket to intubation with COVID patients). From my view, this variant has been more deadly and we are intubating more frequently this time around. We are out of ICU beds and COVID patients that need an ICU bed are once again waiting down in the Emergency Center. To top it off, we are short staffed as most nurses have taken travel assignments or have left bedside all together. Because if a nurse has to deal with this mess again, might as well be making $120/hr on a travel assignment.

Oh good @Muy Frio please tell our medical professional posters that things are peachy. Because from what I've read from trauma babe and the other nurses here on surly.... it isn't exactly the basket of peaches you make it out to be.

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Any Texas hospital, that is not experiencing capacity issues, will see this problem soon. There isn't any sizable Texas county that has peaked with this wave. The large cities have barely moved into the wave but the hospitals are full.

Hospitals have some ability to manage bed capacity but unfortunately it often involves pushing some patients away from necessary care which can potentially be delayed.  It's easy to not fully count people that are suffering and potentially dying from non-covid conditions.

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51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Any Texas hospital, that is not experiencing capacity issues, will see this problem soon. There isn't any sizable Texas county that has peaked with this wave. The large cities have barely moved into the wave but the hospitals are full.

Hospitals have some ability to manage bed capacity but unfortunately it often involves pushing some patients away from necessary care which can potentially be delayed.  It's easy to not fully count people that are suffering and potentially dying from non-covid conditions.

Pretty much this. I think we know of a smaller fraction of infection than prior to Delta spread for a few reasons. 1) Younger people experiencing symptoms may be less inclined to get tested due to the mild nature of even the Delta variant in a lot of them. I have diagnosed Covid in a lot of people who came in for their "allergies." 2) Many who are resistant to vaccination may also be resistant to seek medical care anyway. Who wants to be proven wrong?  (this is a spitball comment by me). 3) Vaccinated breakthrough cases are largely mild and may not prompt people to seek care for their mild illness.  OTC testing kit positives may never seek care and be counted as an official positive.

I think this is why we see an incongruence in the number of young people officially diagnosed and then entering the hospital for care. There are so many infections that we are bound to have younger well people hospitalized just by chance of bad outcomes. This happens in influenza. If you get enough healthy people sick, some are going to have a horrible reaction to their infection. My conjecture is that we have a lot of uncounted infections and this is why we see the strain on the hospital systems already. We can only hope the Delta strain burns through quickly like other countries.

I am glad that many more are getting vaccinated but we are six weeks too late on this action.  I would be surprised if we peak prior to the start of school. And with the easier spread among children under 12, Delta could potentially run rampant through our elementary schools and middle/high schools (with poor immunization rates) if mitigation measures are not taken. The alpha variant did not do this.

 

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9 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Pretty much this. I think we know of a smaller fraction of infection than prior to Delta spread for a few reasons. 1) Younger people experiencing symptoms may be less inclined to get tested due to the mild nature of even the Delta variant in a lot of them. I have diagnosed Covid in a lot of people who came in for their "allergies." 2) Many who are resistant to vaccination may also be resistant to seek medical care anyway. Who wants to be proven wrong?  (this is a spitball comment by me). 3) Vaccinated breakthrough cases are largely mild and may not prompt people to seek care for their mild illness.  OTC testing kit positives may never seek care and be counted as an official positive.

I think this is why we see an incongruence in the number of young people officially diagnosed and then entering the hospital for care. There are so many infections that we are bound to have younger well people hospitalized just by chance of bad outcomes. This happens in influenza. If you get enough healthy people sick, some are going to have a horrible reaction to their infection. My conjecture is that we have a lot of uncounted infections and this is why we see the strain on the hospital systems already. We can only hope the Delta strain burns through quickly like other countries.

I am glad that many more are getting vaccinated but we are six weeks too late on this action.  I would be surprised if we peak prior to the start of school. And with the easier spread among children under 12, Delta could potentially run rampant through our elementary schools and middle/high schools (with poor immunization rates) if mitigation measures are not taken. The alpha variant did not do this.

 

I'm really worried about schools turning this into a complete fucking disaster.  Since TX schools can no longer have mask mandates and everyone under 12 being unvaccinated.  This is going to be a shit show in 2 weeks.

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1 minute ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'm really worried about schools turning this into a complete fucking disaster.  Since TX schools can no longer have mask mandates and everyone under 12 being unvaccinated.  This is going to be a shit show in 2 weeks.

 

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3 hours ago, Captainant said:

 

Oh good @Muy Frio please tell our medical professional posters that things are peachy. Because from what I've read from trauma babe and the other nurses here on surly.... it isn't exactly the basket of peaches you make it out to be.

I didn’t say it’s peachy. I said it’s not “turbofucked” when hospitalizations are still 30% below last summer’s peak, much less last winter’s. Yes some hospitals will be strained. I’m just going off the official state and national numbers. 
 

 

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2 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I'm really worried about schools turning this into a complete fucking disaster.  Since TX schools can no longer have mask mandates and everyone under 12 being unvaccinated.  This is going to be a shit show in 2 weeks.

Private schools can mandate masks, and plenty appear to be from what friends/family are saying.  Of course, those private schools don't want to pay staff to sit out two weeks for quarantine.

AISD is making their final determination on who gets to be virtual next week, as are other districts.  I think everybody is hoping some things can change and they can mandate masks.

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On a graph, the rise in cases statewide is just as steep as the rise was last summer.  But that first rise began in mid June 2020 and peaked on July 20, 2020, whereas the current rise began in mid July 2021 and shows no indication that it has peaked or is peaking..  I don't think comparing peak summer 2020 numbers with our current numbers, when the trajectory looks the same and with nothing but voluntary measures currently in place to prevent spread is conclusive proof of whether our healthcare system is looking down the barrel of being forced induction fucked.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Private schools can mandate masks, and plenty appear to be from what friends/family are saying.  Of course, those private schools don't want to pay staff to sit out two weeks for quarantine.

AISD is making their final determination on who gets to be virtual next week, as are other districts.  I think everybody is hoping some things can change and they can mandate masks.

Bonus points for kids over 12 with vaccination.  More bonus points for kids who voluntarily wear masks regularly. 

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Hospitals may not be as bad as they were last year but those hospitals are able to create models for later this month and September. Hospitalizations trail positive cases so the hospitals can estimate what is coming down the road.

Some larger hospitals have the ability to increase ICU capacity as needed but there are limits and it impacts other services.

I hope I'm wrong but I think Texas will be in a world of hurt in about 2-4 weeks from now. We may mimic Missouri that looked bad for a while but have somewhat limited recent positive case growth, or we may look more like LA, who is finding new highs each day.

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20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I had a co-worker that made his daughter wear a mask at home while she was attending school in person. I assume she spent a great deal of time in her bedroom.

Since we're all vaccinated (minus my youngest) we're not doing this and won't do this when they go back to school.  We will be quarantining if my youngest gets exposed which seems like a certainty at school.

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Hit more of my extended family (5/6 in my cousin's family tested positive).  Both parents (late 30's) and all kids unvaxed although only 1 is eligible.  But the mom and 15 year old daughter are struggling.  Not hospitalized (yet) but having a tough go.  I have no doubt they regret not getting vaccine.  

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I have 3 friends who are vaxxed and thinking about heading to the hospital due to feeling so shitty. 1 is a couple, they all had covid pretty bad last year , one day one buddy said his knees and ankles hurt so bad he couldn't walk. They are all feeling almost the same now got tested and it was negative for covid at CVS and another clinic but they describe the same shit they had last year. This bullshit is gonna hit us again isn't it? 

One text I got was the 2 shots were worthless if I am feeling the same way now. I responded with "imagine how bad it would be without the vaccine" but honestly if vaccinated folks are still getting their ass whipped by this then I don't see the anti-vax people doing much. At least in my limited DFW section of friends

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28 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

I have 3 friends who are vaxxed and thinking about heading to the hospital due to feeling so shitty. 1 is a couple, they all had covid pretty bad last year , one day one buddy said his knees and ankles hurt so bad he couldn't walk. They are all feeling almost the same now got tested and it was negative for covid at CVS and another clinic but they describe the same shit they had last year. This bullshit is gonna hit us again isn't it? 

One text I got was the 2 shots were worthless if I am feeling the same way now. I responded with "imagine how bad it would be without the vaccine" but honestly if vaccinated folks are still getting their ass whipped by this then I don't see the anti-vax people doing much. At least in my limited DFW section of friends

2 negative tests?  Very likely not COVID.

Were these rapid tests?

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32 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

I have 3 friends who are vaxxed and thinking about heading to the hospital due to feeling so shitty. 1 is a couple, they all had covid pretty bad last year , one day one buddy said his knees and ankles hurt so bad he couldn't walk. They are all feeling almost the same now got tested and it was negative for covid at CVS and another clinic but they describe the same shit they had last year. This bullshit is gonna hit us again isn't it? 

One text I got was the 2 shots were worthless if I am feeling the same way now. I responded with "imagine how bad it would be without the vaccine" but honestly if vaccinated folks are still getting their ass whipped by this then I don't see the anti-vax people doing much. At least in my limited DFW section of friends

If they were negative for COVID, chances are the 2 shots were worthless for whatever ails them.

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46 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

I have 3 friends who are vaxxed and thinking about heading to the hospital due to feeling so shitty. 1 is a couple, they all had covid pretty bad last year , one day one buddy said his knees and ankles hurt so bad he couldn't walk. They are all feeling almost the same now got tested and it was negative for covid at CVS and another clinic but they describe the same shit they had last year. This bullshit is gonna hit us again isn't it? 

One text I got was the 2 shots were worthless if I am feeling the same way now. I responded with "imagine how bad it would be without the vaccine" but honestly if vaccinated folks are still getting their ass whipped by this then I don't see the anti-vax people doing much. At least in my limited DFW section of friends

Everyone has to decide for themselves when to head to an ER but I wouldn't go down there if I had negative COVID tests. Complain of COVID symptoms to the ER and you probably will end up waiting near someone that does have COVID. 

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Another shitty day in Travis County. 601 cases today (albeit Tuesday is normally a true up day from weekend but still this is high). There were 335 cases on Aug 3rd in 2020. 433 people hospitalized today vs 310 this date last year. 76 admits as well. All in all not great. If you are not vaccinated I highly recommend you get it done. Mask up, stay safe.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 8/3 vs 8/2 4 39 91 146 146 77 51 24 15 8 601
% of Daily Change 0.67% 6.49% 15.14% 24.29% 24.29% 12.81% 8.49% 3.99% 2.50% 1.33%  
% of Total Cases 0.64% 4.43% 10.70% 26.04% 20.76% 14.84% 11.02% 6.43% 3.13% 2.01%  
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15 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

It really is all the younger folks that didn't get vaccinated just due to being young and I guess not worrying about it that are major drivers of this. They need to get their shit together.

Yep and as I posted above 17 more in ICU beds. If this pattern keeps up plus back to school, we're in for a world of hurt

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1 hour ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

2 negative tests?  Very likely not COVID.

Were these rapid tests?

They were the CVS ones, had to wait 3 days for results. They went to PCP between getting tested and results because of feeling so shitty

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Everyone has to decide for themselves when to head to an ER but I wouldn't go down there if I had negative COVID tests. Complain of COVID symptoms to the ER and you probably will end up waiting near someone that does have COVID. 

This is actually a good point. My buddy said he is feeling better but his gf is still pretty bad. Wild since we had a softball tournament the day before it got bad. They played and said allergies were fucking with them. No one else from our teams is feeling anything

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1 minute ago, Zepol87 said:

They were the CVS ones, had to wait 3 days for results. They went to PCP between getting tested and results because of feeling so shitty

This is actually a good point. My buddy said he is feeling better but his gf is still pretty bad. Wild since we had a softball tournament the day before it got bad. They played and said allergies were fucking with them. No one else from our teams is feeling anything

If you can find one get a pulse ox monitor. You can find them on Amazon for $20.  This way they can monitor if they're just feeling shitty or if it is an actual emergency

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1 hour ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

If you can find one get a pulse ox monitor. You can find them on Amazon for $20.  This way they can monitor if they're just feeling shitty or if it is an actual emergency

Lots of modern smartphones have SpO2 measuring functions built in (Galaxy S phones, apple watch, etc) which may be handier or less of a wait than ordering one too

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1 hour ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

If you can find one get a pulse ox monitor. You can find them on Amazon for $20.  This way they can monitor if they're just feeling shitty or if it is an actual emergency

 

1 hour ago, Zepol87 said:

They were the CVS ones, had to wait 3 days for results. They went to PCP between getting tested and results because of feeling so shitty

This is actually a good point. My buddy said he is feeling better but his gf is still pretty bad. Wild since we had a softball tournament the day before it got bad. They played and said allergies were fucking with them. No one else from our teams is feeling anything

Here is a great and simple test to tell if you really need to go to ER even with Covid. If you have covid shortness of breath is common with exertion, but if you get out of breath talking then you need to go in. Otherwise there’s not much that they’ll do for you. 

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disgraceful. 
And I thought Austin was more vaxxed than most everywhere else in Texas ?

His post was referring to Texas as a whole. And yes, Austin is among the highest vax rates. Of course, we also receive hospitalizations from all the surrounding counties, many of which have low vax rates.
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12 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

They were the CVS ones, had to wait 3 days for results. They went to PCP between getting tested and results because of feeling so shitty

This is actually a good point. My buddy said he is feeling better but his gf is still pretty bad. Wild since we had a softball tournament the day before it got bad. They played and said allergies were fucking with them. No one else from our teams is feeling anything

I understand commitments to friends like when you’re playing in a tournament but it’s a dickhead move to show up somewhere now when you’re feeling sick, even if you think it’s allergies. I understand it’s harder to transmit covid if you’re outside but not impossible.

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9 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


His post was referring to Texas as a whole. And yes, Austin is among the highest vax rates. Of course, we also receive hospitalizations from all the surrounding counties, many of which have low vax rates.

Vaccination rates by surrounding Counties amongst 12 years old + population (fully vaccinated rates). Basically Travis & Williamson are surrounded by pockets of stupid. This is why the ICUs are flooded and hospitalizations are through the rough.

Bastrop: 47.32%

Blanco: 48.07%

Burnet: 44.51%

Burleson: 41.38%

Caldwell: 44.18%

Gillespie: 48.81%

Hays: 54.99%

Kimble: 37.47%

Llano: 45.73%

Lampasas: 36.69%

Lee: 40.19%

Mason: 43.91%

Mccullough: 32.18%

San Saba: 29.93%

Travis: 63.49%

Washington: 44.92%

Williamson: 61.80%

 

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One of Houston’s county hospitals had a 24-hr ER wait time on Sunday due to staffing shortages. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/health/article/Houston-nursing-shortage-comes-to-a-head-as-16361747.php

Texas Children’s in Houston previously took adult Covid patients in the other waves, this time they can’t: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/coronavirus/article/Texas-Children-s-took-adult-patients-in-past-16361242.php

And this is all happening BEFORE covid is bad in Houston again. I realize no one want to lock themselves down, but this could be the worse time, to socialize or go around without a mask, since covid started.  And I went to a bar with friends the other day so I’m just as much to blame. I’m going to stop that for a while.

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20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand commitments to friends like when you’re playing in a tournament but it’s a dickhead move to show up somewhere now when you’re feeling sick, even if you think it’s allergies. I understand it’s harder to transmit covid if you’re outside but not impossible.

Definitely agree and couple of people let them know

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48 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Vaccination rates by surrounding Counties amongst 12 years old + population (fully vaccinated rates). Basically Travis & Williamson are surrounded by pockets of stupid. This is why the ICUs are flooded and hospitalizations are through the rough.

Bastrop: 47.32%

Blanco: 48.07%

Burnet: 44.51%

Burleson: 41.38%

Caldwell: 44.18%

Gillespie: 48.81%

Hays: 54.99%

Kimble: 37.47%

Llano: 45.73%

Lampasas: 36.69%

Lee: 40.19%

Mason: 43.91%

Mccullough: 32.18%

San Saba: 29.93%

Travis: 63.49%

Washington: 44.92%

Williamson: 61.80%

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Anyone got a take on this groups prior model performance?

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/dashboards/austin/

Screenshot-2021-08-04-085742.jpg

 

 

I don't know if any of this is COVID related but my pool guy, my HVAC guy's assistant, 3 kids and their mom and 4 patients have all missed appointments or work this week - all in Austin. That is more people sick at one time than I experienced at any particular time in 2020.

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14 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

They were the CVS ones, had to wait 3 days for results. They went to PCP between getting tested and results because of feeling so shitty

This is actually a good point. My buddy said he is feeling better but his gf is still pretty bad. Wild since we had a softball tournament the day before it got bad. They played and said allergies were fucking with them. No one else from our teams is feeling anything

maybe (hopefully) they just have that other wicked rsv virus going around? my sister and her friend, both vaxed, got that and it kicked their asses for over a week. they both were convinced they had covid...but negative tests, friend officially diagnosed with rsv.

seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...

but it seems logical that once people were vaxed and things opened up and we started back to normal lives and socializing that the normal bugs - colds, flu, stomach bugs, viruses, etc. - would have a field day. or is that not how that works? 🤔

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12 hours ago, Muy Frio said:

 

Here is a great and simple test to tell if you really need to go to ER even with Covid. If you have covid shortness of breath is common with exertion, but if you get out of breath talking then you need to go in. Otherwise there’s not much that they’ll do for you. 

Yep, my cousin and 15 year old daughter both feeling miserable and went to ER.  Basically they said you have a relatively severe case but vitals/oxygen level still ok and what they are dealing with isn't out of ordinary.  Nothing you can do but continue monitoring oxygen, rest, try to make yourself eat/stay hydrated and ride it out.  

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