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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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2 minutes ago, mchookem said:

 

seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...

 

Have family in town that is a pediatrician in Minnesota. That is exactly what she is saying.  Seeing more RSV in summer than they almost ever do in winter.   Kids all getting together at camps, sports, or just otherwise with zero social distancing after a year of being exposed to almost nothing.  Pre-K could be a bitch this year.  Not only with actual threat of COVID and all the other kid diseases and probably an increased risk of getting actually sick, but with the COVID threat, another year of kids getting sent home with every sniffle.  Who knows how long it will be until things are truly "normal' again.

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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Have family in town that is a pediatrician in Minnesota. That is exactly what she is saying.  Seeing more RSV in summer than they almost ever do in winter.   Kids all getting together at camps, sports, or just otherwise with zero social distancing after a year of being exposed to almost nothing.  Pre-K could be a bitch this year.  Not only with actual threat of COVID and all the other kid diseases and probably an increased risk of getting actually sick, but with the COVID threat, another year of kids getting sent home with every sniffle.  Who knows how long it will be until things are truly "normal' again.

Isn’t this kind of an argument for resuming normal life and acquiring herd immunity? Immunity now or immunity later?

I’m not saying either way (masking and distancing vs going back to normal) is correct I’m just saying that I can see the benefits of both.

Edited by Billy Pilgrim
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I understand commitments to friends like when you’re playing in a tournament but it’s a dickhead move to show up somewhere now when you’re feeling sick, even if you think it’s allergies. I understand it’s harder to transmit covid if you’re outside but not impossible.

It’s always been a dickhead move to show up somewhere when you’re feeling sick.

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maybe (hopefully) they just have that other wicked rsv virus going around? my sister and her friend, both vaxed, got that and it kicked their asses for over a week. they both were convinced they had covid...but negative tests, friend officially diagnosed with rsv.
seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...
but it seems logical that once people were vaxed and things opened up and we started back to normal lives and socializing that the normal bugs - colds, flu, stomach bugs, viruses, etc. - would have a field day. or is that not how that works?

I got sick twice within a month of emerging post vax (actually post first shot - had no choice as I had to travel to help with surgery for my mom). Covid negative both times. Just random shit I picked up. So anecdotally it worked this way for me.
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56 minutes ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Isn’t this kind of an argument for resuming normal life and acquiring herd immunity? Immunity now or immunity later?

I’m not saying either way (masking and distancing vs going back to normal) is correct I’m just saying that I can see the benefits of both.

I don't disagree if you include vaccination as part of the solution.   The issue with older kids as well is that Delta is so damn contagious, even if the kids aren't at high risk of severe disease, the schools are certainly at high risk of major outbreaks shutting shit down.  So I can see the reasoning from that perspective if trying to have a relatively normal school year.  But my kids are still in Pre-K, no masks, so haven't given too much thought to that debate.

Edited by Skipper
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1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Yep, my cousin and 15 year old daughter both feeling miserable and went to ER.  Basically they said you have a relatively severe case but vitals/oxygen level still ok and what they are dealing with isn't out of ordinary.  Nothing you can do but continue monitoring oxygen, rest, try to make yourself eat/stay hydrated and ride it out.  

You didn't state their vaccine status, but I have to wonder how many people are reluctant to get the vaccine but then are quick to run to the ER. If needed, someone should definitely go to the ER but it's odd that someone would be completely open to experimental treatments but they don't want the "experimental" vaccine.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You didn't state their vaccine status, but I have to wonder how many people are reluctant to get the vaccine but then are quick to run to the ER. If needed, someone should definitely go to the ER but it's odd that someone would be completely open to experimental treatments but they don't want the "experimental" vaccine.

I mentioned in this thread or another thread yesterday but they were unvaccinated.   I haven't discussed vaccines with them directly but it sounds more like they are the type that don't typically prioritize flu shots and based on anecdotal experiences among friends didn't think a big deal at their age and not some political stance (i.e., I'm confident they were not Trump voters). No doubt they regret that decision now after this has been kicking their ass. 

Per the state wide stats, there has been a material increase in first shots the last few weeks, likely people that fall into this category (i.e., not "against it" but either didn't prioritize it or didn't think really needed).  Too little too late for many but I'm hoping the combo of this rapid spread + increased vaccinations results in this current wave cresting soon.

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3 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Vaccination rates by surrounding Counties amongst 12 years old + population (fully vaccinated rates). Basically Travis & Williamson are surrounded by pockets of stupid. This is why the ICUs are flooded and hospitalizations are through the rough.

Bastrop: 47.32%

Blanco: 48.07%

Burnet: 44.51%

Burleson: 41.38%

Caldwell: 44.18%

Gillespie: 48.81%

Hays: 54.99%

Kimble: 37.47%

Llano: 45.73%

Lampasas: 36.69%

Lee: 40.19%

Mason: 43.91%

Mccullough: 32.18%

San Saba: 29.93%

Travis: 63.49%

Washington: 44.92%

Williamson: 61.80%

 

Least surprising statistic in history. Called it months ago. Unvaccinated rural idiots would fill up our Austin/Williamson/hays hospitals. Just thought it would all start in mid to late September, not fucking July. 

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57 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Least surprising statistic in history. Called it months ago. Unvaccinated rural idiots would fill up our Austin/Williamson/hays hospitals. Just thought it would all start in mid to late September, not fucking July. 

Perhaps not. I was looking through the APH data from KXAN you linked earlier, and found this:

image.thumb.png.b23c0d6ce2077dd5ae6b3fc86085558a.png

 

390/530 (74%) admissions were from Travis and Williamson.

 

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/08/APH-COVID-19-Briefing-TCCC-8-3-21.pdf

 

 

 

Edited by utee94
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1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Perhaps not. I was looking through the APH data from KXAN you linked earlier, and found this:

image.thumb.png.b23c0d6ce2077dd5ae6b3fc86085558a.png

 

390/530 (74%) admissions were from Travis and Williamson.

 

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/08/APH-COVID-19-Briefing-TCCC-8-3-21.pdf

 

 

 

But of those top 6 counties, Travis and Williamson make up 82% of the population of the combined counties. the smaller counties are overindexed by a fair amount in the hospitalization rate.

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4 hours ago, mchookem said:

maybe (hopefully) they just have that other wicked rsv virus going around? my sister and her friend, both vaxed, got that and it kicked their asses for over a week. they both were convinced they had covid...but negative tests, friend officially diagnosed with rsv.

seems to me most of our immune systems have had a long year+ vacation. of course i'm not a doctor, i don't even know if that's how immune systems work lol...

but it seems logical that once people were vaxed and things opened up and we started back to normal lives and socializing that the normal bugs - colds, flu, stomach bugs, viruses, etc. - would have a field day. or is that not how that works? 🤔

Coronavirus OC43 making the rounds as well.  Knocked a buddy of mine (vaxxed) down  for several days before he got a zpack.  He still has a persistent cough from it.  Tested for Covid.  Found out it was OC43 (Cold)

Edited by dcbc
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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

But of those top 6 counties, Travis and Williamson make up 82% of the population of the combined counties. the smaller counties are overindexed by a fair amount in the hospitalization rate.

18% of the population and 26% of admits doesn't indicate to me that "unvaccinated rural idiots are filling up our hospitals."  We have plenty of unvaccinated urban idiots that are filling up those hospital beds. 

The outlying counties are certainly somewhat  over-represented, but they also don't have the same resources available to them within their own communities, and it's standard procedure for them to lean on the larger and better hospitals in Travis County, during medical emergencies.  That's the way the system is designed to work.  

 

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16 hours ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

disgraceful. 

And I thought Austin was more vaxxed than most everywhere else in Texas ?

Iceland was super successful with vaccinations, 70-80%

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/23/iceland-tourism-pandemic-covid-vaccine/

Still had a 'surge' and going back to shutting everything down

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-iceland-reimposes-covid-restrictions-cases.html

The vaccination rates don't appear to have any effect on the COVID rates as far as I can tell. Maybe I'm not looking at the same statistics as yall.

 

I have a question for you guys that are balls deep into this shit, what ever happened to the freezers and keeping the vaccines cold. They spent like $2B on special freezers and storage at one point? Did they just say "fuck it" and forget about all this?

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-vaccines-cold-freeze-pfizer-moderna

Pfizer is racing to get approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, applying for emergency use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on November 20. But the pharmaceutical giant faces a huge challenge in distributing its vaccine, which has to be kept an ultrafrosty –70° Celsius, requiring special storage freezers and shipping containers.

A similar vaccine developed by Moderna and the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases also requires freezing. But it survives at a balmier –20° C, so can be kept in a standard freezer, and can even be stored at refrigerator temperatures for up to a month. 

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9 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

Looks like joining the SEC has gotten us back into the top 10!

image.thumb.png.0be82111793cb0aebf7c83653c8a480a.png

That’s insane.  Given the likelihood that only a small % of cases are being reported, this thing is absolutely tearing through LA and FL.   Upside continues to be that the wave should crest pretty fast compared to the previous waves.  But damn this shit is crazy.

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4 hours ago, utee94 said:

Perhaps not. I was looking through the APH data from KXAN you linked earlier, and found this:

image.thumb.png.b23c0d6ce2077dd5ae6b3fc86085558a.png

 

390/530 (74%) admissions were from Travis and Williamson.

 

https://www.kxan.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/40/2021/08/APH-COVID-19-Briefing-TCCC-8-3-21.pdf

 

 

 

There are plenty of unvaccinated idiots in Travis and Williamson county. 

Per capita there are undisputedly more unvaccinated idiots in the rural surrounding counties which is why they per capita are undisputedly and unnecessarily taking up more hospital beds in Travis county. 

 

Edited by JimmyJames
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Welp yet another bad day for Travis County with 527 cases today (there were 273 this date last year).

477 people hospitalized and 91 admits (most since Jan 19th). This is just shitty. No perfuming this pig and it was completely avoidable.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
Cases 8/4 vs 8/3 2 50 67 134 131 58 47 24 11 3 527
% of Daily Change 0.38% 9.49% 12.71% 25.43% 24.86% 11.01% 8.92% 4.55% 2.09% 0.57%  
% of Total Cases 0.63% 4.46% 10.71% 26.03% 20.78% 14.81% 11.01% 6.42% 3.12% 2.01%  
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6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Could we possibly see less deaths this time around because of vaccines? Or are more unvaccinated making up the gap?

That’s been case thus far. Primarily led by fact that cases are skewing younger. This has been a surge of cases though so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds. 

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Here is a great and simple test to tell if you really need to go to ER even with Covid. If you have covid shortness of breath is common with exertion, but if you get out of breath talking then you need to go in. Otherwise there’s not much that they’ll do for you. 

A real doctor would recommend getting a cheap pulse monitor and just looking at the numbers.
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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

That’s been case thus far. Primarily led by fact that cases are skewing younger. This has been a surge of cases though so it’ll be interesting to see if that holds. 

For now deaths will be less because the patients are younger. And *IF the numbers start to eventually go down again before the fall and winter we can avoid a catastrophic situation 

*IF.

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55 minutes ago, scottsins said:


A real doctor would recommend getting a cheap pulse monitor and just looking at the numbers.

If you want to buy one then that’s fine. Quantitative measures like oxygen saturation can be helpful but they have some limitations. You don’t know the patient’s baseline. Some people are chronically lower so they can tolerate a lower saturation than others. Numbers usually tell the full story but not always. 

On the other hand you can tell just by looking at someone if they’re in real respiratory distress. That’s why a qualitative measure like the one I described better fits the situation IMO. You don’t want to go to ER unless you really need to go. YMMV

It also eliminates people fretting over their monitors and thinking “he said to call him if it went this low, it’s not there yet but it dropped by 3 this hour, I better just call and check”. Then you get called and have to talk through it again and provide reassurance. You want good communication that keeps you from unnecessarily called. And that’s how you can tell I’m a real doctor. 

Edited by Muy Frio
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12 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

That’s insane.  Given the likelihood that only a small % of cases are being reported, this thing is absolutely tearing through LA and FL.   Upside continues to be that the wave should crest pretty fast compared to the previous waves.  But damn this shit is crazy.

I’ve been keeping an eye on Missouri and Arkansas to see when their wave crests as they’re a couple of weeks ahead of us. Florida might be a better indicator but their reporting sucks. They do report daily numbers but only update county #s once per week. 

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The NYTimes chart on Texas. 

Bad news:

  • we've surpassed last summer's case count and there is no indication that we won't surpass the winter highs.
  • hospitalizations are drastically rising. 

good news (so far)

  • deaths have only slightly bumped up but we're all aware that there's a cycle and increased death is at the end. I hope we break this cycle but I'm not confident about that especially if COVID hits communities with higher than average comorbidities.

side note: Washpo picked up on the Dickinson councilmember that died. It's really scary that he went from anti-vax comments to hospitalization to death in 5 days. From pictures, the guy was extremely overweight which could be the worst comorbidity.

 

Capture - Copy.JPG

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19 minutes ago, Muy Frio said:

This thread is from a couple weeks ago. Long, has some good thoughts IMO. 
 

 

uhhh thats funny. i am not saying he is wrong about anything but this kid is the son of one of our friends. he is a brilliant person (plan II / EE) but is a consultant that works on SW/EE stuff. He is not a doctor or have an expertise in pandemics or vaccines. Again, Im not saying he is wrong about anything, just good to have context when considering sources.

 

 

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