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So, am I getting another $3900 check? Should I?


Wulaw Horn

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1 hour ago, SaucyJack said:

The Census is self-identification.  Hispanic isn't a race.  White is a race.

Your straying from the original premise.

The U.S. government stopped classifying Mexicans as white despite the fact that they self-identified as white and instead used the term Mexican. The Hispanic option didn't show up until much later. By that point Mexican-Americans mostly stopped self-identifying as white. Now we have the term White-Hispanic due to the history of the U.S. government denying Mexican whiteness.

If your only point is race and ethnicity are not the same, well no shit.

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

You want to have the most efficient stimulus, how about you give every person with a legitimate social security number (i.e. Legal Resident) over the age of 18 2,000 per month (backdated to March when shut down orders started) until the end of the year.  

You do not means test this (i.e. no income restriction).  You do not restrict it from someone if there is someone not legal living in the household (i.e. a spouse is not legal).  Everyone gets it.  Also, you do not tax this.  

Why?  Those of us who do not need the funds for basics will most likely do one of three things: (i) Pay down Debt quicker; (ii) donate the money to not for profits/worthy causes; (iii) invest.  Even if we spent it, it stimulates the economy.

For those that need it, this is a good lifeline.  It keeps you in your home, keeps you from getting underwater from circumstances outside of your control.

Of course, this makes too much fucking sense so Congress will not do it.

Truth. Economic solution. Orthodox. Understands the markets. 

 

Do we have any counter arguments to the "economic wisdom" of this solution? 

Quote

 

The weakening dollar is a little worrying in the short term. And the economic damage, thus far, is and will be cripplingly to more and more Americans. That is throwing long established economic flows out of sequence. And this persists and more widespread. This is "prevent deflation at all costs" section of the textbook." The invisible hand is more understandable than in the past and there are nudges in the toolbox that have been well used on the fiscal side. 

It is all about flow. We have tools to bleed off inflation. We don't have many tools for deflation other than big guns.

The Fed say this is a fiscal problem.

We have already spent trillions investing on the monetary side.

But our system is also dependent on income flows moving upward. We are slowing down significantly. It's the magnitude of the impact in terms of unemployment and lost production that is shaking around in the worry wall.  International Capital expects the US to take care of the American engine - they are depending on it when they accept dollars. That trust is waning. 

I don't think there is any safe haven under the dollar, but others will try to top it in the near future. Best for us to show that are capable of using modernity to solve these economic problems. Goodness know our competitors will. 

 

 

 

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Serious question, am I the only one on this board who would find the idea of observing wulaw horn and iconclast having dinner together to see what level of bizarre, insanely stupid shit they actually say to be worth spending $2,000 to make happen?

am I the only one who finds these two nuts to be utterly fascinating?

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11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

in the short term, its tough to get money to young people that have never filed before. We could obviously create a better system but the federal govt moves slow. 

 

The problem is is that it's not just young people that have never filed. It's anyone who didn't file last year and/or ANY "dependent" age 17 or older doesn't qualify. Think about that for a second. We're not just talking about those who are lazy and don't want to work at anything (I'll argue this number is lower than many people believe.) We're talking special needs, disabled and SSI recipients, grandparents that live in their children's homes and other forms of unpaid caregivers, common law wed couples who have kids (they'll get some but not all they should. Especially if one doesn't work), etc. 

There's a sizable population not receiving stimulus money that could really use it. Instead, we thumb our noses at these people because "well, it wasn't like they were contributing to the economy before..." BS. Everyone has a social security number. Most (pertaining to this topic) have some form of identification. You can start there and use tax filings to make sure you're getting money into the hands who need it. 

But yeah, the government moves slow and there will be people in the position to make it happen, not, because reasons. 

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6 hours ago, sidis said:

Serious question, am I the only one on this board who would find the idea of observing wulaw horn and iconclast having dinner together to see what level of bizarre, insanely stupid shit they actually say to be worth spending $2,000 to make happen?

am I the only one who finds these two nuts to be utterly fascinating?

we have the podcast.

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6 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Remember, Col. K said no stabbing . . . dammit. 

I love that movie.

Wulaw asked a good question about the economics of the fiscal response needed. 

No, that’s fair enough...I mean, it is not really much of a question for anyone who understands the basics of M2, deflationary stabilization, the need to preserve credit availability, as well as anyone who has observed the success of requisite social spending thus far in this external shock crisis of keeping more fundamental elements of the economy from collapsing.  but his posting style and particular perspective on virtually everything are so fascinating and amusing. As are icono’s. 

41 minutes ago, immamac said:

we have the podcast.

Please make it happen. Has to be organic though. 

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Serious question, am I the only one on this board who would find the idea of observing wulaw horn and iconclast having dinner together to see what level of bizarre, insanely stupid shit they actually say to be worth spending $2,000 to make happen?
am I the only one who finds these two nuts to be utterly fascinating?


Jesus, what did Wulaw ever do to you? No one should be subjected to sitting down for dinner with Icono, even if the $2,000 went directly into their pocket.
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8 hours ago, sidis said:

Serious question, am I the only one on this board who would find the idea of observing wulaw horn and iconclast having dinner together to see what level of bizarre, insanely stupid shit they actually say to be worth spending $2,000 to make happen?

am I the only one who finds these two nuts to be utterly fascinating?

Wulaw means well. He is like Lenny from Of Mice and Men with a higher ceiling.  Icono has some kind of very dark hole in his soul. Completely different animals.

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2 hours ago, BigHorn'13 said:

The problem is is that it's not just young people that have never filed. It's anyone who didn't file last year and/or ANY "dependent" age 17 or older doesn't qualify. Think about that for a second. We're not just talking about those who are lazy and don't want to work at anything (I'll argue this number is lower than many people believe.) We're talking special needs, disabled and SSI recipients, grandparents that live in their children's homes and other forms of unpaid caregivers, common law wed couples who have kids (they'll get some but not all they should. Especially if one doesn't work), etc. 

There's a sizable population not receiving stimulus money that could really use it. Instead, we thumb our noses at these people because "well, it wasn't like they were contributing to the economy before..." BS. Everyone has a social security number. Most (pertaining to this topic) have some form of identification. You can start there and use tax filings to make sure you're getting money into the hands who need it. 

But yeah, the government moves slow and there will be people in the position to make it happen, not, because reasons. 

It has nothing to do with people that "don't contribute to the economy." I agree those people need the most help.

Regardless people need to file with the IRS every year.  Failing to file leads to problems down the road. If you have people in your life that cannot file on their own, reach out to them to see if you can help them file. If they have low or 0 income, it's not difficult. I believe it's even free to file online when your income falls below a certain point.

In many emergencies, people get screwed on assistance because they've decided in the recent past to not file their 1040EZ. This can also hurt them when they under-report their income. I remember in the BP oil spill, there were some shrimpers that didn't get their fair share of help because they have elected to under-report their income for years. They deal in cash transactions.Their past bad behavior led to them receiving less help later on. I feel for them but do the right thing. This situation happens to people in floods, hurricanes, etc. FEMA won't give certain types of aid unless you can adequately proof your income. 1040 and W-2 are the gold standard.

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31 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Regardless people need to file with the IRS every year. 

To my understanding, you don't file (as in, you can't) if you earn less than 10k or something. If I'm wrong, please enlighten me. 

And regardless, dependents don't file taxes individually so I'm not sure how this would qualify them for stimulus. 

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18 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

To my understanding, you don't file (as in, you can't) if you earn less than 10k or something. If I'm wrong, please enlighten me. 

And regardless, dependents don't file taxes individually so I'm not sure how this would qualify them for stimulus. 

According to TurboTax, there is a low threshold in which you don't have to file, but there isn't a roadblock to doing so. turbotax indicates you should file anyway. 

Quote

Smart Money writer Bill Bischoff advises that if you have deductions or credits carrying over, you can't claim them if you have no income, but you need to file your taxes to claim them in a future year when you do have income

Quote

The IRS operates under a statute of limitations when it comes to auditing old tax returns.

If you've reported your information accurately, in most cases they can only go back three years. However, the clock only starts for a given year when you actually file your tax return.

If you don't file, the IRS can always come back and audit you. For this reason, the IRS recommends that even if you don't file, you still keep any relevant financial records indefinitely.

news you can use. If you fail to file, they can audit you at any point in the future. no statute of limitations.

not too mention that people that failed to file in 2018 or 2019, have probably struggled to get their stimulus check. Or at a minimum they had to file out online forms to get help. The people that filed in 2018 or 19 had it much easier.

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27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Dependents 16 and younger DO quality for stimulus.

Yes we were talking about those over 17

16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

According to TurboTax, there is a low threshold in which you don't have to file, but there isn't a roadblock to doing so. turbotax indicates you should file anyway. 

news you can use. If you fail to file, they can audit you at any point in the future. no statute of limitations.

not too mention that people that failed to file in 2018 or 2019, have probably struggled to get their stimulus check. Or at a minimum they had to file out online forms to get help. The people that filed in 2018 or 19 had it much easier.

Huh. Did not know. Thanks!

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4 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Wulaw means well. He is like Lenny from Of Mice and Men with a higher ceiling.  Icono has some kind of very dark hole in his soul. Completely different animals.

Valedictorian, national merit scholar and 3 year graduate from UT and then top 20 law school. Yeah dude- my resume is totally Lenny from of mice and men. Right. 

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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Sounds like something Lenny would say

Show me the fucking rabbits. 
Look, I’ve been called all sorts of things in real life. I’ve copped to being fat. Even posted pictures of myself on here. 
I can be a bit short tempered. I can be arrogant. I can be a bit of a prick. We could go on and on about ways I fail to live up to what I’m called to be, in every day and every way. 
But I promise you, stupid is not a failing of mine. Either book smarts or practical accomplishments. 

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18 minutes ago, Covri said:

Counterpoint you drove an RV into a bridge. 😂

Sure. And I own that. Which I do everything in my life. Totally transparent. And I said- a million times, seemingly every day... I’m an idiot. But that’s a different thing than Lenny. 

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Show me the fucking rabbits. 
Look, I’ve been called all sorts of things in real life. I’ve copped to being fat. Even posted pictures of myself on here. 
I can be a bit short tempered. I can be arrogant. I can be a bit of a prick. We could go on and on about ways I fail to live up to what I’m called to be, in every day and every way. 
But I promise you, stupid is not a failing of mine. Either book smarts or practical accomplishments. 


It’s ok scro, a lot of tards lead kick ass lives.
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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. And I own that. Which I do everything in my life. Totally transparent. And I said- a million times, seemingly every day... I’m an idiot.

this is precisely what i am talking about...this is why you and icono just choppin' it up over a little dinner and some quality wine (no meth unless you want icono sucking your dick - no judgment if you do) would be fucking priceless.  you're both oversharing goobers.  you're a totally nice person, wulaw.  you are genuine.  no one doubts that.  it is an admirable quality.  but you are also kind of funny in an unintentional way.  it's charming.  it makes you much more likable (if not a bit insufferable) than most of us dickheads who aren't quite so transparent about our lives and our failings.  similarly, icono once admitted to getting caught up in some sort of drug-fueled, homsexual abuse ring of some sort.  now he immodestly overshares about the minutia of whatever bullshit he heard that morning at his church which he is absolutely convinced is the only objective, spiritual truth in this universe.  to your credit, you don't openly fantasize about murdering poor people for attempting to migrate from another country to the united states via sniper rifle like icono...and you wouldn't forget how his past (and present) failings greatly exceed those of the people he judges so severely.

it is like neither of you are capable of lying, while at the same time, are incapable of not oversharing.  that's why it would be nutty and entertaining to turn the two of you loose on each other.

on the other hand, it is also somewhat likely i suppose that you are each pretty fucking autistic.  in which case i am deservedly biding my time until damnation to either your's or icono's definitive and overly-certain version of hell.

either way, yes, if you have had the type of income you claim over the last few years, the proper economic policy is to provide some sense of credit security to "you" in order to hold together what fragile sense of confidence "you" currently have in hopes of staving off the depression era economic outcomes that would otherwise be inevitable without it.  knowing that you are going to piss it away on moon pies to chug while boondocking in walmart parking lots is really inconsequential...that's kind of what we as economists want you to do, though it would be nice if you would occasionally buy some shit from other stores...possibly even small businesses.

Look at the following data series measuring the velocity of M2 money stock and evaluate for yourself what has happened to it in 2020. 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

the velocity is the "movement" of money - how many times it changes hands effectively which is a good measure of macroeconomic "activity" and/or "energy."  as you can see, since 1960 (including stagflation of the late 1970's and the financial crisis), we have never been anywhere near the tightness of that movement.  honestly, i could never imagine a non-depression scenario in which M2 velocity moved as low as 1.09.  i suspect even our resident monetary misanthropes like @bernorangeand @washparkhorn couldn't have even imagined that. think about the macroeconomic implications of that.  once you fully understood that and once one moves past the stupidity of the "incentive" argument made by people with questionable motives, there is very little economic rationale opposing dropping it from helicopters in this particular moment.  it would just be nice if republican governments would stop being fiscally irresponsible in more prosperous times in order to make the toolsets needed to cope with these exogenous shocks more effective.

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10 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

And let his SIL live in his kitchen in a previous life.

That’s the one that became a lesbian. 
her daughter is living in my house now and taking care of it and paying nominal rent. her daughter (my niece) is amazing. That’s the real reason we alowed SIL to live in the kitchen so long. So that our niece could have her own room and finish out her senior year of high school in the district/in her school. That was painful though. I’d almost forgotten. 

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9 hours ago, sidis said:

this is precisely what i am talking about...this is why you and icono just choppin' it up over a little dinner and some quality wine (no meth unless you want icono sucking your dick - no judgment if you do) would be fucking priceless.  you're both oversharing goobers.  you're a totally nice person, wulaw.  you are genuine.  no one doubts that.  it is an admirable quality.  but you are also kind of funny in an unintentional way.  it's charming.  it makes you much more likable (if not a bit insufferable) than most of us dickheads who aren't quite so transparent about our lives and our failings.  similarly, icono once admitted to getting caught up in some sort of drug-fueled, homsexual abuse ring of some sort.  now he immodestly overshares about the minutia of whatever bullshit he heard that morning at his church which he is absolutely convinced is the only objective, spiritual truth in this universe.  to your credit, you don't openly fantasize about murdering poor people for attempting to migrate from another country to the united states via sniper rifle like icono...and you wouldn't forget how his past (and present) failings greatly exceed those of the people he judges so severely.

it is like neither of you are capable of lying, while at the same time, are incapable of not oversharing.  that's why it would be nutty and entertaining to turn the two of you loose on each other.

on the other hand, it is also somewhat likely i suppose that you are each pretty fucking autistic.  in which case i am deservedly biding my time until damnation to either your's or icono's definitive and overly-certain version of hell.

either way, yes, if you have had the type of income you claim over the last few years, the proper economic policy is to provide some sense of credit security to "you" in order to hold together what fragile sense of confidence "you" currently have in hopes of staving off the depression era economic outcomes that would otherwise be inevitable without it.  knowing that you are going to piss it away on moon pies to chug while boondocking in walmart parking lots is really inconsequential...that's kind of what we as economists want you to do, though it would be nice if you would occasionally buy some shit from other stores...possibly even small businesses.

Look at the following data series measuring the velocity of M2 money stock and evaluate for yourself what has happened to it in 2020. 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

the velocity is the "movement" of money - how many times it changes hands effectively which is a good measure of macroeconomic "activity" and/or "energy."  as you can see, since 1960 (including stagflation of the late 1970's and the financial crisis), we have never been anywhere near the tightness of that movement.  honestly, i could never imagine a non-depression scenario in which M2 velocity moved as low as 1.09.  i suspect even our resident monetary misanthropes like @bernorangeand @washparkhorn couldn't have even imagined that. think about the macroeconomic implications of that.  once you fully understood that and once one moves past the stupidity of the "incentive" argument made by people with questionable motives, there is very little economic rationale opposing dropping it from helicopters in this particular moment.  it would just be nice if republican governments would stop being fiscally irresponsible in more prosperous times in order to make the toolsets needed to cope with these exogenous shocks more effective.

That’s a lot of words to say- I agree with you Wulaw and ps- I’m also sort of an asshole. 


Also, Icono is good people I think- he’s just trying to figure out how to make it in the world. He gets there, someday, I bet. 


As for Autistic I don’t think so- but I’ve dubbed myself spectrum adjacent. 

I took a 50 question test online (pretty reputable place) and the gist was 35 or over go see someone because you are definitely autistic, 31-35 you should probably go see someone bc you are probably on the spectrum but let a professional handle it, 0-29 you are normal. 


I got a 29. I told my wife- look at this- I’m not autistic but I’m as close as you can get without being (our son was diagnosed Aspy so I read a shit ton of books and articles and everything I could get my hands on) and she said- huh- I guess that makes sense- I’d always assumed you were on the spectrum except for the part where you aren’t weird like them, so good to know. 

Son was later diagnosed not Aspy by a heads shrinker and I tend to agree with the not mod than the is diagnosis from everything I’ve now extensively read on the subject. Of course, going out and buying 10  books the day of diagnosis is apparently the kind of thing an autistic pessimist would do- but I just think it’s good parenting. 

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s a lot of words to say- I agree with you Wulaw and ps- I’m also sort of an asshole. 


Also, Icono is good people I think- he’s just trying to figure out how to make it in the world. He gets there, someday, I bet. 


As for Autistic I don’t think so- but I’ve dubbed myself spectrum adjacent. 

I took a 50 question test online (pretty reputable place) and the gist was 35 or over go see someone because you are definitely autistic, 31-35 you should probably go see someone bc you are probably on the spectrum but let a professional handle it, 0-29 you are normal. 


I got a 29. I told my wife- look at this- I’m not autistic but I’m as close as you can get without being (our son was diagnosed Aspy so I read a shit ton of books and articles and everything I could get my hands on) and she said- huh- I guess that makes sense- I’d always assumed you were on the spectrum except for the part where you aren’t weird like them, so good to know. 

Son was later diagnosed not Aspy by a heads shrinker and I tend to agree with the not mod than the is diagnosis from everything I’ve now extensively read on the subject. Of course, going out and buying 10  books the day of diagnosis is apparently the kind of thing an autistic pessimist would do- but I just think it’s good parenting. 

case in point.  i couldn't have articulated it any better than the above if i tried.  you are a fascinating nut to observe.  the fact that you responded to continental's amusing post likening you to lennie small, a lovable, well-intentioned person with mental disability with such an earnest, full-throated defense of your curriculum vitae was another one... 

except for two things: 1) more than half the words were giving you an forthright reply to your op; and 2) icono being good people.  he's not.  he's the shallowest person i've ever encountered in real life or virtually (restaurants where people read the financial times and jewish women where high heels to brunch).  he is singularly driven by his envy and desire to gain the approval/fit in with people who despise him.  he is emotionally stunted and lacks any capacity for empathy whatsoever.  his responses to virtually any stimuli are almost always extreme and bordering on dangerous.  he's easily capable of being manipulated into doing extremely minacious things thoughtlessly.

that said, i am in for some fundraising cash to the site if you and he want to appear on immamac's podcast and wax poetic about whatever comes to your minds, fueled with a little booze.  i know now is not a great time for you since you are rv'ing across the country with no rv but perhaps afterwards.

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35 minutes ago, sidis said:

case in point.  i couldn't have articulated it any better than the above if i tried.  you are a fascinating nut to observe.  the fact that you responded to continental's amusing post likening you to lennie small, a lovable, well-intentioned person with mental disability with such an earnest, full-throated defense of your curriculum vitae was another one... 

except for two things: 1) more than half the words were giving you an forthright reply to your op; and 2) icono being good people.  he's not.  he's the shallowest person i've ever encountered in real life or virtually (restaurants where people read the financial times and jewish women where high heels to brunch).  he is singularly driven by his envy and desire to gain the approval/fit in with people who despise him.  he is emotionally stunted and lacks any capacity for empathy whatsoever.  his responses to virtually any stimuli are almost always extreme and bordering on dangerous.  he's easily capable of being manipulated into doing extremely minacious things thoughtlessly.

that said, i am in for some fundraising cash to the site if you and he want to appear on immamac's podcast and wax poetic about whatever comes to your minds, fueled with a little booze.  i know now is not a great time for you since you are rv'ing across the country with no rv but perhaps afterwards.

Autism isn’t a mental disability is the point. All your aspy’s are highly intelligent- brain and thought process is just wired a little differently- and there’s not empathy present- but the lack of that isn’t the same as a sociopath for example- it’s just different and really fascinating.  Lenny wasn’t an autistic (neither am I but as I said- far edge of normal) but rather he was MR. 

As I said- I think Icono is working on himself to become a better person- and I think he will get there. I could be wrong but we can just agree to disagree on that- that’s not a hill I’m going to die on. I am, however, willing to die on hill team Derka- I think he’s a good dude that gets needlessly shit on around here. 

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2 hours ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

How does one become a lesbian?

I mean no harm by this statement. I don’t actually believe she is one, but she went from heterosexual for 25 years to woman on woman sex for the last 2 or 3. Don’t know how to phrase that or what to do with it. 

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15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean no harm by this statement. I don’t actually believe she is one, but she went from heterosexual for 25 years to woman on woman sex for the last 2 or 3. Don’t know how to phrase that or what to do with it. 

Step one: put down the shovel.

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2 hours ago, softlynow said:

Step one: put down the shovel.

What shovel. She posted on Facebook something the other day about how maybe I’m not sexually attracted to someone but she makes me smile and laugh and picks up the check and isn’t that good enough. Her first wife she had sex with 3 times in a year and half. 
that doesn’t scream lesbian to me after 25 years as a heterosexual but whatevs. 

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean no harm by this statement. I don’t actually believe she is one, but she went from heterosexual for 25 years to woman on woman sex for the last 2 or 3. Don’t know how to phrase that or what to do with it. 

Huh.  Did she claim that she was straight all that time and just turned gay one day? I'm not sure what to do with the idea of a woman who claims she is a lesbian and has sex with women isn't truly a lesbian.  Why doesn't she qualify in your eyes?

By the way, was not intending to be accusatory in my original question in case it came off that way.  If I got offended everyone tried to have a conversation about gay people and accidentally said things that could be offensive even though it's clear that's not what they meant, I would've had to leave here a long long time ago.  My questions above are earnest.

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27 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Huh.  Did she claim that she was straight all that time and just turned gay one day? I'm not sure what to do with the idea of a woman who claims she is a lesbian and has sex with women isn't truly a lesbian.  Why doesn't she qualify in your eyes?

By the way, was not intending to be accusatory in my original question in case it came off that way.  If I got offended everyone tried to have a conversation about gay people and accidentally said things that could be offensive even though it's clear that's not what they meant, I would've had to leave here a long long time ago.  My questions above are earnest.

No problem. 
I think she’s an opportunist more than anything and if a good looking cowboy with some money came after her she’s be straight in 2 seconds. 

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21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm gonna go way out on a limb and suggest that someone who is OK with having sex with both men and women might . . . might . . . be bisexual.

What if you are doing it very rarely and it’s bc you are financially taken care of?  What then?  

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14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What if you are doing it very rarely and it’s bc you are financially taken care of?  What then?  

I'm not familiar with the particular story y'all are referencing, but I'm pretty sure Kinsey taught us that pure straight and pure gay are not likely to set aside their preferences for any amount of money.  It's a sliding scale.

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